Espionage - Round 5 (Spy and Informants Win)

[MoonRaven]

At the moment I'm looking for an ally to work with a discuss without throwing accusations around.(Thought my work and timezone might prevent that). I was hoping that you'd be one of those since you have more experience than I do about this game(and possibly mafia too).

Most importantly: It is not allowed to talk about this game outside of the thread (except with the game master). Any and all discussion must take place within this thread.

Yes, I'm aware of that. Allies can discuss and work together also in public which is the point of this game, right? I am looking for an ally with whom to share a civilized conversation that other's can also follow and join if they're interested. A public alliance is the word. We already have the spy-informant alliance under a cover and the detective-civilians alliacne that everyone are claiming to belong. But now we need smaller alliances. I've seen something like that in the previous rounds.

[Fujiwara]

Well, we had voting alliances, but discussions are really more free-for-alls. XD
There isn't much point in limiting your discussion partners and you also can't really talk freely, because some things are better left unsaid. What you described sounded more like private allying, which is of course impossible in this game.

[MoonRaven]

True... I haven't played mafia or even read the threads so I can't really compare these two.
At the moment what I have in my mind is to hypothetically discuss of each person participating and ponder what could their role be. Not accuse anyone yet, just look for hints and the both sides of situation. Like in Cluedo! First you suggest and then you suspect! (Cluedo=Clue I guess...)

[Kleene Onigiri]

Yay! Fake Investigates \o/

Not Spy: Stoppy

Otherwise, I'm not sure who could be spy or informant yet. :V nothing strikes me yet :V

[MoonRaven]

A bit over one hour to day change... I wanna stay awake but I'm too tired.(it's ~22:46 here). So, good night and good luck. I hope I'll still be alive...

[shinichi'sapprentice]

is it just me or there are no other nominations at all... oh well, goodluck

[bash7353]

Day 2 ends!

No one has been killed.

No one has been lynched.

Votes:

• Jellitto (3)
  • Togop
  • RainHeaven
  • MoonRaven
• MoonRaven (3)
  • Yuri Iwamoto
  • Stopwatch
  • Jecka
• dumytru (2)
  • Jellitto
  • Kleene Onigiri
• Togop (2)
  • miyano_shiho
  • Fujiwara
• shinichi'sapprentice (1)
  • dumytru
• Yuri Iwamoto (1)
  • Raifuujin
• Fujiwara (1)
  • shinichi'sapprentice

It is now Day 3!

Time until Day 4

[Jellitto]

And the Finns tied...

[Jecka]

Yay for no one dying \o/

[Togop]

Fujiwara, what did I do to deserve your vote?

Anyway, since we're starting fake investigates:
Day 1: Fujiwara, Dumytru, shinichi'sapprentice Simply three usually active players
Day 2: Fujiwara, Dumytru, moon-raven Oh, well, I had hoped on confirmation for one of the other two, moon-raven's being more active, too, this game

Dimytru's kinda acting more quiet than usual this game.

Anyway, no kill day 2? Since there was no lynch, it didn't simply coincide with the lynch. Since there was no self-vote, it wasn't due to inactivity. Instead, it was intentional no-kill. I would concieve it being due to unidentified informamt, but there was a kill yesterday!

[shinichi'sapprentice]

phew. we all lived \o/

hrm... no self-votes. good. i take it that everyone had time to send their votes, and... NO REASON FOR THE SPY TO NOT HAVE KILL!!! while it is of course good for us \o/ , we can deduce that the spy CHOSE NOT TO KILL TODAY. (reasons that i can think of:)
1. still haven't identified his/her other informant
2. he/she wanted to wait for more fake investigates and start from there
3. while he/she had the time to vote, he/she might have been really busy and didn't have the time to think who to kill; that'll narrow down our suspects to the busy people (Fujiwara, Stopwatch, Jecka, Togop) vs. the people who hasn't nominated/shared their thoughts/just quiet (miyano_shiho, Raifuujin, RainHeaven), and one other special case
4. [other eviler strategy]

#1by now, three orders have been sent already!

prep phase posters (in order of posting)
-shinichi'sapprentice
-Kleene Onigiri
-Fujiwara
-PhantomWriter
-Togop
-MoonRaven
-Jecka
-Jellitto
-dumytru
-Jd-
-Stopwatch
-RoboG55
-Yuri Iwamoto
-miyano_shiho

Day 1 posters (in order of posting)
-PhantomWriter
-Togop
-dumytru
-Jecka
-Yuri Iwamoto
-Kleene Onigiri
-MoonRaven
-Jellitto
-Stopwatch

#2FAKE INVESTIGATE EXPLAINED. Fake Investigate is a strategy that will be very helpful for the detective to take cover. I've been repeatedly saying you guys shouldn't think about it and think of another plan on how we are going to play this round. It seems that no new ideas have emerged. I tried the nomination thing but nobody seemed to have any suspects at all as well. And now, back to further explaining the strategy... I decided to propose 'fake investigate' at prep phase,.. prep phase!!! Now, listen up List Holders, do you really think the disadvantages of the strategy outweighs the advantages??? Think again! While it might be dangerous because "the spy will get to narrow down the possible detective of this round if a civilian labels the spy as not spy...", it's not like the game ends once the detective dies. We have two days,.. two days!!! Check back dumytru's, Togop's, and Kleene Onigiri's thoughts about the strategy. All I can add to that is not only when the detective dies that we get to know the real investigate, we also get to see the informant/s' fake investigate. You all know what to do when the detective dies , and I'll be disappointed if you guys don't get it...

what else,.. oh! my prep phase hype AND ANOTHER REASON WHY I SUSPECT FUJIWARA. Check prep phase again and see who supported my posts and who were against it. What is interesting at prep phase is that the spy and the informants 100% had not made any contact yet!!! Aside from the informants knowing who their spy is, all their posts at prep phase are PURELY THEIRS!!! Again, List Holders!!! It was a chance to look back on what those prep phase posters said, as soon as you received your lists. Our informant#1 is the active type, don't you think? As for informant#2,.. while it might be helpful to pin him/her down first, i suggest you List Holders to hold on to your lists and don't you dare give any clues on what its contents are until further notice! So yeah, back at prep phase, who were the people who're against the fake investigate??! Do you guys really think the detective doesn't want to share his results??! Who do you guys think will be at risk if the detective decides to share his investigates? What do you guys think the point of sharing the investigates anyway? -_- Let me quote this for you, List Holders...

The idea of fake investigate was that everyone posts results from investiagte. The detective posts real results, while everyone else makes something up. Since the detective is in everyone's list, civillians have strong leads to decide which investigate results to believe and which not to believe. The spy/informants - wouldn't.

...

and let me say it again... the strategy matters when the detective's gone. that's why i'm kinda disappointed with the lack of discussions... the people who i expect to be talking are... i guess they're really busy, eh? i really hope more people will share what they think because it will really give the detective more time to do more investigates. and let's continue with the fake investigates \o/ while having discussions of course \o/

and let me try answering some things if i haven't answered it yet...

...

While it gives a cover up for the detective civilians will not know what the real results are.

the point of the strategy is NOT to base your daily votes by comparing all the investigates posted in a given phase. it is for a later use and it will really be helpful. that's why i have been asking for people to think of another plan

---

and oh, oh, oh!!! this...

...

About the idea of not saying anything on Day 1:
Er, I really don't think this is a very good idea. The only advantage of this strategy is delaying the identification of the informants on Day 1, meaning the spy might kill one of his informants or might decide not to kill anyone. In return, our only means of communication will be completely cut off as well. Doesn't really seem worth it to me. Not to mention it's rather unlikely to actually work. If enough people are in favor of it by phase change I'll go along though.

while i completely agree with this (that's why i myself said, i kinda didn't wanna go through with it), who do you think would suffer the 24hour wait of not killing??? the above ↑ was posted about three hours before Day 1. the order(asking the informants to identify themselves) might have been sent already so all the more reason to disagree with the Ditch Day 1 strategy! even though three hours is still a lot of time to change the order, and since there wasn't an agreement to go through with the Ditch Day 1, we should be pretty sure that the informants have identified already. which then explains the Day 1 kill. but it might also have been a shot in the dark and will then be the explanation for the Day 2 no kill. well, of course, i'm not so sure about this.

---

LET'S START DISCUSSING PEOPLE \O/

---

No, I actually wanted to to the Fake Investigate strategy. But seems no one else is doing it (not even SA) so now I'm sad

i did! sheesh. Look again. this is Day 2's so go ahead and look for Day 1's >: D

Yuri Iwamoto
Jellitto
miyano_shiho = not spy

[Togop]

while i completely agree with this (that's why i myself said, i kinda didn't wanna go through with it), who do you think would suffer the 24hour wait of not killing??? the above ↑ was posted about three hours before Day 1. the order(asking the informants to identify themselves) might have been sent already so all the more reason to disagree with the Ditch Day 1 strategy!

You can actually change the order instead of challenging the strategy - a lot less conspicuous, and what I think Fujiwara would have done if she was a spy and the no-post idea was obstructing her.

As for your reasons for the no-kill, I don't see why would the spy wait for more fake investigates. I mean, they could kill and get more fake investigates anyway. But well, I can't think of anything that makes sense.
Actually, I dismissed the idea of unidentified informant because there was a kill day 1. But what if the spy was willing to shoot in the dark with two informants alive, but now when there's only one - not? This would normally point to inactive informants. But we don't have any inactives now (no self votes day 2, only mine day 1 but I was active). This probably means the informant followed the order, but the spy missed it (I did that last round). This would make me think the informant's one of the people who post longer posts, but I missed a two-liner ID last round.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

You can actually change the order instead of challenging the strategy - a lot less conspicuous, and what I think Fujiwara would have done if she was a spy and the no-post idea was obstructing her.

...

nobody even thought that Day 1 would have lesser activity. again, there was no consensus that we should go through with the 'Ditch Day 1' that's why the spy might have decided to continue with the informant identification order and didn't change it. and for the first 12hours of Day 1, one informant has been posting... the second informant might have done the same, or waited till more people posted, or altogether, decided on not posting at all to be safe and/or that's why the spy failed to identify second informant.

...

As for your reasons for the no-kill, I don't see why would the spy wait for more fake investigates. I mean, they could kill and get more fake investigates anyway. But well, I can't think of anything that makes sense.
Actually, I dismissed the idea of unidentified informant because there was a kill day 1. But what if the spy was willing to shoot in the dark with two informants alive, but now when there's only one - not? This would normally point to inactive informants. But we don't have any inactives now (no self votes day 2, only mine day 1 but I was active). This probably means the informant followed the order, but the spy missed it (I did that last round). ...

if Day 1 kill was really a shot in the dark, then all the more reason not to kill on Day 2, if the spy hasn't identified his/her final ally yet. and if you think the spy this round failed to see who his/her other informant again, all we had to do is reread all the posts and compare. but now that i said that, and if the spy really hasn't identified the other informant yet, then the spy would just send a different identification order. but seriously, after three orders... what the heck spy??! so, it's unidentification or strategy of some sort. and if we have the silent type informant this round, then this is gonna be... interesting

...This would make me think the informant's one of the people who post longer posts, but I missed a two-liner ID last round.

what's this supposed to mean... -_-

[MoonRaven]

Morning.I just woke up. I got three votes... Why?

Too tired to think anything. I guess I'll reread this thread once again.

[Togop]

...This would make me think the informant's one of the people who post longer posts, but I missed a two-liner ID last round.

what's this supposed to mean... -_-

That it makes sense to assume that if the identification order was to say something (it usually is), the longer the post that includes it, the easier it is to miss it. However, last round I missed Ansai identifying himself in a very short post, so and bash in a moderately long post, so I won't assume that the informant has been posting long posts.