ESPIONAGE: Round Two (Detective and Civilians Win)

[shinichi'sapprentice]

well i guess you're awake now. my turn to sleep -.-

if you're not the spy, who do you think is? some thoughts will be helpful. this is what i meant when i said i wanted to hear more from you. you're making yourself suspicious by defending yourself.

Later. . .

[Togop]

double post. because who cares.

around 12 hours to go...

this. is why i'm enraged of googleearth's death. now, nobody is talking. of course the detective is going to be extremely cautious. how is that investigate ability of yours coming? day 5 now. you should have 5 people less to worry about. including all the dead and arrested people and also yourself, the number of people that you should be wary of is ten. ten! out of 22 people, you now have a list of ten people!

everybody let's get talking now people!

Lastly, it is now weekends. is Jd- still busy?

Actually, the nature of the game causes silence. Since unlike mafia, the spy only needs to kill one person, tipping him/her about who could be the detective is dangerous. Thus I've refrained from mentioning a bunch of things I would have mentioned in a normal mafia game. In fact, the only things I feel comfortable sharing are suggestions, basic summaries of some of my thoughts, or suspicions.

I was thinking about my tie suggestion, but I guess we won't manage to set up a tie even if we tried.
But we could do something which could give us a clue as to who the spy is. Everyone, post here who you voted for at the time you cast your vote. Some explanation may be helpful as long as it wouldn't tip off the spy.

Anyway, last time I voted for Jellitto because she used false logic. But that was a mistake on my part, as the false logic in question couldn't really help the spy.

Now, I was briefly considering voting for you, thinking that when you asked people to speak up and tell who they suspect is the spy, you may have hoped that someone would slip up and tell something about the detective. But that's a little fat-fetched to base my vote on, so I'm not sure yet who I'll vote for.

[Kleene Onigiri]

double post. because who cares.

around 12 hours to go...

this. is why i'm enraged of googleearth's death. now, nobody is talking. of course the detective is going to be extremely cautious. how is that investigate ability of yours coming? day 5 now. you should have 5 people less to worry about. including all the dead and arrested people and also yourself, the number of people that you should be wary of is ten. ten! out of 22 people, you now have a list of ten people!

everybody let's get talking now people!

Lastly, it is now weekends. is Jd- still busy?

That's not necessarily true. It's possible the detective could have investigated someone who was arrested or killed on the same phase. Or a person he investigated was killed/arrested later on.
That's why I wanted the nominate thing last round when I was the detective. That way I was able to narrow down the people that are likely to be arrested and thus investigate someone that wouldn't be arrested. As a detective I could also try swaying the vote away from people that I already investigated too, which will be a bit harder now because of the Informants.

I'm for voting Meme or Jellitto :x Why? Dunno, a hunch?

[Jellitto]

Anyway, last time I voted for Jellitto because she used false logic. But that was a mistake on my part, as the false logic in question couldn't really help the spy.

Correct. Also, if I were the Spy, I would be much more careful when posting.

I'm for voting Meme or Jellitto :x Why? Dunno, a hunch?

You´re suspecting me again, huh?

I defended myself twice on Day 3, so I don´t really have anything to say right now apart from what I replied to Togop.

I think I´m going to vote for Raiden, since I have no other idea.

[Jd-]

I have been keeping up and have been thinking about how this is going to go. Our numbers are thinning out and we know that among our few remaining ranks, there are also the Spy and remaining Informant.

I have voted for Miyano, because I think that is a good target to vote for. I can't say it's with 100% certainty that this is someone we should see arrested, but... that's what I feel comfortable with right now.

About Day 2, did we mention this already? I think so, but if not: Due to the Spy's kill coming after the daily vote, maybe their target on Day 2 was the one who was arrested? Thus nothing would happen and only one person would be removed that day regardless. I've been busy with a few things this week but have been enjoying the game nonetheless!

One way or the other, we should be looking to get rid of the Informant today. If not, it won't be long before the Spy has the game in the bag. The person that I think is the Detective could end up being the Spy, which would be really bad for a lot of reasons, but mostly just because I think it will be hard to get them arrested.

One last thing:

EVERYONE SEND IN VOTES, PLEASE. WE NEED YOU TO DO SO.

[Fujiwara]

Alright, it's Day 5 now and I agree with shinichi'sapprentice that we should get talking. Both our lists and the detective's list of suspects should have gotten somewhat shorter and random voting will only get us so far ...
I realize I didn't say anything myself yesterday, but I was distracted by that shiny new Conan file, which I think is a pretty good excuse. XD

I'll be honest, I still have no idea who the spy could be ...

Judging from their posts and overall behavior, I think neither Togop nor shinichi'sapprentice are the spy. I'm not certain, of course, but if Togop were the spy then being the first to mention the size of the list during Prep phase

"I got a list with seven names," he said.

When the rules only say

The size of the list is determined by the amount of starting players and will generally be 35% to 45% of that amount.

means he's

• a) One hell of a spy by finding out the list in advance by asking the GM, if that works,

• b) A really, really lucky spy who didn't realize the list might have a different size to the first game, or

• c) A civilian

And somehow I'm inclined to go with c).

As for shinichi'sapprentice, I think his engagement and his visible frustration over the fact that people aren't talking are indicators of his innocence, since silence makes the spy's work so much easier ...

Damn, this game is turning out to be quite difficult. Without even knowing whether my list contains the spy or the detective (or both) one wrong step could accidentally get the detective arrested, especially now that the ranks are thinning ...

About Day 2, did we mention this already? I think so, but if not: Due to the Spy's kill coming after the daily vote, maybe their target on Day 2 was the one who was arrested? Thus nothing would happen and only one person would be removed that day regardless.

That's a very good point. I can't believe no one else noticed. I certainly didn't. Aaand the list of suspects grows again ...

Though I don't have any idea about the spy, I do have a suspicion on who the informant might be ...

I have voted for Miyano, because I think that is a good target to vote for. I can't say it's with 100% certainty that this is someone we should see arrested, but... that's what I feel comfortable with right now.

I don't get the feeling that Miyano is especially suspicious, but more importantly, did you notice that Jd- doesn't give any reason at all and is simply trying to sway our votes? Of course, there's a chance that Jd- is the detective and found out that Miyano is the spy, in which case we should probably listen to him ...

But there's other factors to consider as well ...

Lastly, it is now weekends. is Jd- still busy?

Like the fact that he has been very quiet these past two days. While he may actually have been busy, it seems very out of character for him to be so tight-lipped ...

Like here:

Most likely, the Spy took the chance to kill a player that was presenting a threat.

On another note: I think I know who the Detective is. But... I have no idea who is the Spy.

Not too informative. Not too informative indeed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying all of us have been more eloquent than that, it's just that Jd- himself is usually a lot more eloquent himself ...

And of course there's that post on the very first day, which shinichi'sapprentice pointed out at the time, but which was subsequently ignored by everyone:

I'll be a liiittle be quieter this game just due to some commitments that'll make me miss phase changes, but I'll still show up 'round this time each day to help solve dem mysteriez.

My #1 advice right now: Watch what people are saying. There are two informants, and now the Spy has delivered messages to each of them by now. They somehow have to signal to the Spy who they are in this topic, so we should be on the lookout for suspicious behavior.

Really? Really?

I don't think Jd- is the spy, a possibility which we already discussed in the beginning, but I'm thinking that he just might be the second informant. I could be wrong of course, so I'd like to hear everyone else's opinion on the matter before deciding whether or not to vote for Jd-.

[Kleene Onigiri]

"a) One hell of a spy by finding out the list in advance by asking the GM, if that works,"
It worked for me last round I asked the GM how big the list is :3

Come to think of it.... shouldn't the list be at least 8 person long? O_o since it's 45% to 35% of the amount of players XD (doesn't matter now tho)


@day2: I thought about that too. But I heard that there was an edit in the votes and I thought there was a tie first before the edit? Meaning if there was a kill, it would have showed first?
But I wasn't sure about the edit and what was changed and if there was a tie first O_o and I forgot to mention it XD
Rule wise it doesn't say what would happen first I think.

[Fujiwara]

"a) One hell of a spy by finding out the list in advance by asking the GM, if that works,"
It worked for me last round I asked the GM how big the list is :3

Aha, that's interesting to know. So a) becomes a real possibility as well ...

Come to think of it.... shouldn't the list be at least 8 person long? O_o since it's 45% to 35% of the amount of players XD (doesn't matter now tho)

Yeah, I expected the vote to be 8-10 people long before the game started ...

@day2: I thought about that too. But I heard that there was an edit in the votes and I thought there was a tie first before the edit? Meaning if there was a kill, it would have showed first?
But I wasn't sure about the edit and what was changed and if there was a tie first O_o and I forgot to mention it XD
Rule wise it doesn't say what would happen first I think.

I'm pretty sure the arrest happens first, but I can't find it in the rules right now. But you make a good point. There was indeed a tie first and no one died, which does seem to indicate that the spy didn't kill anyone after all. Hmm ...

[Jd-]

As for me, I have been on vacation this week but that won't stop me from joining in. Tis not my way! I wouldn't vote for me just yet though because I was mostly eliminated in the first day, right? I was voted for by the informant that died so that, at the very least, should make me a very likely candidate for being a civilian. All that's left would be me being the second informant, but I also recommended NOT voting for googleearth or Togop because I was confident they were civilians too. If I were an informant or the Spy, that would be counterproductive and disadvantageous for our side.

As for saying more, let's see how the next one goes. Keep in mind the first day is my hint for now...

[Jd-]

Wait a second... Major breakthrough coming!

[Jd-]

Players Who Are Probably NOT the Spy

Based on past results, the following people are PROBABLY NOT the Spy (including myself):

- Jd-
- Yuri Iwamoto
- Jelitto
- Raifuujin
- breva
- Togop

So, why can we be pretty sure (but not certain) about the people above? It's due to the voting as it corresponded to the kills. Apart from me, who was voted for by the Informant on Day One and thus is almost completely definitely not the Spy, the people above all voted in the first four days for players that became victims. I do not think the Spy voted for his kills just because it's risky to waste a vote when voting for his target could mean a tie and no bonus citizen deaths. It's not really worth it in most circumstances, and since they didn't do it more than once (presumably), I think it's safe to assume everyone in the top list is not the Spy. They may well be the Informant, however, which brings me to my next point.

With this information, we don't actually have to find the Informant right now. What we really need is the Detective to find the Spy for us, with us providing the clues necessary to move things along.

Of course, any of the players listed above COULD still be the Informant. If I were the Detective, I would be using Investigate on anyone below:

- shinichi'sapprentice
- monsi
- Meme
- Jecka
- Raiden
- Kleene Onigiri
- miyano_shiho
- RoboG55
- Kamite
- Fujiwara

---

Now, one thing I think we should conclude and debate as a team: If the Spy sent in a vote, they would have taken the chance to kill and vice versa, almost certainly, right? It would be really strange for the Spy to decide not to kill as a way of subverting the flow of the game. This does not mean anything for future days, but it is important (very important) for past results. The Spy is meant to be required to kill each day (as all actions are required actions). So, keep that in mind as we go along here. Next up--!

The Conan-chandesune Mystery:
How did this happen? The Spy killed one of their two Informants on the very first day. There are numerous possibilities, but the most likely and most probable ones seem to be:

Pure Miscommunication: The Spy was not able to make proper contact with one of the two informants, and accidentally chose them as a victim.

The Evil Strategy: The Spy sent an order asking Conan-chandesune to identify himself, and also said he was going to kill him to preserve his cover. A bold and interesting move, and not one anyone would have expected. An alternative version was that they got Conan-chandesune to identify himself and decided to kill him to preserve their cover without telling him in the Order. Pure evil if so, and commendably brave too.

I'm prone to believe it's the first one. There's too much machination involved in the second, and it would be something I don't think they'd be able to come up with in just one phase unless they'd been thinking about it from the second they signed up.

The Second Informant
By now, it's pretty safe to assume the Spy and Informant have somehow made contact in the topic. How, we don't know exactly, but it should be somewhere in the topic for someone to find. We can't predict how creative they got with the posts but we can safely assume they are now in contact and know each other's identity. This means one thing: They will protect each other if they see their partner getting mentioned as a possible suspect. The Spy less so, of course, because he may not want to stick his neck out and be arrested immediately after his partner. But, the second informant has no choice but to do so. As such, I'd watch out for this.

The Day 2 Conundrum
As was theorized earlier, I believe that the reason no one died on Day 2 was that the Spy actually tried to kill dumytru. If this is true (and it looks like at least Fujiwara agrees with me), that would mean the people who voted for dumytru are almost definitely not the Spy (Raifuujin, breva, and Kaito Lady). They may be the Informant, but they're probably not the Spy.

What to Do Next
This is not a game of easy progression, because anything can happen. Right now, I think we should nominate all of the people that haven't accidentally/coincidentally fallen out of contention for being the Spy. I would recommend the Detective be looking out for the Spy this way immediately, while we arrest the most suspicious on the list and work our way through. Currently, as of this posting, that would be:

- shinichi'sapprentice
- monsi
- Meme
- Jecka
- Raiden
- Fujiwara
- Kleene Onigiri
- miyano_shiho
- RoboG55
- Kamite

We really just don't have an easy way to find the Informant, but we don't have to. They aren't a great, direct danger, unlike the Spy. The Spy has more power, but all the same, they also leave a lot more of a trail to follow.

One thing we haven't looked into yet: The victimology. It's possible that they've chosen everyone purely at random, and it's possible they've taken steps (such as the ones mentioned above and twisted them) to hide their identity. But, every action should be one that's traceable--attempts to hide evidence leave other evidence. Why were dumytru (probably), Conan-chandesune, googleearth, and Edogawa4869 chosen to be killed? Anyone have any ideas? They're all male, at least, which could actually mean something. Or, nothing. Up to someone else to chase that down if they so choose!

[Jd-]

Quadruple Post!

I'm voting for Miyano_Shiho this phase.

I can't say exactly why it is that I would vote for Miyano. But, I am announcing my vote ahead of time and if someone would like to join me, that is fine too. It's based on speculation from information and activity from within the game, so take that as what you will. It's nothing definite by any stretch of the imagination, but to give us a little direction, I'll put my vote out there to be debated/contested/etc.

ADDENDUM: I'm inclined to say that Fujiwara is probably not the Spy nor the Informant. After thinking about that post and the mention of the amount of people on the list from Togop, it seems likely to me that they are both civilians. Togop more so because he was already cleared from before and has numerous things going in his favor at this point, beginning with the earliest results and discussions.

[Fujiwara]

Now this is what I'm talking about. I was expecting something like this from you earlier, Jd-.

I'm not a person who can't be reasoned with and, though I'm not 100% sure you're not the Informant, my suspicions have been allayed a bit. Moreover, I agree that it is more important to catch the spy than the informant. And since I don't think Jd- is the spy I shall not vote for him today.

You make some very pertinent points about Conan-chandesune and the voting as it corresponds to kills, but I have to disagree regarding the Day 2 conundrum.
As Kleene pointed out earlier, for about 5 minutes on Day 2 no one was killed or arrested.
I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who saw it, since shinichi'sapprentice wrote:

my initial reaction before the unforeseen edit:
"what?! terrible! with this, it's just like day 2 all over again!"

If the spy had sent in a kill order for dumytru, the results should have shown dumytru dead and no arrest, instead of no kill and no arrest. From this I think we can safely conclude that the spy didn't, in fact, try to kill someone on Day 2. With that said, I think breva and Raifuujin (whom you excluded based on this, I believe) should be put back onto the list, which then looks like this:

- shinichi'sapprentice
- monsi
- Meme
- Jecka
- Raiden
- Fujiwara
- Kleene Onigiri
- miyano_shiho
- RoboG55
- Kamite
- breva
- Raifuujin

If you excluded the two of them for other reasons, please let us know.

Now, taking into account the fact that the spy didn't try to kill anyone on day 2 and that miyano_shiho's only post happened on day 2, there's 2 possibilities:

a) miyano_shiho is innocent because she wouldn't have forgotten to kill someone after she went to all the trouble of logging in to post, or

b) miyano_shiho purposely posted on day 2 and then didn't kill anyone to establish an alibi

I'm more inclined towards a) myself, so I don't think she's the spy.

If we also take into account Jd-'s vote of confidence for me, we get the following:

- shinichi'sapprentice
- monsi
- Meme
- Jecka
- Raiden
- Kleene Onigiri
- RoboG55
- Kamite
- breva
- Raifuujin

As Jd- said, the list can constitute guideline for the detective and the rest of us. Can we exclude anyone else from the list? What does everyone think?

I intend to vote for Meme today, because she is on the list of remaining suspects and because she posted on days 1 and 3, but not on day 2. I am, however, prepared to change my vote if someone presents a better candidate.

I also hope that more people will post who they're going to vote for and why so that we have a bit more information to work with.

[dumytru]

Whoa. Awesome deductions guys! I'm so excited to see what happens next, even though I'm out of the game

[breva]

As for me, I don't know who will I vote for yet, I'll probably re-read the thread before making a decision