Bourbon's Identity: Who is Bourbon!?

[Partsu]

yeh...they are pretty darn convincing...
Though I liked my sera is bourbon theory more...too bad that file 801 destroyed that one...

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

After reading it once, but painstakingly, I agree to Blaze of Glory's theory without exception. My compliments to you—you have presented a sound argumentation which leaves nothing to be desired. I'd love to have it translated into Japanese, pay Gosho a visit, have him read it and comment on it.

What is with these old users crawling back up out of the woodwork!? *Lays down sticky paper so they can't leave again*

[Kricketier]

If we take it that Scar Akai is Bourbon, then it pretty much has to be amuro doesn't it?

The other two suspects have both been seen at the same time as scar akai.

[sstimson]

There is a new question you need to answer. Is Bourbon Bad? If not, then that open up all kinds of possibilities.

[doublemoonlight]

well according to kir he is bad... but like Gin said he likes to to things in his own way... I believe him to be some sort of male version of vermouth in terms of loyality...

[sstimson]

Yes and no. All Kir said was a new Bo agent is on the move. Now if I right and the agent she is taking about is her contact, that would make him good, not bad. Just from what KIR said, does not really tell us much. We might think that because of Bo, equals bad, but that means forgetting Vermouth (Neutral), Kir(Good) and Rye(Good). While being is the BO might mean they are bad, it is not a certain thing. And as it seems that in all thing Balance occurs, then there must be a little more good in the BO to help balance out the Bad. And while hidden at this time, on the Good side, there should be hiding an evil to balance them out as well.

[Shuusgirl]

Yes and no. All Kir said was a new Bo agent is on the move. Now if I right and the agent she is taking about is her contact, that would make him good, not bad. Just from what KIR said, does not really tell us much. We might think that because of Bo, equals bad, but that means forgetting Vermouth (Neutral), Kir(Good) and Rye(Good). While being is the BO might mean they are bad, it is not a certain thing. And as it seems that in all thing Balance occurs, then there must be a little more good in the BO to help balance out the Bad. And while hidden at this time, on the Good side, there should be hiding an evil to balance them out as well.

First of all, if her contact was good she would have just said something like "don't worry about Bourbon, he's on my side".  She wouldn't have warned that he is tricky. 
Second, BO DOES equal bad.  The organization's goals, as far as we know, are to get control, take out people they don't like, and not get caught doing any of it.  Vermouth's not a good person.  She's perfectly willing to kill to get what she wants.  The question isn't if she's good or bad, it's what is her goal.  Kir and Rye were both good, true, but they were double agents and don't really count. 
And how would another double agent keep balance?  There would be too many double agents. And the idea of balance is ridiculous, the BO don't want balance, they want the most talented, ambitious people to work for them so they can get ahead.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Meanwhile in the real who is Bourbon poll on DCTP....
Scar Akai aka Amuro Tooru               - 71 (68.9%)
Amuro Tooru who is not Scar Akai    - 14 (13.6%)
Okiya Subaru                                   - 12 (11.7%)
Masumi Sera                                    - 4 (3.9%)
Scar Akai who is not Amuro Tooru    - 2 (1.9%)
Total 103

14 votes for the joke options (Conan and Sstimson) were removed.

[unclesporkums]

Agreed, Chekhov! Numbers don't lie!

[sstimson]

Really. I thought one of the greatest lies is Polls. It is all how do you ask what. Ask a different group and get a different answer. And even sometime the fix is in polls that are suppose to be unbiased

further see [url=http://=http://www.utne.com/archives/CanNumbersLie.aspx]Can numbers lie[/url], When numbers lie, Statistics: When numbers Lie

and to end, a Mark Twain quote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

you may now recant your statement

As for the above Shuusgirl comments, A little more research is needed but I will get you a reply soon.

[Citan]

Greetings everyone. I'm new to the forum, and I figured I'd start myself off by joining the discusion of my favorite question.

Seems most people are leaning in the direction that Amuro is Bourbon. This seems to be based mostly on the assumption that "Scar Akai" is Bourbon in disguise. If true the that pretty much does condemn Amuro since both Sera and subaru have been present at the same time as "Scar Akai", and until recently I was pretty much convinced of this line of reasoning until recent events made me do some rethinking.

Do we really know who "Scar Akai" is? The most dangerous thing any detective can do is base their deductions on an unproved assumption. (Take notes here Mouri Kogoro). The truth is we don't know that "Scar Akai" is Bourbon. All we really do know is that the way certain characters have acted after seeing him that it's unlikely he's the real Akai. Whether he's Bourbon in disguise or someone else impersonating him for their own reasons is currently unknown.

So leaving off the unproved assumption that "Scar Akai" is Bourbon, we now have a drastically changed playing field for the "Who is Bourbon" game. Suddenly Amuro isn't the only option anymore. While, I do agree he's quite suspicious hacing seemingly come out of nowhere and ingratiating himself to Mouri Kogoro. He also is the only one who hasn't been seen at the same time as "Scar Akai" (Though asd I say this technically doesn't prove anything yet. Even if he is "Scar Akai" that doesn't nessicarily mean he's also Bourbon.) He really seems to be pinned as the most suspicous for that reason, and by virtue of being the most recent of the three characters introduced. Until something more substantial crops up we can't really say for sure he's Bourbon yet.

So, who do I think is Bourbon? Well to be honest I'm still not sure. There just isn't enough eveidence to make a full descision. However, i'll say I was nearly sold to the Amuro idea until the last couple chapters. I could just be overthinking what we've recently been shown, but i've been decieved too many times t take any new information lightly.

My doubts hinge around Vermouth's comment "It seems you have gained some trust for the time being". At first glance this comment could apply to any of the three, but after thinking about that comment I find myself with two questions. Not simply "Who was Vermouth talking to?", but also "Who was she talking about?" Whose trust had Bourbon gained? Conan? He doesnt seem to particularly "Trust" any of the three, save perhaps Subaru, who he's seem to have given the benefit of the doubt right form the off. However Vermouth's comment sounds more like it's this case that Bourbon has earned this trust recently, which makes it unlikely the party referred to for that trust is Conan.

Then is it perhaps Ran? The doesn't seem to particularly trust Subaru. It could be Amuro who would have earned rep with her for helping save Conan. There's also Sera who Ran seems to be starting to bond with. Though again, Vermouth made it sound like this trust was new and Ran and Sera have been "friendly" for a bit of time now.

What of Mouri Kogoro? He's had virtually no contact with Subaru, so it's doubtful he trusts him much. I suppose he trusts Sera as much as he wold any of his daughter's school friends. Though again, most of Sera's interractions have been with Ran or Conan. So that leaves Amuro, Kogoro's self-proclaimed "disciple". While i'm sure his recent actions would earn hip points with Kogoro I wouldn't say Kogoro particularly trusts him. More like tolerates him.

So who does that leave? Who else's trust would Vermouth be concerned about?  what about... Sherry's? Vermouth knows full well Haibara is Sherry. She doesn't seem to have told Bourbon this, seeing as he hasn't acted against her yet. (Though that could be what the "Promise" vermouth mentioned was about.) However, we all know Haibara doesn't trust easily. she's had no dealings with Amuro, and she barely knows Sera either. However, what about Subaru? Haibara has historically distrusted him and even downright feared him. That is until recently. When she, Subaru, and the Professor they went after the "Kidnapped" Conan together, Haibara seemed almost fine with Subaru. Could that be the "trust" Vermouth mentioned? If it is, then it really throws things out fo whack.

However, I can already hear you saying "What about the whole 'don't make that face' thing? doesn't that prove Subaru is Akai?" Well it does add to that case, but it's not proof. We know Bourbon hates Akai, and doesn't believe he's dead. (We're told he thinks he's the only one that can kill Akai.) Given his description as an expert in gathering information, it's perfectly plausable he's studied up on Akai's mannerisms and used that comment to draw a reaction form Haibara. Again, I can't prove this. I'm just supposing.

So what does my long winded post actually mean? Basically that I have two "most plausable theories". If we assume the "Scar Akai is Bourbon" scenario then it's almost positive that Amuro is Bourbon. If we assume Scar Akai is someone else, then to me Subaru becomes the most suspicious one with Amuro in second place and Sera in third. These are my two schools of thought. I can currently conclusively prove neither, but they seem the most likely to me.

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

This seems to be based mostly on the assumption that "Scar Akai" is Bourbon in disguise.

The reason most people are making assumptions is because the Scar Akai related debate on this forum has resulted in the majority in favor of Scar Akai is Bourbon. (There are still holdouts of course.) Most of the early debate when people made their decisions got worked out in the old case threads or this thread starting from page 4 or so. It's tough to read it all and follow the history.

Besides this thread there are...
Teito bank heist thread.
Red shirts case
Followup poll

....but it may just be easier to check the accumulated list of reasons Scar Akai is Bourbon.

[Citan]

I know all reasons for making the assumption that Scar Akai is Bourbon. I myself think this is highly likely. I was only pointing out that we don't know this for sure and as such shouldn't discount other possibilites because of something that we can only suppose "may" be. We should be open to the possibility that he may NOT be Bourbon, which would mean we can't eliminate either Sera or Subaru as "Bourbon Candidates". While it's very LIKELY that Scar Akai is Bourbon, and therefore LIKELY that Amuro is also Bourbon (Being the only one not seen at the same time as Scar Akai) We can't yet prove either of these things, and so I threw out some alternate ideas along the "What if we're wrong and Scar Akai is not Bourbon" path.

[sstimson]

Citan. Welcome. I am a hold out mentioned above. This is mostly because the most obvious answer should be a red herring which the writer use to fool his readers, while waiting for the right time for the reveal. And the lastest reveal part raises a question I have not seen anyone else ask. Two questions. First is Bourbon BO, or a mole like KIR? Second might he be a character to be used not as a 'bad guy' against Conan and Company, but an ally to help Conan? I believe that might be indeed quite likely and your thoughts in a the obvious might not be right way would be very welcomed.

[Citan]

Hmm... those are interesting questions. It's true we don't know much about Bourbon. Only that he's a newly activated BO member. He's obviously trying to prove Akai Shuuichi is alive, but we're not sure he's after Conan or Haibara. (At least I'm not sure that's been stated. Feel free to correct me if it has.) Even if he isn't, he is a BO member and him finding out either of their identies is bad news, as unless he shares the views of Vermouth, he would inevitably report his findings to the rest of the organization compromising Conan and Haibara. Also, the tone of the message Kir gave about him, which was urgent enough to pass to the FBI immediately even though she was under suspicion by the BO, seems to suggest she is very worried about Bourbon's presence. that's a problem for your theory because if he is a double agent he's not with the CIA or she'd know about it, nor is he with the FBI or she wouldn't have needed to tell them. They'd already know. Also, after the incident surrounding Kir's capture and their doubts about her, I doubt the BO would send in an agent they weren't 100% sure about.

So unless he's with an unknown fourth party or has infiltrated the BO on his own initiative (Which is highly unlikely), then to my mind the only conclusion can be that he's what he seems to be. A loyal BO agent. Which means he's a threat to Conan and Haibara. There is, however, the matter of the "Promise" mentioned by Vermouth. Right now there's no way to tell what the promise is, and until we do we can't be sure of Bourbon's true intentions. Though that promise almost certainly has to do with Conan and Haibara. Vermouth did promise SHE would leave Haibara alone, but I doubt  she'd comprimise herself by asking Bourbon to promise the same. If Bourbon has figured out Sherry, then Vermouth might have asked him to capture her without harming anyone else. (Specifically Conan and Ran whom she seems care about. Conan being her "Silver Bullet" and Ran unknowingly saving her life.) Though this is all totally conjecture on my part. It also hinges on what Vermouth's relationship to Bourbon is really like, and how much pull she has over him. After all, Vermouth called this a "promise" which is a personal agreement between the two of them, and not a straight up order from a higher ranking BO member. (If she is indeed higher ranking. She seems to outrank everyone except Anokata.) This suggests that the two have history enough for Vermouth to trust Bourbon's word. Makes me even more curious what the truth about Vermouth really is.

So, while I'm ruling out him being a double agent within the BO for another party, I suppose I can't toally rule out the possibility he could end up a "Friendemy" BO Agent in the same vein as Vermouth. However, given what we've seen so far, and his mission, I can't see this ending positively. He'll either expose and showdown with Akai (If he is indeed revealed to be alive) or he'll come for Haibara at some point. Either of these means a showdown with Conan, and there is no evidence of anything that will sway him to Conan's side. In fact it's more likely, given how much he hates Akai, that he'd turn that hatred on Conan for helping his bitter enemy.