ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

[breva]

And so it begins \o/

[Conan-chandesune]

Hajimatta... Lets prep, partner....... *looks around* Wait!! Where is he???

[Memesu]

I'm concerned about someone dropping out. I really want to play with everybody but we have an odd number of players! D:

I'm looking forward to working with you, Meme!

Same

[Togop]

Hajimatta... Lets prep, partner....... *looks around* Wait!! Where is he???

Here I am. Let's use this as a team name: "ac5e0e3". It would be fun to watch others (mis)spell it .
Just joking, of course, but if you want it...

[Jd-]

Updates!?

[Conan-chandesune]

Here I am. Let's use this as a team name: "ac5e0e3". It would be fun to watch others (mis)spell it .
Just joking, of course, but if you want it...

I think we should name ourselves Spartans............. And nice to see you..

[Kleene Onigiri]

Team 8 looks fun with the avatars positioned like that. As if they are confessing :3

[Togop]

Here I am. Let's use this as a team name: "ac5e0e3". It would be fun to watch others (mis)spell it .
Just joking, of course, but if you want it...

I think we should name ourselves Spartans............. And nice to see you..

Sure. Let's use Spartans, then.

[Jecka]

Team 8 looks fun with the avatars positioned like that. As if they are confessing :3

It's Shinichi x Shiho everyone
(The character is voiced by Kappei Yamaguchi for anyone who doesn't get it.)

[Fujiwara]

Alright, it's still a bit early, but I thought about this new round a bit today and made a rather important discovery:

If we decide to vote randomly from our lists on Day 1, as was done in the last two rounds, there is a 20% chance that the Detective accidentally gets taken out on Day 1.

Why 20%? First off, the spy team gets to kill a team. Assuming that the informant team manages to successfully reveal itself to them, the spy team will obviously kill neither themselves nor the informant team. With 11 teams in the game, that leaves the spy team with 9 potential victims, one of which is the detective team. They thus have a chance of 1 in 9 to kill the detective team.

On top of that, we'll arrest one team by random (list) vote. We can simplify things and say that every team has the same chance of being arrested, namely 1 in 11. In reality the chances of the spy or detective being arrested are slightly higher, but that just means that saying there is a chance of 1 in 11 of the detective team being arrested is a conservative estimate.

Thus there is a chance of 1/9 of the detective team being killed, plus a chance of 1/11 (or more) of the detective team being arrested, giving a combined chance of about
1/9 + 1/11 = 11/99 + 9/99 = 20/99 <= 20%
of the detective team being taken out of the game on Day 1.

If I were the spy I'd think that those odds are very nice indeed. Since this isn't the case, I think we should do something to change them.

That's why I propose not to vote randomly on the first day. Starting on Day 2 we''l have some more information to go on, but on the first day it's rather difficult to make an even partially informed arrest. Personally, I think it makes sense to aim for a tie in votes the first day and it would be even better if we could aim for a tie but still reveal some of our list information through the votes. I'm not yet sure how that could work out, but I hope everyone else joins in with ideas!

In any case, I think we should avoid voting randomly for the reasons stated above.

[Stopwatch]

I agree on not voting randomly (though I haven't checked through your probabilities thoroughly; I mean, the person arrested could be the person killed by the Spy for example) but in order to have information for which to vote off we need to get people to talk.

[bash7353]

You wanna decrease the chance of the Detective being voted? In that case, rather than voting someone random on your list, vote someone random who's not on your list. In that case the likelihood for both Detective and Spy to be arrested goes down significantly.

I don't think that's a bad play, actually. If we arrest a random civilian that'll probably be a name to cross out on someone's list. I'm inclined to say it's better to play it safe like that.

You're reasoning's off, though, Fuji. You're saying that the Detective being arrested has a chance of less than 20%, which is technically correct. But then you're saying that the Spy is probably very pleased with that, without knowing how much less it than 20% it is.

[dumytru]

This is kinda confusing for me.
We can vote for teams but we can also vote for a single player.
Also Jd- said something about "trying to keep you partener alive", so this means only one player gets arrested/killed, and not a team, right?
If that's so then the chance of the Detective being arrested are really low.
Since there are two detectives, even if we arrested one of them, there's still one alive remaining.

[Kleene Onigiri]

1/9 + 1/11 = 11/99 + 9/99 = 20/99 <= 20%

But your calculation is wrong imo, or more like, doesn't show what random voting actually affects. Since the spy will kill someone anyway, meaning the 1/9 chance that the detective dies after the first phase is there anyway. Which you doesn't really need to consider, since that won't change whether you vote randomly or not.
Also, in your calculation, the detective dies 2x :x One for getting voted (1/11) and once getting killed by the spy (1/9) :x Which you can't add up just like that.

So instead, you'll only consider what happens when we random vote. Since the kill from the spy happens anyway and you can't prevent it (as long as the spy sends in an action).
Now, you could say there is 1/11 chance that someone actually get's lynched and it happens to be the detective. But it's actually lower than 1/11. Because a tie could also randomly happen which would mean that no one was arrested. (but calculating it exactly would be too much work now :x). So there is less than a 9% chance (probably more like 6%) that the detective would be arrested because of random voting. Which doesn't sound so big anymore.

Still, trying to go for a tie could be nice but that would mean that the spy and informant also do that :x

[Iwamoto Yuri]

Teams work like units, that means you vote together, die together and get arrested together