ESPIONAGE: Round Two (Detective and Civilians Win)

[Jd-]

And, to note, I think the reason Raiden got arrested quickly within a phase is he's quite a gentle dude, so he's not really one to be in-yo'-face with a debate and such. As a Spy in future rounds ( ), it'll be good for him to have 2+ informants to help misdirect people from him once his name gets mentioned as Togop did here.

Looks like we had a good alliance going. Good work to all players, Spy/Informant/Detective included. Let's have another good round next time!

Floating this one out there: Does anyone else want to try a "blitz" sort of Espionage next time, perhaps by having two phase changes per day? Or, one and a half phase changes per day, with a clear schedule of when they end every 18 hours or so.

[Fujiwara]

Alright, first off I'd like to thank Stopwatch for GMing for us. Thanks Stop! *hugs*

What an exciting game. I was having a Sherlock movie night with friends earlier and was unable to keep myself from constantly checking my iphone for new developments until the day ended.

I investigated miyano_shiho, RoboG55, Kamite, Edogawa4869, Togop and Breva.

I assumed that the spy was one of the less active players, which did turn out to be the case. Raiden and Breva were actually my top suspects for spy today, all things considered, so when Togop suggested Raiden I was most happy to join in, otherwise I would probably have tried to get people to vote Breva with me and investigated Raiden instead.

I was pretty sure I was going to die today though, so I decided to ninja-post my list of remaining suspects besides Raiden shortly before the end of the day, in order of likelihood:

For tomorrow, I'd like for us to vote for one of the following:
- Breva
- Raifuujin
- monsi
- Jecka

I was confident that if I died the civilians would stand a good chance of winning if they followed that list. Of course, at the time I composed the post I was pretty confident that our 4-people alliance would manage to vote out Raiden, but then as time went on people were doubting the likelihood of Raiden being the spy and I got very anxious that if we didn't vote him out today and I died no one would consider voting him out tomorrow.
Probabilities, people, probabilities! Mathematically everyone has the exact same chance of being the spy/detective/whatever, even though this may seem counter-intuitive.


Now, what I really, really need to say:
Curse you, Jd-, for making me so suspicious of you on Day 1!!

To quote:

I'll be a liiittle be quieter this game just due to some commitments that'll make me miss phase changes, but I'll still show up 'round this time each day to help solve dem mysteriez.

My #1 advice right now: Watch what people are saying. There are two informants, and now the Spy has delivered messages to each of them by now. They somehow have to signal to the Spy who they are in this topic, so we should be on the lookout for suspicious behavior.

Really? Really?

You were my #1 suspect for informant from the very beginning and when you actually started writing your long deliberations I couldn't help but regard everything you wrote with suspicion. In fact, I thought Togop was a civilian for the longest time and only investigated him because you presented him as definitely a civilian together with googleearth and then googleearth died, being proven a civilian. It just made me think I should make sure, because if Togop was the spy, no one would suspect it and we'd all be screwed.
In the end, it was your defense of me which eventually led to my (mostly) trusting you, but not in the way you might expect. Since your reasoning for why I should be civilian was completely irrational and I know you to be a rational person, there were two possibilities: Either you were an informant and had just told the spy to kill me, or you were a civilian with me on their list and wanted to protect me because I might very well be the detective. So when I didn't die yesterday, I was a lot more inclined to trust you today.
I also think that if you hadn't stepped in and defended me yesterday there was a high chance I would have been voted out, so thanks for that. XD

The fact that I couldn't exclude anyone from being the informant by investigating them actually meant that I didn't fully trust anyone at all. Even though Jd- was my #1 choice for informant, I didn't actually exclude the possibility that someone else was the informant and was beginning to become more suspicious of shinichi'sapprentice in particular. Yes, my paranoia level definitely increased as the game went on.

I didn't have breva pegged for the informant at all though, so good job on that.

And Raiden, you were a worthy opponent. *takes hat off*

So, yeah, that's all from me. Thanks to everyone involved for a great game and I look forward to the next round!

[Jd-]

For when Stopwatch comes around: Can you explain what it was that went down on Day 2? I wasn't here for it, so I was confused up till the end as to what really happened back then.

Also, if anyone has any rulings or anything they want to bring to attention, head over to the central information topic and bring it up. We'll add it to the official rules to take care of things.

[dumytru]

I didn't actually exclude the possibility that someone else was the informant and was beginning to become more suspicious of shinichi'sapprentice in particular. Yes, my paranoia level definitely increased as the game went on.

In Round one I thought you could be the Spy, then later I thought shinichi'sapprentice is an informant and breva is the Spy. Never doubted Raiden lol.

1. Yuri Iwamoto
2. Togop
3. Jd-
4. breva
5. Meme
6. Fujiwara
7. Edogawa4869

Floating this one out there: Does anyone else want to try a "blitz" sort of Espionage next time, perhaps by having two phase changes per day? Or, one and a half phase changes per day, with a clear schedule of when they end every 18 hours or so.

Thanks to my timezone, I can be GM on a twelve hour basis
00:00 a.m and 12:00 a.m.
I'm not used to a.m./p.m. format so I might have messed something up, but yeah, 00:00 am (so it should be night there) and 12:00, daytime.

Now, here's the thing: I can do it only two weeks starting from now. Either that, either after three weeks. 1 - 7 March is going to be a busy week for me

[Jd-]

Oh, and:

In the end, it was your defense of me which eventually led to my (mostly) trusting you, but not in the way you might expect. Since your reasoning for why I should be civilian was completely irrational and I know you to be a rational person, there were two possibilities: Either you were an informant and had just told the spy to kill me, or you were a civilian with me on their list and wanted to protect me because I might very well be the detective. So when I didn't die yesterday, I was a lot more inclined to trust you today.

Yep, that was exactly why I did that. I knew that if I left that hanging too long, you may end up actually being arrested and then the loss would definitely be entirely on me. It felt safer to me to ensure no one decided to call for your arrest, especially unless some sort of other information came to light. Glad it all worked out in the end!

[Jd-]

Let me know if there are any things needing correcting in this. Thanks!

[Conan-chandesune]

I voted Jd- cuz i knew that he would probably end up screwing us over, which did happen. I was right, yes?? Also, good job, Fuji. Omaiwa Meitantei desu!!!!!!

[Jellitto]

Well, my list was the following:

1. Kaito Lady
2. Conan-chandesune
3. Raiden
4. googleearth
5. Jecka
6. Meme
7. Cider

The number of alive players on my list decreased quite quickly, so that yesterday only Jecka and Raiden remained. I was pretty surprised about it though.

As for the playing experience, I liked playing this game very much. I was always looking for the phase change to see what would happen next. Also, towards the end, it became even more exciting when there was less people still in the game.

@Jd-: googleearth was killed on day 3, not day 1.

[Jd-]

This was really a great experience, and of course, much thanks to Stopwatch for GMing. It must have been hectic with so many players and having to manage so much.

I'd like to hear Raiden's side of the story now, especially with regard to the orders.

@Jd-: googleearth was killed on day 3, not day 1.

Got it, thanks!

[shinichi'sapprentice]

And lastly, there's shinichi'sapprentice. Difficult that one, very difficult. I'm actually beginning to suspect that he's the informant if it's not Jd-. But I don't really think he's spy. I have no proof, though, it's just the impression I got.

~.~ sorry for being difficult. throughout the game, i started to believe Fujiwara was the detective. he was making good deductions. at least by being suspicious, i thought i'd get the spy pissed off of me so he'll target me instead. but eh,..
when i got my role at prep phase, i initially planned to just stay quiet because i was civilian yet again. i stubbornly believed that these people have no special role:
-Jellitto
-RoboG55
-Kleene Onigiri
-Raiden
stupid reasoning: they are new and the last two were detective-spy in round 1.
---

And last but not least:

About the voting alliance, I guess I'm in for now.

16b427

Just like shinichi'sapprentice, I'd really like to know why you wrote that.

It's not a code. After all, it's way too short to encode much information. For now you can ignore it, though I may refer to it later (probably won't).

so what does this mean?
---
these four people:
-Edogawa4869
-breva
-Togop
-Fujiwara

ignoring my list, these are the top people i was being cautious of. i have no idea of their game style since this is the first time i encountered them. but with round 2 finished, data has been collected.

also, if not already asked, i'd like to hear about the orderssss. what were this round's spy's gameplan??

and, oh, round 1's gamemaster, so you are the quiet-type huh?

Lastly,.. this, is the initial day 2 results:

[Stopwatch]

For when Stopwatch comes around: Can you explain what it was that went down on Day 2? I wasn't here for it, so I was confused up till the end as to what really happened back then.

Does shinichi'sapprentice's screenshot clear that up a bit or...?

[Fujiwara]

And lastly, there's shinichi'sapprentice. Difficult that one, very difficult. I'm actually beginning to suspect that he's the informant if it's not Jd-. But I don't really think he's spy. I have no proof, though, it's just the impression I got.

~.~ sorry for being difficult. throughout the game, i started to believe Fujiwara was the detective. he was making good deductions. at least by being suspicious, i thought i'd get the spy pissed off of me so he'll target me instead. but eh,..
when i got my role at prep phase, i initially planned to just stay quiet because i was civilian yet again.

No, no, don't apologize! I was having lots of fun suspecting you and Jd- of being the informant - it certainly kept me on my toes. XD Also, I am really glad you didn't stay quiet, because I needed more people to talk. Here's the most important conclusion I drew from this round:
Talking people provide a place for the detective to hide, while silent people provide a place for the spy to hide.
I don't mean to bully quiet players at all, I can totally sympathize with people not wanting to say much, but in this game, if you stay quiet you make it harder for the detective to do his job.
Someone said at some point during the game that the spy could just as well be one of the active players. This is of course true as a general rule, but it's still easier to hide amongst the quiet players if there are enough of them, imo.
Moreover, it really helps the detective when people announce who they're going to vote for. This way he can make sure not to investigate the person most likely to be arrested on the same turn and maybe even try to steer some votes away from people he has already investigated (though the latter is a lot more difficult, naturally).

these four people:
-Edogawa4869
-breva
-Togop
-Fujiwara

ignoring my list, these are the top people i was being cautious of. i have no idea of their game style since this is the first time i encountered them. but with round 2 finished, data has been collected.

Uh oh. *hides*

[shinichi'sapprentice]

No, no, don't apologize! I was having lots of fun suspecting you and Jd- of being the informant - it certainly kept me on my toes. XD Also, I am really glad you didn't stay quiet, because I needed more people to talk.

aH! wonder if anybody remembered this:

Now that... is an unexpected turn of events.

I wonder if the spy is inactive, just pretending to be inactive, or is afraid to kill as the second informer hasn't identified himself.

That sums up the possibilities and I'm honestly not sure which is more likely. They killed on the first day, but not the second? I can think of some potential strategies for doing so, but... I'm not sure who's wild enough to actually go through with that.

i wanted to answer this statement of his that HE is one of the people that is wild enough to pull something people would never thought of happening.

[Jd-]

Here's the most important conclusion I drew from this round:
Talking people provide a place for the detective to hide, while silent people provide a place for the spy to hide.
I don't mean to bully quiet players at all, I can totally sympathize with people not wanting to say much, but in this game, if you stay quiet you make it harder for the detective to do his job.

This is definitely true, and was part of the reason I was willing to go for Miyano above a couple of others. Inactive players are really good for the Spy, and the Spy's not very likely to kill those people unless they actually suspect they're the detective. That puts the people already in the spotlight--including the Detective--on the firing line, so the more active we all are, the better.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

oh, and about the Jd- voting for miyano_shiho, i mentioned that he wasn't the detective because he and miyano are both not in my list. if Jd- really is the detective and he investigated miyano and received a result that she was the spy, then what's up with my list?! so it's gotta be the opposite. i trusted miyano's reason for inactivity. proof is her backing out of the most recent mafia round. ~.~ i've been shooting Stopwatch questions left and right because i wanted to make sure i don't break any rules. lots of people were saying that Jd- could be the informant so i said it differently by saying he's no detective. and by settling in with the reasoning that he's not the detective, i confronted the spy by offering to kill Jd-. i was trying to catch the spy's attention so he won't go for the detective. but that was proven useless because it became the opposite. Raiden was aiming for Fujiwara already. and Fujiwara was the one that became suspicious of me.