Espionage - Round 5 (Spy and Informants Win)

[Iwamoto Yuri]

damn, I forgot to vote... *fell asleep after work*
well... it really can't be helped :/

[Jecka]

I knew Jellitto was a good guy D:
Poor Jellitto

[Kleene Onigiri]

Whoops, forgot to vote too D:

[dumytru]

I have an interesting theory on why the spy didn't kill in D2.
I won't say it right now.
Why? I want to see if anybody else noticed it and I'm on my phone, it'll take to much to write it down.

I'm sure on one thing though, we have to start disscussing, otherwise it's a sure win for the spy. If we keep
tying and the spy keeps killing we're bound to lose.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

heh... we finally have someone new talking here, eh?

...

Seems that we are not doing too well with two failed lynches.

i wouldn't call it failed since you yourself almost caused the death of a civilian in Day 2. which, well, today, as you said, died anyway.

---

and, oi, MoonRaven, now that you lived another day, why don't you tell us what you think? i advised you to write things down, because you seem to have a lot in your mind. but you said you do take notes. so i'm gonna repeat Jellitto's last will and testament T_T...

...

If you think some people have been acting weird, why not tell us who? You wanted to discuss these things right?

I don't think you'll be dead just from analysing people's actions. In my opinion it would be better if you would post something like that and then people you suspect could try to defend themselves by explaining.

You don't have to be sorry of suspecting me, it's a part of the game, but I would be interested to hear why.

so, go ahead and talk. you have half a day to do so. i'm gonna stay up as late as i can because Stopwatch promised to be able to finally talk more this phase. and hurry up and ace your finals and join the discussion, Togop! xD and is the hype in the manga almost done, so Fujiwara can come down here, too? xD

and oh, hey dumytru posted before me ↑...
Yuri Iwamoto = not spy
dumytru
Jecka

[Stopwatch]

I don't want to talk more ;_;.

...but okay, it's better than French verb conjugation ^^;.

First thing, though I find it more likely the Spy is one of the more active people anyway, we need to make sure that no one gets away with just blending in because I could easily be wrong and people being inactive for rl reasons can happen to any role. Inactivity hasn't been too bad, but y'know.

I'm thinking perhaps a questionnaire for everyone to answer, with questions like, "who is your main suspect atm and why?" and, "do you spot any potential links between players?". If anyone else has any more suggestions for questions please come forward with them and I'll put them all together for everyone to answer (or if someone else can do fancy formatting that would be neat *_*).

The thing about MoonRaven is that yes, I think she's an Informant and it's partly because on D1 I spotted a potential Order for PhantomWriter and MoonRaven to be Informants and added to their behaviour and activity it made sense. Of course, then PhantomWriter turned out to actually be an Informant, which further backed things up. However, if she isn't then I'm basically taking focus away from the actual Informant and Spy so I'm probably going to say less about MoonRaven from now on, though the suspicion still stands.

[Fujiwara]

and is the hype in the manga almost done, so Fujiwara can come down here, too? xD

The hype does not just end. :V

But I have nonetheless a bit of time now, and instead of sleeping (as I should), here I am. Sleep is for the weak!

Questionnaire:

I'm thinking perhaps a questionnaire for everyone to answer, with questions like, "who is your main suspect atm and why?" and, "do you spot any potential links between players?". If anyone else has any more suggestions for questions please come forward with them and I'll put them all together for everyone to answer (or if someone else can do fancy formatting that would be neat *_*).

I second the proposition! I extended the questionnaire a tiny bit and gave it some fancy formatting, as per your request. I think it'd be really neat if everyone could answer, so we have something more to work with - and, of course, feel free to suggest additional questions!

Spoiler: Questionnaire template

Q1: Who is your main suspect for the Spy at the moment and why?

A: Your answer here.

Q2: Who is your main suspect for the Informant at the moment and why?

A: Your answer here.

Q3: Do you spot any potential links between players?

A: Your answer here.

And, of course, I shall lead by example, so here are my answers:

Spoiler: Questionnaire template

Q1: Who is your main suspect for the Spy at the moment and why?

A: Kleene Onigiri. She's been unusually quiet since Prep Phase and just seems different from usual. Not saying it's a very strong lead - I'm really lacking those at the moment, but that's all I have. *shrugs*

Q2: Who is your main suspect for the Informant at the moment and why?

A: Difficult. I really have no clue. I'm gonna leave this one empty for now, because while I'm suspicious of everyone, no one seems to stick out as noticeably more informant-like in my eyes.

Q3: Do you spot any potential links between players?

A: Hmm, let's see ... both Stop and SA each voted for the same player on all 3 days (Moon in Stop's case, me in SA's case). MoonRaven and RainHeaven voted for the same two players on Day 1 & 2 (Phantom on Day 1, Jelly on Day 2).
Not a lot to work with, here. ^^*

Investigate Results:
Day 2 Investigate: Jelly is not the Spy
Day 3 Investigate: SA is not the Spy

[MoonRaven]

I'll post twice...

Okay, I've been reading the posts again and again and I have a couple of things to say.

@SA: Yeah, I'm going to post some of my thoughts in the next post. I shall answer to that questionnaire too. I've been overly cautious yesterday. I guess the tie shook m a bit. but now when I've tied for the second time I've decided what the hell, I shall tell everything I have in my mind thought it's not much. I rather be killed by spy than my fellow civilians anyways(don't we all?).
@Stop: My writings were like PhanttomWriters? Okay... I probably should go to read them again then... I have no idea what could the order be. Speaking of which... didn't someone say during day two that they might have an idea of what the order might be... Damn I forgot the name, I'll look it up for my next post. But if in your opinion there were similarities between me and PW's posts, wouldn't it make sense for me to recognize them as a fellow informant? In that case my vote for them wouldn't make any sense. Why would I kill my ally?
@Fuji: Potential link between me and RainHeaven? Nope. That was a coincidence. I can assure you.(why does that sound so unconvincing?)

Anyways, I shall throw my caution tot he wind now and start typing up the next post with everything I've thought up so far. Might take some time.

[Fujiwara]

@Fuji: Potential link between me and RainHeaven? Nope. That was a coincidence. I can assure you.(why does that sound so unconvincing?)

I was just answering the questionnaire to the best of my ability. As I said, it's nothing too noteworthy. I wouldn't expect the spy and informant to vote the same anyway. Don't get paranoid just because I mentioned your name.

[MoonRaven]

I'm overly paranoid and I can't help it. first time playing and all so I don't want to get killed. *goes to look for posts in the thread* see you again. the big post is still in process. I had to eat.

[MoonRaven]

In a way this is more like a sum up of things. But nevertheless, let's start!

Facts we all have in the beginning of the game:
-15 players
-1 spy
-1 detective
-2 informants
-11 civilians
-7 names per list
-the names of the detective and informants on every list
-no names revealed upon civilian's death

Situation now:
-12 players
-1 spy
-1 detective
-1 informant
-9 civilians

About voting:

Players who changed their vote on each round(not counting self-voters):
-miyano_shiho (RoboG55, Togop, MoonRaven)
-dumytru (RainHeaven, shinichi'sapprentice, miyano_shiho)
-Jecka (PhantomWriter, MoonRaven, dumytru)
-Fuji (Kleene Onigiri, Togop, Yuri Iwamoto)
-Jellitto (Kleene Onigiri, dumytru, Yuri Iwamoto)

Players who vote the same on each round:
-Shinichi'sapprentice (Fujiwara)
-Stopwatch (MoonRaven)

Self-votes:
-Togop (Day 1)
-Yuri Iwamoto (Day 3)
-Kleene Onigiri (Day 3)

What I think:
Based on these results I have a couple of things in my mind.

-First is what can be deducted on PhantomWriter's (un)fortunate loss. Since PW was surprisingly plainly indentified as a informant I think that people who vote them are unlikely to be on the spy-side because it doesn't make sense for them to vote for PW since they are on the same side. This includes RainHeaven, MoonRaven(yes, I speak in third person now) and Jecka. The people who didn't vote PW are more likely to be evil since after all three people got a hunch that something was wrong and voted Phantom.

-Then there's the two people who have voted the same person on every round this far... They obviously have pretty good leads or then they are trying to stir the soup(I doubt this latter one). SA has already stated why he(?) suspects Fuji but is waiting for more discussion which we shall wait and Stopwatch told a while ago that MoonRaven's first posts were similar to PhantomWriter's.

-People who have changed their votes on each round. Nothing special yet. It is a bit weird to change one's mind for each round but I don't go into this yet. I almost did the same when I considered changing my vote from Jellitto to someone else.

-Self-votes. Yuri and Kleene both say that they forgot to vote. Plausible. Togop didn't vote on day one because 'he didn't have anyone to vote for'. While all of those are suspicious I doubt that either of them are spy. After all spy did kill on Day 3. It's very unlikely for the spy to waste their vote and opportunity to get another player out while still using the Kill(unless that's their strategy to confuse us). Togop in the other hand... The first day votes were shots in the dark pretty much for all of us just like Kill was. While it was risky for Togop for not vote anyone and thus getting an extra vote for themselves, it inclines me to think that they're not a spy. The spy wouldn't take such a risk in the early game, especially on a silent day. If even one or two people were to vote them, the game would end immediately and no one is that suicidal. It simply isn't the point of this game.

-After the silence on Day 1 I side with Fuji that miyano_shiho is very unlikely to be spy.

Fake investigation:

Who sided and were against FI:
-SA(sided, suggested)
-Fuji(unsure first, but okay later)
-PW(not clear opinion)
-Togop(needed to think first)
-MR(sided)
-Jelly(needed to think)
-Yuri(against)
-dumytru(sided but only if everyone does it too, summed up the pros and cons)
-Kleene(sided)

Everyone's FI results this far:
I'll just basically gather what people have said in their fake investigates. to wait if the detective happens to die.
-Stop: Fuji, Jellitto
-MoonRaven: Kleene, Togop, Jellitto
-Fuji: m_s, Jellitto, SA
-Kleene: Stop. SA
-Togop: SA, MR
-Yuri: MR

Overall vibes I have on each person
1. SA ->civilian. Even though he suggested the fake investigation, this far I see that it has had no use for the spy(Great work everyone!). Active here, suspects strongly Fuji. Curious to know what I had.
2. Yuri ->I'm not sure yet. She isn't that active and something might be still off but I wouldn't go lynching her immediately. The no-vote bugs me a bit but I'm inclined to believe that it was an honest mistake.
3. Fuji ->I'm not sure yet. Active here. Mainsuspect of SA. I'm wouldn't go lynching her either yet. Voiced her suspicion towards Kleene.
4. Jellitto -> civilian/not spy(she was supposed to be the next in the line for my fake investigation despite my vote
5. m_s ->civilian. It simply doesn't make sense for PW -a known informant to vote the spy or the other(thought possibly unidentified informant) right on the first day. Inactive.
6. dumytru ->I'm not sure yet. occasionally inactive.
7. Robo ->civilian.
8. Stop ->I'm not sure yet. While they suspect me, I refrain forming an opinion on them. It could be like with SA's case. Possibly got with their opinion m_s and Togop to vote MR(me).
9. PW ->Informant.
10. Jecka ->civilian. PW's voting is against their evilness. inactive.
11. MR ->Well, that's me. I let you make your own assumptions and deductions. There's two things against me being a spy. 1: I voted for PW on day1. 2: I voted for Jellitto on day3 when she also got killed by the spy.
12. Kleene ->Not spy according to my fake investigation. I don't rule her out of being the informant. We have had similar thoughts this far. FI'ed both Stop and SA who both have been stuck with their respective suspects:P.
13. Raifuujin ->No opion on them at all. Seriously inactive. Working behing the scenes? Hmm...
14. Togop ->Not spy. [quote=viewtopic.php?f=30&t=12267&p=814404&hilit=togop#p814404]My fake investigation on them.[/quote] The self vote says pretty much.
15. RH ->civilian. Sided with me in voting twice by coincidence(including the first day). inactive.

Spoiler: Questionnaire

Q1: Who is your main suspect for the Spy at the moment and why?
A: Hmm... probably Raifuujin thought I can't be certain. I'm also a bit vary of those two suspecting only one person each.

Q2: Who is your main suspect for the Informant at the moment and why?
A: Kleene and Yuri. Though I cleared Kleene from being the spy I still have a feeling that she could be the remaining informant.

Q3: Do you spot any potential links between players?
A: Hmmm... Not at the moment. There haven't been anything yet. At least not for me.

This is not very good. Basically just my notes written here. But if someone finds them useful, I'm happy. I tried my best as a dutiful citizen. BTW, I still don't see any similarities between PW and my posts... Or then I'm too tired to see anything.

EDIT: Why the strike-through isn't working?!

[miyano_shiho]

Sorry for not being too active. Been busier than I thought these past few days and I still need to catch up on the thread. Though it's good to know I'm semi-proven to be civilian. Also, first time I've seen my username shortened to m_s

[Togop]

Quick post, but as of tomorrow afternoon I'll have all the time in the world.

SA is looking like civillian so far (either that or a very crafty informant), as do Yuri Iwamoto, Miyano Shiho, and KleeneOnigiri. I won't get into the reasons now, no time (and some of them may help the spy). My investigations have also supposedly cleared SA, MR, and yesterday also Fujiwara.

I won't bet on spies, the informant probably spoke more than average on day 1 and 2 (no time to complete list, but you can check).

See you tomorrow afternoon.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

@MoonRaven
My no vote was caused by a nap I took after work... I tend to do that, since waking up early and then being extremely active at my factory job tires me out, considering I'm an evening person.
Also, it is funny you suspect me of being Informant when you are my suspect for that.
I don't know who the spy is... I haven't had time to read all posts and deduce that yet... Besides, I'm still exhausted at the moment so my brain isn't working properly for me to try reading up and figuring my suspects...

[MoonRaven]

@MoonRaven
My no vote was caused by a nap I took after work... I tend to do that, since waking up early and then being extremely active at my factory job tires me out, considering I'm an evening person.
Also, it is funny you suspect me of being Informant when you are my suspect for that.
I don't know who the spy is... I haven't had time to read all posts and deduce that yet... Besides, I'm still exhausted at the moment so my brain isn't working properly for me to try reading up and figuring my suspects...

I understand(I have work too), my paranoia is just kicking in and refuses to let anyone go scotch-free... Well, some but not that many.
That's funny indeed.