ESPIONAGE: Round One (Spy arrested, Civilians win)

[Stopwatch]

I honestly can't think of anything else but voting randomly, especially since this is day 1 and we have zero information :x
*lacks creative problem solving skills*

Perhaps put the focus onto other players? As in, ask someone to attempt to defend themselves and see what they come up with (with a threat that if they do it badly we all vote them). We pretty much just have to work off reactions for this and it's possible there will be big give aways about that. We should probably leave players who haven't played Mafia before until last though because they may come across as suspicious in defending themselves simply because they're newer. On the other hand, if they're confused about the setup then that that confusion is genuine will probably be apparent.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

although it's said to be random, it is by default that when nobody votes, the one on the top of their list will be voted. so it is unlikely that the spy is the first on the list or else this game is done in one day but then again everybody might have a different person on the top of their list so in that case if everybody votes for whoever is on the top of their list, the results of the votes will probably be a tie of 18 people which then will lead to no arrest and only one definitive death... there is also the risk of arresting the detective so do not solely rely on the list fellow players. if everybody agrees on voting the very first person on their list, we can already reduce the suspect to two. we will be relying to the detective's instinct and the luck that the spy will be voting for the wrong person. bare in mind that this will only be effective if everybody has a different person on the top of their list.

who's with me?!

Keep in mind that in a list, you could have:

1. Civilian D
2. Civilian E
3. Civilian A
4. Civilian B
5. Spy
6. Civilian C
7. Civilian F

What I can say for sure is that the lists are completely random. The Spy/Detective could be in the top slot or the bottom slot; no adjustments were made for that. Everyone's list is also completely different, so if everyone just votes the top of their list, there's a very little chance that the Spy will be the one voted since 6 of the 7 on a list will be a civilian. Additionally, the Spy may not actually even be on the list and the list could be just civilians and the Detective. Most importantly, though: "Civilian D" in this example could show up on the top of say, 3 of the 18 lists even though they're a civilian. Randomization can just lead to something like that.

oh ok. i wasn't going for arresting the spy right at the end of phase1. what i was aiming for is reducing the suspects to two(EDIT:4). if 18people vote for the person on the top of their list, there will be a total of 18people with each having one vote. the votes of the remaining two people, will then each add to a person which will still result to a tie. example:
A =1
.
.
.
Q =1 + 1(spy/detective)
R =1 + 1(spy/detective)
*tie=no arrest=only one people out of the game

but as i said, and as you said, which i will be re-quoting

Most importantly, though: "Civilian D" in this example could show up on the top of say, 3 of the 18 lists even though they're a civilian.

the idea is only effective if everybody has a different person on the top of their list

the whole point is: there will be two people having 2 votes each. 2 out of the 4 people who voted the two will either be the spy and the detective for they do not possess a list and will have to rely on their instinct on who to vote...

since you yourself said that it is completely random, there is still a very little slight chance that 'Civilian D' will only appear once on the top of all the lists

[Jd-]

Yeah, it would be a good idea and strategy if everyone's lists began with someone different. Unfortunately, due to the randomization technique, that strategy will only give us a random result in itself. Whoever the Detective and Spy vote to "fit in" with that won't make either easier to identity (good thing for the Detective, whoever you may be!), since it's more likely the many civilians will have some overlap. I think we'd just end up with confusion if we went that route.

Right now, I have someone in mind... who... has not posted yet...

[Iwamoto Yuri]

I'm just going to randomly pick someone from my list.

[Memesu]

^
I don´t really have other ideas right now.

[Raiden]

\o/ *Cheers the GM on as she steps up on the podium* \o/

I haven't really got any ideas either, so will probably go with PLAN B!
* Trust my gut feeling and pick someone from the list which seem more suspicious than the rest and hope for a good bit of luck, it's the right one.

[Stopwatch]

If we vote randomly then we have no way of predicting what could happen. We need to get information with which to vote off.

So, Raiden, who do you think is most suspicious right now? Ignore your list; it may not have the Spy on it at all and I'm not sure how much the rules can be stretched in terms of not revealing lists.

[miyano_shiho]

I don't think I can come up with a definite strategy right now especially since the game has just started. I suggest though, that everyone votes someone from their list because, probability-wise, there's obviously a higher chance that the spy is there. And then we start basing off our deductions on the votes... Also, excuse my time zone :x

[Stopwatch]

I don't think I can come up with a definite strategy right now especially since the game has just started. I suggest though, that everyone votes someone from their list because, probability-wise, there's obviously a higher chance that the spy is there. And then we start basing off our deductions on the votes... Also, excuse my time zone :x

The Spy isn't in all lists and just the Detective is in some of them. As in, it's just as likely we'll hit the Detective this way.

[miyano_shiho]

The list should not be ignored. What's good in the list is that there is a guarantee that the spy or detective, or both, are in there. It gives us something to start with. We have 7 people out of 20 in the list, and each person there has a 1/7 or 2/7 probability of having a role, as opposed to 1/12 from choosing one of the other 12 (excluding yourself of course) not in the list, which is obviously much lower. (Sorry I'll just keep talking in terms of probabilities now :V) These apply to both the spy and detective but there is still a very low chance we'll hit either of them in the early phases. Also, if we make sure everyone votes someone from their list, we'll soon narrow down the players in each of our lists.

(edited because I don't know what happened I put in the wrong numbers :V)

[Jd-]

I like that there's a certain math-meets-logic angle to this. I've sent in my vote, though I may change it. Not too sure. I'm tempted to just send it in and see how this phase ends up.

I can say this though: If the Detective dies the first phase, we're... gonna be in trouble. Let's hope we don't arrest them on accident.

[Raiden]

So, Raiden, who do you think is most suspicious right now? Ignore your list; it may not have the Spy on it at all and I'm not sure how much the rules can be stretched in terms of not revealing lists.

Not sure right now, but still plenty of time left. I might go with one of those who has yet to say anything this round, as Jd said earlier, it may very well be they have something to hide - although that, right now, could easily just be conflicting timezones too.

I agree with Miyano that the lists shouldn't be ignored, what would be the point of them then?

Just a fleeting thought here but it might not be very wise to tell who you are going to vote from your list, in case the that the two people without any list decide to leech on and vote that person as well.

Edit: Oh look :O I mention Jd and he sneaks in and ninja-posts before me. Coincidence or is there something more sinister at work? dun dun DUN!

[Nix]

Ok, going with what everyone thinks and voting a random player in my list.
So I guess.. sorry in advance if the one I lynch is innocent :x :V

Hopefully this round can go on for more than 1 day

I also agree lists are important, it is pretty much the only information we can use (besides the victim of murder) since we are restricted to deducting from votings only (no alliances, no anything D:). We're bound to go random on the 1st day, I think, too early to think about information and strategies :/
I feel like we will just end up in a huge confusion :x

I don't think it's a great idea to pick on people who are not posting, because there's so many reasons why someone might not post - timezones, lurking, life, etc., at least not at this point.

[Jd-]

Since this is all set to be so random, it'll be interesting to see who gets arrested--if anyone. We may end up with like a three-way tie or something.

[bash7353]

The list should not be ignored. What's good in the list is that there is a guarantee that the spy or detective, or both, are in there. It gives us something to start with. We have 6 people out of 18 in the list, and each person there has a 1/6 or 1/3 probability of having a role, as opposed to 1/12 from choosing one of the other 12 not in the list, which is obviously much lower. (Sorry I'll just keep talking in terms of probabilities now :V) These apply to both the spy and detective but there is still a very low chance we'll hit either of them in the early phases. Also, if we make sure everyone votes someone from their list, we'll soon narrow down the players in each of our lists.

As of right now, the chances that besides civilians only the detective is in your list is 3/7, the chance that only the spy in your list is 3/7 as well. Then there's a 1/7 chance that both are part of your list. Obviously those chances are gonna change throughout the game depending on who is arrested and whether they're on your list.

In general, I would agree with Miyano that it is better for you if someone who's on your list is arrested rather than someone who isn't. So that's how I will make my voting decision. I don't think I'll take into consideration who has posted here and who hasn't, for now anyway.