*SPOILER FREE* Discussion Thread: Detective Conan Files 818-

[shubhoshinichi]

Yeah, that's what i'm offering .. speculation. But, its awesome .. Two recent files!

[Something-]

Will Ran play a big role in this arc?

views of her movement seem to be so,most likely she follow ai and lost her and meet BO member mostly vermouth..
but if she does perhaps shiho-ran confrontation will we see  :o

[MaitreDétective]

How do you know those answer you will have the correct answer? The best the can do is speculation which every one can.

you just cited plato's philosophy!

[User 4869]

How do you know those answer you will have the correct answer? The best the can do is speculation which every one can.

you just cited plato's philosophy!

It's not a big deal. Elementary, my dear Dawson.

Anyway. I when I reread my post, I think it's come out to direct so I hope no one got offend. What I'm try to say is only Gosho know the answer so speculation won't get us anywhere .(Even though it may be the best thing we can do at the moment)

[kholoudsafir]

Will Ran play a big role in this arc?

I hope so. When Ai was clinging cutely on her I was annoyed that Ran did not notice her, but I am happy that she did she did not listen to Sonoko.

[James Rye]

Have read 820/821 and am HYPED AS SHIT!
Finally we got to know the last words Shiho´s mom told her and that the name of the drug was Silver buller, or project name whatever, the same name Vermouth used for Conan.
And it was never meant to be created... dun dun duuuuuun~

Awww, and Shiho´s so cute when she´s frightful clinch to Ran or has those tiny tears in her eyes and that afraid expression of her is to die for (heh, pun).^g^
Am i a masochist/sadist? <_<;

[kuro_shiro]

here goes my theory

Spoiler: sealed room trick

this trick was done by threads to seal lock from inside.the chain has a loop at the end which can be used to carry it with threads.there are lots of places which can be used for passing through threads and making it easy for it.
the only problem is moving threads to place chain lock, as culprit can't see from outside
this problem can be tackled in a tunnel where windows will act as mirror allowing culprit to see the chainlock from outside through a small opening allowing door to be locked.
hence it can be done only when train is in a tunnel.

Spoiler: alibi trick

the above trick was utilised by  andou.
first idenami uses a fake excuse to bring conductor and then stalls him.
during this period andou is in murobashi's room and he kills murobashi.
he comes out opens his cabin door so conductor can't see him.
andou then seals the room. komino and her maid come from cabin D pass through andou and goes to entrance of cabin where they meet conan.
meanwhile andou finishes the sealing and closes his door and pretends to have come out from it and goes towards idenami.
thus by komino's and her maid's lies andou's alibi is created

this trick can be performed in coach 8 only as alibi is created through people who were in coach 8

[Wakarimashita]

Have read 820/821 and am HYPED AS SHIT!

Wow, that must be...intriguing.

[Kogorou]

Has anyone thought about the possibility that Okiya is Yusaku in disguise working for FBI/CIA?

It would explain why Shinichi feels so comfortable around him and maybe that Woman is Yukiko.

[Leuconoe]

The mystery woman is totally Kir in a wig. It explains the lipstick and wig hair in Okiya/Shinichi's house (meeting in secret) and the worried look from Scar Akai/ Vermouth who already holds Kir's loyalty suspect. And I don't think Okiya would have the same accomplice-like attitude towards Yukiko ('heavens are on our side'/'come into our territory.') And although Shinichi is willing to use his mother in slightly more dangerous situations than he would with Ran or Kogoro, I don't think he'd put her in the much riskier situation of working side-by-side with Akai.

Also, it's interesting how Okiya is using his knowledge of Shiho, knowing that if he comes and frightens her that she will immediately run and take the antidote. I wonder how that fits in to their big plan.

[Conan 48:69]

I wonder when Scar Akai speaks to Sera in File 821 adopted into anime, Scar Akai's voice is still Shuichi Ikeda or not. If it's other person's voice, then Scar Akai is not real Akai. However, we may know true identify of Scar Akai before File 821 adopted into anime, or even within this series.

[Jd-]

The mystery woman is totally Kir in a wig. It explains the lipstick and wig hair in Okiya/Shinichi's house (meeting in secret) and the worried look from Scar Akai/ Vermouth who already holds Kir's loyalty suspect. And I don't think Okiya would have the same accomplice-like attitude towards Yukiko ('heavens are on our side'/'come into our territory.') And although Shinichi is willing to use his mother in slightly more dangerous situations than he would with Ran or Kogoro, I don't think he'd put her in the much riskier situation of working side-by-side with Akai.

We talked about it being Kir and I'd be down for that, except Gosho better have a very good explanation. Foremost, why would she ever meet Akai (Okiya) directly, and especially in the house he's staying in? Gin doesn't trust Kir, so her sneaking off like that is just risky for no viable reason, especially when he isn't fully convinced that Akai's really dead. Not only that, she'd be leading any sort of Borg tail right to where not just Akai is staying, but where Conan, Haibara, and Agasa can often be found next door. That plan is unnecessarily risky in so many ways. Digital conferencing seems significantly safer than meeting directly, but if they have to meet directly to plan disguises or something, then they better do it at a neutral location. There are ways to make it work with it being Kir, but... there are also a lot of holes that I hope Gosho will fill in at the time of reveal if so, to avoid this being a mess.

Now, she's on the train and is speaking directly with him where they could be overheard or seen together at any time. If their plan was to work together, actually spending any sort of time conversing or associating directly in any way--especially on a train that the Borg is obviously focusing their attention on--only seems effective in increasing the likelihood they're caught, not them being able to work better together.

[leokiko]

Besides, Kir wouldn't be so careless as to leave traces of her lipstick and hair on Shinichi's house. I crossed her off the list of possibilities a long time ago.

[M1313]

Well, it seems things are really like this: I cannot think this is another red herring, so I must admit Sera is really Akai's little sister; but it's better if we schematize plot-related events of this Mystery Train case.

---

Since Sherry was seen by Amuro, Okiya and Sera, the three of them boarded the train because of Sherry's Mystery Train Pass Ring. Bourbon, who is one of them, told Vermouth about this and Vermouth passed the information to Gin and Vodka.

Observation: the fact Vermouth warned Gin means she doesn't want him to interfere, as he himself stated; Vermouth probably wants to do something with/to Ai, maybe to kill her after a brief conversation: if we consider the fact in File 820 Elena's tapes show up again (not something unimportant, you know), we might have the opportunity to know something really important about the Organization or about its aim through their dialogue.

In File 818 nothing suspicious happens: Sera simply stays with Ran, Sonoko and Conan; also notice the bad look on Conan's face. Then, Scar Akai leaves a cabin and Ai's sense heavily reacts, even before she saw him. While we cannot say anything about Scar Akai's handedness (opening a door is not an evidence, because a left-handed could normally open a door with his right hand if necessary), it is certain that he is a member of the Black Organization: it is very unlikely (if not impossible) that he is the real Akai, though (even if Ai's sense reacts towards him too).

Observation: he is not the real Akai... even if he is a different person from the Scar Akai we've seen before, his attitude towards Sera at the end of File 820 is not something that would come from a good character who just encountered his little sister... plus, why should Akai be on the train without a disguise? If he is there he is there because he knows the Black Organization is going to attack, or at least knows of Sherry's Pass Ring; and it's not the wisest thing to have them know he is still alive. But if he is someone in disguise, why dressing like that? If you disguise as Akai, then you want to make everyone think you are Akai: but no-one who knows Akai could think at first glance he is the real deal... he is not believable, that is. This makes me think that he only wants to lure someone out with the disguise, not firmly convince someone of Akai's existence, as Scar Akai did appearing in front of the FBI in the previous cases, to be sure they didn't help Akai in faking his own death (they were colleagues of Akai, they know of the encounter with Rena at Rahia Pass, hence the scar... it had to be a believable disguise); the one to be lured out doesn't seem to be Ai... could it be Sera? Scar Akai's face at the end of File 820 seems a found-my-prey one...

File 819 doesn't tell us anything important, but Ai remembers that man who was on the train and thinks he is Dai Moroboshi (Akai); and she wonders about the scar on his face. Probably not important, but we notice that Sera was playing in that fake-deduction quiz with Sonoko, Ran, Conan, Ayumi, Genta, Mitsuiko and the victim: maybe she did it because Ran and Sonoko wanted to, but it would seem strange for a Black Organization member (if she was so) to waste time with things like these; but her personality makes me think she would do something like this even if she was part of them, not to mention that since Conan and the others were the "detectives", she could meet Ai during the quest. And so does she: Ai enters the room she stays in with Conan and Sera is able to talk to her for the very first time, while Ai's sense is on again. Her reaction towards Sera seems less exaggerate compared to the one she had towards Scar Akai (so this could mean that Sera's contacts with the Organizations are minor than Scar Akai's ones?). During the conversation Sera spots Scar Akai, but she isn't able to see him; he was spying of them. At this point, the usual murder takes place.

Things swell up with File 820, when Conan receives something on his cellphone: it is 99% sure it was a message from someone. After this, he orders the kids not to leave their room when they reach it, but it is not clearly because of the murder since Conan never had such a reaction even though the children have already been a lot of times with Conan in situations like these: but they never were present during a showdown with the Black Organization, so the reason behind his behaviour must be this; someone told him that members of the Organization are on the train. Even if he wasn't told they are after Sherry, he could have easily guessed it. Then, Scar Akai encounters Ai once again, but at the same moment Amuro shows up in front of Ai, Sonoko and Ran. Okiya spies on Amuro, and he says something about being very lucky: in fact, that mysterious lady gives a smile while doing something with her cellphone. Kogoro and the others investigate about the murder, but after some pages we are told (but we already almost know it) that Mitsuiko sent the video from the camping to Kogoro and that he probably uploaded it into the Internet; Ai can now guess the reason behind her sensations. Gin and Vodka's speech at the end makes us understand that Vermouth and Bourbon are on the train, that Vermouth (or Bourbon) somehow spotted Ai and told Gin about it... and that Gin is very happy since he can have Sherry killed; nothing new, I guess.

File 821 is another full-of-mysteries-chapter: Conan receives another message, but his face isn't that worried anymore: he probably already knows about the Organization being on the train and that may only be an update about the situation sent by the same person who sent the first message to Conan. Ai receives a message from an unknown address, and it is a message signed by Vermouth which says "Are you ready?". Ai obviously thinks the meaning is: "We know you're there and we're there as well: are you ready to die?". Then Ai uses an excuse to exit the room and thinks about those famous tapes her mother left to her: Elena and Atsushi were preparing a drug called the "Silver Bullet", something the scientists were getting excited about; a terrifying drug...: the last sentences are to be interpreted: Elena says she had "to leave her and Akemi in order to complete it", and Ai cries thinking that the drug "was something that shouldn't be made": but what she is holding seems like a "normal" antydote to APTX4869. Then Okiya shows up in front of Ai and asks her if she wants to "enter their area": Ai runs away while Okiya smiles, but she seems really sure to take the antydote in order not to be killed with a kid's body. Then, Sera runs towards Ayumi, Genta and Mitsuiko's room while Amuro sees her and does something with his phone. Scar Akai and the lady meet each other; the lady says something we cannot hear to Scar Akai who seems at the very least a little bit worried. Then Sera encounters him, asks him who he is... and well, he speaks for the very first time, calling her "Masumi". Sera calls him "Shu-nii"... is Sera Akai's sister, after all?

My opinion:
- Who are Bourbon and Vermouth?
I assume, as most reliable theory, that Bourbon is Amuro and Scar Akai, and that Okiya, if not Akai, is still a "good" character; Sera is the only character Conan is worried about and thus she's almost certainly not part of the Black Organization because of Gosho's style in putting red herrings; same goes for the hat lady with him. Vermouth and Bourbon are obviously in disguise, both on the train; but Bourbon is likely Amuro, who is also the Scar Akai we saw at the bank, at the shop, in front of Sera in 801. Then, the fact Amuro and Scar Akai appear separately on the train means that one of them is someone else in disguise. The most simple guess is that Amuro is... Amuro, who is Bourbon, and that Vermouth disguised herself as Scar Akai. But why?
At first I didn't understand, but... what if Vermouth is doing what Gin suggested in File 818? "Making her flee in fear", so that "she'll expose herself to the barrel of the gun"? That is, with her message Vermouth warned Ai of the Organization's presence, and Ai will panic and carelessly expose herself to them. This would explain why Scar Akai keeps in appearing in front of her: does he want to frighten her? Again, it would make sense if he was Vermouth in disguise.

On the other hand, there are also some problems: it's not like Vermouth to make faces like the one she made while looking at Sera, not at least while in disguise; and what's Amuro's (Bourbon's) role here? He did almost nothing, until now. And Scar Akai, if Vermouth, doesn't have a cellphone so it would be a little unfair if it was him who sent the message to Ai and Gin, while Amuro and the hat lady were seen having one of them.

So... what if Scar Akai is Bourbon, and Amuro in disguise (as in the previous cases), while the Amuro on the train is Vermouth in disguise? With things like this, we can explain some points: Amuro (Vermouth) saw Ai with Ran and Sonoko and warned Gin with his phone we see in File 820; Bourbon wanders as Scar Akai showing a good disguise but a bad acting skill (I've already said that no-one would think at first glance he is the real one, not at least in this case), and as he encounters Sera alone he probably plans to do something with her (if Scar Akai were Vermouth, she wouldn't even be able to know Sera's name nor to recognize her, even though Akai was part of the Organization: but Bourbon hates Akai even more than Gin, so we can guess something happened between the two and it's not strange to think he knows his sister).
Vermouth disguised as Amuro because in this way she could approach Ran (and Ai) without alarming her, and would be able to control the situation and reach Ai as Bourbon captures her; Ai doesn't seem to have felt Amuro with her BO sense, but this is a problem even if Amuro was... Amuro, and then Bourbon.

I don't say this is "more probable", but I think they are equally ranked in theories, as without further evidence we can only know about the allegiance of each character, but not his final identity.

- Who sent the messages to Conan?
Conan's allegiance is "good", so there's no point in thinking he received messages from Amuro or Scar Akai; it's true, it could have still been Vermouth, but why not to let the readers see them as we were allowed to with the one sent to Ai? After all, if it's Vermouth's, it has to be just a "I'm here" message or so. Sera cannot be since she was with him when he received the first and the second message. The only two characters left are Okiya and the hat lady. The lady had a phone, too. But what was the content? Judging by Conan's behaviour, one of them warned him of the presence of the Black Organization on the train: but Okiya sees Amuro only after Conan received the message, and the hat lady seems to be still writing something; though, the hat lady (or Okiya) could have already noticed Scar Akai and told Conan about that, and the second message could be about Bourbon (Amuro) being on the train as well.

- What is Amuro doing with his cellphone?
As Sera runs, Amuro is seen doing something with his cellphone: if he is Bourbon, he may have recognized Sera as Akai's little sister and maybe he was warning Vermouth so that she'll be more careful in doing whatever she wants with Ai; if Amuro is Vermouth in disguise, she could have just sent the message to Ai: she dosen't seem to be wrinting something, after all: she could have already written the message and sent it, and we see her after she has just finished typing.

- Who is the hat lady?
She is surely someone allied with Conan and Okiya: if Okiya is Akai, I would bet an FBI colleague, probably Fusae Campbell as already stated in some theories; but her identity is not that important, once we understand she's NOT Vermouth, as instead Gosho wants us to think. We cannot rule Yukiko out, though.

- What did the hat lady tell to Scar Akai?
If (as I read) she's Yukiko, and Scar Akai Vermouth, she could have just said something so that Vermouth would understand she's her friend Yukiko: but why to do so? However, it was not something so excessive: Scar Akai just appeared to be a little bit worried, and looked at her in a strange way, but if she made him understand who she was or that she knew who he was, he would have chased her nevertheless Sera's arrival.

- What is Bourbon's aim?
Bourbon should be on the train to help Vermouth in Sherry's search, but some hints make me think that he also has an own aim... and that is Sera: he only shows up in front of Ai but doesn't do anything, and when he spies on her in File 819 Sera was there too: could it be that his objective is Sera? After all, he started talking when he was alone with her, and it seems concerned in her: we shouldn't forget that Bourbon hates Akai and that Sera is probably his sister: and if Bourbon promised to Vermouth he wouldn't harm Ran, it makes sense the fact he seemed worried when he saw Sera in File 801 but didn't attack her, since Ran was there; and now that they're alone...

Conclusion:
Plot-related speaking, the situation doesn't seem that complicate: we are able to tell the red herrings apart easily, but the only tough thing is to associate a meaning to each contact (the messages of the hat lady, the ones received by Conan, the one probably sent by Amuro, the ones sent by Vermouth, what the lady told to Scar Akai); and there aren't so much possibilities (e.g., Scar Akai could only be Vermouth or Bourbon, other choices are so unlikely we could even not to consider them).
In conclusion, we should just think about these "contacts" and, testing one by one all this few possibilities, we should rule out the impossibile ones (basing on evidence from the manga, if possible), and order the left ones by likelihood level: the one ranked on the top would almost certainly be the truth, unavoidably.

[Kor]

So I finally marathoned the last 17 chapters and I couldn't help but laugh by the time I got to chapter 21. It is suspenseful but just seeing all of the plot related characters in one case makes it feel like a potential for a hilarious trainwreck (............eh......sorry for the pun....). it's probably just me, but after seeing Okiya and Amuro (potentially Bourbon) being a bit (let's admit) useless for so much time, seeing them now in action makes it feel a bit comedic for, and it feels a bit like a competition of "who's going to be first to find Haibara, or meet with each other, or be revealed, etc.".

Anywho....
This was definitely said by others already - Okiya and mystery woman - feels like Gosho is still sticking to fooling us that Okiya is Bourbon, and decided to also add that woman to makes us think it's Vermouth. If that was indeed Gosho's intention, I'm a bit insulted as a reader cause Vermouth would be the last person to put a hat and become a "mystery woman", because she could disguise as anyone.
So Okiya is Akai. Mystery woman.....well first time I saw her I thought Yukiko.....I just don't want her to be Yukiko cause that would be like repeating something we've already seen more than once (Hey kids, remember the case that Yukiko was disguised and she was on a train?)
I was a bit thrown a little by having both SA and Amuro appear separately, so it was more or less eliminating the possibilities for me of who could be Vermouth and who could be Amuro (speculated on Bourbon being Amuro and Vermouth being SA). Thanks to the last pages of the chapter that also became clearer. Until now SA didn't talk, now apparently he can. It has been speculated that SA never talked because Bourbon can't mimic people's voices like Vermouth. If SA can talk now, then it has to be Vermouth.

The Haibara's tape thing, as much as I appreciate the fact that Gosho didn't forget about it, was a let down.

For the case itself.....I found it hilarious that I could predict more or less Kogoro's deduction. Happened quite a few times for me actually. Kogoro's deductions are usually the "easy" route to handle the tricks, though obviously also the wrong route.

EDIT: By the way - there is a slim chance of having a Kaito Twist in this chapter. Kaito Kid sometimes goes to the scene prior to his schtick, so what better time is there to go if not when the train is active? The only disguise I can see Kaito in is as a conductor.