Kogorous Riddle Thread and eworms Deduction Thread

[sstimson]

Got a question. What happens if you are trying to chose from a empty jar? You did say all 100 marbles are in one of the two jars, meaning you could put all of them in one jar.

Spoiler:

Jar 1=100 Jar 2=0 chance=50 %, jar 1 99 jar 2=1 chance =50% and here why.you can step up one jar a certain winner, but by doing that you decrease you change is the other jar as that is now 50 black and 49 white or 49/100 of choosing the white one. you also said you could for example put all black on top, and if the executioner is forced to change all the blacks to whites then one jar would be a certain win, and the other would have all white on the top, meaning taking a one from the top of that jar is also a certain winner.

[livvlaughlovee]

What I meant when I said that was that it would be evenly mixed, bad choice of wording on my part, I know.
Uhm, I guess if you choose from an empty jar, you die by default.
I'll go back and edit the riddle in a bit...

[Kogorou]

I still can't believe that this thread gets so much attention
Starting next month I can finally play with you guys again

[redangelran]

guys here are so cool!
*continues reading riddles and answers

[lucky777]

Say where is eworm anyway? I haven't seen him post here for quite awhile.

As for the riddle, a random guess

Spoiler:

Distribute the marbles anyway you want.
Chances are 50% of living, you don't know how the executioner is going to mix it and you're blindfolded so no way of knowing which technique to ensure a high chance

Another idea would be

Spoiler:

To have 1 layer of black marbles then on top of that you'll have white layers of marbles then black then white again, make sure the last layer is white. So say you have 10 black marbles at the bottom then on top of that is 10 white marbles sitting on top.
Alternate until you run out. This method ensure's that there is at least an approximate even amount of marbles on top  layer of the jar once mixed up, so maybe roughly 50% chance of living

[MDavid]

‎

[kuttu555]

Spoiler:

Arrange the marbles such that all the marbles on top of the jar are black ,
like put 50 white marbles into the jar first then put the 50 black ones .
Now suppose the no: of marbles on top be 'n' .Since the riddle says ,
"He would then mix the jars up so that none of the marbles which were originally on top would still be on top, and you would be blindfolded." ,
the 'n' black marbles which were on top would not be there after the executioner mixes them up .
So when the prisoner is asked to select a marble ,the mixture will have 50 white and (50-n) black marbles to choose
from ,giving him more chance to pick a white one than black marbles.(Assuming he picks from the top)

Another theory ,
The ruthless executioner is just toying with him ,giving him false hope .No matter how the marbles are arranged ,
when the prisoner is blindfolded the executioner mixes the jars in such a way that all the marbles on top of both jars are black ,making the chances of
survival 0 .

[Kogorou]

WELLLL, seeing as how sstimson defers to another the right to post a puzzle, and if defer means what I think it means, then I suppose it should be alright if I post a riddle? 


You are a prisoner on death row, and your executioner is ruthless and enjoys playing games with his prisoners. He gives you two jars, with 50 marbles each. In one jar, the marbles are white, and in the other, the marbles are black. Before you are executed, he gives you a chance to survive. He lets you redistribute the marbles however you want, as long as all 100 marbles are in one of the two jars. He would then mix the jars up so that none of the marbles which were originally on top would still be on top, and you would be blindfolded. You would be given one of the jars at random, and you'd have to select a marble out of the jar provided. If the marble is white, you live, and if it's black, you die. How should you redistribute the marbles so the chances of survival are at their highest, and what is this maximum probability?

The problem with this riddle is that one jar is definetly empty of marbles.
So unless you really get the jar with the marbles you are dead.
If you get the jar with the marbles do the following beforehand:
Put the black marbles atop of the white ones; Thus the white marbles will be brought to top by mixing them up.

So the maximum probality is 25% for you to survive, if the game is fair.
It's 0% if the executioner is playing unfair.

Well I would still say that this riddle has some failures because of the executioner. Unless he plays fair you are dead.

[lucky777]

You are a prisoner on death row, and your executioner is ruthless and enjoys playing games with his prisoners. He gives you two jars, with 50 marbles each. In one jar, the marbles are white, and in the other, the marbles are black. Before you are executed, he gives you a chance to survive. He lets you redistribute the marbles however you want, as long as all 100 marbles are in one of the two jars. He would then mix the jars up so that none of the marbles which were originally on top would still be on top, and you would be blindfolded. You would be given one of the jars at random, and you'd have to select a marble out of the jar provided. If the marble is white, you live, and if it's black, you die. How should you redistribute the marbles so the chances of survival are at their highest, and what is this maximum probability?

I thought all 100 marbles has to be in 1 jar. So you can't separate them can you? Otherwise if you can then MDavid is pretty much correct.

[MDavid]

‎

[livvlaughlovee]

Spoiler:

We can make it to be higher than 50% for sure. If we put 1 white and 0 black marble in one of the jars then the chances are roughly

0.5 * ( 100% + 49.5% ) = 74.75%.

In this case by separating a single white marble we increased the chances by 50% in Jar#1 and reduced by only 0.5% in Jar#2 compared to the original 50-50%. I guess this is our best bet.

So let's say the original chances are 50% in each jar. If we mess with the marble ratio, we can make it higher in one of the jars, but then in the other jar it will become lower. So we have to achieve the highest possible increase with the lowest possible decrease.

We can't achieve more than 100% possibility, so the increase part is ok. Since the numbers of marbles are integers, the closest we can get to 50% is 49/99. So this part is ok too. QED

We are lucky that the mathematically possible highest increase and lowest decrease are happening at the same time.

Yeah, this was pretty much correct. I was trying to make it less vague, but probably ended up confusing everyone even more. Ehehe ^^;

MDavid, it's your turn~~

[MDavid]

‎

[livvlaughlovee]

Was it taped somewhere?

[MDavid]

‎

[Silver1412]

Is it under the fan?