ESPIONAGE: Round One (Spy arrested, Civilians win)

[Iwamoto Yuri]

maybe they have nothing to say

[Jd-]

*checks Yuri's grave to make sure she's still dead*

Only 10 hours left until the phase ends and we see how things shake up. Everybody get in your votes and... let's hope for the best.

[Jecka]

*checks Yuri's grave to make sure she's still dead*

Only 10 hours left until the phase ends and we see how things shake up. Everybody get in your votes and... let's hope for the best.

Actually, remember it's ending at 11 tonight. So 10 hours and 6 mins left. (Unless I happen to get everyone's vote in early enough for it to end on time.)

[Raifuujin]

Kamite did vote thought, so I don´t think he has forgotten about this.
He and Raifuujin seem to be the only ones who haven´t said anything since game started.

I did say something. V:

Lies! You were awake!

I actually have an idea for how to decide who I'll vote for now! I think it'd be fair to at least consider voting for someone who hasn't posted in the topic by the time the round ends, right? I mean... it's possible they have SOMETHING TO HIDE otherwise--!...

...And what about us people who are lurkers by nature? :V

Because, honestly, I can't usually come up with anything pertinent to say, so I just choose to watch for awhile until something interesting comes up.

As the ghost said, I just really don't have much to say.

And, while I'm posting anyway, someone voting doesn't mean they haven't forgotten, since they have a forced vote.

On the Kamite discussion, while I do find it strange for him not to be posting, I don't think I'll vote him just for that, since I'm not all that active in discussions either. :V

[Raiden]

Kamite did vote thought, so I don´t think he has forgotten about this.
He and Raifuujin seem to be the only ones who haven´t said anything since game started.

You can't really base activity on votes giving that the rules are pretty clear if you do not send in a vote, the GM will pick the top of your list (in the case of civilians) or a random player (for Detective/Spy). :V

As for Raifuu, she did make post in round 1 but none since. It could just be that she hasn't anything to add yet--I think Kamite's the only one who has yet to speak in the thread. *Starts the summoning ritual for Kamite*

Edit: Oh look, I get snipe-posted by the GM and KaiRai. :V

[Jecka]

Edit: Oh look, I get snipe-posted by the GM and KaiRai. :V

Snipe? *Hides Korn's rifle* I own no snipes either

[Memesu]

Kamite did vote thought, so I don´t think he has forgotten about this.
He and Raifuujin seem to be the only ones who haven´t said anything since game started.

You can't really base activity on votes giving that the rules are pretty clear if you do not send in a vote, the GM will pick the top of your list (in the case of civilians) or a random player (for Detective/Spy). :V

As for Raifuu, she did make post in round 1 but none since. It could just be that she hasn't anything to add yet--I think Kamite's the only one who has yet to speak in the thread. *Starts the summoning ritual for Kamite*

Edit: Oh look, I get snipe-posted by the GM and KaiRai. :V

Oh right.

I guess I missed that.

[Stopwatch]

maybe they have nothing to say

They don't have to be active constantly; if that's not their play style they don't have to change it (I would much rather be lurking myself tbh), but if we have nothing to base our information off then the Spy may get away by just not saying anything. Besides, we can get Town reads just as much as Spy reads from them speaking.

The lynch on Kamite going through should be a last resort, but it's looking like it's going to happen ATM and it's a shame because I'd much rather lynch off information, not lack of such, because if he turns out to be a Civilian we get almost nothing from this lynch (I say "almost" for a reason however).

We also need to look more at kills. Seen why a certain person was killed; were they onto something? Is it an obvious job at framing someone? And so on.

[miyano_shiho]

*reads completely unrelated story in Jecka's announcement*... Seriously, Jecka made it just to tell everyone that I'm a terrible latecomer >:V

Regarding the votes, I will not attempt to organize a strategy at this phase because, like PT said, that's not going to happen. :V You can depend on the killing patterns of people you know, or your gut feeling or whatever. For now, I will vote someone in my list who's been voted by the most people in the previous day since chances are (...*insert probability discussion here*) I'm sure the lists will be of more use as more people get eliminated.

I say Rai not being very active in the thread is perfectly normal, and actually I'd expect Kamite to post more than Rai did :x

[dumytru]

I think I'll go for a random vote today too.

Funny how random.org would keep giving me Yuri, Monsi and myself in a row.

[Jecka]

*reads completely unrelated story in Jecka's announcement*... Seriously, Jecka made it just to tell everyone that I'm a terrible latecomer >:V

I had nothing better D:
Plus I was late in the story too :V


And I just realized both of my "siblings" are now out of the game. :x

[Stopwatch]

*reads completely unrelated story in Jecka's announcement*... Seriously, Jecka made it just to tell everyone that I'm a terrible latecomer >:V

I had nothing better D:
Plus I was late in the story too :V


And I just realized both of my "siblings" are now out of the game. :x

Aha! Motive!

[bash7353]

[...] (miyano_shiho and googleearth said something about probabilities) [...]

I did indeed say something about probabilities. However, at this time I'm gonna have to offer a redaction because the numbers I've given you are simply wrong. This is what I said:

The list should not be ignored. What's good in the list is that there is a guarantee that the spy or detective, or both, are in there. It gives us something to start with. We have 6 people out of 18 in the list, and each person there has a 1/6 or 1/3 probability of having a role, as opposed to 1/12 from choosing one of the other 12 not in the list, which is obviously much lower. (Sorry I'll just keep talking in terms of probabilities now :V) These apply to both the spy and detective but there is still a very low chance we'll hit either of them in the early phases. Also, if we make sure everyone votes someone from their list, we'll soon narrow down the players in each of our lists.

As of right now, the chances that besides civilians only the detective is in your list is 3/7, the chance that only the spy in your list is 3/7 as well. Then there's a 1/7 chance that both are part of your list. Obviously those chances are gonna change throughout the game depending on who is arrested and whether they're on your list.

[...]

Well, I'm sad to say that's not true. At the beginning of Prep Phase, when you have no information other than your own role as civilian and your list, there's a 1/5 chance, or 20%, that both non-civilian roles are on your list and a 4/5 chance, or 80%, that only one of the two non-civilian roles is on your list, giving each the detective and the spy a chance of 2/5 or 40%.

If civilians that are on your list get arrested or executed, chances will change, but only slightly. So, as an example: If one of Yuri and Monsi (not both of them, just one) are on your list, the chance of both non-civilian roles being on your list just decreased to 5/29, or roughly 17.24%, whereas the chance of both non-civilian roles being on your list increased to 24/29, or roughly 82,76%.

While I think it's interesting to see the numbers behind the randomness, I wouldn't attribute too much importance to these figures. The only thing that I think is important to note is that as long as both non-civilian roles are still alive, the odds of having the detective on your list is just the same having the spy on your list.

All of the above is obviously analysis that's only based on things you know for sure, i.e. your own role as civilian, your list and the identity of all the players whose roles have been revealed due to their death or arrest. It can't consider any suspicions you might have because of posts in the topic. Or, possibly, lack thereof.

[...] And PT and me are now trustworthy? Keikaku doori!

That a confession, Kleene?


As far as today's voting decision is concerned, I'll agree with Raifuu. Just 'cause Kamite or Raifuu don't post as much, I won't consider them more likely to be the spy - or the detective for that matter. At the same time, I won't consider them less likely to be, either.

[Kleene Onigiri]

I think Kamite would definitely talk more if kamite would be the detective. Since being the detective would mean you have to support and win with the civilians. While the spy is "winning alone" and can do some risky strategies because of that
I'll vote Kamite still :V

@googleearth: confession? I dunno what you mean? :3 *flees*

[Kamite]

Woah didn't realized you have to be active here, for you not to get killed. If that's case I should be voting Jd- since he talks to much. BTW I did vote last night.


EDIT although you know what I find interesting. Assuming nobody votes on the first night. Then the person on everyone's list will be voted instead. Then wouldn't than person
be a civilian since it would end the game a little bit to early. That person on first of the list being the spy.