ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

[KainTheVampire]

.... Woo
Morons, I tell you! Morons!

[Kleene Onigiri]

Great job guys :v

[Iwamoto Yuri]

*hides her amusement*

[Jellitto]

.... Woo
Morons, I tell you! Morons!

XD

[dumytru]

Whoa. Certainly didn't expected them to be the Detective.

You think JD would stop doing good deductions as the spy?

No, but good deductions are good deductions.


But the question remains: Why breva's team?

[Kaito Lady]

.... Woo
Morons, I tell you! Morons!

XD

^

also, D:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jecka]

Yeah! Great job guys, you got the detective! *claps* Wh- oh wait. :V

[Fujiwara]

[Togop]

OK. everyone, now that the detective is out, we need all possible deductions laid down on the table, as there's no further need to protect the detective. Thus, list all your theories so far.
1) Some people said they though they knew who the detective was. Who did you suspect of being the detective, and why?
I suspected shinichi'sapprentice and GE. I suspected he was the detective because of his dissatisfaction with day 1's tie and his dissatisfaction of the fact that is was impossible to infer about people's lists based on their posts. When SA said he wanted to vote for us on day one, but decided against after discussing it with his GE, but then never nominated me and CC again in day 2, I suspected that was because they had used Investigate.
2) Other than Jd-'s list, clearly more aiming to get together an alliance than to actually list people who we have serious reasons to believe are civillians, we don't know anyone's opinions on who's not the spy. So, everyone, say who do you really believe is not the spy.
So far, unfortunately, I don't have serious reasons to believe any team is civillian. The most trustworthy so far are dumytru and Cider, but even them I can't exonerate. What day did ind ay 0 was to ensure the tie does occur; that's not something hindering the spy much, so the spy could as well have done it to divert suspicion.
3) Of course, everyone, bring fourth your suspect lists. While we should definitely focus on finding the spy, figuring out who the informant is could be a very strong lead. I'll post my thought ont hat later after I sort them out.
4) If you have any compelling evidence that you're a civillian, do come fourth.
5) Finally, I want everyone, or at least every team, to reply to the above points. That's to make sure the spy replies, too.

6) On a different note, there was something I set up during prep phase. "ac5e0e3", which I jokingly suggested as a team name, is the ending of a certain md5 hash. Can you guess what text is that md5 hash of?

I also have one more point, but it's going to wait until a little bit.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THIS IS ALL MY FAULT!!!!!!!
surely, the spy is targeting teams that can give good deductions. two phases left.
ADVICE to all civilians that do not have Team 9: KainTheVampire and Jellitto on their lists. ONE THING IS FOR SURE, THE SPY IS IN YOUR LISTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

if there is one person i owe an apology, it's my partner. i'm sorry!

message to this round's detectives, if you know that staying quiet will make someone suspicious, then you shouldn't have stayed quiet at all. i'm really not sure of Jellitto's gamestyle. not sure if she's the active type or the quiet type. but based on her Espionage gameplay history, she's one that posts if she has something to tell. thus,

(quoted from round 2)
i am also against voting for non-active players. proof of this is round 1. it is just wrong and suspicious to do something that is not your style. however, in the long run, you will have to post anyway. what's the point of joining if you're just gonna lurk anyway. it's not helpful for other civilians because instead of being watchful for suspicious players, we still have to keep in mind players that are opting to be silent. also, what are you going to do if in the future you're assigned as the detective? you can't just keep quiet forever. if you become detective, and is known for being "not-so-active", how are you gonna share your deductions to us? the spy will just go straight for the kill.

the green one . . this should be a lesson to all to stay active in future plays. not only you help the detective take cover, it also gives you a history of giving good deductions and thus, earn you gain trust in the future.

--

now, in reply to Togop's post.

OK. everyone, now that the detective is out, we need all possible deductions laid down on the table, as there's no further need to protect the detective. Thus, list all your theories so far.

TRUE indeed! now, i'm kinda proud that i had people believe that we're the detectives. it was risky. but at least we'll make ourselves the target for the spy instead of the real detectives. but, that's useless now. anyone else who thought we're the detectives?

1) Some people said they though they knew who the detective was. Who did you suspect of being the detective, and why?

my question too.

I suspected shinichi'sapprentice and GE. I suspected he was the detective because of his dissatisfaction with day 1's tie and his dissatisfaction of the fact that is was impossible to infer about people's lists based on their posts. When SA said he wanted to vote for us on day one, but decided against after discussing it with his GE, but then never nominated me and CC again in day 2, I suspected that was because they had used Investigate.

you, saying this, makes me kinda want to trust you. because if you're the spy, and you believed we're the detectives, then we should have been dead by now.

2) Other than Jd-'s list, clearly more aiming to get together an alliance than to actually list people who we have serious reasons to believe are civillians, we don't know anyone's opinions on who's not the spy. So, everyone, say who do you really believe is not the spy.

i have no one. right now, everybody is a suspect.

6) On a different note, there was something I set up during prep phase. "ac5e0e3", which I jokingly suggested as a team name, is the ending of a certain md5 hash. Can you guess what text is that md5 hash of?

i do not understand this part.

[Jd-]

DAMN! That's the very first time in all of the days that have passed so far in all these rounds that we unluckily got the Detective... My working theory was that the Detectives would put up a hell of a fight if they were ever nominated, so I do apologize. Let me get caught up in the topic, hang on! This isn't over yet!

[Jd-]

OK, I've spent some time reviewing the activity so far and have reached a few conclusions. Foremost, we ended up accidentally getting the Detectives based on lists this time, which is an occupational hazard. Due to them not posting much, it was really difficult to figure out exactly which they were. While I'm glad the lists have played a real part in this round, I wish it would've turned out differently. There's still hope: We still have TWO chances left and we're still the majority. Don't give up yet!

---

Lingering Points

There are a few things left that need to be addressed off the top, by everyone.

1) What happened on Day One? Why was there no kill? Inactivity and inexperience seem to be the only logical answers as there was no tactical advantage to not killing that day.

2) Did the Detectives find the Spies? I believe the answer to be a pretty clear "no". More on this below.

3) We need to be fairly sure with our votes from now on. It seems obvious, but it needs to be said. We should maybe establish a vote hierarchy of sorts to see where we all stand. There's obviously no point in ensuring another tie now, so we should spend today getting as much information as possible into the open.

---

Why KL & I Are Obviously Civilians

While our nomination led to the Detectives being arrested, that is actually extremely strong evidence in favor of us being civilians. We were clearly working from our list both on Day 2 and Day 3 when we recommended Kain & Jellitto as voting targets. They could have just as easily been the Spies. If you look back at every post in regard to this, you'll see that this was the case and our motivation for proceeding. I think it's pretty obvious that we're civilians at this point and don't see a need to go into this further.

---

Spy Suspects

RoboG55 & Meme: Our leading suspects at this point. Not only one of the quietest teams in the game that has been included on two different lists now, there are factors suggesting how Day 1 could have happened here. RoboG55 is still learning mafia-type games at this point and was reluctant to act without Meme. If Meme had been busy and not had time to send in a kill on Day 1, it seems quite likely to me that RoboG55 would have been hesitant to make such a decision and instead leave it to Meme, who didn't get it in on time. While Meme changed her vote at the last minute, Kain herself mentioned in the topic she had been talking (about non-game stuff) with Meme on Skype just prior to Meme changing her vote. My guess is Meme changed her vote to be friendly and supportive, because it would've been a little awkward if she just let her get arrested without trying to help when they were so closely in correspondence outside the game.

shinichi'sapprentice & googleearth: I really want to believe that they're civilians. shinichi'sapprentice seems genuinely concerned with what I'd expect of fellow civilians' interests. googleearth hasn't given too many cues, but has seemed aligned with the mentality you'd expect. There's probably no reason to suspect them, and if they are the Spies, they've played a pretty masterful round. I'll have to tip my hat if they are as I've not suspected them thus far.

Jd- & Kaito Lady: Almost definitely civilians. We voted from our list and got a special role arrested and only civilians have lists. We helped arrange the tie on Day 1 when that'd otherwise be very disadvantageous to the Spies. We've campaigned for several teams of civilians, more so than anyone else, and prevented them from getting falsely arrested. I think it's fairly evident that we're civilians at this point.

Conan-chandesune & Togop: I feel like they are very likely civilians. I also feel like I can usually get a good read on Conan-chandesune (and vice versa?) and he seems to be a civilian to me. Plus, if last round is any indication, I would've been dead already if he had been a Spy. Togop has been one of the foremost organizers of our civilian reasoning efforts, so I haven't really had reason to suspect either of them. Everything checks out with this team, including their posts and activity history. I wouldn't consider them very strong suspects for Spies.

Cider & dumytru: Almost completely and definitely civilians. dumytru interceded at the last second in Day 1 to ensure a tie when he didn't have to do anything of the sort. I'm sure that without him, there would have been an arrest back then. Everything he's done since has been in line with that of a civilian, too. Cider has been inactive due to outside stuff but also seems like a civilian to me.

Kamite & Breva: Probably civilians. Breva interceded and tried to help save Kain & Jellitto at the last minute despite it being obvious who would be arrested without her stepping in to help. If they were the Spies, it would have made no sense to get involved at all. Kamite was also one of the people who helped ensure a tie at the last minute during Day 1. As with dumytru, it makes no sense for a Spy to intercede in trying to save civilians, especially twice.

Jecka & miyano_shiho: One of the quieter teams (has Miyano posted anything at all?). They've both been apparently busy throughout the game, which may explain the lack of a kill on Day 1. If they do turn out to be the Spies, it will have been a very well-played game for them. I'm not aware of any evidence to suggest them as civilians at this point in the game. My recommendation would be to watch them closely if the game goes on another phase. I actually had a weird feeling about a post Jecka made during Prep Phase that I thought may be indicative of responding to a cue the Spies had asked for.

Kleene Onigiri & Miaka: I'm a little inclined to suspect Kleene on account of her being a little more forceful than usual throughout this round. She's not had to face any nominations or very serious suspicions yet, but has still spent a lot of the game ensuring that the civilian population remains in disarray and without much direction. As above, I'm not really aware of anything that would lead me to believe they're civilians to this point.

In short, we believe the Spies to be one of the following: RoboG55 & Meme, Kleene Onigiri & Miaka, or Jecka & miyano_shiho

---

Responses

Also I find JD suspicious. People are following his votes again. And the other team that was able to usually change peoples mind was Fuji who are arrested now :x

Keep in mind that before I ever nominated anyone at all, I asked for anyone and everyone's opinions on what to do next. It should be fairly obvious that I'm a civilian at this point given that KL & I clearly just voted from our list. It's unfortunate that it was the Detective instead of the Spy this time, but that's just going to happen sometimes.

Thats was also happening in the previous rounds. We should just nominee players instead of letting Jd- do it.
It just happened that I agreed with him this time.

Other than the fact that he's mobilizes people to vote together, I can't find anything suspicious about Jd-. In fact, his deductions are pretty good.
Also, about nominating Jelitto's team. I think that's mostly because they were inactive. Inactive civilians help the spy. At least, that's why I agreed to vote.

And, indeed, I very obviously asked for nominations. I only went ahead with Kain & Jellitto because no one else offered any nominations of any kind for the entire day.

---

Investigate Results

Due to Kain and Jellitto not posting much, we don't really have any idea who they were suspecting or who they tried Investigate on. However, we can be fairly sure that they never found the Spies. If they did, there is no way they wouldn't have definitively pointed out that they were "fairly sure" or something to that effect of someone's guilt and very easily could have done it from the perspective of a civilian. "I noticed something from earlier and compared it to their activity and information from our list; if it doesn't work, you can arrest us next." There's no reason for them to not use this strategy in such a dire situation should they have known who the Spies were. The reason? If the Spies had been arrested, their kill wouldn't have mattered and the game would have ended. If you look back, the only people they even mentioned were Kamite & breva, but Jellitto didn't leave much mystery about him voting them because they were already mentioned as a repeat vote by Kleene earlier in the day. He said he was willing to change his vote if someone else mentioned another team, so if he really believed they were Spies, he'd definitely not have let anyone change their vote from that.

We won't know who they were going to Investigate for this phase, but I guess that doesn't matter now.

---

The Good News

We don't have to worry about dying now. What I expect will happen at the end of today is that one of the more vocal civilian teams will die (likely us) to make the last day harder should we not end it now. But, the good news: They only have one kill left. So, chances are, if you are still in the game and reading this, you'll make it to the end of the game. That's gotta give you reason to stay in the thick of it and do your best! Don't give up yet!

[KainTheVampire]

My partner is a girl, just saying

[shinichi'sapprentice]

*still rereading stuff and currently on page 14, but just have to post this just in case Jd- goes offline/disappears*

who did you thought was the detective team?

--Edit: you gotta change all those he to she now, Jd- >.<

[dumytru]

1) Some people said they though they knew who the detective was. Who did you suspect of being the detective, and why?

I thought Jd- and KL was the detective. Why? Because I'm a dummy.
In Day 3 he gave us a list of three players which be believed were civilians. (Me + Day 1 Investigte + Day 2 Investigate = three)
I'm in that list because it was obvious to him I'm a civilian.

This is what made me think he's the Detective. 5 teams besides Jd-'s were involved in the tie from Day 1, yet he only was sure of 3 of them. Sure he said something about Stopwatch's being probably civilians, but yeah.

That's mostly it, I guess. Though there might have been certain reactions and things he said.

---

My suspects:

Jd- & KL - I'm almost sure they're civilians, but not 100%.

shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth - Almost certain civilians.

Conan-chandesune and Togop are probably civilians.

KleeneOnigiri and Miaka - Not so sure yet. Could be informants.

RoboG55 and Meme - Based on my list, I think there's 50% chance he's the Spy. (that's just my approximation, no math involved)

Kamite & breva - might be Infromants, based on Jelitto's post.

I'm not so sure about the remaining teams. Not that I'm sure about the above ones, but yeah.