Mafia Round 6 (Town Wins!)

[c-square]

Sounds good to me i am akai and beastly said he trusted me but he never followed me so i am still confused about his reasons for doing so.

Great.  I've updated the list:

Declared Townspeople
Xpon -> Kogoro
Ctu -> Makoto
Beastly -> Sherry
Xcommando -> Akai
c-square -> Okiya
Akonyl -> Satou-san
Schillok -> Agasa

Unknown
Kleene Onigiri -> ?
bluekaitou1412 -> ?
nomemory -> ?
Holmes -> ?
Callid -> ?
blurfbreg -> ?
pofa -> ?
Sebolains -> ?
Chekhov MacGuffin -> ?

[Callid]

C-square, that doesn't work. There are certain characters who cannot tell their role, because they would get killed. For example, Araide can never tell his role, as, even although Makoto etc. would protect him, he would instantly be sniped. Therefore your list will contain everyone, except the most vital town roles and the BO. The BO has probably also thought so far and now imagine your list were complete - the BO knows who of the remaining is BO, and therefore they'll now target simply anyone beside them who's not on the list - said vital roles. Therefore the BO will be able to easily take down the strongest townies in an instant. You, on the other hand, cannot tell the BO and the vital roles apart, and have to lynch into the dark, perhaps killing a vital townie. Great work. Helps the BO a lot.
Of course, nothing speaks against a secret list like the ones I do every round.

My reasoning above is also while I will not tell my role. If I were a vital townie, I wouldn't tell it because the BO would target me. If I were BO, I wouldn't tell it for obvious reasons. And if I were a weak townie, I wouldn't tell it either, because if I did, it would lead to the scenario I described above. Also, I have already told my role to one of the people with a role on your initial list, but I said so before.

Sorry for my spelling mistakes, I'm not at home and therefore I have no spell checker 

[Akonyl]

For example, Araide can never tell his role, as, even although Makoto etc. would protect him, he would instantly be sniped.

Though I'm dead, I would like to point out that this isn't entirely true, as Araide can simply heal himself every night to become unkillable (as sniping only ignores protection, not doctor healing). So he can feel free to say who he is, as long as he doesn't want to heal anyone other than himself.

[c-square]

For example, Araide can never tell his role, as, even although Makoto etc. would protect him, he would instantly be sniped.

Though I'm dead, I would like to point out that this isn't entirely true, as Araide can simply heal himself every night to become unkillable (as sniping only ignores protection, not doctor healing). So he can feel free to say who he is, as long as he doesn't want to heal anyone other than himself.

I agree.  Araide is also not that valuable a target.  Sure, he can heal, but he has to guess correctly who to protect to be of any worth.  His worth goes up as townies die, but at the beginning, getting rid of someone like Sherry is a much more important move.

C-square, that doesn't work. There are certain characters who cannot tell their role, because they would get killed. The BO has probably also thought so far and now imagine your list were complete - the BO knows who of the remaining is BO, and therefore they'll now target simply anyone beside them who's not on the list - said vital roles. Therefore the BO will be able to easily take down the strongest townies in an instant. You, on the other hand, cannot tell the BO and the vital roles apart, and have to lynch into the dark, perhaps killing a vital townie. Great work. Helps the BO a lot.

So you're saying that of the nine people yet to reveal their roles, some are townies with vital roles and some are BO.  And since the BO know who they are, they know who the vital townies are, and they're going target these vital townies.  So, how does it help us by them keeping their identities hidden when the BO already know who they are?  They're still at risk for being killed at night, and by keeping hidden, they're also at risk of being lynched.  If they come out and tell us who they are, they're less likely to be lynched by mistake, but also it makes it easier for us to identify who the BO are.

[Kleene Onigiri]

Well, last round I was Vermouth and found out most of the roles. And I noticed that you don't know who to kill first. Sherry, Police or a DB? Or maybe killing of the detective is better?
But even if the town get's to know all roles, you can't deduct who is BO and who isn't. You can just assume, that the last ones to post are most likely BO, but that doesn't have to be the case. So the town still needs to find out who they really are with their abilities. And like last round showed, I managed to hold people off for some rounds to get my role for 100%.
So the town needs time to figure things out, while the BO can kill blindly. But if they get to know the roles, they get an advantage too. But if they know all roles, they would most likely not go for the one that will most likely be protected/healed anyway.

So whether everyone tells their roles or if most roles are hidden, both have pros and cons for both sides. And even if you tell the people to tell their role, not everyone will listen anyway D:

[Callid]

You misunderstood me. I'm saying that if we continue like this, we'll get to a point were we have 6-7 left, with 4-5 BO and the remaining are vital townies. Therefore, you'll have ruled out two out of nine possible BOs, but the BO now knows for sure that the remaining two are important roles. Of course, they could post their role as well, but then the BO can freely choose if they should assume fake res, which ones or if they should choose roles already claimed. You won't get much from that - except if you go for the ones who posted last, but that won't work either, due to time zones and activity.
Concerning myself, I've told my role to Ctu already, whom you have on your list. You might ask him to confirm that I'm a townie. As I said, revealing my role openly would either make me a target or make others targets, which is why I choose to use a custodian (LEO translation).

Again, sorry for spelling.

[pofa]

The reason that Chekhov have a higher chance to be a BO than those guys:

Cause of no killing.

Try this everyone:

Araide healed Ctu<<< Dont know who
Ctu protects Beastly
C-SQUARE USING FIRST TO C-SQUARE

Well, first, let me tell you that if you investigate me using First Aid on myself, you will find out I didn't.  That's because I didn't use it on myself, I used it on Ctu.  I said I was using it on myself to make the BO think I would.  Then I could use it on Ctu instead without being too worried about being attacked myself.  So, investigate me using First Aid on Ctu, and you'll see I'm telling the truth.  You can also check to see that I asked if Vermouth was in the game.  If I were Bourbon, I would already know that and would have no reason to waste a night checking it out.

Second, as far as who to lynch, here are my thoughts.  I know Beastly is Sherry with 100% certainty.  And both xpon and Ctu knew I was not protected last night, and still I wasn't attacked.  That's evidence to me that they're trustworthy.  The only suspicious activity I have to go on is that Callid and BK1412 both voted for Holmes for the previous lynching with absolutely no evidence to go on.  That sounds like BO votes to me.

You might say that xpon and I did the same with our votes for nomemory, but if you think about it, which pair has been more open and honest here?  xpon and I have both come out and revealed our identities.  I've even given you a way to confirm that I'm telling the truth.  If we really were BO, it would be a huge risk to announce fake identities because someone else might already have those roles.  As you've seen, no one else has claimed to be Okiya.  That's because I am Okiya.

Callid and BK1412, on the other hand, have given no information as to who they are, or what they've been up to.  They've given us no way to test whether they're BO or not.  Unless they come out and be as forthcoming about who they are and what they've been up to as I have, my lynch vote is going for Callid. 

Are you guys aware that you can only investigate actions on the night that they take place? Nobody can check whether c-square used first aid on Ctu last night anymore.

I was Megure last game, and I got confused by this, too. If you want investigators to check you, you have to tell them what you're going to do tonight. Of course, that's a dangerous thing to do. 

Who are we lynching? There's no point in taking a chance on Chekhov if Haibara is tailing him.

We still don't have much to go on...as someone said before, bluekaitou and Callid decided to lynch Holmes out of pretty much nowhere. *shrug*

[c-square]

The reason that Chekhov have a higher chance to be a BO than those guys:

Cause of no killing.

Try this everyone:

Araide healed Ctu<<< Dont know who
Ctu protects Beastly
C-SQUARE USING FIRST TO C-SQUARE

Well, first, let me tell you that if you investigate me using First Aid on myself, you will find out I didn't.  That's because I didn't use it on myself, I used it on Ctu.  I said I was using it on myself to make the BO think I would.  Then I could use it on Ctu instead without being too worried about being attacked myself.  So, investigate me using First Aid on Ctu, and you'll see I'm telling the truth.  You can also check to see that I asked if Vermouth was in the game.  If I were Bourbon, I would already know that and would have no reason to waste a night checking it out.

Second, as far as who to lynch, here are my thoughts.  I know Beastly is Sherry with 100% certainty.  And both xpon and Ctu knew I was not protected last night, and still I wasn't attacked.  That's evidence to me that they're trustworthy.  The only suspicious activity I have to go on is that Callid and BK1412 both voted for Holmes for the previous lynching with absolutely no evidence to go on.  That sounds like BO votes to me.

You might say that xpon and I did the same with our votes for nomemory, but if you think about it, which pair has been more open and honest here?  xpon and I have both come out and revealed our identities.  I've even given you a way to confirm that I'm telling the truth.  If we really were BO, it would be a huge risk to announce fake identities because someone else might already have those roles.  As you've seen, no one else has claimed to be Okiya.  That's because I am Okiya.

Callid and BK1412, on the other hand, have given no information as to who they are, or what they've been up to.  They've given us no way to test whether they're BO or not.  Unless they come out and be as forthcoming about who they are and what they've been up to as I have, my lynch vote is going for Callid. 

Are you guys aware that you can only investigate actions on the night that they take place? Nobody can check whether c-square used first aid on Ctu last night anymore.

I was Megure last game, and I got confused by this, too. If you want investigators to check you, you have to tell them what you're going to do tonight. Of course, that's a dangerous thing to do. 

Who are we lynching? There's no point in taking a chance on Chekhov if Haibara is tailing him.

We still don't have much to go on...as someone said before, bluekaitou and Callid decided to lynch Holmes out of pretty much nowhere. *shrug*

I only have two seconds online, but I'll respond more later.  I'm voting for BK1412 because he decided to lynch Holmes for no reason, and he seemed disappointed that no one was killed at night.  If anyone agrees, feel free to vote with me.

[Callid]

We still don't have much to go on...as someone said before, bluekaitou and Callid decided to lynch Holmes out of pretty much nowhere. *shrug*

Why am I always accused of this? Yeah, it wasn't a wise decision, but I hadn't any information on whom to lynch at that time. And, as someone pointed out, a shot in the dark is better than no vote. And that actually even prooved true, as nobody was lynched. Also, if you see me as BO, what do you think about Ctu, who is confirming me?

Actually, did you notice that you are all the time accusing people who are posting a lot? Haven't you noticed that in the last games, all the people who posted actively were town? I'd go for the quiet ones, like nomemory or Sebolains (and I don't remember posts from blurfbreg, but I might have overlooked something). I think, considering that Beastly considers him suspicious I'll go for nomemory.

[bluekaitou1412]

We still don't have much to go on...as someone said before, bluekaitou and Callid decided to lynch Holmes out of pretty much nowhere. *shrug*

It is not "out of nowhere" as you would say.

[pofa]

We still don't have much to go on...as someone said before, bluekaitou and Callid decided to lynch Holmes out of pretty much nowhere. *shrug*

Why am I always accused of this? Yeah, it wasn't a wise decision, but I hadn't any information on whom to lynch at that time. And, as someone pointed out, a shot in the dark is better than no vote. And that actually even prooved true, as nobody was lynched. Also, if you see me as BO, what do you think about Ctu, who is confirming me?

Actually, did you notice that you are all the time accusing people who are posting a lot? Haven't you noticed that in the last games, all the people who posted actively were town? I'd go for the quiet ones, like nomemory or Sebolains (and I don't remember posts from blurfbreg, but I might have overlooked something). I think, considering that Beastly considers him suspicious I'll go for nomemory.

OK, fair point. But what I actually said was that shots in the dark are worse than no vote, since given the town: BO ratio, you're more likely to get a townie than a BO. And Beastly never gave a reason for suspecting nomemory other than "there's something funny about him." I actually have reason to trust him, as I told c-square when he tried to get him lynched yesterday for no reason (with the best of intentions, I'm sure).  ;)

[Callid]

We still don't have much to go on...as someone said before, bluekaitou and Callid decided to lynch Holmes out of pretty much nowhere. *shrug*

Why am I always accused of this? Yeah, it wasn't a wise decision, but I hadn't any information on whom to lynch at that time. And, as someone pointed out, a shot in the dark is better than no vote. And that actually even prooved true, as nobody was lynched. Also, if you see me as BO, what do you think about Ctu, who is confirming me?

Actually, did you notice that you are all the time accusing people who are posting a lot? Haven't you noticed that in the last games, all the people who posted actively were town? I'd go for the quiet ones, like nomemory or Sebolains (and I don't remember posts from blurfbreg, but I might have overlooked something). I think, considering that Beastly considers him suspicious I'll go for nomemory.

OK, fair point. But what I actually said was that shots in the dark are worse than no vote, since given the town: BO ratio, you're more likely to get a townie than a BO. And Beastly never gave a reason for suspecting nomemory other than "there's something funny about him." I actually have reason to trust him, as I told c-square when he tried to get him lynched yesterday for no reason (with the best of intentions, I'm sure). 

Yet it was pointed out that with no vote, the BO can decide the lynched. And therefore blind-voting is better, because it might get an BO, while BO-lynching won't.

[nomemory]

Being quiet isn't always a sign of being bo, it could also mean that you simply got nothing to say. But then again no it must be that the quiet ones are guilty, I say we lynch this nomemory now! Anyway I don't see the idea of talking a lot in the forums when I got nothing to contribute. Oh and beastlys reason for thinking I'm weird is also that I talk to little and that I haven't told anyone my identity, but I have done that to some people including beastly but I fail to see the greatness in going public.

[Callid]

Being quiet isn't always a sign of being bo, it could also mean that you simply got nothing to say. But then again no it must be that the quiet ones are guilty, I say we lynch this nomemory now! Anyway I don't see the idea of talking a lot in the forums when I got nothing to contribute. Oh and beastlys reason for thinking I'm weird is also that I talk to little and that I haven't told anyone my identity, but I have done that to some people including beastly but I fail to see the greatness in going public.

It's simply that we believe you're BO because you're afraid of saying anything and try to catch as few attention as possible. Just the opposite fron what I did. You try to stay in the shadows, and that's what all the BOs did in both games and manga. So you're much more suspicious.

[Callid]

BTW, nomemory, you haven't explained your lynching vote either. Why did you vote for me?