ESPIONAGE: Round Four (Spy & Informants Win!!)

[Stopwatch]

The active players are the ones most likely to be killed (only lurkers who are hard to read remaining makes things difficult). IMO, unless the Detective has any strong suspicions it would be best to investigate those in the grey areas in terms of being read.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

I'm very willing to answer questions Jd-

[bash7353]

The Last Will and Testament of Fujiwara

1. @googleearth:
You misunderstood me. I didn’t exonerate Jd- because he offered to let himself be arrested. Rather, because he was so relentlessly attacking me, convinced of my guilt, leaving no room for doubt, I believe that he argued himself into a corner that it would be hard to get out of once it’s proven that I’m Civilian. His offer has nothing to do with it. I think there are way less risky ways of getting rid of me if he’s on the spy side.
Also, as I said in my original post where I mentioned that I’m suspicious of Jd, unlike Jd, I was never 100% sure of his guilt, I just thought his actions were suspicious and wanted to a) point that out in case I get killed and 2) see whether other people thought the same.
But I don’t think it’s a good idea to remove both of us from the game one after another when chances are we’re both innocent. And since I’m travelling all day today and didn’t know when I would have internet again, I decided to quickly post a retraction of my statement. The spy must be really happy with the current situation anyway.

[...]

Like I said, I didn't agree with your reasoning as to why we should vote him in the first place. But I maintain that Jd-'s behaviour in terms of calling for you to be lynched doesn't point towards him being evil or innocent, in my opinion. It could still be both, I don't think one's more likely as a result of that.

While we're on that topic, though. Up until now I've said he's behaving pretty much how I'd expect him to. But that feeling changed a bit in the last couple hours. Am I the only one who thinks that at first Jd- was very definitive about Fujiwara being evil, but as we got closer and closer to the phase change he was hoping she'd be arrested his posts indicated he got less and less sure about it?

I'm not sure what that means, though. That is, if I'm not imagining this. But I think it might mean that Jd- got more and more unsure about Fuji and became somewhat afraid she'll turn out to be innocent when she's arrested, so even before that happened he tried to walk back his statement that he should be arrested next if he was wrong about her, so as to save his own life if you will. He tried to give himself the opportunity to later say "I specifically said I wasn't sure about Fujiwara, it was just a suspicion."

If that's the case, that'd make him a Civilian, wouldn't it? It's likely that by now the Informants identified themselves in some way to each other and the Spy, so if Jd- was on the evil side his perception of Fuji wouldn't change over time, would it? He'd have probably known for sure for some time.

[Jd-]

Here's pretty much where we are right now:

I feel that Fujiwara is an Informant. I've done everything I can to bring others over to this side, and if Fujiwara really is the Informant, she has done a great job shifting suspicion from me onto an inactive party (Ansai) to ensure the votes went a different direction. I promised in several, several, several posts, many times over, that I should be at the front of the firing line if Fujiwara is arrested as a civilian--it's on me if it happens. If people think I am evil should Fujiwara be a civilian, put me at the front of the line and arrest me without a second thought. I have not and will not backpedal, backtrack, walk back, or in any way reverse that with any statement tomorrow. From the start, I said it was my suspicion based on reasonable factors that appealed to me, but that I was in no way selling certainty (in fact, that was a pretty big point in the original post--the fact I was not selling anything certain but offering my best guess as a civilian). My intention was never, not then and definitely not now, to come up tomorrow and say, "Well! That was just my suspicion, you know how it goes~". My intention, as stated in follow-up posts, to help the civilian side the best I could and be arrested as a civilian so my information would be confirmed as having come from a civilian.

But, as I'm sure is the case with Fujiwara with regard to me: I don't want Fujiwara to be on the other side. That just makes it way harder for the civilians to actually win. I have a feeling that Fujiwara is the Informant, still, but I don't want her to be. I'd of course rather her be a civilian and we ally and win the game together, but this is how the situation has played out.

So, Fujiwara as Informant is the basket where Jd- is putting all his eggs--not because I want Fujiwara to be an Informant (really hope not), but because that is how it seems to me.

[bash7353]

I didn't mean to imply you did that consciously, Jd-. I think you unconsciously changed the position a bit over the course of the phase, not by a lot, just a little bit. I don't think that's an evil plan or anything, it's actaully the way you'd expect things to be given that everything's uncertain here.

And like I said, I'm not sure if I'm not just imagining this.

[Stopwatch]

"Reasonable factors" that are so reasonable that you can't fully explain them :/.

[Jd-]

"Reasonable factors" that are so reasonable that you can't fully explain them :/.

It would be disadvantageous to the civilian side, if I am correct, for me to lay out every breadcrumb for the Spy side to follow and learn which traps to avoid. We don't want them to know how to manipulate their way through the game and fully know how to avoid all possible landmines as they try to blend in. I could be wrong, but I've done my best with the tools at hand and given what I believe is a fair offer in exchange.

[dumytru]

Sorry I'm an hour late. Some unexpected circumstances caused this. Even though I'm late, I'll only count votes that were sent before 1:00 pm, as that's when the phase should have ended.

Results:
Stopwatch, the Detective was killed.
Ansai, an Informant, was arrested.

Ansai: googleearth, Fujiwara, Togop, Ansai
Fujiwara: Jd-
Yuri: Jellito
Togop: seed12
googleearth: RoboG55
stop: stop
trickster: trickster
miaka: miaka
yuri: yuri
kl: kl
phantom: phantom

[Fujiwara]

Wow.
And, oh my god, we lost the detective already. We are so screwed.

[Jd-]

That... is probably the most dramatic turn of events in recent human history.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

I KNEW IT.

...
*walks away*

[Jd-]

So, basically: Two phases left. The game will end on Day 4 one way or the other. Anyone who voted for Ansai is highly unlikely to be the Spy or Informant... but, if they were clever, a sacrifice isn't impossible. We don't really have time for conspiracies now, though. Someone go back and look at all of Ansai's posts so far, see if he posted any sort of cue--if not, that may have explained the lack of a kill (Spy afraid of killing an Informant that didn't respond). Look at all posters who mentioned Ansai as a possible suspect so far so we can get a list going. Also, Stoppy may have mentioned somewhere her non-Spy result... Maybe, in some form.

I'll be back later to discuss exactly what's happened here and what we can possibly do to win. It's a rough situation, but let's not give up yet.

[Trickster]

Ok. I think it's time I made my appearance. Would you agree?

Anyways.. here's my two cents. I think it's quite possible that both Fujiwara and jd- are either the spy or informants, as they have control of town right now. I also think it's quite possible they're both civies. Whatever they are, I think I would be relatively surprised if they were not on the same team.

[Togop]

So, I go to sleep and you start having a good discussion. Not fair. Anyway, finally, this thread is getting lively.
It seems only detective stopwatch liked my idea everyone to post fake investigate results, but now that she's dead it doesn't matter.
We have two days to find the spy.

Ansai made one single post this game, so that's there he must have identified himself as informant if he did:

When the weekend comes around, I'll finally have more time to be active... But as for right now, I can't really do much here...
So much work to do...

The thrice-triple points stand out at a glance (I think that signw as already used in Round 2). That may suggest a spy who is newer, but we don't really know that was indeed the sign.
Another thing that sounds unnatural is "But as for right now".

Anyway, that means the spy really didn't know one of the informants during day 1, which could explain the no-kill.

I'll compile and post more thought later.

[miakakiri]

Argh. ~_~* I am apparently no good at this game. Yes, once again, I failed to vote. Yesterday evening was busy-stuffs and I got distracted before bed. Woke up around 11 this morning and had too many things to check into as I started my day (e-mail and the like) so I forgot to look, and then I had a meeting at 1pm. I apologize for my lack of activity in playing the game and promise to try again with a bit more focus on the game at hand next time. Third time's the charm and all.
Yikes, we've already lost the detective! This looks like blind luck on the part of the spy, though obviously skill can't be entirely ruled out. Still, to have the spy's first kill be our detective... this is gonna be a really tough game for the town. ~_~*
If I read the rules right, lists aren't much use anymore now that the detective is gone. So... where do we go from here? (Besides 'Pay more flipping attention to the game you're supposed to be playing, Miaka!' I got that. ~_~*)