Chekhov's theories about the plot

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Suutashi » September 27th, 2011, 11:28 pm

sstimson wrote:Found it Chapter 242 page 9

Again Ab might be needed to know what that line really says

But M A N G A R E A D E R . N E T has it as

"You don't seem to remember me, I was a friend of your Parents when you were Young"

Kor wrote: No B.O. member as well can tell us if Ai has amnesia since they wouldn't know that either.


And yet, that is just what I found. That above line is exactly that.

And now there are two places

Not sure about Kir and not remembering Pisco.

Stay tuned sure to find more examples.


Just because someone doesn't remember something or someone doesn't mean they have amnesia. Also, if Haibara/Sherry did have amnesia as a result of her sister's death then she would have no memory of her sister's death and may also have no memory of anything that's connected to her sister's death. At this point you're just twisting facts to fit your theory when what you should really be twisting your theory to fit the current facts.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby makoto » September 27th, 2011, 11:35 pm

Ai 's parent may not be dead as she said they(the bo)told her that they died in a car accident
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Abs. » September 28th, 2011, 12:33 am

sstimson wrote:Found it Chapter 242 page 9

Again Ab might be needed to know what that line really says

But M A N G A R E A D E R . N E T has it as

"You don't seem to remember me, I was a friend of your Parents when you were Young"


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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » September 28th, 2011, 12:53 am

Abs. wrote:The point for Sherry saying that she doesn't know Kir would be to establish that the whole Kir thing happened after Sherry escaped. If a lab scientist has heard about some random snipers, she would definitely have heard about the member who was undercover as a popular television announcer.

Abs. wrote:I am talking about Kir "killing" her father.
It was four years ago when Ethan Hondou sacrificed his life to protect his daughter Hondou Hidemi's cover after she made a mistake. (595p10) Kir rose to codename after that, although it may have taken some time and she may still be fairly new because she is still being subjected to protocol checks by Gin four years later at the Domon assassination. I think Shiho doesn't know about Kir because Kir is still fairly new and it takes time for info about new members in "far" departments to reach the internal science division. Chianti and Korn are obviously not new because they are given relative autonomy compared to Kir. It's more likely she would have heard of them them, even more so if Akemi as part of robbery prep had to work with the operations division.

Abs. wrote:Re: BO
Kir's not an executive member.
Executive members seemingly are just Gin and Vermouth, who never really know what each other is doing. The BO does not have "meetings," otherwise Gin for one would kill everyone for wasting his time in them. Kir got a codename because she "killed a traitor under extraordinary circumstances," and that was only recently (see above).
Bourbon might be a trusted family member of an existing member (e.g. the Boss' son/daughter) thus explaining both "new member" and "wtf he/she has a codename already!?" Or might be nonexistent (also explaining both points but making it obvious it's a lie)
Pisco is probably also an executive member based on the way he talked to Gin right before he was killed. Before someone points out that it would be one executive member ordering another around, Gin has ordered Vermouth around for missions, so it's not unexpected.





sstimson wrote:@ Chek

In your chart I would made two suggestions.

First Vermount is closer to the boss then you have her. She has more then once delievered a message from to boss to Gin about a go ahead. It seems to me that since Vermount is more in contact with the boss then Gin. that maybe they are closer in rank.

Second Namabuchi should have a line before him, as I believe he does not have a code name and may just take orders from the other three.
Those divisions are from the official Conan Drill guide. I can't move Vermouth because that's where she was officially listed. The only thing I did was add ranks by the names and operatives that appeared after the guide was introduced in their most likely positions.

sstimson wrote:Next your statement
You got several facts wrong here. First Kir only claimed to have clonked Camel over the head. Second the Black Org never saw Camel's face (I discussed this somewhere else once before and included pictures), hence they don't know that he came back because they didn't know it was him in the exploding van to begin with.


If she had clonked him over the head, he could not have gotten out of the van in time to avoid being killed by the bomb that went off 10 to 20 seconds later.

It's generally a good idea to always check your sources first.


sstimson wrote:Also Gin in 425 to Vermouth statement 'I have sources everywhere", should include the FBI.
Prove it. Until you have concrete proof this is nothing but insubstantial fluff and can't be used to support a theory. There is a lot of evidence Gin doesn't have an FBI informant. Gin would have known about the fake death plan and Conan because Conan and Akai explained it to the rest of the FBI afterward. Also Gin wouldn't have needed to figure out which room was Kir's in the hospital, that she was in a hospital in the first place, and which van she was in if Gin had an informant. Gin has demonstrated zero knowledge of FBI affairs beyond what he can guess from observation and experience.

sstimson wrote:The point becomes not if the BO saw camel's face, but if they could learn who was driving Kir. I believe Gin could have easily learned that detail. The way Gin is about things and I sure he investigated Kir's return very thoroughly,he must know the truth which is that the driver was not killed and Kir is lying about killing him (by blowing him up)
He never saw Camel's face because the windows were tinted and Camel's face was never turned toward the BO while the door was open. Gin doesn't have an informant. He doesn't know.

sstimson wrote:Now with the fact Kir lied about killing Akai (after all his "ghost" showed up twice). Even if if is not him but his double it still cast doubt on her statements.
If scar Akai is fake, obviously that doesn't mean Kir lied about killing Akai. This is especially the case if scar Akai is Bourbon in disguise, meaning there is a perfectly legit reason (even if Gin thinks its Bourbon's stupid obsession) for a fake Akai to be wandering around and Kir can be telling the honest truth.

sstimson wrote:And Gin learning the truth about Kir's return. He must know why she is there (she is a spy).
He would have killed her if he knew for sure.

sstimson wrote:So again concerning the way the BO works, why do they allow this distrustworthy member to exist unless it is to carry misinformation back to the people she spies for.
Because they still think Kir may be telling the truth and that she can still be useful.

sstimson wrote:Also in 425 I noticed that the feed for Kir's camera is not live, and that might help your Akai theory if they had time to change it. Again, the way BO works, someone unseen should have been watching the event LIVE.
It's obviously live. Remember Gin gave orders to Kir in the middle of it, and then she responded to them? You can't do that if it's not live, and you can't predict when and what orders Gin will give and film it in advance.

Also in general, the amnesia theory is contrived. Haibara doesn't behave like she has amnesia; she never acts like there is something she ought to remember, she never remembers something later and realizes she forgot it. If really had traumatic memory loss why did she not forget the the most traumatic things like her sister's death, or Gin and whatever he did to her, or Vermouth? The simplest explanation is that she didn't know Kir.

Twist theories to suit fact, not facts to suit theories. Unless there is evidence to the contrary, generally assume things are the way they are said they are. I always stick by those two principles when building a theory, and it's a very successful strategy based on past arcs and case solving.
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on September 28th, 2011, 1:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby makoto » September 28th, 2011, 1:04 am

don't you think in black versus red clash that when gin suspect talk to kir that she's a bit too nervous i mean when someone act like this is by fear to reveale something like akai's plan and fake death if she really have killed him then she would be like "thinkk whatever you want gin but i DID kill him" with full confidence
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » September 28th, 2011, 1:13 am

makoto wrote:don't you think in black versus red clash that when gin suspect talk to kir that she's a bit too nervous i mean when someone act like this is by fear to reveale something like akai's plan and fake death if she really have killed him then she would be like "thinkk whatever you want gin but i DID kill him" with full confidence
I thought Kir was more or less smooth and confident on the manga (she seemed less smooth in the anime to me), only acting a little perturbed in the beginning, but then again there was a gun in her face which Gin has to take into account when reading her reaction.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby makoto » September 28th, 2011, 1:36 am

i don't remember the anime as i never watched it exept that episode long sgo
but gun or not if she really did it she won't be as nervous as GIN can,t kill any bo members without the boss order to do it and kir does know it as well i guess
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Suutashi » September 28th, 2011, 1:51 am

I've been wondering about the whole "fingerprint planting" problem with the whole debate on Chris Vineyard and Sharon Vineyard being the same person/are separate people. I believe the fingerprint planting idea has already been proved as impossible in the Chris Vineyard and Sharon Vineyard are separate people argument. What I'm wondering is this: is it at all possible that a person's fingerprint after it has been entered as evidence could be altered or replaced?
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » September 28th, 2011, 1:58 am

Suutashi wrote:I've been wondering about the whole "fingerprint planting" problem with the whole debate on Chris Vineyard and Sharon Vineyard being the same person/are separate people. I believe the fingerprint planting idea has already been proved as impossible in the Chris Vineyard and Sharon Vineyard are separate people argument. What I'm wondering is this: is it at all possible that a person's fingerprint after it has been entered as evidence could be altered or replaced?
Sure, if Vermouth had access to the records and the FBI didn't compare two samples directly at once. One thing to keep in mind is that Vermouth didn't know about Jodie's glasses fingerprint so that one is guaranteed to belong to the person from 20 years ago (at least Sharon). Jodie matched both Sharon's and Chris's to that fingerprint, so if there was a trick, it would have to be something along the lines of the daughter using her mother's prints as her own.
I don't Jodie would use birth records for data either if they assume Vermouth forged an identity.
The other problem I forgot to mention is that Sharon/Chris didn't know she/they were being suspected of being the same person by Jodie, unless Chris somehow found out before Jodie to get prints. That would be difficult because there are a lot of sources of prints that Jodie could use that would be hard to tamper with, autographs from fans halfway the world, any kind of prop she ever used, her own car...
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on September 28th, 2011, 2:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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makoto
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby makoto » September 28th, 2011, 2:00 am

i'm looking at that file and i got all wrong i guess she's a bit nervous for a small bit and look normal for the rest
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Suutashi » September 28th, 2011, 2:29 am

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
Suutashi wrote:I've been wondering about the whole "fingerprint planting" problem with the whole debate on Chris Vineyard and Sharon Vineyard being the same person/are separate people. I believe the fingerprint planting idea has already been proved as impossible in the Chris Vineyard and Sharon Vineyard are separate people argument. What I'm wondering is this: is it at all possible that a person's fingerprint after it has been entered as evidence could be altered or replaced?
Sure, if Vermouth had access to the records and the FBI didn't compare two samples directly at once. One thing to keep in mind is that Vermouth didn't know about Jodie's glasses fingerprint so that one is guaranteed to belong to the person from 20 years ago (at least Sharon). Jodie matched both Sharon's and Chris's to that fingerprint, so if there was a trick, it would have to be something along the lines of the daughter using her mother's prints as her own.
I don't Jodie would use birth records for data either if they assume Vermouth forged an identity.
The other problem I forgot to mention is that Sharon/Chris didn't know she/they were being suspected of being the same person by Jodie, unless Chris somehow found out before Jodie to get prints. That would be difficult because there are a lot of sources of prints that Jodie could use that would be hard to tamper with, autographs from fans halfway the world, any kind of prop she ever used, her own car...
That's all I needed to hear. I only wanted to know if someone, especially someone like yourself, confirmed this idea as being at least remotely possible.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby sstimson » September 28th, 2011, 3:03 pm

If scar Akai is fake, obviously that doesn't mean Kir lied about killing Akai. This is especially the case if scar Akai is Bourbon in disguise, meaning there is a perfectly legit reason (even if Gin thinks its Bourbon's stupid obsession) for a fake Akai to be wandering around and Kir can be telling the honest truth.

And why does scar need to be fake? My current idea wold mark the real Akai to look a lot like scar. If I am right about the last second gun movement, then the real Akai would get a burn and maybe a scar where the scar one has. I know you think it is to smoke 'the real" Akai. But two things, if that were true, then why warn Jodie and why not make more appearances? After all scar would not know where Akai is and would need to make enough appearances to let Akai know scar was out there. Also that to me seem a bad way to do it. The person you are trying to smoke it out is more likely to go farther underground since they must know what scar is doing. What is wrong with a simple explanation? Scar is Akai and slowly recovering from the experience. After all scar (Akai) has appeared in very normal location of every day life, a store and a bank.

As for Gin sources that line is here (Chapter 504 page 16) . What do you think he means? Also remember Vermount while looking a Police person, just walked in to a police station and walked out with files about Mouri case's. Why wouldn't she be able to do something similar at the FBI? My point reminds and I do not need to twist facts for it. They are all kinds of ways for the BO to learn about what really happened at KIR's return. Also note that unlike Akai "death", not agents are in morning. According to Vermount, (Chapter 433 Page 11) she was able to learn a lot about FBI agents. She could easy go back looking like one and no one would know the difference. I am not at this time saying it happened, I am saying it could have happened. Need more evidence before I can say that. I will say this, if you did do this, she would likely keep the info under her hat as she seem to like and see the the other side will do. In 425 she clearly saw Conan, but said nothing yet I very sure you knew all about how Conan got there. After all she watched in 345 some of Conan's devices, the watch, and the glasses.

Also I find it interesting that while Conan and company smoked out a BO agent where KIR was, they did not do the same else where. To me that suggest either the BO got very lucky on their first try, or before the agent was placed there, they knew where KIR was, and that agent was not for finding KIR, but for watching events at the hospital and collecting intel for later use. I know you said they did not know, but what if they did? Why not look for BO agents at other hospitals. After all when the one stop reporting, the BO will know where what they seek is. If there were other BO agents in other hospitals who also disappeared, then the location becomes more unsure. Also they get possible more intel that way as the FBI has more people to question. Why did they not try to catch other BO agents else where?
Last edited by sstimson on September 28th, 2011, 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Stopwatch » September 28th, 2011, 3:22 pm

sstimson wrote:Also I find it interesting that while Conan and company smoked out a BO agent where KIR was, they did not do the same else where. To me that suggest either the BO got very lucky on their first try, or before the agent was placed there, they knew where KIR was, and that agent was not for finding KIR, but for watching events at the hospital and collecting intel for later use. I know you said they did not know, but what if they did? Why not look for BO agents at other hospitals. After all when the one stop reporting, the BO will know where what they seek is. If there were other BO agents in other hospitals who also disappeared, then the location becomes more unsure. Also they get possible more intel that way as the FBI has more people to question. Why did they not try to catch other BO agents else where?

I'm just addressing the last point here, but... to smoke out others it would still reveal that the FBI were onto them, meaning that Kir is definitely being held by them in a hospital. Also, the FBI don't have the resources to go round to all other hospitals in order to implement this, they are there illegally and only got into that hospital because of a favour James Black was owed, I seriously doubt that's the case in any other hospitals. Plus, it would take too long to reach all the nearby hospitals, the BO would realise before they could get to more than 3 or so hospitals (and even then couldn't do much when they reached them), presumably the times the agents in the hospitals had to give updates were pretty regular so they could get enough info, meaning that the FBI simply wouldn't have enough time to try to get any permissions from anyone.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby sstimson » September 28th, 2011, 3:28 pm

The Idea for other Hospitals by being like a visiting doctor and a new patient. I did not mean direct contact, but going after BO agents undercover. The FBI knows the BO is looking for Kir, and will look in hospitals, so why not stake then out to try and catch other agents?

Also notice the  Bo agent's remarks on chapter 598 page 11. The BO had a good idea where Kir was. Their Agent (BO) was confirming that and collecting intel.
Last edited by sstimson on September 28th, 2011, 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Abs. » September 28th, 2011, 3:30 pm

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
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