ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

[KainTheVampire]

Right now, based on our list and the activity and information posted by others in posts from Day 1+, we are going to nominate Kain/Jellitto.

I've always been bad at being active and I really don't know what to write since all you can do is pretty much vote randomly and write here about who to vote for randomly D:

[Fujiwara]

Actually... Now that I think about it: It is possible (as someone else pointed out earlier I think) that the Spy team didn't kill because their Informants didn't identify themselves in time. While I'd question the full logic of leaving a kill on the table for that, it does make a little bit of sense if only to avoid the fiasco that happened last round in a round with a lot fewer targets and thus higher likelihood of killing an allied party.

Yes, that is definitely a possibility. There’s another possibility though that we shouldn’t forget about: Maybe the spy is someone who’s (very) active and he didn’t kill anyone to make us believe that the spy is an inactive team. Considering that many of us came to that conclusion when the spy didn’t kill on Day 2 in the last game, I wouldn’t be surprised if the spy deliberately took that course of action.

So to summarize, I can see 3 explanations for the non-kill:
1. The spy team didn’t manage to communicate about whom to kill, but one of them send in a vote anyway. (Personally, I’m not a fan of this theory, but I won’t exclude the possibility.)
2. The informant didn’t identify himself and the spy thought it better not to kill to avoid killing him accidentally.
3. The spy wanted to make us believe he’s inactive, when in fact he’s not.

More math, response to Fuji :3

Spoiler:

I wasn't trying to blame you or saying you're wrong XD I find it fun to talk with you about the probabilities and see if those calculations are right or something is missing or not XD

Spoiler:

I had lots of fun too! And I didn’t feel like you were attacking me or something. It’s true that people are a bit of an uncertain factor though. XD

Maybe we'll get another opportunity to use those math skills.

but people are annoyed by our math, Fuji ;_; *hugs fuji*

*hugs Kleene* I know, it’s so sad.

Math. MAAAAATHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Spoiler:

When it comes to making decisions for game-based properties, I've never gotten into probabilities so much (primarily due to my lack of interest in statistical properties). Instead, I tend to rely more on hard inferences drawn from induction of related (but not necessarily statistical) events. You'll see me using inductive reasoning quite often in situations like this.

Spoiler:

Oh, I like inductive reasoning too and I think it’s very helpful in this game, so you’ll see me apply that as well, I hope. But since there isn’t much to infer anything from on the first day, I thought a different approach might be helpful. ^^

B- but but but.... how do you wanna calculate all the votes then? D:

I don't need to, I just make lists. (plus I do that outside the topic itself )

B-but but but.... MATH! D:

My thoughts exactly.

Speaking of investigations, we still need a method of revealing them. I'm just going to throw something out there for now. It's Day 2 so one investigation will have occurred. If everyone lists one "read" on a team (either Spy, Detective or Civilian) then we have some information to work off (we know who people find susp or innocent) and in the case of the Detective's death we can simply reference their previous posts in order to figure out their investigations. Only one person in each team should do it though to prevent misunderstandings.

This is a very dangerous proposition, imo. For one thing, openly telling people that you think team X is the detective team is an invitation for the spy to kill them. And if your read is right, that’s a very, very bad idea. And moreover this will help the spy narrow down who the detective is. For example, anyone who suggests that the team who has the spy role is civilian is obviously not the detective. So, yeah, speaking as a former detective, this sounds like a pretty bad idea.

On the other hand, I would definitely not vote for Cider/dumytru, because dumytru put in a lot of effort last phase to ensure a tie when he probably wouldn't have if he were on the Spy team. It's possible that he's on the Informant team, but I'm not too inclined toward that possibility right now.

I completely agree.

*very much lost* I am still trying to figure out how to play.... ~_~*

If you have a bit of time, I can recommend reading through the topic for the previous round. It’ll give you a better idea of how the game works, the sort of things people do, and in the post-game talk a lot of people also posted what they’d been thinking during the game etc.
I was new last round and read the round one topic before the start of the game, which I found very helpful.

[Kleene Onigiri]

@Fuji: Yay \o/

Also, I nomminate Team 7: Kamite and breva and we will also vote it

[dumytru]

Team #10 will vote for RoboG55 & Meme.

[Hime-Chan]

*very much lost* I am still trying to figure out how to play.... ~_~*

+1

Also, too much MATHS

Any particular questions you two?

Wasn't expecting so much sepculation about maths, boss
'm silent 'cuz I'm leaaaaarning

[Fujiwara]

Fine, i nominate shinichi'sapprentice as he seems unreasonably disappointed that no one was arrested.

Raifuu and I support the nomination, mostly for lack of better alternatives, but it does seem a bit weird that they dislike the fact that no innocents got arrested.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

Fine, i nominate shinichi'sapprentice as he seems unreasonably disappointed that no one was arrested.

Raifuu and I support the nomination, mostly for lack of better alternatives, but it does seem a bit weird that they dislike the fact that no innocents got arrested.

false. ←*it'll be confusing to negate the sentence so i just said false.*

i am not disappointed because of the said reason. the innocent civilians you are trying so hard not to arrest in day 1 could be spies for all we know.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Welcome to the latest round of Espionage!
Day Three starts now! Actions will be sent shortly

Day Two ends with a tie vote. The civilian team 2, Raifuujin & Fujiwara, was killed!
They left a tattered note behind:

1. Team 5: RoboG55 and Meme
2. Illegible
3. Illegible
4. Illegible
5. Team 4: Jd- and Kaito Lady

Spoiler: Votes Day Three

Team 1, Hime-chan & Stopwatch: Hime-chan & Stopwatch
Team 3, shinichi'sapprentice & googleearth: Fujiwara & Raifuujin
Team 5, RoboG55 & Meme: Cider & dumytru, ToboG55 & Meme
Team 6, Togop and Conan-chandesune: Jecka & miyano_shiho
Team 7, Kamite & breva: KainTheVampire & Jellito, KleeneOnigiri and Miaka
Team 9, KainTheVampire & Jellito: shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth, Jd- & Kaito Lady
Team 11, KleeneOnigiri and Miaka: Togop & Conan-chandesune, Kamite & breva

When voting please include names and team number in order to avoid mix-ups.
Also try to include your team number and names so I can easily tell who voted!!


Phase changes will be daily between 4 PM and 5 PM EST.

PM ME, YURI IWAMOTO, THE GM OF THIS ROUND, WITH YOUR VOTES AND ACTIONS, AS WELL AS ANY QUESTIONS YOU MAY HAVE. ONLY ONE PLAYER FROM YOUR TEAM HAS TO SEND IN ACTIONS FOR EACH PHASE. IF BOTH DO, WHICHEVER WAS SENT LAST IS COUNTED.

[Togop]

Fine, i nominate shinichi'sapprentice as he seems unreasonably disappointed that no one was arrested.

You didn't send in the vote for that? Not that it matters anyway, considering the tie.
The innocence of Raifuujin/Fujiwara partly invalidates my suspicions of Jd-/KL. The point that he stopped first day nominations stands, but it's not very strong.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

see? we don't need arranged tie voting to achieve not arresting "innocent" civilians as you may say.

but man, we lost a brilliant comrade right there. your list shall be handled with great importance.

--

Day 3.

we got two self voters.

what do you guys think is the reason for 'The Consulting Criminals'' death

[Kaito Lady]

rai and fuijiwara D:

[Jd-]

Well... Damn. Admittedly, I was hoping that Fujiwara/Raifuujin wouldn't be the first ones targeted. I'm glad that they were civilians though, at the very least.

Nonetheless, you shall be avenged, my friends! Never fear!

Day 3.

we got two self voters.

what do you guys think is the reason for 'The Consulting Criminals'' death

This is the most interesting thing to me (two self-voters). I'm not discounting either from being the Spies, because they may have taken cues from our discussions here in the topic as far as hiding their activity through apparent inactivity.

[KainTheVampire]

Well, we got hints on the spies/detective, maybe... Depends on if Yuri was nice or not

[Kleene Onigiri]

Miaka and me will be mostly away tomorrow, so we won't be able to post much. So in case there is some strategy for votings going on again, we may not know/see it :V


Funny, the ones we vote are voting for us XD

[Hime-Chan]

I can't vote without dear Stoppy, so I'll see wether she's here tomorrow or not