ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round - DETECTIVES AND CIVILIANS WIN!

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Kaito Lady
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Kaito Lady »

"..."
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 3)

Post by shinichi'sapprentice »

Raiden you're not the spy!;_;

*loads rifle*

*disappears*
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jecka »

RAIDEN NOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Raiden »

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. . .
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shinichi'sapprentice wrote:Raiden you're not the spy!;_;
I successfully infiltrated the town as civilian. I even fooled the GM! 8D *Feigns own death and fades into the shadows to spy on everyone* >:3
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Go, go detectives & fellow townies! *\o/*
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Iwamoto Yuri »

I'll avenge you my sweet Godot T^T
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by MDavid »

For today 3 of my votes are for exchange.

The people that would probably get them are popular enough not to need them that much anyway. ;D

Also I'm not expecting votes in return of statistics anymore, since that clearly failed. I may post some thoughts after some sleep, but I don't want to accidentally put the detectives in danger, so you ask me.
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Jd-
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jd- »

I... actually thought KL was one of the Detectives. :'(

Not only is it bad for us to keep losing civilians... the amount of possible people to trust is also decreasing. I'll come up with something for today.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Stopwatch »

I'm so sorry D:. I was distracted doing other stuff and didn't even register when phase change was :|.

Anyway, I'm going to try not to make the same mistake again.

Raiden ↪ +1 Fujiwara, +1 Kaito Lady, +2 Jd-, +1 Jellitto, +1 Osaka Detective
Kaito Lady ↪ +1 Iwamoto Yuri, +1 MoonRaven, +2 Jd-, +1 Nemomon

Still wondering if there's a way to interpret votes on those killed at night.

@Jd-: Later than normal for one of your "plans", isn't it? I mean, usually you come up with stuff earlier whereas this time it was just about securing your survival, you know? I hope whatever you come up with is interesting though :).
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jd- »

Foremost, my recommendation for today, for everyone, is this:

ONLY GIVE A +4 AND A +1 FOR TODAY'S VOTES.

Explanation to follow, just want to get the word out now in case people only check in a couple of times. Please hang in there just a bit and make sure you hear me out, if you don't mind. I'll type the full explanation now.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Nemomon »

Hmm..

What's a percent chance that the one who comes with a plan actually is a spy that thinks how to get rid of players, Jd-?
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
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I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jd- »

Nemomon wrote:Hmm..

What's a percent chance that the one who comes with a plan actually is a spy that thinks how to get rid of players, Jd-?
It's certainly not impossible. My current theory follows something similar. Next post will hopefully give us some ideas a team on how to proceed. If I were the Spy, personally, I would have already used the strategy I'm about to mention. This is probably our last chance to meaningfully turn things around. One minute, post inbound.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jd- »

For us to have any chance at stopping the bleeding here, we need a coordinated effort. Even if some of us disagree on exactly "who" will be the subject of this idea, I don' think we can really disagree that something needs to be done and that we need to be in charge of the one person we're taking out each day with the arrests.

First of all, let's all agree on one important thing: If three people are being taken out of the game every day, we are responsible--as civilians--for one of those people who are being eliminated. There is a very slim chance of the Spies or even the Detectives of being caught off-guard and eliminated by the votes in a normal campaign. In other words, the real key to winning this isn't just to support each other with our votes, but to work together to make sure we are responsible for every arrest that takes place. We can't leave it to chance anymore, because the only people that are going to be voted out are civilians--the Spies are too clever to be arrested through inaction.

Now, onto the important part: To this point in the game, I have a suspicion that one of the spies has been using my information to decide on which "very, very likely Civilians/Detectives" to kill. Firstly, it was Togop from Day 1, and now Raiden from Day 2. Both of the players I singled out as trusting were killed that day. I think one of the two spies may be using people who they are sure are civilians to out people they aren't so sure about. So long as they don't kill us, they know we'll just keep naming targets for them and there's a very small chance of a voting sneak attack that would suddenly arrest them. At first, I wasn't going to say anything about Raiden being a civilian. On the one hand, I was feeling sure that Raiden was a civilian, as I'm sure some others did as well, and I wanted to make sure he got enough votes to survive the phase. However, I had a feeling if I mentioned him, he'd definitely be killed by the person we'll call Spy A. It's possible that Spy A who killed Raiden on Day 2 isn't the one who killed Togop on Day 1. I decided to take the risk to see if we'd get a repeat of Day 1, and so, here we are.

Whether I'm right about that part or not, I would actually expect one of the spies to be one of the people who has voted for me both times. There's no definitive proof of this, naturally, but if I were the Spy, I would definitely be trying to blend in with the civilians and voting for the most prominent civilians on the board so that no suspicions would be garnered later.

This is the part where a potential problem has to be addressed: As far as behavior is concerned, the Spies and Detectives are actually almost identical, especially at this stage in the game. I hesitate to point this out because, of course, now the Detectives will want to be a discreet as possible. We may end up finding a Detective instead. Unfortunately, that's always an inherent problem for civilians in the game. We just have to think-tank this thing to hopefully weigh the odds in our favor.

So, I may be wrong (the odds are against any assertion we can make at this stage, really), but we can at least explore one possibility. Here are the results so far for consideration, from people who have voted for me both times:

Day 1 votes for me: Jd- ↪ +1 dumytru, +1 Fujiwara, +1 Iwamoto Yuri, +3 Osaka Detective

Day 2 votes for me: Jd- ↪ +2 dumytru, +1 Fujiwara, +1 Iwamoto Yuri, +2 Osaka Detective

Fujiwara did so through an agreement we made on Day 1. Of note is that she did volunteer for the agreement herself, so she may be a civilian ensuring her survival or a Spy doing so. I'm not inclined to believe she's a Spy. Anything's possible, but her actions so far are applicable to both a civilian and a Spy. If she is a civilian (or more than that), she'll be invaluable to the civilian effort.

As far as dumytru and Yuri, I solicited votes from dumytru myself, so his actions aren't really suspicious. Yuri may well just believe me to be civilian, so I'm not suspicious of her at this stage either. If one of them is a Spy, they are doing a good job at blending in.

Now, onto Osaka Detective... This one is a puzzler. Is Osaka Detective a Spy, a civilian, or a Detective? The unfortunate part of this is that there is absolutely no way to be sure. I didn't solicit the votes directly, so either Osaka Detective is a civilian/Detective who recognizes I'm trustworthy, or a Spy trying to gain my trust. When I started to think about what Spy A would do, that is the strategy I would have used: stay close to a certain player that is being open with their feelings on others and who they trust, give them votes so I wouldn't turn against them until it was too late (if ever), while also eliminating possible allies and thus potential detectives that I mention. But, regardless, there is a way that we can benefit even from being wrong here.

Here is how I see this situation:

If Osaka Detective is a Spy, obviously we'll finally have the momentum on our side and we don't need any further explanation. Also, don't forget that if we arrest a Spy right now, their kill will be stopped. That means we'll lose, at most, just one civilian this phase.

If Osaka Detective is a Detective, we can get two solid leads to go on. Tomorrow, we can re-use this strategy I'm about to mention later in this post to have an actual shot at getting a Spy with the vote. As soon as we stop even ONE Spy, the momentum will be entirely in our favor. If Osaka Detective is a Detective and sacrifices for us and gives us the two investigation results so far... we have a real shot.

If Osaka Detective is a civilian, all we've done is just rule out one possibility and gotten the same result we would have gotten anyway. At least this way we have some sort of path.

Osaka Detective, please read this!

If this plan goes ahead and you are the one to be arrested and are the Detective, please find a way to mention the people you "trust" that you have proven are NOT the Spy should you really be the Detective. Right now, the game is (I think, off-hand) 11 Civilians/Detectives vs. 2 Spies. If you are arrested and two people go down through kills, the game will be 8v2. If you are a Detective, we will have a chance to use this strategy again tomorrow with your confirmed intel from your investigations. This will give us a huge advantage going forward, even if we will only have one Detective keeping us afloat.

If you are just a civilian, please accept my apologies. This is the only idea I have right now to get an advantage for our side. You've given me a lot of votes so far, so hopefully you'll trust that this is simply my last ditch effort to stop us from getting overrun. We are really out of phases if we continue bleeding out like this.

To the Detectives in general:

If you read the posts over today and you feel you are definitely going to be voted out by us, don't take it personally. We're all in a tough situation. However, please do one thing... Make a post indicating that there are certain people you trust. These should be anyone that you have gotten as "NOT a Spy" throughout the game so far.

ALSO KEEP IN MIND: You could die at any time. Please find a way, somehow, to mention people you "trust" that you've discovered are NOT the Spy through your investigations. Qualify it however you have to in your post, but once you die, the living civilians will need your information to have any chance at taking out the Spies. BUT, PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT TO EXPOSE YOURSELF UNNECESSARILY.


In the next post, I'll be starting a tally so we know where everyone stands for this round. To successfully take control of the voting, we have to all work together. Please POST with the updated tally with your intended votes so that we know who you will vote for and we won't accidentally vote for the wrong people. Anyone who goes off the tracks without explanation should be considered a suspect in my eyes, because continuing on the current path is obviously getting us nowhere.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jd- »

VOTING TALLY IDEA, PLEASE READ!

For this to work, we need to vote in the form of +4 and +1 and spread the votes around. Even if a Spy tries to hijack this, so long as no one votes for the decided target, there should be no way for them to avoid the arrest so long as we all work together. If you trust my idea laid out in THIS EARLIER POST, we need everyone to give a +4 vote and a +1 vote. Everyone should finish this phase with at least +2 votes, but Osaka Detective should receive NO VOTES. This is not to single out Osaka Detective unnecessarily, but possibly give us a chance going forward.

PLEASE SIGN-UP WITH YOUR VOTES BELOW IN ANY OF THE BLANK SPACES STILL AVAILABLE AS OF THE LATEST POST BY ANOTHER PLAYER

Jd- is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Iwamoto Yuri is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
shinichi'sapprentice is receiving +4 VOTES from Jd- and +1 VOTE from ___________
Fujiwara is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from Jd-
MoonRaven is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Jecka is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Jellitto is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Raifuujin is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Nemomon is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
MDavid is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
dumytru is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Stopwatch is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Osaka Detective should NOT receive any votes for this strategy. Please read here for more information.


If it looks like not everyone will respond, myself and a few others can split out +4 votes to those that won't be receiving the requisite +4 votes to ensure the strategy still works and no tie happens. If someone outright disrupts the arrest effort without prior explanation, well, that's obviously not good.

You are, of course, completely free to disagree with me. Please acknowledge, however, that we do not have much time to lose and if we lose another 3 Civilians (and likely a Detective) without any direction, we may not have any chance to win. Even if we get to the Lynching Rounds later, we may not be able to manage a victory simply from not having the right numbers/information. In other words...

If we do not have a concentrated voting effort like this for this phase, there is a ZERO percent chance that we are going to arrest a Spy this phase. They just aren't going to let it happen. It will be a civilian who doesn't vote or someone who hasn't campaigned at all.
Nemomon
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Nemomon »

Ok, I will play this game. I will give my +4 to Moony, and +1 to Shinichi's Apprentice.
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
When I grow older you will see me rescue you
I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round (Day 2)

Post by Jd- »

Update here. Future voters, feel free to quote the text below and add your votes in to make it easy for everyone to keep track.

Jd- is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Iwamoto Yuri is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
shinichi'sapprentice is receiving +4 VOTES from Jd- and +1 VOTE from Nemomon
Fujiwara is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from Jd-
MoonRaven is receiving +4 VOTES from Nemomon and +1 VOTE from ___________
Jecka is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Jellitto is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Raifuujin is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Nemomon is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
MDavid is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
dumytru is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Stopwatch is receiving +4 VOTES from ___________ and +1 VOTE from ___________
Osaka Detective should NOT receive any votes for this strategy. Please read here for more information.
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