Mafia Round 15 - The Devil's playground - BO wins!

[Detective Tommy]

Okay but wait didn't Kleene want to be lynched?

So why don't we lynch Kleene and if she is Akai (I think she said she was Akai) she will take out Edogawa with her (and it would be useless for the BO to APTX her)

Otherwise the BO will APTX her anyway

And if she is Gin, \o/

Kleene's ability is slander... and we already know her role for a fact. Just waiting for police to arrest her.
Which is taking too long.

If Edogawa did kill PT, which I think he did, I think he's Akemi.
Which means he might steal again tonight, and get closer to someone's role = another APTX.

[Akonyl]

There's probably 8 or so BOs, so the chance that you choose the one that killed PT on night 1 randomly, knowing every BO, is ~1/8.

Then, that's further reduced by the fact that the BO would actually have to vote for kleene for you to suspect them. Then, you'd have to choose the correct BO out of those people that voted kleene.

So even before those further reductions, it's just a 12.5% chance, which is pretty low. That alone might've been believed, as would the Gin thing, but together? Ehhhhhhh.

There is probably 8 BO, correct. 9 would be way too easy for the BO.
Two of the BO were already found out. So it would be a 1/6 chance of finding them, NOT 1/8.

It was reduced even more because he suspected those that lynched WITH Kleene.
This includes: Kleene (5): Commi, shin_ichi, Kleene, Yuriko, Eric

Kleene, Yuriko were out. This made it a 1/3 chance that we would actually find BO. Not PT's killer, but BO.

no, the chance is still 1/8, because you have no way of knowing if kleene or yuriko killed PT. The chance of any one BO killing PT on night 1 remains 1/8.

And it doesn't matter if you would just "find BO", because if the chance to find BO is 1/3, then combined with the chance of that one BO killing PT, it's 1/24. It's still a very low chance.

But, as Abs is saying, I don't see why we're switching targets, not lynching kleene, etc. Why hasn't she been arrested either? It seems like everyone's just dancing around her.

[Detective Tommy]

no, the chance is still 1/8, because you have no way of knowing if kleene or yuriko killed PT. The chance of any one BO killing PT on night 1 remains 1/8.

And it doesn't matter if you would just "find BO", because if the chance to find BO is 1/3, then combined with the chance of that one BO killing PT, it's 1/24. It's still a very low chance.

But, as Abs is saying, I don't see why we're switching targets, not lynching kleene, etc. Why hasn't she been arrested either? It seems like everyone's just dancing around her.

Oh right, cause we don't know if they didn't kill. I was thinking about being BO, not killing.

Kleene's ability is slander... and we already know her role for a fact. Just waiting for police to arrest her.
Which is taking too long.

If Edogawa did kill PT, which I think he did, I think he's Akemi.
Which means he might steal again tonight, and get closer to someone's role = another APTX.

[Schillok]

Anyway, I had planned to lynch xpon today so now that he's dead who are we lynching?

I'm lynching Edogawa.
And my alliance will too. If he is indeed BO, anyone voting with him will be BO suspect next.

Someone has already asked me to identify them.

I'll eventually die soon since my alliance is growing too big.
Once that's done, you guys will hopefully listen to what I said. Unless Kleene/Edogawa are already arrested/lynched, then I'll be of no use and my death will be fine. My partners can still continue the search.

Uhh... you are threatening everyone? "Follow my order or you are BO!"
You have an alliance voting with you? But no one talking open to support you?
Threats instead of arguments/profs.


Seriously, the more I listen to what you say, the less convinced I become that you are on our side.
Fortunately there is still a lot of time left before voting. I am open and grateful for any arguments/clues that will be posted until then.

[Akonyl]

Oh right, cause we don't know if they didn't kill. I was thinking about being BO, not killing.

if this was just "this person's BO", I wouldn't be so surprised, ebcause the BO population's usually around 1/3 anyway. But getting a past killing on a special investigation, with no actual evidence to back it up? Yeah, sorry, that's weird to me.

[Detective Tommy]

Anyway, I had planned to lynch xpon today so now that he's dead who are we lynching?

I'm lynching Edogawa.
And my alliance will too. If he is indeed BO, anyone voting with him will be BO suspect next.

Someone has already asked me to identify them.

I'll eventually die soon since my alliance is growing too big.
Once that's done, you guys will hopefully listen to what I said. Unless Kleene/Edogawa are already arrested/lynched, then I'll be of no use and my death will be fine. My partners can still continue the search.

Uhh... you are threatening everyone? "Follow my order or you are BO!"
You have an alliance voting with you? But no one talking open to support you?
Threats instead of arguments/profs.


Seriously, the more I listen to what you say, the less convinced I become that you are on our side.
Fortunately there is still a lot of time left before voting. I am open and grateful for any arguments/clues that will be posted until then.

... /headdesk.
WHO WILL BACK ME UP? Everyone will be at risk of getting APTX.
My DB partner? The special investigator?

It wasn't a threat. It was a statement that anyone who lynches with Edogawa IF WE FIND HIM AS BO, will be suspected as BO.

[Detective Tommy]

Oh right, cause we don't know if they didn't kill. I was thinking about being BO, not killing.

if this was just "this person's BO", I wouldn't be so surprised, ebcause the BO population's usually around 1/3 anyway. But getting a past killing on a special investigation, with no actual evidence to back it up? Yeah, sorry, that's weird to me.

I don't find it suspicious. Does nobody else remember all the lucky things that happened in past mafia rounds? Just randomly?

I'm still lynching Edogawa.

[Abs.]

WE DON'T EVEN KNOW IF THERE IS AN AKEMI!

Remember who died?  It was 1412!  A THIEF!

[Detective Tommy]

WE DON'T KNOW THERE ISN'T.
The murderer who killed Haibara cried. I can't think of anyone who would cry except AKEMI.

[Shin101]

WE DON'T KNOW THERE ISN'T.
The murderer who killed Haibara cried. I can't think of anyone who would cry except AKEMI.

Gin?

[Detective Tommy]

WE DON'T KNOW THERE ISN'T.
The murderer who killed Haibara cried. I can't think of anyone who would cry except AKEMI.

Gin?

Why would Gin cry? In the anime, he hates Haibara and sees her as a traitor.
I would imagine him grinning.

[Eve]

well....... did anyone get anything stolen? If KID died, would his actions go through still?

[Shin101]

well....... did anyone get anything stolen? If KID died, would his actions go through still?

I got stolen from D:

[Edogawa4869]

WE DON'T KNOW THERE ISN'T.
The murderer who killed Haibara cried. I can't think of anyone who would cry except AKEMI.

Gin?

Gin isn't the type who would cry...  :-\ Besides, earlier, you said that you also thought that the tears may have had nothing to do with the character at all!  You said that Yuri-chan did it!

[Detective Tommy]

well....... did anyone get anything stolen? If KID died, would his actions go through still?

Not sure if Kain does it the same way, but Callid said it does.
So I'm not sure...