ESPIONAGE: Round Four (Spy & Informants Win!!)

[Jd-]

I am calling on the people below to help give this round some direction:

Please vote for Fujiwara if you want to have ANY chance at winning this!

Jellitto
Trickster
Kaito Lady
RoboG55
PhantomWriter
seed12
miakakiri
Togop
Yuri Iwamoto

You have seen a lot of people flip-flop left and right. I have stayed consistent that Fujiwara is what I feel is one of the players on the bad side. IF WE CAN CONFIRM THIS, WE HAVE A SHOT. If we cannot, we will have no information, at all, going into the final phase. We will have nothing. Nothing, whatsoever. If you are content with how this phase just went, good! Because that is exactly what's going to happen again if we let a tie happen or don't try to do something together.

Contrary to what was said before by others and very likely ones on the other side as well: THERE IS AN ADVANTAGE TO UNCOVERING THE INFORMANT IN THIS SITUATION. If we know that Fujiwara is the Informant, we will know EXACTLY where to look to find any and all information related to the Spy and ALSO FELLOW CIVILIANS. But there is only one way we'll ever be sure and that is to VOTE FOR FUJIWARA because not one other viable option has presented itself. Whether I'm right or wrong, we have not been able to muster one actual other lead in the past 48 hours.

If the Informant is not arrested today, we will be playing a guessing game tomorrow and there will be no hope whatsoever. I've put a lot of time and myself on the line for this round to try to give you guys a chance even though almost all of you have been entirely inactive this entire round. If you believe me to be a civilian and you think I am capable, just give me a shot and vote with me. I'm not selling you certainty: I may be wrong, definitely. But, I do know one certain thing outside of whether Fujiwara is or is not the Informant OR Spy: If we don't do something together, ANYTHING!, we will have zero chance at winning this because NO ONE will get eliminated.

I have not even once tried to create an out for myself on the now THREE different occasions that I have put myself on the line to try to give the civilians a shot, no matter how small, at winning this. Others that have made accusations have left little trap doors open to claim later; I've been completely upfront with you and put myself up to be arrested on three different occasions now. Three!

Let me say this one more time: CONFIRMING FUJIWARA AS EITHER INFORMANT OR SPY OR CIVILIAN ACTUALLY DOES HAVE ADVANTAGES. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to trick you, hasn't thought it through, or is simply delusional that they can find a needle in a haystack.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

@Togop

Sheesh, I did say I had to go to work didn't I? I, at the time of my last post, didn't have time to elaborate as I was running late for work (but thankfully I arrived just on time)
I do think you and Fuji are being suspicious. If that means Fuji is the spy, though, I wouldn't know. It was just a figure of speech because you were pointing fingers in my direction.

And now it's time to nap, getting up at 5:45 AM doesn't go well with my habit of staying up late chatting.

RMed: I'm voting Fujiwara this time Jd-... last time I forgot to send it in on time, so I'll send it now just to make sure.

[Jd-]

RMed: I'm voting Fujiwara this time Jd-... last time I forgot to send it in on time, so I'll send it now just to make sure.

Thank you! Finally, someone comes out of the woodwork to do something.

Even if Yuri were evil, she is coming out and doing something. Are there really no other civilians apart from me and Yuri that want to try this instead of ending up with yet another tie or a random civilian being arrested? A tie will give us NO INFORMATION OF ANY KIND whereas even if Fujiwara were a civilian you would have reason to question things I've said or ignore me for the last phase or arrest me. Even that is information, and it's a lot more than you have right now. But, I suspect Fujiwara's arrest would bring a lot more than that--much, much, much more, but not without you guys helping out. googleearth and Fujiwara will probably vote together for me, so at best we're looking at a tie unless someone shows up to help.

And, Togop: Yuri would be even more unlikely to be the Spy now. You already shifted your focus to googleearth and voted for him, so if she were the Spy, she'd just stay quiet and not help either of us with anything. She wouldn't need to get on your case or mention anything to the contrary because you'd have already been going down the wrong path and she'd have known it. If I'm wrong about Fujiwara and you still want to vote Yuri tomorrow, I will not in any way interfere with voting her or me in any way. You have my word on that.

I am calling on the people below to help give this round some direction:

Please vote for Fujiwara if you want to have ANY chance at winning this!

Jellitto
Trickster
Kaito Lady
RoboG55
PhantomWriter
seed12
miakakiri
Togop
Yuri Iwamoto

We have done nothing as a team so far. Let's try to do one coordinated thing together to avoid giving this game to the Spy side on a silver platter! Just one thing is enough to turn this entire thing around. If you disagree, just speak up--we need people to talk, even if they are disagreeing with me. We need information of any kind right now. There are so many inactive players and any of them could be evil. If you come forward, we will know more about you and hopefully won't have to look at you next.

[Fujiwara]

Okay, so the Day is nearing it’s end and I really don’t feel like arguing with Jd, who is, in my opinion, not making a good case of it.

Instead, I feel like I should be addressing everyone else:

First off, to Togop:
You’re right that no one had agreed with Jd at the time of my last post yesterday, but a lot of people hadn’t said anything either way and I was all too aware of Jd’s ability to sway people, that was – imo – present in all of the previous rounds. So, yeah, if anyone else had called for my arrest like that I wouldn’t have expected to be voted out, but it being Jd, I wanted to take no chances. Especially because last round I really regretted not making a post like that before I was killed. Of course, I wasn’t expecting to be killed right away, so there’s that. As to why I was calling it my Last Will and Testament, I was simply joking. It was sort of my “Write a will – Espionage version” ^_^
Make of that what you will.

To everyone:
I’ve said it in my previous post and I’ll say it again today: Jd- is twisting words and facts to suit his theory and that makes him either a very misguided Civilian or one of the remaining two baddies. If Jd is a misguided Civilian I'll have a lot of trouble accepting this fact once the game is over, I think.

I’ll just point out a few of the problems and leave everyone else to make up their own mind (because contrary to Jd, I believe other players are actually are capable of that):
- Jd says I confuse everyone by continuing the argument, yet I’ve been the one offering the olive branch
- Jd says I didn’t say that we should be united for the endgame, but I did:

Right now I’m afraid to say anything for or against anyone, for fear that Jd- will do anything but agree with me, no matter what I say and the worst case scenario is actually that some people will agree with me, others with Jd- – an ideal scenario for the spy to take control.

- I never said Stopwatch defending me meant she had investigated me, but it does mean that someone who’s definitely not on the spy side defended me on my own merits, since Jd seems to imply everyone who defends me is evil.
- Also, again, I didn’t think I should be exonerated based on voting for Ansai, but since Jd said so, I thought he’d maybe given up on pursuing me and tried to work together. Would I have done this as the Informant? Sure. But I would and did do the same as a Civilian, because I think we should all be working together (s.a.)
- And concerning the spy knowing Ansai’s identity yesterday. I believe he may have known it or not. Both cases are valid. After all, the spy had the opportunity to send a new order at the end of day 1 (after 1 informant hadn’t identified himself) and the order might have been something like “Say you’re really busy and will have more time during the weekend,” for all we know (just an example!), cf. last round’s order.
- Also I don’t see how me calling for Jd’s arrest is more suspicious than him calling for mine, but maybe that’s just me.
- Jd’s deal with googleearth is doomed to let the Civilians lose if he’s the informant, just saying.
- Jd says that I wanted to have him arrested while I have an ‘out,’ but in fact my first post ‘callling’ for his arrest was nothing but me saying ‘Please vote Jd if you think him suspicious,’ while also giving Jd and everyone else a chance to convince me otherwise, which I don’t think makes me evil. My second, maybe more insistent call for his arrest, was actually my asking you to vote Jd AFTER you’ve voted me out and found that I’m Civilian, not before, so that wasn’t a very good plan for a spy/informant. Jd, on the other hand, preferred to get rid of me first. Afterwards he could still either see whether he could stay around by acting all Civilian-y. And if he’s the informant, he might have considered the risk of getting voted out worth it anyway.
Maybe though, he wanted to attain exactly this situation where no one is sure what’s what.

I think Jd- is either the spy or the informant now, I cannot explain his irrationality, his twisting of the facts, his insistence that I’m evil any other way.

Top suspects for spy if Jd is the informant: Yuri (mostly for the reasons Togop mentioned) or one of the quiet players, in which case we’re rather doomed.

I’ll vote for Jd- today. I almost wish I’d been arrested yesterday, at least then you’d know you could trust the things I said. :/

[Jd-]

So, after reading Fujiwara's post, here is basically what new information we have right now: Nothing. That is how this can all be summed up right now. My inclination is that one of the quieter players is the Spy and that Fujiwara is the Informant. Yes, yes, I could be wrong; I won't be ashamed of that and none of you should wallow in any shame for being wrong either. At the very least, we're wrong together, and we've all put forth sufficient effort to get to this point. That's something to respect regardless.

Now, more importantly, let me mention where we are after nearly 24 hours of deliberations: Exactly where we started, which is nowhere. We're not even remotely close to making a decision right now.

A recap to this point: Fujiwara accused me at almost the same time I accused Fujiwara. Fujiwara acquiesced and said I was very likely a civilian and changed her vote. Later, googleearth began to suspect me (someone that has defended him and continues to do so by even still not voting for him despite a vote already being on the table) because I--sensing no progress and the very real possibility of a tie--said we need to try to get some information, somehow. Thus, I suggested we try to confirm who Fujiwara is and use the information we gain from that for the final day. In the meantime, Togop felt googleearth was the Spy (he also mentioned suspicions of Yuri, who I believe to be a civilian). Fujiwara changes her mind again and now thinks I'm either the Spy or the Informant.

Anyone see a trend here? We're all going in circles based on the activity of the only active players. The Spy has little reason to get involved in all this and it's causing us to tear the civilian effort down with no chance at recovery in time. There are roughly seven inactive players that could also be the Spy, but they're virtually definitely not the Informant. We have, at best, a very random guess as to which one they are. If we are able to find the Informant this phase, we can get the chance at some sort of revelation tomorrow, but we're really not likely to get this on chance.

Even if we could all agree on a target, so long as we don't know who the Informant is, we have no way to know if they have or have not meddled in that decision. This is all aside from the fact we cannot agree on anything. The Informant is very likely amongst us, but if they are not, we are all going to be pretty embarrassed by the fact we've just spent two days arguing amongst each other, as civilians, with nothing to go on other than the fact we're all still posting. If you sit around and ask people the same questions with a certain mindset ("This person may be trying to trick me!") long enough, you'll find the evidence you need to justify your suspicions no matter how baseless they are because you're not looking for the true answer--you're looking for the right answer to justify your suspicions. Sometimes, this will be your fault (this includes me), sometimes it will be their fault inadvertently for walking into it without realizing what's happened. The fact is that we've all been talking amongst each other so much that we are basing all of our suspicions on each other despite the fact there are seven inactive players just sitting around.

In other words, we're getting deeper and deeper in trouble by the minute and victory is further and further away.

All I can say with any possible degree of anything resembling the slightest sense of certainty is this:

Vote for Fujiwara if you want to have a chance. If we tie, we lose.

I could be wrong, but here is the thing I can say for sure: Everyone who has accused me at any point, for any reason, has done so completely erroneously. I'm not the Spy, I'm not the Informant. I've not covered for anyone in any form. Either one of us is right or we're all misguided--I am a civilian and any even slight cursory review of the facts will establish that clearly. You'll see what I mean very soon.

On Fujiwara's charge regarding others being unable to make up their own mind: It's not about people not being able to make up their own mind but not being here to make those considerations in the first place. Everyone on the roster is purely capable of making a sound and rational decision but, for whatever reason, they are not here to do it. They definitely won't have time in the next 90 minutes to read through all of the posts from the day they've missed, so any votes they cast will be purely random or informed by whatever the latest few posts are and we all know that.

[Jd-]

There's one person in particular I want to hear from before this round ends:

googleearth

I've defended you more than anyone else has defended you or maybe even anyone else in the entire game thus far. I continued to defend you even after you accused me and questioned me; I answered every question you raised without any second thoughts and without, as far as I'm concerned, the slightest hint of any manipulation. I was very upfront and honest with you throughout. I even gave you a deal that would accomplish both of our goals just a few posts ago.

What I'm asking you now is to strongly reconsider if you really think I'm the Spy. There's not much time left, and you may be the one who decides if this is a tie or if something actually happens. If the vote ties, we are screwed and we all know that we're screwed. BUT: If Fujiwara is arrested, we will have SOME SORT OF INFORMATION TO GO ON. Tell me that isn't true and I won't mention it to you again in any form. Tell me that clearing Fujiwara as the Spy, as the Informant, OR as a civilian isn't all valuable at this point in the game. Just tell me you believe that and we'll call everything bygones between us.

You and I both know that an arrest needs to happen today. I've stuck with my guns--I didn't flip-flop at all to this point, not even when I very easily could have switched votes and ganged up on you with Togop to get you out of the way. You defended me up to that point because you know I'm a civilian.

I'm asking you to really, really, really consider if you think I'm on the bad side. Would I waste all this time when our side has already virtually sealed the deal? Why would I waste ANY time going after Fujiwara if I were on the other side? Fujiwara is no danger to us in that scenario just like every other civilian. Fujiwara offered me a truce that I rejected--if I were on that side, we would have inadvertently recruited a supporter for nothing.

You tell me which side you really, truly think is more likely. But, do me a favor and remember it well, because after the game is over, you will be the one who really has to reflect on that decision. I defended you to this point and I'm defending you now. Are we on the same side or not? I trusted you even when you didn't trust me. Now's the time to decide if you really want this to be a tie or if you want something to happen.

[Jd-]

Togop

We've been on the same wavelength throughout this game for the most part. I know we've disagreed on Yuri. If we vote for Fujiwara together and Fujiwara's not on the bad side, I won't stop you in voting for Yuri OR me tomorrow at your discretion. I'll leave the fate of the town in your hands. But, your vote won't mean anything right now because googleearth is voting for me with Fujiwara while at least Yuri and I are voting for Fujiwara. We are headed for a tie and this whole phase will mean nothing if we don't get the arrest through.

Review the evidence, review the posts. Do you really believe me to be on the bad side? Find one reason why I'd really spend all this time to arrest Fujiwara or do anything to avoid a tie while being on that side. It really doesn't make sense.

[Jd-]

In the event I do end up arrested, I'm leaving a will of my own behind:

I understand your reasoning, but that mistake speaks for itself (as it would have if I were wrong about Fujiwara, which does seem increasingly unlikely). Any person you suspected because of me or by association to me (Yuri) should be exonerated immediately. Aim for a player like Fujiwara or seed12. Unfortunately, though, there's really not very much hope. I'll still root for you all even though you arrested me haphazardly. We did our best, even though that best has gotten us into a lot of trouble amongst us and probably made it impossible for whatever active civilians are left this phase to actually cooperate for a victory.

[Togop]

Yes, I did just that, and as of now I see:
1) Two people who declared they'll vote you
2) Two people who declared they'd vote Fuji

Now, it looks like I have to change my vote one way or another, doesn't it, as this looks very tie-y.

I mentioned earlier that I'd be swayed if I saw the full picture, assuming you had a suspect but could only convince us if we knew that Fuji's an informant. There was also the possibility you were preparing a leash trying to get the spy go along with you, but yso far you've further exonerated Yuri fir going along with you.

As things stand right now, I'll be switching my vote over to you. If you want Fujiwara, I want an actual logical explanation, not sugar-coating.
After you prove Fujiwara to be informant, then what?
If Fujiwara's innocent, then what? I'm getting a little confused with the challenges you offer whether you want to find out Fuji's role, or are sure about it.

[Jd-]

You're going to regret that in about . . . how much time is left before this phase changes?

I did my part. I told you why Fujiwara was suspicious. I didn't switch my vote or try to blend in with the civilian side in either of the two very prominent times that it presented itself. The one who did that was Fujiwara. I could have voted with you for googleearth and gotten Yuri on board and possibly Fujiwara as well. But, I didn't. You're going to see why very soon if I'm arrested. Blah-blah, I already offered myself on the line three more times than any of the rest of you, etc. etc.

Sometimes, a civilian is very obviously a civilian, and if I'm arrested, just go read the will. At least then someone here may finally listen once they see I'm confirmed.

Being arrested here really isn't bad, though, because this game is a complete and utter lost cause at this point. It'll save me a lot of time arguing about all this tomorrow, so good luck--you will definitely, definitely need it.

[Togop]

I did read your will, amd it also doesn't answer whose informant is Fujiwara. Who do you want us to vote for once you've been confirmed, if you are indeed confirmed? seed12 (that's the only name there other than Fuji's).

[Jd-]

Unfortunately, if Fujiwara doesn't get arrested, there won't be enough information to go on either way. It's just the state of affairs we're in with the game ending by force on Day 4.

I would say it's one of the quieter players and not googleearth, despite his recent misnaming of me as the Spy. However, do not discount Fujiwara as the Spy--it's still very possible.

Sad part is, I don't think the game can be won if I'm arrested only because you're not in any way eliminating either A) the one person I believe is on the bad side or 2) one of the inactive players we can't seem to get into at all.

I want you to win, so don't let me down if there's any possible way to salvage this after this arrest.

[Jd-]

There's roughly 15 minutes left in this phase to make up your mind. If you do vote me, I won't hold it against you, honestly. I know the situation we're in here. I won't blame Fujiwara/googleearth/etc either because, as I said, we're in a lost circle here. We can't get to the inactive players so we're tearing each other apart. "Sometimes, a civilian really is just a civilian."

Do your best either way.

[RoboG55]

Yep. This is a really crazy day here. T_T

[Jd-]

The phase should be ending soon now. Sayonara! Civilian 4 lyfe.