I can see you first point. If Xpon is gone and really Megure, then nomemory will be arrested. And we won't be able to prevent that. On the other hand, maybe it will turn out useful at some point? I mean, either he is Vermouth (= arresting was a good choice), or he was KID (= arresting was bad... on the other hand the BO won't be able to kill him while he is in prison. And if we find the real Vermouth we know for sure we can trust him. Or have Eri get him out of prison when necessary.)Dus wrote: The problem is: Everyone but xpon agrees that it would be best to wait and check whether nomemory is Vermouth or Kid. Xpon went to bed, so it's quite likely he has already sent in his arrest. So there's little we can do about that. Even if he's lynched, nomemory is in jail. Can the DB identify someone who's in jail?
I have to say, my vote goes to xpon. It would of course be a loss if he's Megure. But frankly, he's the townie we'll miss the least. The BO can get rid of him fairly easily and he hasn't been very co-operative either. His will on the other hand, might help verify the identities of a few people I'm still not sure about.
If nomemory is disguised as Akai (as xpon claims), then she'll kill a townie with her. Probably xpon anyway. So, unless some very solid evidence against some other player turns up, gambitting xpon is our best bet.
Right now, I would say Xpon is more dangerous for the BO. If he really is Megure and survives the night then he likely will do another house-search next night. The BO won't risk that, so they HAVE to kill him now. (Or face the risk that he will either arrest one of them or confirm one player as town).
No, I think lynching him would be bad. I think it would be much smarter to vote for a real BO (if someone with a lead still turns up), or vote for nomemory who will be arrested before being lynched. Which, to my understanding, would end the day again without lynching someone, giving us enough time next night to find the next suspect.
The more I think about it, the worse lynching Xpon seems to me. I suggest we should vote for someone else. I know, the BO will try to get him lynched if possible (and if he is town), there is no need of us to help them with it. If they want to lynch him, we should force them to vote for him themselves, thus revealing themselves. The more townies vote against Xpon the easier the BO will be able to blend in.
No, gambiting xpon is bad I think. A gambit is only a gambit if you gain an advantage by sacrificing the pawn. I don't see how sacrificing Xpon gives us any advantage. And a gambit without an advantage is no gambit, it is simply a mistake.
@Xpon: Please don't release information on anyone anymore. Except if you are sure that the person is BO.
