Chekhov's theories about the plot

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Sharon rip of her police officer disguise in New-York, mean that face of Sharon there is her real face, which look pretty old IMO. The effect of her non ageing have not yet take place by then?

I think in that case there was some stage makeup on underneath rather than a full mask. Stage makeup is not so messed up when you put a mask on top, because stage makeup is designed to take smudging and moistness. The stage makeup is used to add faint dark patches and little lines around the eyes and corner of the nose and such to look like wrinkles, for the age and type of face Sharon is aiming for (50-55 but actresses tend to look less than their real age!), it isn't very heavy. I think though Vermouth needed to kill Sharon soon because Sharon was going to start looking too old to manage with stage makeup anymore.

While it is easy with stage makeup to look older, it is much much harder to for a 50-55 year old to look whatever age Vermouth looks like in the bar 25-30 or so lets say, and it requires more makeup too. That is why it is possible to make the deduction that Vermouth's bar face is the unmodified one, which is proven by Shuu after Jodie points out Vermouth doesn't age.

[Female Apprentice]

Wow, I'm finally trough. And I'm really impressed 

But I still have got a question: Why did Vermouth disguise as a silver-haired Series Killer anyway? Maybe you can help me out whith this

And there still are some things uncleared, if I may write them here. Just to gather
1. Like someone said before, is there a reason for Shiho to have visited the island with the immortal-mermaid-thing ... (File 279 - 283)
2. What is said on the MCs Ai has received? The ones from her mother ... (File 423 - 425)
3. How did her parents die anyway? It's just said they died in an accident. Why does this sound not right to me?
3. What did Akemi write into her last SMS to Shuichi?

Spoiler:

It could be something like "Take care of my siter." This is confirmed if you believe in the Akai=Okiya Theorie and take a look at the latest files

Let's see ... I'll add the list if I think of more 

[unclesporkums]

But I still have got a question: Why did Vermouth disguise as a silver-haired Series Killer anyway? Maybe you can help me out whith this

I think I can answer this one. I believe that she wanted to lure Akai out and kill him per the Boss' orders, but apparently, he could shoot quicker than she.

[Female Apprentice]

But I still have got a question: Why did Vermouth disguise as a silver-haired Series Killer anyway? Maybe you can help me out whith this

I think I can answer this one. I believe that she wanted to lure Akai out and kill him per the Boss' orders, but apparently, he could shoot quicker than she.

Ah, that would be a good explanation
Thank you

[unclesporkums]

You're quite welcome!

[Female Apprentice]

I've got another question! Well, it's more like a finding I guess ...
Vermouth promised to Shinichi not to harm Ai, didn't she?
Then it would make sense that Bourbon really isn't appointed to find (and kill) Shiho/Sherry since Vermouth gave orders to him via mobile phone. (She said that he/she'd be doing a good job and talked about some promise he/she gave to her)

Okay, maybe not the smartest finding  , but it would support Chekhov's theorie about Bourbon's aims to find Shuichi ... 

[User 4869]

Vermouth probably have to meet Bourbon face to face to help him put on the disguise as Scar Akai. There are no telling Bourbon receive order from Vermouth via mobile phone or directly, or he just receive it from anokata via mobile phone.

Conan himself does not entirely trust Vermouth's word about letting Ai go. Conan comment it in the case with teitan highschool ghost I think.

Chekhov speculate that Bourbon's order in indeed not to find and kill Sherry, but to deal with Akai.

[rrizqiw]

so Chek what do you think about recent development?

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

so Chek what do you think about recent development?

Couldn't post a thing yesterday because of the lag party. I have no major deduction changes.

Subaru already knew about Conan being Shinichi from the paper airplane case and finally got hard proof this time around so no changes there. Teasing Conan openly about it to basically let on that he knew was a little surprising but changes nothing. I am pretty sure Sera knows Conan's ID about now. Ran had a moment of noticing how close Conan and Shinichi seem which bodes well for the Ran's suspicion arc.

Sera's crying started when she she watched Ran putting a bandaid on Conan. I have a feeling that it caused a recollection of something very similar that happened between her and Akai when they were younger and watching Ran and Conan triggered the memory. I am not sure what Sera plans to do now after becoming suspicious of Subaru, but since she has something to do, I think it is likely a reaction to what she learned about Okiya or Conan.

As for who the lady in the house is, my guesses are Yukiko, Fusae Campbell (See Chek's theories for why), and Kir in that descending order. Yukiko would be helping Akai with the disguise, Fusae would be a contact and maybe disguise help, and Kir would be info passing but less likely because she might find it hard to get out and about while being suspected.

Anything else you want addressed? I really didn't look over the files all that well so it's superficial stuff for now.

[mangaluva]

I'd like to know what you think of the possibility of two Okiyas. Despite hiding his neck from Ai earlier, the Okiya that Sera sees in the bathroom seems to have nothing wrong with his neck; he's also brushing his teeth with his right hand and doesn't actually speak to them, just mumbles around his toothbrush. Any thoughts?

[rrizqiw]

well i can assume that what Okiya want to hide is actually a pendant.

thought Yukiko helping Subaru in disguise maybe bit unreal.

assuming Okiya is Akai and Bourbon at same time. then the lady in house can easily be Vermouth or Kir.

[User 4869]

Will Conan enlist his mother for Akai disguise. What's he going to tell Akai. "Shinichi-niichan's Mum can help you disguise?"

[S.Vineyard]

I'd like to know what you think of the possibility of two Okiyas. Despite hiding his neck from Ai earlier, the Okiya that Sera sees in the bathroom seems to have nothing wrong with his neck; he's also brushing his teeth with his right hand and doesn't actually speak to them, just mumbles around his toothbrush. Any thoughts?

Imo. he just wanted to delude the girls.
He showed his neck on purpose, because he heard Sonoko talking about it.
He used his right hand most likely to fool Sera about his handiness.

Yukiko: Not really necessary, since the disguise is not to elaborated at all.
Fusae: If your theory is correct, she is the most likely candidate.
Kir: Unlikely, since the BO is watching her steps.

Anything else you want addressed?

Well, I could be reading to much into it, but Ran talking to Conan in 814 (page 12) reminded me a bit about a certain scene in file 229 (also page 12), during the grey planer case. (The "Don't scare me" line).

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

I'd like to know what you think of the possibility of two Okiyas. Despite hiding his neck from Ai earlier, the Okiya that Sera sees in the bathroom seems to have nothing wrong with his neck; he's also brushing his teeth with his right hand and doesn't actually speak to them, just mumbles around his toothbrush. Any thoughts?

DCTP ate my post so I am too lazy to retype it all.
The Okiya not in the bathroom later had exclusive knowledge of the Kinichi conversation from paper airplane case and deductive abilities that are characteristic to him. He also kept up the right handed act after the bathroom.

Also Sera and the girls coming over was unexpected and it would not be easy for a woman to disguise as Okiya quickly because they will need a mask. The prep time is less than or equal to the amount of time it takes the DB to clean the classroom. It's possible if the disguiser was prepared to disguise as Okiya ahead of time for some other reason. Vermouth might manage quickly but she isn't careless enough to leave traces around. Yukiko takes longer but is more careless. You might be able to remove the mask requirement if the person being disguised was another man (Yuusaku, Billy) in which case it's just a wig and glasses slap job.
Some people mentioned Okiya had no Adam's apple, but Gosho doesn't always draw his young characters with Adam's apples. Takagi often isn't drawn with one. It could be a clue, but it would be unfair because Gosho isn't consistent elsewhere.

It seems the problem is what is around Okiya's neck. If it is something removable, like a necklace, there is no problem. Agasa's voice changers have required the user to hold it near their mouth, so unless Agasa made a mission impossible type neck slap-on voice changer, I don't think that is it. If it is a mark or some sort, there is the possibility Okiya was warned by Conan that the girls wanted to come over and makeup covered it guessing they might force themselves in anyway if Sera had any feelings about the matter.

TLDR: Possible for Okiya in bathroom to be a disguise but the logistics are rough if a woman is doing it and require some unexplained motivations. Later Okiya not in the bathroom is the real deal for sure.

Well, I could be reading to much into it, but Ran talking to Conan in 814 (page 12) reminded me a bit about a certain scene in file 229 (also page 12), during the grey planer case. (The "Don't scare me" line).

Ran has been given a lot of clues about Conan being Shinichi over this arc which suggests the climax will involve a Ran's suspicion element.

[S.Vineyard]

Ran has been given a lot of clues about Conan being Shinichi over this arc which suggests the climax will involve a Ran's suspicion element.

Plus, it is quite likely we will have a case featuring Conan turning back into Shinichi in the near future, since Gosho done this always during the last 5 years in the File X40+ segment.