A Possible Questionable New theory Hairbaba still Bo?

[sstimson]

"Hey Aniki.  There's some FBI guy getting all chummy with the older Miyano girl."

"Kill him."

This.

I know we have a few Yaoi. But that statement is just bad. Really watch you language!

Spoiler:

http://onlineslangdictionary.com/definition+of/kill+a+kitten

[sstimson]

In any case, before you get too wrapped up in a minor point like this, you should address and provide evidence for the major contradictions:

1) What benefit is there that justifies the risks of getting exposed when the boss is purposefully letting Shinichi run around and make trouble for the BO, team up with the FBI and the CIA, and discuss the org with other people like Heiji, Yuusaku, and the police.

We are lead to believe the Drug is meant to kill. But this is based on what one ( Hairaba. She so far is the only one who knows the truth and has said something. But she might be lying when she says the DRUG kills ) says. The real question is what is the truth about the drug.
This assumes that one of the main reasons of the BO existence is the DRUG, and what it really does.

How the drug works in the wild. Why the drug did not kill. How does the drug effect the one who take it and do not die. Does the drug effect their mental abilities. Does the Drug help those to get well faster when sick. A major one: why did the user revert to normal. Did they really go completely normal in every way. Why did they go back. What changes if any happened because of this.

Part two is Do we really know what the FBI, and CIA already know. It is possible that all Shinichi, Heiji, and maybe even Yuusaku know is already known. Note the Bo is still mostly still secret even though a few more now know about them. And if you are right  about the risk, then why has the BO not tried to Blow Up the FBI in japan?

2) Why the research has to be "done in the wild" when controlled lab conditions would be better universally.  ("It wouldn't work in a controlled environment" is an unacceptable answer. Why wouldn't it work?)

In certain experiments you need what are called blind test subjects. Shinichi Is certainly one of these. Yes He knows he took a drug that should have killed ( at least according to a few voices which might be lying ) and lived. But he does not know the true reason for the drug or why he was given it. If he was under 'controlled' conditions, it would rapidly become apparent that there is more going on then meets the eye. And he would no longer be Blind. The Blind can not directly or indierctly effect the experiment. The control might just by knowing.

3) Why the boss cares how Shinichi performs on various supposed "tests" as you called them that have nothing to do with the drug or its effects on Shinichi's body - while keeping the boss in character.
4) If Shinichi is a valuable test subject, why are they letting him run into cases where he nearly gets killed all the time?
5) Why is the boss allowing his own subordinates to nearly kill Shinichi - as in Pisco, whose bullets we know are real and who shot at the sound of Conan's voice thinking he was there, and Gin who left an exploding briefcase on a train with Shinichi, and Chianti and Korn whom Gin ordered to kill Shinichi.
6) Why is the Org allowing Conan to run into their agents and syndicate missions at all? It doesn't help things since Conan will be bound to interfere. And when Conan is trying mess with the mission, why aren't they compensating or coming up with new plans knowing he is interfering?
7) Why has B.O. actually been trying to kill or ordering someone to kill Haibara more than once -not just pretending to try- which doesn't make any sense if she was still loyal? Also remember that Shinichi came to trust her right away, there was no need to try to threaten Haibara multiple times.
8 ) How can the boss, Gin, Haibara, and the rest of the agents somehow predict all of Shinichi's actions perfectly - even his mistakes and various unpredictable coincidences, unless the Org can control all of Conan's friends, the FBI, the police, everyone in Japan, and has literally paved every meter of Tokyo with bugs and listening devices which somehow the ultraobservent Shinichi has always missed?

I will deal with these later after I get your input.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Spoiler:

We are lead to believe the Drug is meant to kill. But this is based on what one ( Hairaba. She so far is the only one who knows the truth and has said something. But she might be lying when she says the DRUG kills ) says. The real question is what is the truth about the drug.
This assumes that one of the main reasons of the BO existence is the DRUG, and what it really does.

How the drug works in the wild. Why the drug did not kill. How does the drug effect the one who take it and do not die. Does the drug effect their mental abilities. Does the Drug help those to get well faster when sick. A major one: why did the user revert to normal. Did they really go completely normal in every way. Why did they go back. What changes if any happened because of this.

This stuff doesn't really matter to the contradictions at all.

Part two is Do we really know what the FBI, and CIA already know. It is possible that all Shinichi, Heiji, and maybe even Yuusaku know is already known. Note the Bo is still mostly still secret even though a few more now know about them. And if you are right  about the risk, then why has the BO not tried to Blow Up the FBI in japan?

We aren't sure what the FBI and the CIA know because Akai and Hidemi haven't exactly said everything about what they have learned. Hitting the FBI hard would create an international incident that couldn't easily be covered up since there would be a trail of dead bodies around. The BO doesn't want that because a bunch of dead FBI officers in a foreign country screams conspiracy coverup.

2) Why the research has to be "done in the wild" when controlled lab conditions would be better universally.  ("It wouldn't work in a controlled environment" is an unacceptable answer. Why wouldn't it work?)

In certain experiments you need what are called blind test subjects. Shinichi Is certainly one of these. Yes He knows he took a drug that should have killed ( at least according to a few voices which might be lying ) and lived. But he does not know the true reason for the drug or why he was given it. If he was under 'controlled' conditions, it would rapidly become apparent that there is more going on then meets the eye. And he would no longer be Blind. The Blind can not directly or indierctly effect the experiment. The control might just by knowing.

Sorry, but that doesn't resolve the contraction of why not just kidnap him him and not tell him anything. Also the reason you put forward for why not controlled conditions doesn't make any sense - and even worse, they can't stop someone like Agasa or Conan himself from potentially throwing in variables to the experiment that might be detrimental - like the Baigar.

[sstimson]

[/spoiler]We are lead to believe the Drug is meant to kill. But this is based on what one ( Hairaba. She so far is the only one who knows the truth and has said something. But she might be lying when she says the DRUG kills ) says. The real question is what is the truth about the drug.
This assumes that one of the main reasons of the BO existence is the DRUG, and what it really does.

How the drug works in the wild. Why the drug did not kill. How does the drug effect the one who take it and do not die. Does the drug effect their mental abilities. Does the Drug help those to get well faster when sick. A major one: why did the user revert to normal. Did they really go completely normal in every way. Why did they go back. What changes if any happened because of this.[/spoiler]

This stuff doesn't really matter to the contradictions at all.

Part two is Do we really know what the FBI, and CIA already know. It is possible that all Shinichi, Heiji, and maybe even Yuusaku know is already known. Note the Bo is still mostly still secret even though a few more now know about them. And if you are right  about the risk, then why has the BO not tried to Blow Up the FBI in japan?

We aren't sure what the FBI and the CIA know because Akai and Hidemi haven't exactly said everything about what they have learned. Hitting the FBI hard would create an international incident that couldn't easily be covered up since there would be a trail of dead bodies around. The BO doesn't want that because a bunch of dead FBI officers in a foreign country screams conspiracy coverup.

2) Why the research has to be "done in the wild" when controlled lab conditions would be better universally.  ("It wouldn't work in a controlled environment" is an unacceptable answer. Why wouldn't it work?)

In certain experiments you need what are called blind test subjects. Shinichi Is certainly one of these. Yes He knows he took a drug that should have killed ( at least according to a few voices which might be lying ) and lived. But he does not know the true reason for the drug or why he was given it. If he was under 'controlled' conditions, it would rapidly become apparent that there is more going on then meets the eye. And he would no longer be Blind. The Blind can not directly or indierctly effect the experiment. The control might just by knowing.

Sorry, but that doesn't resolve the contraction of why not just kidnap him him and not tell him anything. Also the reason you put forward for why not controlled conditions doesn't make any sense - and even worse, they can't stop someone like Agasa or Conan himself from potentially throwing in variables to the experiment that might be detrimental - like the Baigar.

This is nice. I give you good valid reasons and you just hand wave them away. So repeating and explaining more and, next time do not just hand wave them away. Give me proof of your statements.

Start see my other thread about the drug. You can not just use one witness to prove a case. If the drug kills is completely based on what Hairaba and ONLY Hairaba says.

1) What benefit is there that justifies the risks of getting exposed when the boss is purposefully letting Shinichi run around and make trouble for the BO, team up with the FBI and the CIA, and discuss the org with other people like Heiji, Yuusaku, and the police.

A better question is what harm has happened. While the Org is likely world wide, Shinichi Parents moving him to America would have done two things. First the series if it continued would have been moved to America. Second any Bo Case's would have been few and far between.

Yuusaku even knowing is more interested in writing then detective. The BO must know this. So number one is no threat.

Heiji knowing has not brought an end to the BO. He might have told his dad to get the likely response of "I already knew" his helping has not prevented but for once (maybe) the BO plans. Yes It looked like they would attack Korogo in full force, but that did not happen. Again you are guilty of seeing thing at face value. In my mind GIN not coming back to attack korogo at a later date speaks volumes.We saw one side of the curtain, but we have not seen what is going on backstage. That attack seem staged to me.

As for the police, what real crimes have the BO done that are completely provable. They may or may not have complimented arson. They might have blackmailed unless again that was staged. For this argument we will stay completely canon. They might have killed Akai, but last time I check pretending to kill someone is not a crime. They did shot guns, but they killed no one doing it. Yes we have a back story about Jodie which may or may have not happened. Yes they had other do bank robber, but the money was returned. and I still question Akari's death. After all if one death can be faked , why not more. Also without proof the police (non Special ) would see what Kudo and Heiji have to say as conspiracy theory. Again No threat to their operations

Also realize this if the drug does not kill then the BO know all anyway. Hairaba appeared on the scene AFTER the drug reversed. I think that the BO was surprised by this and it needed closer inspection. You can disagree with this statement if you wish. BUT the DRUG DOES change reality. If it did not Kudo would still be Kudo. It changed the reality of the DC world by making Kudo become Conan. Again there is the question of the real purpose of the DRUG.It could be the DRUG changed reality by chemical means. But there is also the possibility that DRUG might have a kind of mind over matter thing., and if that last is true then KUDO being grabbed might change the expermint as he would know something was going on. He is just too smart not to figure it out.

Again another question how many sources about how the BO works. I think the way and the purposes of the BO are not what we think and we are being lead down a primrose path. Detective Conan to me is like AC's "They do it with mirrors" One needs to go backstage to see what is really going on.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

This is nice. I give you good valid reasons and you just hand wave them away. So repeating and explaining more and, next time do not just hand wave them away. Give me proof of your statements.

The part of your post in response to contradiction #1: "What benefit is there that justifies the risks of getting exposed" had nothing to do with resolving the contradiction. The true purpose of the drug doesn't matter to this contradiction. Obviously the boss would know the true purpose. From your perspective, the question for you is why is he testing it on Conan the way he is, not reigning in the BO from encountering Conan, and a bunch of other things I already listed and don't want to retype.

The part of your post in response to contradiction #2, "Why the research has to be 'done in the wild' when controlled lab conditions would be better universally," was an incorrect explanation based on what is probably a misunderstanding of experimental procedure. What you described makes no sense. When testing the effects of some treatment, the subjects being experimented on are split up into two groups: An experimental group which receives the actual treatment, and a control group which receives a placebo, i.e a dummy treatment (a sugar pill is one example). There may need to be multiple control groups to control for several variables. A single blind experiment is meant to eliminate bias caused by the subjects knowing which group, experimental or control, they are in. In a single blind experiment, the subjects are not told what they are getting, only what they might be getting.
The first problem is the control group. Conan in the experimental group was left alone after being given the pill, so the control group should have the same conditions in order for the experiment to be unbiased. This means the B.O. should be handing out sugar pills which they tell the subjects should kill them, and then leaving them alone, so the conditions match Conan's conditions. Basically in order to control for this experiment, the B.O. needs to be leaving witnesses running around. That is obviously extremely idiotic.
Furthermore the whole experimental procedure is flawed. Conan was told the drug would kill him by the experimenters (aka Gin and Vodka), so Conan would know he is in the experimental group since the drug didn't kill him, but did something weird to him instead. This means the experiment is inherently biased anyway.
Finally, Conan shrunk right away. There is no continued reason for the B.O. to let him wander around, because the drug already did what it was supposed to do. They can easily take him to some lab, lock him up, and perform additional behavioral and physiological tests in safety. If they need to create situations where Conan can somehow affect reality, then they can set up experiments. Here's one potential example: the floor will be electrified when a tone sounds and if Conan can affect reality to avoid a negative stimulus, the experimenters will expect the electrifier to short circuit or something mysterious will happen that will keep Conan from being shocked. Of course I think the whole premise of Conan altering reality is asinine.

A better question is what harm has happened?

Long list coming up.
1: Conan's "removal" of the exploding briefcase from the train meant that Gin and Vodka failed to silence the exchangee lady. She gave information to the police about the existence of the B.O. Even if the police can't do anything with the low level of info it's a start.
2: Gin had to shoot himself on the rooftop of the Haido city hotel, even if he escaped, it would put even him out of action temporarily because of blood loss and the time needed for general recovery. Also, his arm runs the risk of being permanently damaged. Finally, the B.O. couldn't predict that someone wouldn't come up to the rooftop, collect blood samples, and discover Gin's blood-type and DNA from the blood left around.
3: Vermouth was nearly captured because the FBI's plan which Conan helped out on. By sticking near Conan in disguise, Vermouth made herself vulnerable, which the FBI took advantage of. She was also put out of action temporarily with broken ribs and a shot leg.
4: Calvados was killed because of Vermouth's messed up plan.
5: Boss's phone number uncovered, opening possibility of it being traced.  
6: Kusudu Rikumichi forced to commit suicide because of Conan's finding him. FBI gets to keep the body and all his personal belongings.
7: Conan's plan to return Hidemi to the Org means that The FBI are now getting intelligence from the Org from Hidemi.

In my mind GIN not coming back to attack korogo at a later date speaks volumes.

That's because Vermouth saved his arse. See this post on page two of this thread.

BUT the DRUG DOES change reality. If it did not Kudo would still be Kudo. It changed the reality of the DC world by making Kudo become Conan.

Obviously the drug changes reality by actually doing something, however this is a different matter than changing reality because Shinichi's mind somehow willed himself to shrink instead of die.

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Here is the simple numbered summary of why this theory is just plain bad:
1: There is no evidence to support this theory that the much simpler theory that the org doesn't know about Conan can't already explain adequately. (Occam's razor)
2: It creates more contradictions than it supposedly resolves.
3: Explaining those contradictions means that the entire logical premise of the story is undermined as well as the principles of good storytelling, characterization, etc.

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[sstimson]

This is nice. I give you good valid reasons and you just hand wave them away. So repeating and explaining more and, next time do not just hand wave them away. Give me proof of your statements.

The part of your post in response to contradiction #1: "What benefit is there that justifies the risks of getting exposed" had nothing to do with resolving the contradiction. The true purpose of the drug doesn't matter to this contradiction. Obviously the boss would know the true purpose. From your perspective, the question for you is why is he testing it on Conan the way he is, not reigning in the BO from encountering Conan, and a bunch of other things I already listed and don't want to retype.

Ok let me put it this way: The benefits are: Using Kudo they know the DRUG works. The DRUG effects can be reversed. But I understand you refuse to think about why the DRUG does what it does. As it is fantasy anyway. the DRUG could work either by chemical action or mental action. Both are equally probable. As such I look at the mental route. And the BO still needs answers to the following questions:

How the drug works in the wild?

This question is one reason why Conan is not in a controlled environment

Why the drug did not kill?

I believe it was never intended to kill.

How does the drug effect the one who take it and do not die?

Again Conan needs to be alive and watched somewhat to get this answer.

Does the drug effect their mental abilities?

One reason why I think every now and then the BO is testing him look for evidence of slower mental abilities.

Does the Drug help those to get well faster when sick.

A critical one if this is to help one life forever.

A major one: why did the user revert to normal.

I believe the BO find this question to be a big bother.
They made a drug that caused the user to get younger. But by chance the effect was temporary reversed. It will not do. Again note that Hairaba appeared on the scene after this happened. I believe that instead of trying to cure Conan, she is looking for a way to end the reversal.

Did they really go completely normal in every way. Why did they go back. What changes if any happened because of this.

These three questions are important to solving the above problem.

The part of your post in response to contradiction #2, "Why the research has to be 'done in the wild' when controlled lab conditions would be better universally," was an incorrect explanation based on what is probably a misunderstanding of experimental procedure.

What you said is true as long as the lab does not bias the experiment. In this case I think it does. Remember the DRUG might work one of two ways.If it is purely chemical and only chemical then there would be no bias and what you say would be true.

But if even the smallest mind on matter does exist that the subject knowing too much could bias the experiment. In this case keeping the subject in the dark as much as possible is the only way to go. Any thing else would introduce bias. AS this experiment is set up random events must be allowed as it was a random event that cause the DRUG to temporary reverse.

What you described makes no sense. When testing the effects of some treatment, the subjects being experimented on are split up into two groups: An experimental group which receives the actual treatment, and a control group which receives a placebo, i.e a dummy treatment (a sugar pill is one example). There may need to be multiple control groups to control for several variables. A single blind experiment is meant to eliminate bias caused by the subjects knowing which group, experimental or control, they are in. In a single blind experiment, the subjects are not told what they are getting, only what they might be getting.
The first problem is the control group. Conan in the experimental group was left alone after being given the pill, so the control group should have the same conditions in order for the experiment to be unbiased. This means the B.O. should be handing out sugar pills which they tell the subjects should kill them, and then leaving them alone, so the conditions match Conan's conditions. Basically in order to control for this experiment, the B.O. needs to be leaving witnesses running around. That is obviously extremely idiotic.

Not necessarily. That could indeed be happening and no one would ever know. After all there are three possiblitys

1) The Drug Works: If this happens then the Takers are taken to be in a control school and thus vanish
2) The Drug does nothing. They note this, get as much info as they can and leave.
3) The Drug might not agree with the subject. It might make them very sick or kill them. In this case the takers are taken to a Bo hospital and watched closely.

As people are always disappearing and one sometimes needs to wait 24 hours before reporting there is no real danger. Also as they have this kind of drug, they would also have memory removable one as well, and might release selected one back to also watch them in the wild. The Kudo case was usually in that they knew if the DRUG worked they Shinichi could "be on a big case" and no one would miss him. I believe the BO watches the missing person reports and no Kudo I think they found interesting.  

Furthermore the whole experimental procedure is flawed. Conan was told the drug would kill him by the experimenters (aka Gin and Vodka), so Conan would know he is in the experimental group since the drug didn't kill him, but did something weird to him instead. This means the experiment is inherently biased anyway.

Not true. They said he was a test case. THEY NEVER SAID IT WOULD KILL. you might assume that, but remember giving a drug to erase memory would be far safer then leaving another body around. The way they did it was far too open. And that raises another question. Why did they not kill the guy who did the pay off as well. He is a potential witness to the "Killing". Why blow one up and not another?

Finally, Conan shrunk right away. There is no continued reason for the B.O. to let him wander around, because the drug already did what it was supposed to do. They can easily take him to some lab, lock him up, and perform additional behavioral and physiological tests in safety. If they need to create situations where Conan can somehow affect reality, then they can set up experiments. Here's one potential example: the floor will be electrified when a tone sounds and if Conan can affect reality to avoid a negative stimulus, the experimenters will expect the electrifier to short circuit or something mysterious will happen that will keep Conan from being shocked. Of course I think the whole premise of Conan altering reality is asinine.

What If I right. What if the drug does indeed help the user change reality.Here is your suggestion. Conan is tested and probed. Unlike it the wild where the subject might not know it is going on, here there is not question. Conan is too smart not to figure out that not only is he being tested but why. Once he figures out he can shape reality as he wishes. Well you tell me what happens next. That might explain to you why putting Conan in such a state is a very bad idea.

A better question is what harm has happened?

Long list coming up.
1: Conan's "removal" of the exploding briefcase from the train meant that Gin and Vodka failed to silence the exchange lady. She gave information to the police about the existence of the B.O. Even if the police can't do anything with the low level of info it's a start.

But is that not a better result that if they had succeed? Yes the police got a report about two person who tried to blow up a train. Questionable about how reliable her testimony will be as she might have technical been committing a crime. There is a good chance she will lie about the encounter to avoid her likely punishment. In other words no real harm done.

Now that look at this from Success of blowing up the train. First major Law enforcement agencies Now know about a criminal Organization that is very organized, as this crime had to be well planned. Next the series ends, unless it is one of those nobody could survive this. Examination of the bomb will lead to learning about the bomb maker and maybe their name. It might cause them to take a much closer look at other "accidents' getting more clues. I believe this should show that the BO might have been shooting them self in the foot if they had succeed. As according to you the BO does not leave clue, I would think a destroyed train would indeed leave lots of clues. Also according to you the BO is not  trying to destroy them self, yet this act does exactly that. Your turn to explain why the BO would take such a chance to give so many clues about them.

2: Gin had to shoot himself on the rooftop of the Haido city hotel, even if he escaped, it would put even him out of action temporarily because of blood loss and the time needed for general recovery. Also, his arm runs the risk of being permanently damaged. Finally, the B.O. couldn't predict that someone wouldn't come up to the rooftop, collect blood samples, and discover Gin's blood-type and DNA from the blood left around.

I could and might at a later date pick apart these as well. But I will handle Gin.
Step one is this. His shot was a flesh wound to the shoulder, not his arm. As it ( at least to me ) is possible that Hairaba got hold a a needle from Conan, it could all be playing acting.. Again as you claim with Kir and Akai, why not a blank. At point blank range, it would look like the real thing without any of the real danger. Also Remember when he "shoots" ( as I am now skeptical about 'BO Caused' deaths ) Pisco, Gin does not show any sign of the previous shot pain.

The rest I might discuss later.

3: Vermouth was nearly captured because the FBI's plan which Conan helped out on. By sticking near Conan in disguise, Vermouth made herself vulnerable, which the FBI took advantage of. She was also put out of action temporarily with broken ribs and a shot leg.
4: Calvados was killed because of Vermouth's messed up plan.
5: Boss's phone number uncovered, opening possibility of it being traced.  
6: Kusudu Rikumichi forced to commit suicide because of Conan's finding him. FBI gets to keep the body and all his personal belongings.
7: Conan's plan to return Hidemi to the Org means that The FBI are now getting intelligence from the Org from Hidemi.

In my mind GIN not coming back to attack korogo at a later date speaks volumes.

That's because Vermouth saved his arse. See this post on page two of this page.

BUT the DRUG DOES change reality. If it did not Kudo would still be Kudo. It changed the reality of the DC world by making Kudo become Conan.

Obviously the drug changes reality by actually doing something, however this is a different matter than changing reality because Shinichi's mind somehow willed himself to shrink instead of die.

There is a plot hole as someone put it with Hairaba being the only one to tell us what the drug does. But her reliability is in question.
There is a file called the Girl made of lies which is about Hairaba
Hairaba escape from the room would be necessary for her research, and so the whole Pisco thing staged.
Gin shooting her in non vital area gives her a chance to find out if those wound are erased when she shrinks.

In fact I become skeptical about the whole BO talking to themselves. Some of that could be staged if they know they are being listened too.
Normally an author tries to  keep major plots secret but for a little foreshadowing. What Gosho doing makes me ask why. AS I do not think the story is so week that it needs this, again I ask why. Gosho might be trying to mislead us which is why he does this. Again I ask what is happening behind the scenes? I also find it interesting that you did not attack all of my post.

[/spoiler]We are lead to believe the Drug is meant to kill. But this is based on what one ( Hairaba. She so far is the only one who knows the truth and has said something. But she might be lying when she says the DRUG kills ) says. The real question is what is the truth about the drug.
This assumes that one of the main reasons of the BO existence is the DRUG, and what it really does.

How the drug works in the wild. Why the drug did not kill. How does the drug effect the one who take it and do not die. Does the drug effect their mental abilities. Does the Drug help those to get well faster when sick. A major one: why did the user revert to normal. Did they really go completely normal in every way. Why did they go back. What changes if any happened because of this.[/spoiler]

This stuff doesn't really matter to the contradictions at all.

Part two is Do we really know what the FBI, and CIA already know. It is possible that all Shinichi, Heiji, and maybe even Yuusaku know is already known. Note the Bo is still mostly still secret even though a few more now know about them. And if you are right  about the risk, then why has the BO not tried to Blow Up the FBI in japan?

We aren't sure what the FBI and the CIA know because Akai and Hidemi haven't exactly said everything about what they have learned. Hitting the FBI hard would create an international incident that couldn't easily be covered up since there would be a trail of dead bodies around. The BO doesn't want that because a bunch of dead FBI officers in a foreign country screams conspiracy coverup.

2) Why the research has to be "done in the wild" when controlled lab conditions would be better universally.  ("It wouldn't work in a controlled environment" is an unacceptable answer. Why wouldn't it work?)

In certain experiments you need what are called blind test subjects. Shinichi Is certainly one of these. Yes He knows he took a drug that should have killed ( at least according to a few voices which might be lying ) and lived. But he does not know the true reason for the drug or why he was given it. If he was under 'controlled' conditions, it would rapidly become apparent that there is more going on then meets the eye. And he would no longer be Blind. The Blind can not directly or indierctly effect the experiment. The control might just by knowing.

Sorry, but that doesn't resolve the contraction of why not just kidnap him him and not tell him anything. Also the reason you put forward for why not controlled conditions doesn't make any sense - and even worse, they can't stop someone like Agasa or Conan himself from potentially throwing in variables to the experiment that might be detrimental - like the Baigar.

This is nice. I give you good valid reasons and you just hand wave them away. So repeating and explaining more and, next time do not just hand wave them away. Give me proof of your statements.

Start see my other thread about the drug. You can not just use one witness to prove a case. If the drug kills is completely based on what Hairaba and ONLY Hairaba says.

1) What benefit is there that justifies the risks of getting exposed when the boss is purposefully letting Shinichi run around and make trouble for the BO, team up with the FBI and the CIA, and discuss the org with other people like Heiji, Yuusaku, and the police.

A better question is what harm has happened. While the Org is likely world wide, Shinichi Parents moving him to America would have done two things. First the series if it continued would have been moved to America. Second any Bo Case's would have been few and far between.

Yuusaku even knowing is more interested in writing then detective. The BO must know this. So number one is no threat.

Heiji knowing has not brought an end to the BO. He might have told his dad to get the likely response of "I already knew" his helping has not prevented but for once (maybe) the BO plans. Yes It looked like they would attack Korogo in full force, but that did not happen. Again you are guilty of seeing thing at face value. In my mind GIN not coming back to attack korogo at a later date speaks volumes.We saw one side of the curtain, but we have not seen what is going on backstage. That attack seem staged to me.

As for the police, what real crimes have the BO done that are completely provable. They may or may not have complimented arson. They might have blackmailed unless again that was staged. For this argument we will stay completely canon. They might have killed Akai, but last time I check pretending to kill someone is not a crime. They did shot guns, but they killed no one doing it. Yes we have a back story about Jodie which may or may have not happened. Yes they had other do bank robber, but the money was returned. and I still question Akari's death. After all if one death can be faked , why not more. Also without proof the police (non Special ) would see what Kudo and Heiji have to say as conspiracy theory. Again No threat to their operations

Also realize this if the drug does not kill then the BO know all anyway. Hairaba appeared on the scene AFTER the drug reversed. I think that the BO was surprised by this and it needed closer inspection. You can disagree with this statement if you wish. BUT the DRUG DOES change reality. If it did not Kudo would still be Kudo. It changed the reality of the DC world by making Kudo become Conan. Again there is the question of the real purpose of the DRUG.It could be the DRUG changed reality by chemical means. But there is also the possibility that DRUG might have a kind of mind over matter thing., and if that last is true then KUDO being grabbed might change the expermint as he would know something was going on. He is just too smart not to figure it out.

Again another question how many sources about how the BO works. I think the way and the purposes of the BO are not what we think and we are being lead down a primrose path. Detective Conan to me is like AC's "They do it with mirrors" One needs to go backstage to see what is really going on.

(The Above was quoted as you did not COMPLETELY DISAGREE with some of my points

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Here is the simple numbered summary of why this theory is just plain bad:
1: There is no evidence to support this theory that the much simpler theory that the org doesn't know about Conan can't already explain adequately. (Occam's razor)

A quote for you from http://www.seanparnell.com/Hyperion Cantos/Web Pages/Occam's Razor.htm

This principle goes back at least as far as Aristotle who wrote "Nature operates in the shortest way possible."  Aristotle went too far in believing that experiment and observation were unnecessary.  The principle of simplicity works as a heuristic rule-of-thumb but some people quote it as if it is an axiom of physics.  It is not.  It can work well in philosophy or particle physics, but less often so in cosmology or psychology, where things usually turn out to be more complicated than you ever expected.  Perhaps a quote from Shakespeare would be more appropriate than Occam's razor: "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.".



Simplicity is subjective and the universe does not always have the same ideas about simplicity as we do.



The final word falls to Einstein, himself a master of the quotable one liner.  He warned,

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

Also see this for more examples where is theory does not always work

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101640

Another method of analysis, which gets used here sometimes, but which i haven't seen explicitly invoked, is Holmes's Dictum. I could go into a long exposition about that one, but to sum up: 1) you can't always be sure what's impossible, and 2) even when you think you can, not everyone will agree with you.

That works both ways. Are you going to prove that the DRUG does kill? That even though Akai escaped death, Akemi, Pisco Are REAL DEAD?
The way Akemi 'died' raises questions. She 'lived' long enough to give Conan info about the BO. Can you prove she was not a plant? Can you prove like in a court of law of any of the above?

2: It creates more contradictions than it supposedly resolves.
3: Explaining those contradictions means that the entire logical premise of the story is undermined as well as the principles of good storytelling, characterization, etc.

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I will keeping saying this. Gosho is leading you down a primrose path. It would not hurt would it to read the signs on the side of the path would it? I ask what is going on behind the scenes? Where is Gosho really going? Where are the twist the mystery stories normally have?.
In this case I am trying to get behind the curtain to see the man pulling the strings.

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[sstimson]

Well since it been 5 days and you have not typed one word to refute or answer me, Does that mean you concede the argument?

To make things easy for the next round, Lets start with some simple questions about

Pisco "death".

Spoiler:

Two questions

1) Why did Gin not make it look like a suicide? Text following suggest Gin left after pulling the trigger.
2) Who gave the order to "shoot" Pisco?. Was it the Boss? Gin said he got the order in person.

[Kor]

Well since it been 5 days and you have not typed one word to refute or answer me, Does that mean you concede the argument?

I think it actually means that Chekhov gave up trying to argue and show you wrong since you don't show any signs of understanding that your theory is very unlikely, even after the walls of text which Chekhov wrote. I for example, wouldn't continue to argue with someone on something that I know will be pointless since neither of us will ever agree with each other.

2) Who gave the order to "shoot" Pisco?. Was it the Boss? Gin said he got the order in person.

No, he said that "it's an order from THAT PERSON" (I think the subbed episodes of this case are far better than the scanlation)

[sstimson]

Well since it been 5 days and you have not typed one word to refute or answer me, Does that mean you concede the argument?

I think it actually means that Chekhov gave up trying to argue and show you wrong since you don't show any signs of understanding that your theory is very unlikely, even after the walls of text which Chekhov wrote. I for example, wouldn't continue to argue with someone on something that I know will be pointless since neither of us will ever agree with each other.

2) Who gave the order to "shoot" Pisco?. Was it the Boss? Gin said he got the order in person.

No, he said that "it's an order from THAT PERSON" (I think the subbed episodes of this case are far better than the scanlation)

Ok Abs need a translation again. Vol 242 page 14 Bottom Right.

I noticed you did not answer the first question:

1) Why did Gin not make it look like a suicide? Text following suggest Gin left after pulling the trigger.

Because the way it looks, it would be pure murder and again the BO giving out clues about them.


Any way back to the theory. Is there any good reason ( please not this would made the story bad type ) to believe EVERYTHING Hairaba told Conan? Because for my theory to be wrong ( The DRUG does not kill and Hairaba came to find out why the DRUG reversed ) most if not all of what she said MUST BE TRUE!

[Kor]

I noticed you did not answer the first question

Do I have to?

Any way back to the theory. Is there any good reason ( please not this would made the story bad type ) to believe EVERYTHING Hairaba told Conan? Because for my theory to be wrong ( The DRUG does not kill and Hairaba came to find out why the DRUG reversed ) most if not all of what she said MUST BE TRUE!

well.....but the main reason IS "story bad type"
Gosho lets us know that Haibara still hides information from Conan, yes, she is doing it in order to protect Conan. But after all the character development that Haibara has gone through, if at the end it is revealed that Haibara was lying to Conan all this time, not only that it will ruin her character, but after her develpment, it doesn't make sense.

My main problem with your theory is "the B.O. cases until now were just tests for Conan, and they know Conan is Shinichi and are letting him wonder around freely because" part.
Again, story-telling wise, it's just bad. All the suspense which we felt from the B.O. cases will be lost. All those "OMG IT'S THE PLOT AND THE BO AND GIN! IT'S SO AWESOME!" feelings are like that because of the suspense - Conan has to protect his identity while fighting against a crime organization, and if that organization finds out his identity, they will kill him and all of his friends.
If at the end, it is revealed that the B.O. already knew everything, well......that would be a huge dissapointment for everyone.

You really seem to want DC to be more like Higurashi, but Higurashi is very dark at times, while Conan is rather bright (even the B.O. cases seem rather bright). I'm pretty sure Higurashi isn't made for kids, but DC does.
Basically, if your series is meant also for kids, you're not supposed to make it too complicated for kids to understand. DC as it is, isn't complicated, but your theory is very complicated which is also why I don't see it happening.

[sstimson]

I noticed you did not answer the first question

Do I have to?

Any way back to the theory. Is there any good reason ( please not this would made the story bad type ) to believe EVERYTHING Hairaba told Conan? Because for my theory to be wrong ( The DRUG does not kill and Hairaba came to find out why the DRUG reversed ) most if not all of what she said MUST BE TRUE!

well.....but the main reason IS "story bad type"
Gosho lets us know that Haibara still hides information from Conan, yes, she is doing it in order to protect Conan. But after all the character development that Haibara has gone through, if at the end it is revealed that Haibara was lying to Conan all this time, not only that it will ruin her character, but after her develpment, it doesn't make sense.

My main problem with your theory is "the B.O. cases until now were just tests for Conan, and they know Conan is Shinichi and are letting him wonder around freely because" part.
Again, story-telling wise, it's just bad. All the suspense which we felt from the B.O. cases will be lost. All those "OMG IT'S THE PLOT AND THE BO AND GIN! IT'S SO AWESOME!" feelings are like that because of the suspense - Conan has to protect his identity while fighting against a crime organization, and if that organization finds out his identity, they will kill him and all of his friends.
If at the end, it is revealed that the B.O. already knew everything, well......that would be a huge dissapointment for everyone.

You really seem to want DC to be more like Higurashi, but Higurashi is very dark at times, while Conan is rather bright (even the B.O. cases seem rather bright). I'm pretty sure Higurashi isn't made for kids, but DC does.
Basically, if your series is meant also for kids, you're not supposed to make it too complicated for kids to understand. DC as it is, isn't complicated, but your theory is very complicated which is also why I don't see it happening.

Part 1:no but it would be nice for your option.
Part 2: In reality "makes story bad" in not a good logical argument. It is a Logical Fallacy maybe this one: Sentimental fallacy: it would be more pleasant if; therefore it ought to be; therefore it is

and as for my theory being complicated I found it really is simple. It based on Hairaba statement about Conan being part of a 50 years experiment and Hairaba lying to Conan about the Drug killing. It is more of a what if question.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Well since it been 5 days and you have not typed one word to refute or answer me, Does that mean you concede the argument?

I think it actually means that Chekhov gave up trying to argue and show you wrong since you don't show any signs of understanding that your theory is very unlikely, even after the walls of text which Chekhov wrote. I for example, wouldn't continue to argue with someone on something that I know will be pointless since neither of us will ever agree with each other.

Yeah, I kind of gave up arguing with sstimson because he failed to provide after multiple requests any evidence proving his theory that the much simpler theory that the org doesn't know about Conan can't already explain adequately. Sstimson doesn't seem to differentiate between possibilities with evidence to support them and those without evidence to support them; he seems to wrongly treat them as equal. Also, he failed to address all the contradictions adequately so that they don't make more contradictions or create logical inconsistencies with the manga. Finally he didn't seem to get why suddenly introducing things like an omniscient, infallible organization and a drug which induces the ability to control reality with your mind would in fact not make any sense given the genre of Detective Conan.

[sstimson]

Well since it been 5 days and you have not typed one word to refute or answer me, Does that mean you concede the argument?

I think it actually means that Chekhov gave up trying to argue and show you wrong since you don't show any signs of understanding that your theory is very unlikely, even after the walls of text which Chekhov wrote. I for example, wouldn't continue to argue with someone on something that I know will be pointless since neither of us will ever agree with each other.

Yeah, I kind of gave up arguing with sstimson because he failed to provide after multiple requests any evidence proving his theory that the much simpler theory that the org doesn't know about Conan can't already explain adequately. Also he failed to address all the contradictions adequately so that they don't make more contradictions or create logical inconsistencies with the manga. Finally he didn't seem to get why suddenly introducing things like an omniscient, infallible organization and a drug which induces the ability to control reality with your mind would in fact not make any sense given the genre of Detective Conan.

Logical Fallacies:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

Argument from fallacy: assumes that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion is false.

Is-ought problem: the inappropriate inference that because something is some way or other, so it ought to be that way

Naturalistic fallacy: a fallacy that claims that if something is natural, then it is good or right.

Nirvana fallacy: when solutions to problems are said not to be right because they are not perfect.

Demanding negative proof: attempting to avoid the burden of proof for some claim by demanding proof of the contrary from whoever questions that claim

Fallacy of many questions (complex question, fallacy of presupposition, loaded question, plurium interrogationum): someone asks a question that presupposes something that has not been proven or accepted by all the people involved. This fallacy is often used rhetorically, so that the question limits direct replies to those that serve the questioner's agenda.

Fallacy of the single cause ("joint effect", or "causal oversimplification"): occurs when it is assumed that there is one, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes.

Sentimental fallacy: it would be more pleasant if; therefore it ought to be; therefore it is

Appeal to tradition: where a thesis is deemed correct on the basis that it has a long-standing tradition behind it

Argumentum ad populum ("appeal to belief", "appeal to the majority", "appeal to the people"): where a proposition is claimed to be true solely because many people believe it to be true

You are guilty of the above Logical Fallacies. I will say that some of my arguements are also Fallacies.

This is a prior point. You claim the BO work only one way and that way only. I claim that the BO do not act that way therefore there is
no contradictions. If you make a statement BACK IT UP WITH FACTS that are facts and not either 'Because I say so" or facts that could be option.

My idea depends on two things. 1) Hairaba Lied. ( She has lied in the part. She could be lying when she tells Conan about the DRUG.
and Hairaba statement ( in her head ) about Conan being part of a 50 year old experiment.

Yes If Hairaba was telling the truth about the DRUG, then my theory stands on very shaky ground. We goofed last by not setting up ground rules. I tried to defend my theory by using your ideas and of course that was doomed to failure. So this time I start simply: Could Hairaba have been lying to Conan about the DRUG?

If I use a fallacies to make a point call me on it as I just did to you.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Sstimson, when you quote random Wikipedia articles or TV tropes instead of providing evidence or refuting each of the contradictions, it seems to me like you are trying to avoid doing it because you can't. The best way to win, so to speak, is to tackle my request head on and provide the evidence and disprove all the contradictions. Here is what you should do.

Make a bullet point list of decisive evidence which the theory that the org doesn't know Shinichi=Conan can't explain and that your theory can. Linking to the manga pages and typing out the quotes is the best way to go. Don't just post things where you think there is an alternative interpretation, post hard evidence which implies that your interpretation is correct and the other explanation is wrong. (For example: Haibara's fifty years quote- she might be lying as you said, but she might not be. You need evidence from the manga which says she is lying about the fifty years old project. That is an example of the kind of evidence I'm asking for.)

Go through to that post of contradictions and go through all of them and explain how to resolve all them. Just list them one through eight and reply to each.

One last request, before you give evidence or contradictions, try to think about how I might argue against your points. If you think I could too easily disprove it or provide evidence against it, don't use it. Aim for the solidest points, the most difficult ones to argue against. Otherwise it will make your theory look weak and take up space.

[Akonyl]

~tHe CaLLoUt~

even though I hate saying it I believe the situation calls for it.