Mafia Mafia Mafia! (New Thread Exists)

[Tanner-kun]

alright, I'm pulling a ranger. Not just because it gets things rolling, but if it works out, I think it's a gamble I'm willing to make. Besides, it's fun to go all out at the start.

Through some sort of divine providence, I'm the Trickster, Eisuke
(Don't hate me, bro)

In this game, the only ways for people to be saved from murder during the night are tricking, ran protection, makoto protection, agasa's watch and araide. Half of these are impossible, as Ran didn't sacrifice herself, Makoto can't be in japan yet, and Agasa hasn't had a day yet to lend his watch to anyone. This leaves only Araide and the Trickster to save a life during the first night.

22 (or more) possible roles, 11 other players, there's basically only a 50% chance that Araide even exists to save somebody, even less if Vermouth exists and happened to disguise as him.

With that said, last night I decided to trick Abs. Yes, it was a shot in the dark, however for the first night I figured that because there would be no reason to use a special killing ability, there was a high chance of someone who posts regularly being the assigned killer. So, I leaned away from people who were in the last game but didn't post much (ctu, beastly) and the people who I haven't seen much (commi-ninja) and I went with Abs.

By this line of reasoning, I believe that we should lynch Abs, as he is the most likely person at the point to be in the BO.

Also, yes, I realize that I'm putting myself out in the open here. However, if I am lynched today, realize that every person who votes to kill me will be even more of a suspect to be in the BO, especially Abs, as you'll realize I was actually telling the truth. But, I would much rather not be lynched today, if you want to lynch me for being wrong feel free to do so tomorrow. Under the circumstances of me being right about this, it would also be great if Agasa gave me the watch or someone protected me, although if a sniper is in the game they may very well use it on me tonight.

tldr: vote Abs.

seems extremly likely btw araid should be in the game since nobody died and he saved me from the bo thanks agen i think its better to trust than distrust so lets go with abs sorry abs

[Conia]

50/50 chances?

You are much of a gambler Akonyl

[Akonyl]

alright, I'm pulling a ranger. Not just because it gets things rolling, but if it works out, I think it's a gamble I'm willing to make. Besides, it's fun to go all out at the start.

Through some sort of divine providence, I'm the Trickster, Eisuke
(Don't hate me, bro)

In this game, the only ways for people to be saved from murder during the night are tricking, ran protection, makoto protection, agasa's watch and araide. Half of these are impossible, as Ran didn't sacrifice herself, Makoto can't be in japan yet, and Agasa hasn't had a day yet to lend his watch to anyone. This leaves only Araide and the Trickster to save a life during the first night.

22 (or more) possible roles, 11 other players, there's basically only a 50% chance that Araide even exists to save somebody, even less if Vermouth exists and happened to disguise as him.

With that said, last night I decided to trick Abs. Yes, it was a shot in the dark, however for the first night I figured that because there would be no reason to use a special killing ability, there was a high chance of someone who posts regularly being the assigned killer. So, I leaned away from people who were in the last game but didn't post much (ctu, beastly) and the people who I haven't seen much (commi-ninja) and I went with Abs.

By this line of reasoning, I believe that we should lynch Abs, as he is the most likely person at the point to be in the BO.

Also, yes, I realize that I'm putting myself out in the open here. However, if I am lynched today, realize that every person who votes to kill me will be even more of a suspect to be in the BO, especially Abs, as you'll realize I was actually telling the truth. But, I would much rather not be lynched today, if you want to lynch me for being wrong feel free to do so tomorrow. Under the circumstances of me being right about this, it would also be great if Agasa gave me the watch or someone protected me, although if a sniper is in the game they may very well use it on me tonight.

tldr: vote Abs.

seems extremly likely btw araid should be in the game since nobody died and he saved me from the bo thanks agen i think its better to trust than distrust so lets go with abs sorry abs

my point is that araide doesn't have to be in the game, and I believe the reason nobody died was because I tricked Abs, who happened to be the appointed mafia killer that night.

And yes conia, I live life on the edge.

edit: also, it's not a 50/50 chance I'm right, it's a bit higher than that. For me to not be wrong, araide would both have to exist, and heal the correct person. The 50/50 is solely that Araide exists, there's a further ~10% chance that he healed the person that the BO attacked, making it about a 5% chance total that he exists and was the cause of the non-death, rather than me.

[Callid]

Uhmm...

I just wanted to announce that your way of thinking isn't exactly right, Akonyl. Although the roles were randomly given, I chose beforehand which roles were possible (otherwise we could end up with a strong BO and only each four FBI and police on the other side, along with Sonoko).
Actually the chance of Araide being in is higher, because I made sure that there's at least one protective role in the game (we have three, two protectors and Araide). On the other hand, it's true that there are many roles (35, if you count both Ai variants), so the effects may cancel each other out.
But, of course, I know if he's in, so I have difficulties calculating the chance because I know which of the two possibilities is 100% right.

Yet I encourage actions like the one of Akonyl. They make the game more interesting, even if they fail.

[Tanner-kun]

that also a reason i wouldnt die so the likely out comes are

araide saved someone
or
akonyl tricked the bo

the bo might not of even targeted me with is most likely with how much i talk about being the first to die

so im going with akonyl seems like are best chance then picking someone randomly

[Akonyl]

Eh, even if my percentages aren't exactly right I still think it's the right direction.

This will have one of 4 outcomes:
1) I'm right, and am praised a hero as the town continues to victory
2) I'm right, and am praised a hero until I'm sniped in the head tonight
3) I'm right, but am lynched anyway, and I get to cackle vengefully to myself as the town leads itself to ruin
4) I'm wrong and I feel like a total ass.

I like those odds.

[CTU]

Eh, even if my percentages aren't exactly right I still think it's the right direction.

This will have one of 4 outcomes:
1) I'm right, and am praised a hero as the town continues to victory
2) I'm right, and am praised a hero until I'm sniped in the head tonight
3) I'm right, but am lynched anyway, and I get to cackle vengefully to myself as the town leads itself to ruin
4) I'm wrong and I feel like a total ass.

I like those odds.

5: your wrong and you get lynched
6:your wrong and the BO takes you out

So your odds are not as good as you hope they are

[Akonyl]

Eh, even if my percentages aren't exactly right I still think it's the right direction.

This will have one of 4 outcomes:
1) I'm right, and am praised a hero as the town continues to victory
2) I'm right, and am praised a hero until I'm sniped in the head tonight
3) I'm right, but am lynched anyway, and I get to cackle vengefully to myself as the town leads itself to ruin
4) I'm wrong and I feel like a total ass.

I like those odds.

5: your wrong and you get lynched
6:your wrong and the BO takes you out

So your odds are not as good as you hope they are

I you truly believe those are possibilities!

[Tanner-kun]

Eh, even if my percentages aren't exactly right I still think it's the right direction.

This will have one of 4 outcomes:
1) I'm right, and am praised a hero as the town continues to victory
2) I'm right, and am praised a hero until I'm sniped in the head tonight
3) I'm right, but am lynched anyway, and I get to cackle vengefully to myself as the town leads itself to ruin
4) I'm wrong and I feel like a total ass.

I like those odds.

5: your wrong and you get lynched
6:your wrong and the BO takes you out

So your odds are not as good as you hope they are

I you truly believe those are possibilities!

possable but unlikely

the odds should be about

abs being black org 66.66666 repeated
abs not black org 33.33333 repeated

[Sakina]

Well, personally I don't like to go by percentages.  That's just me.  I also tend to not believe people who announce their roles.  So because Akonyl announced their role, I think they're a BO member.  *nodnod*  Or perhaps they're Vermouth disguising herself as Eisuke so that only half of it is a lie.

[Akonyl]

So rather than believe the only person who's come up with any reasoning to what happened during the night, you choose to distrust me solely because my reveal rubbed you the wrong way, seems a bit silly to me.

I'd also like to point out that I like how the first two people to disagree with me were the BO last game

[Tanner-kun]

i still think abs is a better target since anokyl gave eviedance to support why even if it isnt trust worthy plus im pretty sure anokyl being the last game mod wouldnt put herself out there like ranger did and remember when we killed ranger manguluva also died not saying akonyl is akai but its likely that she is telling the truth and if we kill her we lose kaito witch leads to some problems so lets go with abs and if they are not bo well get akonyl and after that youd probly get me for defending akonyl

[CTU]

So rather than believe the only person who's come up with any reasoning to what happened during the night, you choose to distrust me solely because my reveal rubbed you the wrong way, seems a bit silly to me.

I'd also like to point out that I like how the first two people to disagree with me were the BO last game

Well you coming up with ideas about what happened dose not make me distrust you....it just makes you a bigger threat to the Org

[Akonyl]

i still think abs is a better target since anokyl gave eviedance to support why even if it isnt trust worthy plus im pretty sure anokyl being the last game mod wouldnt put herself out there like ranger did and remember when we killed ranger manguluva also died not saying akonyl is akai but its likely that she is telling the truth and if we kill her we lose kaito witch leads to some problems so lets go with abs and if they are not bo well get akonyl and after that youd probly get me for defending akonyl

wrong pronouns there

and ctu, how big a threat I am doesn't matter to me, as I said earlier I live life on the edge.

edit: my quotes fell off somehow.

[Tanner-kun]

i still think abs is a better target since anokyl gave eviedance to support why even if it isnt trust worthy plus im pretty sure anokyl being the last game mod wouldnt put herself out there like ranger did and remember when we killed ranger manguluva also died not saying akonyl is akai but its likely that she is telling the truth and if we kill her we lose kaito witch leads to some problems so lets go with abs and if they are not bo well get akonyl and after that youd probly get me for defending akonyl
wrong pronouns there

and ctu, how big a threat I am doesn't matter to me, as I said earlier I live life on the edge.

ok thank for fixing that and i also live my life on the line untell i trip and fall off of it