Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

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lucky777
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by lucky777 »

sstimson wrote: I hear the reverse. On multi choice test most people who change their answer go from the correct one to an incorrect one.
As you first guess for some reason is best. And also for some reason if you were to chose B on those kind of test and only B, on most of them you would pass. Again Psychology. Yes Eworm you might not consciously pick the Right door, but even if you are not English, are still likely to sub-consciously pick it.

look at this picture in words (Door 1) (Door 2) (Door 3). Three doors three chances. I think this way I choice the doors in order in this case door 1, then something is trying to get me to choice a different door by showing me a bad door. at first my change of picking the right was 33%. Now knowing a wrong door they become 50%. But now you need to answer this question. Was my first guess right or wrong. As I already showed, most of the time changing your answer is wrong. So the best thing to do seem to be go with your first choice. I would really do this in the game show because my thinking is If I choose the wrong door he will just open it, by trying to get me to doubt myself he is likely trying to get me to go from the right door to the wrong door. Also that crazy game show deal or no, how many times were game players fooled into selling winning suitcases.

Go right.
Well your on the right tracks, but you got the wrong reasoning
phreak_91 wrote: Now that you put it that way, I also seem to remember something from a math class I once had.  I believe that we went over this subject, and even watched an episode of the TV show "Numbers" that had to do with this concept....  However, I never did understand the reasoning, and have since forgotton.  It does have something to do with probability changing once an option is removed, though.  That I do remember. 
Your thinking the right way, just think what has changed now hat the host removed 1 door
I see what you did there ;)
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by eworm »

On multi choice test most people who change their answer go from the correct one to an incorrect one.
As you first guess for some reason is best. (...) As I already showed, most of the time changing your answer is wrong.
You showed nothing. It's just you saying things without any reason behind it. I mean, it may be a correct answer - but there's no law making the first choice correct and the second wrong, so it'd be just a coincidence.

I think I remember in which maths book I saw it but looking into it now would be kind of cheating. Let me think...

First:
The probability of making the first choice correct is 33,3%.
The probability of making the first choice wrong is 66,6%.
The probability of making the second choice right and wrong are both 50%.

So if you don't change the door you picked, it's 66,6% * 50% = 33,3% probability of getting it wrong, while 33,3% * 50% = 16,65% probability of getting it right.
If you do change your mind, it's 33,3% * 50% = 16,65% probability of getting it wrong and 66,6% * 50% = 33,3% probability of getting it right.

So it's 33,3% chance if you choose left now and 16,65% chance if you stick to the right.
Left it is.

Okay I believe that's exactly that.
I fried my brain right now.
Last edited by eworm on November 23rd, 2011, 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by lucky777 »

I think I remember in which maths book I saw it but looking into it now would be kind of cheating. Let me think...

First:
The probability of making the first choice correct is 33,3%.
The probability of making the first choice wrong is 66,6%.
The probability of making the second choice right and wrong are both 50%.

So if you don't change the door you picked, it's 66,6% * 50% = 33,3% probability of getting it wrong, while 33,3% * 50% = 16,65% probability of getting it right.
If you do change your mind, it's 33,3% * 50% = 16,65% probability of getting it wrong and 66,6% * 50% = 33,3% probability of getting it right.

So it's 33,3% chance if you choose left now and 16,65% chance if you stick to the right.

Okay I believe that's exactly that.
I fried my brain right now.[.size]


Oh you are SO SO close, it actually hurts me that you pretty much got the answer but wrong values.
I think it counts as having this puzzle solved so I think I'm going to explain this puzzle now.


Spoiler:
Okay as eworm said there's is a 66% chance of picking the wrong door and 33% chance of picking the right door. So first you pick a door you have 66% chance of picking the wrong door, it's then revealed that one of the other doors contains the wrong door so now your left with the door you picked and the door left over.

Because from your first pick you had 66% chance of being wrong, that chance will stay with you. But now that one of the doors you don't want to go in is revealed you can be sure of guaranteeing changing your prize.
So the initial 66% you had of choosing the wrong door then gets transferred over to 66% chance of getting the prize money sicne you know for a fact that your prize will change.

If my explanation didn't get through to you here is a link that will explain it better
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
I see what you did there ;)
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by eworm »

Oh wait, of course. I'm so dumb. It's 66,6% * 100% if you change your mind and 33,3% * 100% if you don't. So it's much simpler than what I said before.
Me tired, me dumb.

I'll try to think of something nice now but if nothing from me appears in 24h from now on, feel free to post any riddle you want, 'kay?
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by sstimson »

That solution is true as long as there is a rule to make sure it is always fair.

Also I was reading that on the quiz you also 50 5o either going wrong to right vs right to wrong, another way to put it if you are almost sure you are wrong, then change and maybe increase you grade, other wise stay with your first choice.

But the game changes in that is not the case

Lets saw unknown to you because of hard times the prize giver now sets the number of prizes and want Mr. Hall to minimum of cars won to the minimum. So the rules are if you pick the wrong door depend on if he is allowed or not you either get a chance to change your choice or just open the door. Do it that way, does changing your choice still equal the best way to win the car,or as I was saying, know the host is playing with your mind, trying to get you to go from a win to a lose say 3 times out of 5
Last edited by sstimson on November 23rd, 2011, 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by eworm »

Guess who has been unexpectedly hit by inspiration? That's right, yours truly was. And the result shall be...
THE BRAIN-FRYING RIDDLE #5: THERE IS ALWAYS ONLY ONE TRUTH!
COMING REALLY SOON. Tomorrow or maybe even today (depends on your time-zone too).

Here's what you can expect:
-> a noticeable decrease in the number of characters.
-> no need to know the previous BFRs - for the first time!
-> a really interesting challenge!
-> all the Brain-Frying Awesomeness you know and love (or don't know but are going to love)

As the Thread's Brain I ask of you to wait without posting any new riddles, if you could. It's been a long time (about six months) since the last BFR and so I want to give you this one as soon as possible. Don't worry about the quality. It's going to be quite different from the previous ones but I shall make it an awesome anniversary - you know, it's the 5th one, a nice number, right?

So stay tuned and call everyone you know on this forums, because a competition to decide the greatest Deduction Master is about to start!
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

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After half a year of waiting I finally give it to you! It's the fifth Brain-Frying Riddle, ladies and gentlemen! It's also the first one that doesn't require any knowledge from the previous BFRs and is therefore a great starting point for newcomers and/or the lazy ones ― but don't expect the difficulty level to have dropped! It's still 100% packed with eworm's Brain-Fryingness!

But first... Well... It's number five. Not much, I know, but to me it seems like I gained a lot of experience... It's been a lot of fun of course, too. Oh, I'm feeling sentimental already. Imagine what will happen when the BFR #10 comes out! Anyway ― shall we take a brief look at the history of the Brain-Frying Riddles?
The first one was ― compared to the more recent ones ― ridiculously easy. Just a simple murder case based around a dying message trick. Back then the in-universe detective was Detective Conan's detective Takagi.
He also solved the second BFR's mystery ― an assault. For the second case I lowered the difficulty level even more, which led to it becoming the only one solved by a contestant so far. A bunch of characters were introduced back then too, ones that played very important roles in the third and the fourth BFR.
With the third Brain-Frying Riddle I decided not to hold back and fry your brains with an awesome Kaitou KID case! It was probably harder to figure out than both the previous BFRs combined, but what a mystery it was! Maybe Kaitou KID will return someday... What do you think? With that case I removed detective Takagi and decided to let a certain character shine...
A lot of time passed between the third and fourth Brain-Frying Riddle, but it wasn't for naught. The 1000th post of the thread was celebrated by the most awesome and difficult case I myself had ever seen. I surprised you back then by making an unusual type of case ― a Prevent The Murder mystery! It also seemed to have attracted a bit more of promising competitors.

And so it's been a murder case, an assault, a Kaitou KID case and a PTM mystery. What, you may ask, am I going to surprise you with this time? Well, prepare to experience something special!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAIN-FRYING RIDDLE #5
There Is Always Only One Truth!
Mizusawa Tatsumi was a hopeless romanticist and a bit too naive but intelligent anyway. One day, however, he died. He was lying on the floor in his house's hallway near the front door, his head shot through. He was dressed elegantly. In his pocket he had a clicked-on pen with purple ink. The only things on the floor around were a gun (his late father's memento), a piece of paper with a written message, a clicked-off pen with black ink, a cellphone which had been shot with a bullet too and... a single red rose petal. The rest of the red roses bouquet was later found in a trash bin outside.

The note has definitely been written by Tatsumi himself, using a black-inked pen. Here's the text:
"After A Man Is given Hope, He shall cling To It With All His Might. When The Hope Is crushed With cruelty beyond reason Though, There Is nothing remaining but grief And despair".

Two of Tatsumi's friends happened to find him after visiting his house. One is Hitomi Wataru, a private detective, and the other is Kagami Nanase, a policewoman. After entering through the front door which was open but had no traces of being forced open, they both investigated the scene. The results they reached were quite different though ― Hitomi states it was a suicide while Nanase accuses Hitomi of murdering Tatsumi. How did both of them arrive at their conclusions? And what is The One And Only Truth?

Characters' Hints!
Hitomi: I know why Tatsumi killed himself and what the true message hidden in that note is... But I shall not speak about it.
Nanase: I'm sure Tatsumi'd hate to see how much of a mess he made. He was always an incredibly tidy person.
Tatsumi's diary: Nanase and Hitomi both know they're the only people I ever told about my father's memento.

What is your task this time? Expect nothing easy ― this time there are more detectives on the scene! What was Wataru's deduction? Was he right? If not, why? What was Nanase's deduction? Was she right? If not, why? What is the meaning of the note and the other clues? And how did Tatsumi die after all?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IMPORTANT RULES!
1. A motive is something you only need to provide for a "suicide" theory. When considering "murder", you don't need to provide the culprit's reasons.

2. After sending me your first deduction (out of three, no more), you'll be replied with a special analysis from me. I'll point out some mistakes if there are any and I'll try to show you some things to consider. In short, there will be help after the first try. If you wish so, I could also reveal who of the two characters is wrong and/or who is right, but that's only after your second deduction.

3. This Brain-Frying Riddle is going to last a month or two, in order to give all the busy people and the people arriving late enough time to solve it.

4. I might provide the competitors some special hints on Christmas, so be sure to send me at least one deduction before that time or you'll miss it!

5. Teaming up is allowed.

6. Letting other people know about the Brain-Frying Riddle#5 and persuading them to try is encouraged.

7. Having fun while solving the mystery is a must.

8. Asking me anything or posting a deduction here is forbidden. Everything goes to my PM box and I'll try answering ASAP.

I expect to be hearing from you soon! Try your best!
Last edited by eworm on May 12th, 2014, 8:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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lucky777
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by lucky777 »

looks really interesting, I think i'l have a go at this
I see what you did there ;)
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by Kogorou »

I hate to have my projects now that you eworm released you latest BFR..
I hope a lot of people will give it a go.
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by Kogorou »

Did you get any solutions yet eworm ?
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by eworm »

Oh, you bet I have! It actually seems like this BFR will be the second one to get solved (at last). I feel kinda good and kinda bad about it ;] Yet I play fair and advice people not to be too hasty and wait for a Christmas Hint, at least before sending in the third (final) deduction.

And how's the W&B case going? Hope you'll make it awesome and in time (but try to drop by You-Know-Where from time to time). :3
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by Kogorou »

I just wrote some of the lastest Case and I took your advice from the first one to heart :) Formatting and stuff like that.
It will be a lot to read because I won't do it like the second case that I hereby exclude from the official W&B.  Let's say it's was small mistake of mine that led me to do it that way.
I will deliver you something nice to read for christmas. Make sure to check by on December 24th :)
I will definetly make it in time for christmas. After that I will work on :)

There is still time for the BFR? You will get PM soon :)
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by Kogorou »

Final brush up on Williams and Borner III  -  Eggnog and cookies.
It will be there in a couple of minuts.
Just refresh the other thread.
Follow the link in my signatur :)
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by Kogorou »

Merry Christmas to everyone.
And now enjoy your holiday and don't forget to read the latest W&B :)

And try to solve BFRV !! It's worth it !!
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Re: Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

Post by eworm »

BRAIN-FRYING ANSWER #5!
It's over, great detectives! Many of you tried and I need to say many of you got really close to the truth! You all deserve many congratulations but the biggest ones go to the victor, of course! Yes, for the second time in history a Brain Frying Riddle has been solved!
And the winner is... Giogio! Bravo!
You've earned yourself a right to call yourself a Brain-Frying Meitantei!
As always here's the riddle again first:
Spoiler: The Riddle
BRAIN-FRYING RIDDLE #5
There Is Always Only One Truth!
Mizusawa Tatsumi was a hopeless romanticist and a bit too naive but intelligent anyway. One day, however, he died. He was lying on the floor in his house's hallway near the front door, his head shot through. He was dressed elegantly. In his pocket he had a clicked-on pen with purple ink. The only things on the floor around were a gun (his late father's memento), a piece of paper with a written message, a clicked-off pen with black ink, a cellphone which had been shot with a bullet too and... a single red rose petal. The rest of the red roses bouquet was later found in a trash bin outside.

The note has definitely been written by Tatsumi himself, using a black-inked pen. Here's the text:
"After A Man Is given Hope, He shall cling To It With All His Might. When The Hope Is crushed With cruelty beyond reason Though, There Is nothing remaining but grief And despair".

Two of Tatsumi's friends happened to find him after visiting his house. One is Hitomi Wataru, a private detective, and the other is Kagami Nanase, a policewoman. After entering through the front door which was open but had no traces of being forced open, they both investigated the scene. The results they reached were quite different though ― Hitomi states it was a suicide while Nanase accuses Hitomi of murdering Tatsumi. How did both of them arrive at their conclusions? And what is The One And Only Truth?

Characters' Hints!
Hitomi: I know why Tatsumi killed himself and what the true message hidden in that note is... But I shall not speak about it.
Nanase: I'm sure Tatsumi'd hate to see how much of a mess he made. He was always an incredibly tidy person.
Tatsumi's diary: Nanase and Hitomi both know they're the only people I ever told about my father's memento.

What is your task this time? Expect nothing easy ― this time there are more detectives on the scene! What was Wataru's deduction? Was he right? If not, why? What was Nanase's deduction? Was she right? If not, why? What is the meaning of the note and the other clues? And how did Tatsumi die after all?
And now for the answer!
Spoiler: 1st Deduction
HITOMI WATARU'S DEDUCTION ― SUICIDE THEORY:

WWWIt doesn't take a genius to realize what roses and Tatsumi's elegant clothes seem to imply. Even more so if you remember the victim was a hopeless romanticist. All that and the note's text point quite obviously towards a broken heart suicide. So according to Wataru, Tatsumi was preparing to go on a date with his crush or intended to confess.
WWWBut it seems something happened before he left, something that caused him to be depressed enough to commit suicide. Why before he left? It's because of the rose petal. Tatsumi was an incredibly tidy person, as Nanase reveals in her Character Hint. He wouldn't simply leave a petal on the floor unless he was in a shock – after getting dumped. But because of getting dumped Tatsumi threw the flowers to the trash bin outside. Therefore, if he'd been dumped before coming home, he would have had no reason to bring the flowers inside again. He'd throw them away on his way back. That's why Wataru came to conclusion the petal fell before Tatsumi left the house. But he wouldn't leave if that was the case – he'd pick it up immediately. Again – unless he was shocked by getting dumped. Then he'd probably treat the flowers with less care, eventually throwing them away without noticing a petal falling. Therefore, Tatsumi got dumped beofre even leaving the house. How?
WWWTake a look on the floor again. Tatsumi's cellphone, shattered with a bullet. If Wataru considers the case to be a suicide, he has to assume Tatsumi was the one who did that. And here's his explanation – Tatsumi was so infuriated with the bad news he got through the cell, he shot it. There's also another possible reason. The note doesn't reveal the woman's identity. Maybe Tatsumi wanted it to remain a secret, thus destroying all the records in his phone in a flashy and dramatic way? After all he loved her. After calming down a bit, he could come to the conclusion he didn't want other people to call her guilty.
WWWTherefore Tatsumi wrote the note. Without revealing the woman's identity... or maybe? Let's take a look at the capital letters. They're “A”, “T”, “M”, “I”, “W” and “H”. Wataru quickly realized what they all have in common. The letters Tatsumi wrote as capitals was the ones that look the same when reflected in a mirror! The word “mirror” in Japanese is “kagami”, Nanase's last name! Possibly Wataru simply knew what to look for – being the best male friend of Tatsumi he might have already known Tatsumi had feelings for Nanase.
WWWTatsumi had to have a reason for leaving the woman's identity in form of a code. He didn't want it to be revealed, he simply wanted for his best friend to know. Even if Wataru wasn't the first to find the body, he would get involved in the investigation for sure, as the victim's best friend who knew about the gun. And that's why Wataru doesn't want to speak about the note's hidden meaning or Tatsumi's reason for suicide – not in the presence of Nanase. After all it would be almost as brutal as accusing her. Moreover she might not even realize she dumped Tatsumi – she could have simply called him to inform about getting a boyfriend or getting engaged, thus unknowingly breaking his heart.
WWWBut Wataru's theory doesn't seem to fit all the facts. What about the pens? The black-inked one Tatsumi wrote the note with was lying on the floor. Maybe Tatsumi wanted to leave this world in a flashy, dramatic way, which would fit his romantic personality, but even so what about the purple-inked pen in his pocket? You don't put a clicked-on pen in the pocket of one of your best suits! The ink could leak and ruin it! Tidy Tatsumi would never do something like that. This time it can't even be blamed on him being shocked, because he simply didn't have any reason to be holding the pen when receiving the call from Nanase.
WWWTherefore it looks like Wataru's deduction is wrong. But let's not forget all about it just yet...
Spoiler: 2nd Deduction
KAGAMI NANASE'S DEDUCTION – MURDER BY WATARU THEORY:

WWWNanase is much more sceptical about the clues. There's almost too many things pointing towards a romantic suicide. But if it was a murder, it would be easy for the culprit to bring the flowers and force Tatsumi to dress elegantly and write a note. The weird capital letters in the note seem to support this theory, possibly being some sort of a dying message.
WWWAnd there's more! The pens, the pens Wataru thought of as being insignificant, are in fact incredibly important according to Nanase – because they are in themselves another dying message from Tatsumi, a dying message for somebody who knew how tidy of a person he was. The murderer forced him to use the black-inked pencil to write the note but Tatsumi secretly hid another pencil in his pocket and left it clicked-on to signalise it's important. In other words: “I didn't write that note, I was forced to!”. It's a dying message indicating another dying message!
WWWAnd what is that another message? It obviously has to do with the capital letters. They're “A”, “T”, “M”, “I”, “W” and “H”. What does Nanase make of it? Well, aren't they all present in either last name or given name of Hitomi Wataru? The only person who knew about Tatsumi's gun and would be let in by the victim without having to force the door open. Also it would have been quite convenient for him to leave all the clues pointing to a woman being involved, not a man.
WWWThe phone was destroyed by the culprit – either Tatsumi was trying to contact somebody and got caught or the phone had records of Wataru arranging the meeting by calling or texting. The rose petal was left to make sure the police would find another false lead – the bouquet in the trash bin.
WWWBut Nanase's theory doesn't seem to be correct either. First of all, if Tatsumi was trying to capitalise the letters of Wataru's name, he'd also write the words “reason” and “remaining” with a capital “R”, but he didn't. Moreover, would the murderer not notice such an obvious trick? Even if they did after killing Tatsumi, the fake-suicide set up could work even without the note. Why risk and not take it?
Spoiler: Solution
THE ONE AND ONLY TRUTH:

WWWThere is always only one truth, but the traces of it can be found in both he incorrect deductions. Nanase was wrong about the note's meaning, but she correctly realized the two pens were supposed to point towards the note's hidden message. The same message Wataru read correctly but interpreted totally wrong. It was true the capital letters were pointing towards Kagami Nanase – but not as the reason for suicide, but as the culprit, the murderer!
WWWNanase killed Tatsumi! Her deduction wasn't wrong – it was fake!
WWWTatsumi gladly let her in but what he got was a threat with his own gun. Nanase shot his cellphone to erase the traces of her arranging the meeting. Because Tatsumi was in love with her, it wasn't even necessary to force him into dressing elegantly. Nanase could have brought her own flowers, though it's possible Tatsumi already had a bouquet ready, so it wasn't needed.
WWWTatsumi had no choice but to comply and even if he was heartbroken and terrified, he still managed to carry out that clever trick with the pencils, intending to hide a dying message in the note. Unfortunately! It turned out he was playing right into Nanase's hands by doing that!
WWWHow, you ask? Well, it's obvious Nanase would get rid of the note after noticing the capital letters. They were an obvious dying message! Very dangerous! Watch out! And yet the note was left at the crime scene. Nanase being a total idiot can't be a satisfying explanation. Why then?
WWWBecause it wasn't a murder. It was a murder by Nanase disguised as a murder by Wataru badly disguised as a suicide! Yes, Nanase wanted to frame Wataru and the capital letters were actually her idea! Now do you understand? Making the pens indicating the note to have been written unwillingly was all right with Nanase, that was what she wanted the note to look like! Tatsumi's great idea backfired!
WWWBut here is where we see his genius mind at work. Imagine that! You're forced to write a suicide note with a dying message also dictated to you. How can you ruin the culprit's message and at the same time hide your own? Moreover you need to do it in a way she wouldn't notice, because in such case the note would be destroyed and it'd be all for naught. No matter how you look at it, it's impossible!
WWWYet Tatsumi managed to do just that! And how! Being told to write every word starting with a letter from Wataru's name with a capital letter – he “missed” one letter. He didn't capitalise “r” and just by doing that he turned the tables brilliantly! It was a “mistake” small enough to make Nanase not suspect anything and think she could still go with that. But the truth was Nanase's explanation for the note was now worthless, while all the capital letters magically started pointing to her being the murderer!
Last edited by eworm on May 12th, 2014, 8:44 am, edited 2 times in total.
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