Espionage - Round 5 (Spy and Informants Win)

[Fujiwara]

*suddenly feels very, very stupid for having changed her vote 3 minutes before phase change*

Should have gone to bed when I had the chance. Wow, that was unbelievably stupid of me.

My list:
1. Togop
2. Raifuujin
3. dumytru
4. PhantomWriter
5. Stopwatch
6. Kleene Onigiri
7. MoonRaven

So sorry, MoonRaven. I have no excuse, because I should have known better. Your extensive post actually reminded me of a post I made in round 2 when I was detective. I guess we all deduced correctly that your paranoia indicated a special role, but that's no excuse.

[Stopwatch]

shit...
sorry raven D:
why didn't you say more ;-;

List, Yuri.

EDIT: Sorry, the "new post" function took me straight to this post so I hadn't realised you had already done so.

Fuji, your turn.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

sorry for double post RM :x, but I'm posting the list of players so we can stripe off names as suspects

01. shinichi'sapprentice (Civilian)
02. Yuri Iwamoto 2
03. Fujiwara 2
04. Jellitto (Civilian)
05. miyano_shiho 2
06. dumytru 1
07. RoboG55 (Civilian)
08. Stopwatch 2
09. PhantomWriter (Informant)
10. Jecka 2
11. MoonRaven (Detective)
12. Kleene Onigiri 3
13. Raifuujin 2
14. Togop 6
15. RainHeaven 1

Keep in mind this means I'm looking at lists posted people. There could be a liar posting a list as well... (we could figure out who is everyone posts lists tho)

[Fujiwara]

Not sure what you're doing there, Yuri. Only 2 people are excluded from being the spy via MoonRaven's investigation: Togop and Kleene. The lists can only help us figure out the remaining informant.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

or figure out who is not included, Fuji.
you forget the spy is no longer on lists, I am figuring out who is. Thus far it seems this way we have a suspect for the informant who was on all three lists (because they have to be included)

That only means that if we collect more lists and figure out who is least mentioned we have our suspect for being spy.

Anyway, Togop, what do you have to say for yourself?

[Fujiwara]

or figure out who is not included, Fuji.
you forget the spy is no longer on lists, I am figuring out who is. Thus far it seems this way we have a suspect for the informant who was on all three lists (because they have to be included)

That only means that if we collect more lists and figure out who is least mentioned we have our suspect for being spy.

The spy has the same chance of appearing on the lists as any civilian. The whole point of the rule-change was that the lists won't help us figure out who the spy is.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Hmm, you are right...
I misread the contents of the list thingy.

Anyway, now we have an idea who the informant is we might figure out who the spy is, still by asking for lists.
It might not mean much if we count, but it gives us an overview of who could be lying.

As of now we have two days left to find the spy, better a tactic than no tactic, right?

[RainHeaven]

Here is my list:

Your list:
1. Fujiwara
2. Jellitto
3. Togop
4. MoonRaven
5. PhantomWriter
6. Jecka
7. RoboG55

From what I am seeing, Togop has appeared on every list so far and the it has been stated that atleast two informants are on every list.

[Jecka]

D: it was first game jitters.
Also, I got really busy just before phase change and I forgot to send a vote :x
Hold on a min I'll get my list on here

1. Yuri Iwamoto
2. MoonRaven
3. PhantomWriter
4. Togop
5. Fujiwara
6. miyano_shiho
7. shinichi'sapprentice

[Kleene Onigiri]

Nooo! Detective ;_;

Here is my list:

Your list:
1. Jecka
2. RoboG55
3. Togop
4. RainHeaven
5. MoonRaven
6. Stopwatch
7. PhantomWriter


If I look at the lists, it seems Togop is the informant?

[MoonRaven]

So I died... Good luck people, then. I hope you'll catch the spy. *goes to read the result of last investigation*

[dumytru]

1. shinichi'sapprentice
2. MoonRaven
3. Togop
4. PhantomWriter
5. Jellitto
6. Kleene Onigiri
7. RoboG55

Edit:

Oh. It's obvious that Togop is the Informant.
So Togop, I know this is a weird question (but that's not the point), won't you tell us the name of the Spy?

PS: SA, I decided I'll do the final poster. I couldn't do it daily for two reasons: you were doing a good job and I couldn't update it at the phase change (at least 7 hours would have passed). I'll also add Togop's and googleearth's images in there.

[dumytru]

Nobody's posting anything at all?
We need to start discussing already.

There are 10 players left. That's a lot.
Well, we won't vote for Togop, because we know he's the #2 informant. There's not point to lynch him.

RainHeaven, Raifuujin, miyano_shino and Yuri are most probably not the Spy.
Here's the evidence.

I already said it, but that's the most likely. If you think I'm wrong, please say it now.
MoonRaven's FI cleared Kleene, Togop, Jellitto.

Thus, the spy must be one of: Fujiwara, dumytru, Stopwatch, Jecka.
Now, I know that I'm not the Spy, so there are only three suspects for me.
I think it's either Stopwatch or Jecka.

I think someone said something to Fuji's defence.
I really ahve to go now. I'll look later for that post (Fuji's defence).

[Iwamoto Yuri]

*quotes everything Togop said*

The idea of fake investigate was that everyone posts results from investiagte. The detective posts real results, while everyone else makes something up. Since the detective is in everyone's list, civillians have strong leads to decide which investigate results to believe and which not to believe. The spy/informants - wouldn't.

This round, however, the informants are also on everyone's lists. Thus civillians would have just as good a reason to believe the informants' fake investigate results as to believe the detective's investigate results. As such, I need to think a bit before I can say if such a strategy would be useful this round.

Back to studying for finals. Will post later.

OK, surprising drop in activity here compared to the prep phase
Usually the prep phase is more active...
Anyway, thinking about the fake investigate more, assuming everyone post one set of random investigate results per day, on average one person will be outed as non-detective per day by way of clearing the spy. Considering that, in exchange, we only get hints about one non-spy per day, but no certainty, I don't think it's worth it (even though the detective has control over the non-spy). If the results aren't random, but are selected to have a different non-spy, then we'll consistently have one person outed as non-detective. If, instead, many people select the same non-spy, then we'll have less frequently a bunch of people outed as non-detective. I don't see an obvious way to fix that.

Anyway, I have one hour to learn modern physics so that's all from me for now

"Ditch Day 1" ...it worked...?! xDD

*after 13 hours...* -_-

alright,.. Let's get to work!

i nominate Fujiwara to be voted Day 2. you guys don't have to provide reasons if you want to have another candidate for the lynch. buttttt, give a damn good reason on why you are voting for whoever person you're voting. i have my reasons. but i choose to disclose it after i see a good number of discussions from you all. Let's do this!

SA, you're kinda strange kinda here. Not that I think you're the spy, just that I don't remember you suspecting someone on solid grounds but refusing to explain before.

I think I may have an idea of what you're doing, and while I'd abstain from telling everyone what I think it is just in case, I'd tell you "Don't. It's too obvious."

i am not refusing to explain. i said...

... but i choose to disclose it after i see a good number of discussions from you all...

and oh, what's with the self-vote? is that an order from the spy?

No. I just didn't have anyone to vote for. Besides, an order for informants to self-vote doesn't make sense because it both increases the chances for the informant to get lynched, limits their actions, and considering how many self-votes happened day 1 in some previous games, it's likely to fail to identify the informant anyway.

Anyway, guess I'll go along with what I think you have in mind (though I think you should stop) even if it's too transperant to work.
Anyway, about Fujiwara, so far he voted for Kleene. Kleene, along with Raifuujin, voted for Jellitto.
Kleene day 1 said she'd do SA's strategy (I believe referring to the no-post), but posting itself ruins the strategy the goal of which was not to let the informants identify. This makes me wonder if she's informant, or just wanted to post yet not post anything substantial.
Fujiwara... I don't want to lynch her yet, despite the reasons I suspect you have, as she'd be valuable to civillians if she's one.

Fujiwara, what did I do to deserve your vote?

Anyway, since we're starting fake investigates:
Day 1: Fujiwara, Dumytru, shinichi'sapprentice Simply three usually active players
Day 2: Fujiwara, Dumytru, moon-raven Oh, well, I had hoped on confirmation for one of the other two, moon-raven's being more active, too, this game

Dimytru's kinda acting more quiet than usual this game.

Anyway, no kill day 2? Since there was no lynch, it didn't simply coincide with the lynch. Since there was no self-vote, it wasn't due to inactivity. Instead, it was intentional no-kill. I would concieve it being due to unidentified informamt, but there was a kill yesterday!

while i completely agree with this (that's why i myself said, i kinda didn't wanna go through with it), who do you think would suffer the 24hour wait of not killing??? the above ↑ was posted about three hours before Day 1. the order(asking the informants to identify themselves) might have been sent already so all the more reason to disagree with the Ditch Day 1 strategy!

You can actually change the order instead of challenging the strategy - a lot less conspicuous, and what I think Fujiwara would have done if she was a spy and the no-post idea was obstructing her.

As for your reasons for the no-kill, I don't see why would the spy wait for more fake investigates. I mean, they could kill and get more fake investigates anyway. But well, I can't think of anything that makes sense.
Actually, I dismissed the idea of unidentified informant because there was a kill day 1. But what if the spy was willing to shoot in the dark with two informants alive, but now when there's only one - not? This would normally point to inactive informants. But we don't have any inactives now (no self votes day 2, only mine day 1 but I was active). This probably means the informant followed the order, but the spy missed it (I did that last round). This would make me think the informant's one of the people who post longer posts, but I missed a two-liner ID last round.

...This would make me think the informant's one of the people who post longer posts, but I missed a two-liner ID last round.

what's this supposed to mean... -_-

That it makes sense to assume that if the identification order was to say something (it usually is), the longer the post that includes it, the easier it is to miss it. However, last round I missed Ansai identifying himself in a very short post, so and bash in a moderately long post, so I won't assume that the informant has been posting long posts.

Quick post, but as of tomorrow afternoon I'll have all the time in the world.

SA is looking like civillian so far (either that or a very crafty informant), as do Yuri Iwamoto, Miyano Shiho, and KleeneOnigiri. I won't get into the reasons now, no time (and some of them may help the spy). My investigations have also supposedly cleared SA, MR, and yesterday also Fujiwara.

I won't bet on spies, the informant probably spoke more than average on day 1 and 2 (no time to complete list, but you can check).

See you tomorrow afternoon.

You guys see and pull your own conclusions.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Just adding who the informants (Togop and PhantomWriter) voted for.

Day 1:
PhantomWriter: miyano_shiho
Togop: Togop

Day 2:
Togop: Jellito

Day 3:
Togop: MoonRaven

Day 4:
Togop: MoonRaven