Espionage - Round 5 (Spy and Informants Win)

[Stopwatch]

dumytru, my focus on MoonRaven as an Informant was at least partly because he was on my list. Spy!Watch certainly isn't psychic.

I was going to mention me revealing my list first, but the Spy knows the Informant so.

Will check the rest of your info later because I don't buy it's down to two people.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

dumytru, my focus on MoonRaven as an Informant was at least partly because he was on my list. Spy!Watch certainly isn't psychic.

I was going to mention me revealing my list first, but the Spy knows the Informant so.

Will check the rest of your info later because I don't buy it's down to two people.

Same... I actually think we should try voting Fujiwara

[Fujiwara]

What is interesting now that we know that Togop was the second informant, is that it's very likely the spy ordered the informants to self-vote, seeing how Phantom indicated he would do so and Togop actually went through with it.

Personally, I think that's a very weird order, but it's possible that the spy expected the no-talking to happen and wanted to use this as a way to identify his informants. (Not the best way to go about it, seeing how he could simply tell them to identify themselves on Day 2, but it's the best explanation I can come up with.)

To the people thinking I'm suspicious: Just want to point out that I found Togop suspicious on Day 2 and voted him, though I'll admit that it doesn't fully exonerate me:

Now, about the self-vote as a signal from the informants in particular: I think that'd be a pretty bad signal for all the reasons Togop mentioned. If, however, the spy is a new player who didn't think about it overly much, I guess a signal like that is possible. The only reason I even mention this is because I find it slightly out of character for Togop to self-vote.

[Kleene Onigiri]

Thanks yuri for the summary post for Togop

What I find suspicious, is that SA accused Fujiwara early on, and Togop tried to defend Fujiwara. Considering Togop is the Informant, he could have tried to protect the spy. (obviously, I assume Fuji is the spy here )
Also, Fuji tried to make me suspisious, same with Togop (saying I tried to follow SA's strategy of "non-talking", although I never actually mentioned the non-talking strategy ever. I always talked about the FI)
And Fuji saying I'm not active much, although there are a lot of other people too that aren't so active in talking this time.

I do think Fuji is the spy :V

[Fujiwara]

I do think Fuji is the spy :V

It's ... unfortunate that you suspect me like that, so let me try to address your points.

What I find suspicious, is that SA accused Fujiwara early on, and Togop tried to defend Fujiwara. Considering Togop is the Informant, he could have tried to protect the spy. (obviously, I assume Fuji is the spy here )

A fair point, but I'd like to point out that last round, when Togop was the spy, he specifically ordered his informants to defend another player than him, so that if they were revealed as informants, people would suspect whomever they had defended instead of him.
I think this is an excellent strategy, so not only would I have ordered my informants to do the the same if I were the spy, but it's very likely that even if he didn't get that order from the spy, Togop would probably have implemented that idea again, considering he came up with the strategy in the first place. And, considering that you and Kleene seem to find me suspicious due to his defence of me, it looks like it was successful as well. XD

Also, Fuji tried to make me suspisious, same with Togop (saying I tried to follow SA's strategy of "non-talking", although I never actually mentioned the non-talking strategy ever. I always talked about the FI)

I wouldn't say I tried to make you suspicious, I specifically stated that it wasn't much of a lead, but that I found it worth mentioning. At no point did I incite anyone to vote for you. What's more, I'd already sent in my vote for you, but when you replied and explained why you were acting the way you were, I accepted that as a plausible explanation and changed my vote to MoonRaven. Which was unfortunate for a different reason, of course. :/

And Fuji saying I'm not active much, although there are a lot of other people too that aren't so active in talking this time.

It wasn't the inactivity itself, but rather that you were not as proactive as in previous rounds. And, as I said above, your reasons for that change in attitude allayed my suspicions.

[dumytru]

I say we should say who we'll vote for. We can't afford a tie.

I think it's more likely that either stop or jecka is the spy, but it looks like you're voting for fuji, so I'll vote for her as well to avoid a tie. And it's not like I don't suspect her at all.

[Fujiwara]

I'm rather sad that people aren't really discussing things right now - I'd like to know what the quiet people are currently thinking as well. Jex, Raifuu, Miyano, Rain - where are you?! Stop, what are your thoughts on the spy?

@dumy: I can't get you to reconsider? I realize that a tie would be really bad, but so far only 2 people have said they suspect me and I think the reasoning in my defence is rather solid.

I wish I had a good lead I could offer, but I'm at a bit of a loss myself. I'm almost beginning to think that I'm the spy myself. XD

[dumytru]

I'm rather sad that people aren't really discussing things right now - I'd like to know what the quiet people are currently thinking as well. Jex, Raifuu, Miyano, Rain - where are you?! Stop, what are your thoughts on the spy?

@dumy: I can't get you to reconsider? I realize that a tie would be really bad, but so far only 2 people have said they suspect me and I think the reasoning in my defence is rather solid.

I wish I had a good lead I could offer, but I'm at a bit of a loss myself. I'm almost beginning to think that I'm the spy myself. XD

As I said, I think it's more likely that Stop or Jecka is the Spy. So I'm more inclined to vote one of them.
I'll vote with the majority, as long as it's one of you three. At this point I want to avoid a tie.
We're in a pretty bad situation, since people aren't discussing.

But I want to ask everybody to say who they'll vote [obviously, to avoid a tie].

[Fujiwara]

As I said, I think it's more likely that Stop or Jecka is the Spy. So I'm more inclined to vote one of them.
I'll vote with the majority, as long as it's one of you three. At this point I want to avoid a tie.
We're in a pretty bad situation, since people aren't discussing.

What are your thoughts on the self-votes on day 1 I mentioned earlier? Togop self-voting and Phantom intending to self-vote, I mean. It seems like a weird order to me (if it was one). If we assume this was an order, I don't think it's something Stop (or you, for that matter) would do as a spy.

[Stopwatch]

Whatever the case, we cannot afford a tie. Fuji, you shouldn't even be suggesting that. If it was between a lynch on me and a tie I would say to lynch me because we've got nothing to lose and can't afford a phase where we find out no-one's alignment.

I have no opinions on the Spy. And I've spent half the day thinking and arguing about spoiler-related stuff so I really don't have the energy right now to argue that I'm not the Spy. My focus on MoonRaven as an Informant though is telling though, and I don't see why you refuse to consider that?

Nobody's posting anything at all?
We need to start discussing already.

There are 10 players left. That's a lot.
Well, we won't vote for Togop, because we know he's the #2 informant. There's not point to lynch him.

RainHeaven, Raifuujin, miyano_shino and Yuri are most probably not the Spy.
Here's the evidence.

I already said it, but that's the most likely. If you think I'm wrong, please say it now.
MoonRaven's FI cleared Kleene, Togop, Jellitto.

Thus, the spy must be one of: Fujiwara, dumytru, Stopwatch, Jecka.
Now, I know that I'm not the Spy, so there are only three suspects for me.
I think it's either Stopwatch or Jecka.

I think someone said something to Fuji's defence.
I really ahve to go now. I'll look later for that post (Fuji's defence).

I don't think that's enough to clear them.

The person who said something to Fuji's defense was Togop, I think. Y'know, the Informant? That means especially that nothing can be gleaned from it because you just get into too many "what if"s.

So that would be dumytru, Fujiwara, Stopwatch, Jecka, RainHeave- ah. So basically we have nothing utterly confirmed other than Kleene not being the Spy? She's going under the bus tonight most likely then :/.

[Fujiwara]

Have been trying to look for some clues and found the following:

Togop's votes:
Day 1: self-vote (possible order)
Day 2: Jelly
Day 3: Moon
Day 4: Moon

Connections:
Day 3: Jelly is killed (voted the previous day by Togop)
Day 4: Moon is lynched by Togop, Yuri and me (voted the previous day by Togop) [Maybe Stop was expected to vote her again]

My theory: Togop was pointing out Detective suspects using his votes. On day 3 the spy killed the suspected detective. On day 4 it looked like the suspected would be lynched anyway, so the spy decided to kill someone else and get the lynch of his choice 'for free.'

A few of us thought that Moon's paranoia resulted from a special role, but the spy and informant would have known that it could only be the detective role. I'm pretty sure Togop figured out that Moon is likely to be the detective and that his votes were indications for the spy. This makes Yuri Iwamoto look suspicious to me, though I realize that it makes me look suspicious for the same reasons. Thoughts?

My vote will go to Yuri for now, but I'm willing to negotiate.

[Fujiwara]

RM'ed, it seems.

Whatever the case, we cannot afford a tie. Fuji, you shouldn't even be suggesting that. If it was between a lynch on me and a tie I would say to lynch me because we've got nothing to lose and can't afford a phase where we find out no-one's alignment.

I wasn't suggesting that. I was saying that only 2 people had said they'd suspected me and that it was maybe too early to consider that the majority vote. And those two people hadn't even said anything after I defended myself.

[dumytru]

As I said, I think it's more likely that Stop or Jecka is the Spy. So I'm more inclined to vote one of them.
I'll vote with the majority, as long as it's one of you three. At this point I want to avoid a tie.
We're in a pretty bad situation, since people aren't discussing.

What are your thoughts on the self-votes on day 1 I mentioned earlier? Togop self-voting and Phantom intending to self-vote, I mean. It seems like a weird order to me (if it was one). If we assume this was an order, I don't think it's something Stop (or you, for that matter) would do as a spy.

It's possible, but I don't think that's the case. If I were the spy I'd order them to vote a certain person instead.
Even if I couldn't be sure who are the Informants, at least I would've narrowed them to only a few players.

Here's a question: if you were the informant and the order said "vote yourself" would you say that in the topic and then would you change your mind? [like PW did]

@Yuri, I just said that's the most likely scenario. We have only two days, so making such assumptions can bring us the victory.
Even if it's not 100% sure, it's better than nothing.

[dumytru]

My theory: Togop was pointing out Detective suspects using his votes. On day 3 the spy killed the suspected detective. On day 4 it looked like the suspected would be lynched anyway, so the spy decided to kill someone else and get the lynch of his choice 'for free.'

Haha- that's an nice theory.

This made me think of the fake investigation. He may be pointing to Detective suspects via FI as well.
As a proof, SA also died.
Maybe they went with the votes at first, but thought it was too obvious so they changed to FI (or a combination of those two)

My investigations have also supposedly cleared SA, MR, and yesterday also Fujiwara.

[Thanks Yuri for quoting Togop, it was easy to find them]

[Fujiwara]

It's possible, but I don't think that's the case. If I were the spy I'd order them to vote a certain person instead.
Even if I couldn't be sure who are the Informants, at least I would've narrowed them to only a few players.

Here's a question: if you were the informant and the order said "vote yourself" would you say that in the topic and then would you change your mind? [like PW did]

The thing is that it seemed really out-of-character of Togop to self-vote on day 1 and this made me entertain the possibility that he was an informant on Day 2. Here's my question: Would you intentionally self-vote on day 1 where people are likely to vote random and chances are it'll kill you?

To answer your question: I might actually. Phantom was really active on Day 1, so a self-vote couldn't have been put down to inactivity. Maybe he wanted to prevent arising suspicion by making his intentions clear beforehand. And when people told him that he was likely to die if he self-voted, he considered that he'd rather stay alive than follow the order. That's the scenario I'm thinking about.

It's possible, but I don't think that's the case. If I were the spy I'd order them to vote a certain person instead.

I don't consider it a very good order either. I wouldn't order sth. like this. And as mentioned in my earlier post, I didn't think you would do it either (which makes me think you're less likely to be the spy.) Same for Stop. The question is though: Can we be sure that no one would give such an order? In my opinion, the answer is no. Which might help us figure out who the spy is. That's why I brought the matter up in the first place.