Mafia Round 35: Horror at Hogwarts (Starting this Friday/Saturday!)

[lyndsi]

Only one of my wills have been used....mine end up epic....and then I don't die it's kinda depressing....

[pofa]

Congrats town, great playing. ^^ And thanks for bearing with another one of my epic anokata losses, BO.

@everybody: I'm sorry I was in such a bad mood this round. There were various rl reasons for it, but I should have gotten over it and tried harder. And I definitely didn't mean to hurt anyone's feelings, so sorry if I did. *hugs everyone*

And someone asked me whether I didn't get on chat the past couple of weeks because I was mad because of the game. D: That's not true at all. I haven't been on first because of being too busy with my thesis and then because my laptop crashed and I can only log on a couple of times a day now until I get it fixed. So in case anyone else was thinking I was mad at them, I'm sorry. ;_;

And thanks for the round, hopeless, I was glad to be BO with little bro again. <3

[Schillok]

What I meant was: As the lovers DIDN'T get lynched, knowing they were lovers did not prove you were Yumi as all the BO knew they were lovers and knew that they wouldn't die from being lynched.  and since you prevented them from dying, it never really got confirmed that they actually were lovers.
Your math makes the tremendous mistake that it assumes an even number of BO and town. The probability of the lovers being both town is actually (17/23)²=54,63%. My whole problem is, that I don't understand why so many people seem to hab trusted you before Eve got lynched. As lynz got to live, this did not really confirm anything, and having a BO lover arrested instead of lynched makes no sense for a townie, even if you know another BO to lynch already. Had I been town, I probably would have been more wary, not more cooperative. Round 14 was similarly one-sided in the town's favour and there it was easy to see how the huge alliance formed. I (Haibara) got confirmed as a child by the lovers during N1, and stumbled upon the three DBs on D1. The rest was a cakewalk. In this case I don't see it. If anything, it puzzles me more after reading your post.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking. The chance of a town/town pair is higher than for one involving a BO. It might be slightly favorable over random lynching because there are a few town roles that can't be lovers. But for that you would have to know which of the 4 ppl you had chosen are lovers in the first place.

It looks like there was quite a lot of luck involved - don't get me wrong, you finding out players who are BO just by the way they answer to your PMs is great. Imagine what would have happened if the day 1 lynch would have ended in killing town lovers. From that point it would have been much harder to trust you (or anyone who voted with you)...

[Yurikochan]

Can we do something about players sending their wills to each other to circumvent erasing or am i the only one who thinks that's a little cheap?

Why?

Not a lot of people do it anyway, and really only if you trust the person you're planning to send it to.

Now I will say DO NOT send your actions to the GM and then also BCC othe players on that same PM. That has happened a few times (I've never done it, and I won't name names of who has).

Unless you have a BFF, lover, or DB partner.

(Also reading the thread still brb)

[Eve]

And thanks for the round, hopeless, I was glad to be BO with little bro again. <3

<3 <3 <3 ^^ I was glad too Aniki ^_^ hopefully we'll be together again soon
Meaning next time you play, I might play as well ^^

[KangarooGirl]

What I meant was: As the lovers DIDN'T get lynched, knowing they were lovers did not prove you were Yumi as all the BO knew they were lovers and knew that they wouldn't die from being lynched.  and since you prevented them from dying, it never really got confirmed that they actually were lovers.
Your math makes the tremendous mistake that it assumes an even number of BO and town. The probability of the lovers being both town is actually (17/23)²=54,63%. My whole problem is, that I don't understand why so many people seem to hab trusted you before Eve got lynched. As lynz got to live, this did not really confirm anything, and having a BO lover arrested instead of lynched makes no sense for a townie, even if you know another BO to lynch already. Had I been town, I probably would have been more wary, not more cooperative. Round 14 was similarly one-sided in the town's favour and there it was easy to see how the huge alliance formed. I (Haibara) got confirmed as a child by the lovers during N1, and stumbled upon the three DBs on D1. The rest was a cakewalk. In this case I don't see it. If anything, it puzzles me more after reading your post.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking. The chance of a town/town pair is higher than for one involving a BO. It might be slightly favorable over random lynching because there are a few town roles that can't be lovers. But for that you would have to know which of the 4 ppl you had chosen are lovers in the first place.

It looks like there was quite a lot of luck involved - don't get me wrong, you finding out players who are BO just by the way they answer to your PMs is great. Imagine what would have happened if the day 1 lynch would have ended in killing town lovers. From that point it would have been much harder to trust you (or anyone who voted with you)...

Lol so does this mean if I got the Town/Town lovers like I wanted, the game would be completely different?

Oi!

I am not horrible at staying hidden, I do it all the time....it's why I never talk to people, horrible liar yes, but I can stay hidden better than the next person....I've done it every round BUT this one (and my first one, but I digress) because I was stupid. It was still fun though.

Okay, okay. Sorry Lynz.

@pofa: no problem. Still sorry for making you try to be Anokata when you hate it so. But you really did do a great job even without considering all the stuff you were going through irl.

@KL: I'll post your will if you want, although I thought that not dying in Mafia is a good thing

@Gio: There are some roles which can't be BFFs, or would be horrible if they were BFFs (eg. DBs can't, Matsumoto would be fairly useless for Sonoko, Agasa I was hesitant to allow 2 Bow Ties and 2 watches in the game, etc) but I did think that it could potentially be a problem similar to the lovers one we had last round where once someone proves either Sonoko or her BFF, they're both confirmed town.

[Jd-]

What I meant was: As the lovers DIDN'T get lynched, knowing they were lovers did not prove you were Yumi as all the BO knew they were lovers and knew that they wouldn't die from being lynched.  and since you prevented them from dying, it never really got confirmed that they actually were lovers.

Knowing they were lovers didn't prove me as Yumi, of course not--if you'll realize, I mentioned several, several, several times that I had intended to kill them. Not killing them was not part of the primary plan, but when they didn't die, I already had a backup plan in place (though, it did get confirmed that they were lovers because Lynz admitted it and Parkur was acting about as fishy as one ever could in regards to it). I offered to save the lovers (still assuming they were Borg/town, because they outright claimed to be so), and if I hadn't, the town's next move would have been to lynch them on Day 2 anyway. At that point, I would have then revealed that I was Yumi. Several members of the town knew about us unmasking Lynz as Borg because she had admitted it, and since I had mentioned the possibilities of lovers so prominently and really pushed for it, they didn't have much trouble believing me later.

Naturally, if I had known they were Borg/Borg, I would have had them re-lynched in a heartbeat, and that would've proven I was about as town as one could be, even without having mentioned I was Yumi.

Your math makes the tremendous mistake that it assumes an even number of BO and town. The probability of the lovers being both town is actually (17/23)²=54,63%.

If that's the calculation that you want to make, I'll gladly concede it to be a fair one. For me, the 66% comes from there only being three possible outcomes from the lovers being successfully lynched if they are all equal commodities. They aren't equal if you factor in how to get to that point (which would be your point, no doubt) but to me that didn't matter since I had planned to kill the lovers whether they were Black Org or not. Somehow, I turned out to be right with my targeting anyway. Everyone knows math is the bane of my existence, and yet the game worked out very much so in our favor... Maybe I should reconsider the entire subject!

My whole problem is, that I don't understand why so many people seem to hab trusted you before Eve got lynched. As lynz got to live, this did not really confirm anything, and having a BO lover arrested instead of lynched makes no sense for a townie, even if you know another BO to lynch already. Had I been town, I probably would have been more wary, not more cooperative. Round 14 was similarly one-sided in the town's favour and there it was easy to see how the huge alliance formed. I (Haibara) got confirmed as a child by the lovers during N1, and stumbled upon the three DBs on D1. The rest was a cakewalk. In this case I don't see it. If anything, it puzzles me more after reading your post.

Keep in mind that no one outside of the Black Org knew that they were Borg/Borg lovers. I had tried to save what I presumed were Borg/Town lovers, which they "confirmed", because I wanted the help of the town part of their relationship to help win the game. Let me help you guys get an idea of what happened here:

xpon and Yuriko teamed up to prove Aly on Night 1. They both were extremely willing to say, over and over, that Aly had been completely confirmed as town. If they were Black Org, that was a very, very dangerous thing to do. It didn't mean any of them were town, but it started to plant the seeds that we needed. I remembered everything both of them had said, and remember that Yuriko had stolen from Aly on Night 1.

That same night, you lot stole from PT, and PT told me she was in danger of being APTX'd. Unless the Borg had hatched a very, very elaborate scheme, Tears had to be town if Yuriko were telling the truth (and she was). After speaking with Yuriko, I felt content that she was indeed town--especially when xpon vouched for both her and Aly. An extremely intricate web of lies was building for what seemed like a very small payoff if any of them had been Black Org, so after speaking with each of them independently, I felt content that they were, in fact, town (though I held out on Aly for some time, just to be safe). No one had lied or said anything that I found suspicious, so I believed them. You could say, "Yeah, but they coulda been lyin'!"--yet, they weren't. Read my response to Schillok below for more information on that.

Beyond that, Kirbers was Kir and his betrayal was Vodka tricking someone. This turned out to be quite a blessing, because I was the only one tricked that night given that Meme was inactive. He seemed content to believe that I was tricked by the Borg and he and I allied from then on.

After Yuriko trusted the rest of us, we were introduced to Giogio (someone that I would say is a really great player already!), her Sonoko. Now, unless the Borg were really willing to lose two members in one go, they were going to be legitimate BFFs. Having Kid and Sonoko together was fantastic, because we could then keep track of any and all steals.

So, by the end of Day 1, we had Jd-, Tears, xpon, Yuriko, Giogio, Aly, and Kirbers all on the same page. Meme and Kiwi seemed very town to me as well after hearing of their roles and their situations, and thankfully I learned from them that pofa had learned both of their roles (information that would become vital later on). Paix seemed very town as well, as did vittor, and BK201 began to prove herself by detaining Tears as requested. Only one Borg member was going to be able to detain, so we kept things going and stayed on the lookout.

As you can see, it didn't take long to get the town together.

Oh, and about the end of the game: What most of you didn't realize is that, with Kid being part of our alliance, everyone you were stealing from was being confirmed as town simply because we actively made it a point not to say anything about it.

It looks like there was quite a lot of luck involved - don't get me wrong, you finding out players who are BO just by the way they answer to your PMs is great. Imagine what would have happened if the day 1 lynch would have ended in killing town lovers. From that point it would have been much harder to trust you (or anyone who voted with you)...

As I've mentioned before, I don't play the way most people play, by relying purely on actions, etc. I'm looking for patterns of compliance and denial and seeing what they are willing to say, but, more importantly, what they aren't willing to say. I rely on those patterns both in this version of mafia and the mini variety. Do notice that I never falsely accused anyone here or had any false lynches--that's very important to me, because I'm very much so against random lynches (won't go into it too much given that we've discussed it too much over the mini version).

Even if the lovers had died on Day 1 (which I was more than OK with if that's how it had to be), I would have moved ahead. It certainly wouldn't have been easy, you're right, but that's also why I made sure to speak individually with all four of them. Lynz was so Borg that xpon also came to suspect her independently, so I was feeling quite confident we had located a Black Org member right then and there.

It may sound crazy, but I've talked myself out of worse situations in mafia (than the one I would've found myself in should I have lynched town/town lovers). Given that, in mini, I'm targeted for something on Night 1 almost every game, I've had to spend a lot of time talking my way out of some really damning scenarios. And that's with only 10 minutes to do so. Here, we would've had nearly two full days to do it. I would've loved that kind of time for all those instances in mini.

[KangarooGirl]

I think what everyone's having trouble with is that you were fully willing to have lovers lynched even though they were all town. It's just not how we usually play as we've always tried to save as many townies as possible. Because anything else, feels like we're helping the BO do their job. I understand it was part of your game plan, doesn't mean I agree with it.

[Abs.]

The game would have been so much more... interesting... if I hadn't died on N1

[Jd-]

I think what everyone's having trouble with is that you were fully willing to have lovers lynched even though they were all town. It's just not how we usually play as we've always tried to save as many townies as possible. Because anything else, feels like we're helping the BO do their job. I understand it was part of your game plan, doesn't mean I agree with it.

I'm an unorthodox player anyway (you of all people know that by now, given how many mini rounds we've played together), so expecting people to agree with me on about anything would only seem to make me more normal. My methods in virtually everything are never in compliance with the norm--as most can attest, I'm fairly unusual in general. That's why I don't mind being on my own in such matters, so don't worry too much.

Of course, there are also other details of this round that may shine a little light where it's cold, but I won't be going into those.

The game would have been so much more... interesting... if I hadn't died on N1

You can lynch me Day 1 next time, Abbles!

[Kleene Onigiri]

Hmmm~ Actually I'm confused now D:

You said you wanted to kill off the lovers for sure, especially since 2 out of 3 possible cases (not 66% ) you kill at least 1 BO.

But, once you got to know that lynz is BO and Parkur is town (tho he was BO) you wanted to save them? D:
Or was that because Lynz was in jail then? :V

[PT]

The game would have been so much more... interesting... if I hadn't died on N1

Considering my whole reason for teaming up with Jd- was based on you dying on N1?

My thoughts process: I didn't know if the was town or not and didn't really trust him until a couple of phases after I said I did, but I figured he's either

1) Town and a powerful ally to have in my revenge
2) BO and likely to kill me soon

Either way, I was fine with it.

[Jd-]

But, once you got to know that lynz is BO and Parkur is town (tho he was BO) you wanted to save them? D:
Or was that because Lynz was in jail then? :V

Both of those questions are answered in... MegaPost!

[KainTheVampire]

Note 2: Parkur eats Kain in the end because he's mean and hungry like that.

D:
*finally remembered to read*

[Abs.]

May I add...! I do believe Aly's will was QUITE epic! Major thumbs up!