New Member Here - A few theories

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shinichi1977

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by shinichi1977 »

acerola21 wrote:
shinichi1977 wrote:Aside from the very compelling case why Akai is Okiya
That's what I've been trying to argue against, though - I'm not saying that it's impossible, it's in fact likely, it's just that it's also possible and likely that Okiya =/= Akai.  And if Okiya = Akai then I'll be disappointed in Gosho for using such a similar plot for the third time.  :-\

. . . Although, why else would Gosho name Okiya, Akai, and Moroboshi Dai after Char Aznable?  And apparently Camel was named after Char Aznable's second-in-command's ship, or something . . . but then who the hell's the Glasses Man?  I thought at first that he was Akai as Okiya, but noooo, Gosho had to show that scene where Akai is calling the Glasses Man / Hat Lady (File 419 p.18) . . . and I still have no idea who the Hat Lady could be . . .
shinichi1977 wrote:Akai Shuichi had no knowledge of what happened between Vermouth and Shinichi in the forest, but he did know
Would you kindly point me to the proof?
shinichi1977 wrote:That aside we can assume it is Jodie and James
As I've pointed out, James has been known to work with Akai about a hundred chapters beforehand, so it wouldn't be strange for Gosho to draw those figures as James and Jodie instead of shadowy figures.  Besides, Haibara reacted to their presence (File 419 p.15), while she never reacted to Jodie or James - there's a good chance those figures were in the B.O. somehow.

Plus, the glasses dude's car doesn't look anything like James' or Jodie's.  It's black (File 417 p.3, Conan says he knew the car was trailing him even though his mom stopped her car in the middle of the road but the car didn't complain or anything at all, so it's safe to say that the car at the bottom left is the glasses dude's car), and if anything it looks like Sato's car (File 436 p.4), but Jodie's car isn't black (File 431 p.3), and James rents cars (File 325 p.11), and like you said most rent cars in Japan have the wheel on the right side, not the left.

And the car isn't Sato's, since Sato's car's driver's seat is on the right side (File 370 p.8), while the Glasses Man's car's driver's seat is on the left side (File 418 p.16 - see the Glasses Man's hands on the wheel?) - and yeah, I'm very sure that the driver's seat is on the left side in Glasses Man's car.  I've thought about Sato and Takagi being the Hat Lady and the Glasses Man, but neither smoke (because we've been exposed to them for over seven hundred chapters and we've never seen them smoke), and Takagi was with Conan, inside the building, when Ai saw the Glasses Man outside the building (File 418).  No way Takagi can be in two places at once.  Although, I guess that it doesn't exclude Sato from being the Hat Lady . . . but nothing points to her being the Hat Lady, either.

. . . Maybe they're really Korn and Chianti and they're actually good people, LOL!  I've excluded that possibility because we can see the face huge and up close but the facial features resembled Okiya more than Korn, but they are shadows, after all . . . but . . . hmm, I dunno.
shinichi1977 wrote:Last but not least: the party per se was not hosted by her she just included a written invitation to Mouri Kogoro and Kudo Shinichi
Okay - I couldn't exactly remember what Vermouth's relation was to the party, anyway - but my main question is, who's the Werewolf Man that you speak of?
Like I said, it's not the main mystery, why Akai is Okiya, as for reference see the extensive work of Chekhov's and Kyuu's on that subject, and as a little rant of mine, why he chose to be him after Shiho refused FBI protection. Speaking of which, that sentence you quoted exactly states (was possibly overlooked) that he had no knowledge of what happened between Shinichi and Vermouth in the forest, but did know that Shiho refused protection, and was going with the idea, that Vermouth will strike again at a later point. Gosho always uses similar plot devices not because of boredom, but rather for the fact, that it makes it easier, only the characters and roles change.

He had drawn Jodie and James vaguely on purpose, so that we are made to think, they are B.O. He purposely did not show Jodie because at a later point he revealed Vermouth killed an FBI agent, about which Jodie was dreaming, so the trick that they really aren't B.O. wouldn't have worked.

The Werewolf Man is the second character aside from Calvados to be introduced, but his face never seen, and his case was never later investigated in detail. That of course, has dramaturgy reasons. Gosho spoke through Conan when he stated no progress will be made if they don't make a move, so instead of explaining further how Vermouth had pressed that man to commit murder he played in the e-mail address of the boss, to level one up in the game.

Last but not least, along the plot device of Silver Bullet, Jekyll and Hyde was introduced to represent duality, not just in general, but as to a character who is a civil person by day and has a really dark side in the "night self"
acerola21

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by acerola21 »

shinichi1977, I hate to be argumentative, but I've repeated several times that Okiya =/= Akai is fully possible based on several little details that doesn't make sense - and I think I put up a pretty good argument on why the shadows couldn't be James and Jodie, because 1) Haibara reacted to them, and 2) they don't have a car that resembles the one driven by Glasses Man.  Even if #1 is invalid because Gosho's been using it as a plot device to fool the audience as you say, Gosho's done several mysteries based on cars, and he's really been good about keeping which character owns what car.  And people in Japan don't usually own two cars.

And like I said, the Glasses Man looks suspiciously like Okiya, and Glasses Man can't be Akai.  It's possible that even if Okiya isn't Bourbon that he's some kind of third party person who isn't Akai - I know, it's not definite, but I'm just pointing out some issues with the Akai = Okiya theory.  My issue isn't why Akai is Okiya, but how Akai could be Okiya based on some inconsistencies.  And yes, I've read Chekhov's post about why Akai = Okiya, and like I said I used to believe in the Akai = Okiya theory based on the many evidence available, but I've re-read the B.O. chapters and some things are off . . . and I hope that Gosho isn't repeating the same exact senario he did with Jodie=/=Vermouth plot, because even the Eisuke=/=Rena plot had some interesting twist to it.
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shinichi1977

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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acerola21 wrote: shinichi1977, I hate to be argumentative, but I've repeated several times that Okiya =/= Akai is fully possible based on several little details that doesn't make sense - and I think I put up a pretty good argument on why the shadows couldn't be James and Jodie, because 1) Haibara reacted to them, and 2) they don't have a car that resembles the one driven by Glasses Man.  Even if #1 is invalid because Gosho's been using it as a plot device to fool the audience as you say, Gosho's done several mysteries based on cars, and he's really been good about keeping which character owns what car.  And people in Japan don't usually own two cars.

And like I said, the Glasses Man looks suspiciously like Okiya, and Glasses Man can't be Akai.  It's possible that even if Okiya isn't Bourbon that he's some kind of third party person who isn't Akai - I know, it's not definite, but I'm just pointing out some issues with the Akai = Okiya theory.  My issue isn't why Akai is Okiya, but how Akai could be Okiya based on some inconsistencies.  And yes, I've read Chekhov's post about why Akai = Okiya, and like I said I used to believe in the Akai = Okiya theory based on the many evidence available, but I've re-read the B.O. chapters and some things are off . . . and I hope that Gosho isn't repeating the same exact senario he did with Jodie=/=Vermouth plot, because even the Eisuke=/=Rena plot had some interesting twist to it.
Deductive logic was born out of argumentation, see Tacitus' Annales for reference, so feel free to argument, that's why we're here ;)

I'm not saying you have to be convinced as much as we are, anyone can disagree, though it would be an almost infinite battle between personal opinions as far we could not keep it under civilized discourse. That's been said, those compelling pieces of evidence need to be debunked before we can exclude that Akai as Okiya.

File 419 also contains the fact, that Conan contacted Takagi to scare off anyone who was in that car, which makes it impossible, that they were agents of the organization, because no police officer was is or for an uncertain time will be involved at the slightest with the main plot.

One additional note: even the seemingly unrelated plots may contain relevant information, like for example informations on Sharon's funeral, Kogoro's case files being stolen or Akai spying on Vermouth in the restaurant were presented outside the main plot. I too am curious to learn what the twist is, and I don't if we are different or not on that subject, but the twist lies not in who Okiya is, because even if he is a third person, that would prove he appeared after Raiha Falls, but if the extensive evidence is enough that Akai is Okiya the twist lies in the complex explanation of how they pulled off the perfect murder, how much it was premeditated, how long have they had contact and in which form, who is and isn't involved, how Bourbon can act almost identical to Akai, but lacks major personal mannerisms.

I look forward to see Bourbon uncover Okiya's face for whom he is
acerola21

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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shinichi1977 wrote:Deductive logic was born out of argumentation, see Tacitus' Annales for reference, so feel free to argument, that's why we're here
Ha ha, true, true - I'm just a little miffed that everyone seems to think that Okiya is 100% Akai, rather than 80% or even 90%.  Right now I kinda tend to blow up whenever someone says that Okiya=Akai like it's absolutely certain, rather than likely to happen, because I've talked myself blue explaining that it's not 100% certain - though it might become so, at some point in the future, but not right now, at least for me.

Lol can you tell that I hate to lose? ^^;
shinichi1977 wrote:File 419 also contains the fact, that Conan contacted Takagi to scare off anyone who was in that car, which makes it impossible, that they were agents of the organization, because no police officer was is or for an uncertain time will be involved at the slightest with the main plot.
Well, I think that there's a good chance the police will play a big role in the future - Conan knows so many police officers in so many different prefectures, I can't help but think that they're going to play a big role in taking down the B.O. in the end.  It's really just one of my many crazy theories about what will happen that has no real evidence whatsoever other than a hunch, ha ha.
shinichi1977 wrote:One additional note: even the seemingly unrelated plots may contain relevant information, like for example informations on Sharon's funeral, Kogoro's case files being stolen or Akai spying on Vermouth in the restaurant were presented outside the main plot. I too am curious to learn what the twist is, and I don't if we are different or not on that subject, but the twist lies not in who Okiya is, because even if he is a third person, that would prove he appeared after Raiha Falls, but if the extensive evidence is enough that Akai is Okiya the twist lies in the complex explanation of how they pulled off the perfect murder, how much it was premeditated, how long have they had contact and in which form, who is and isn't involved, how Bourbon can act almost identical to Akai, but lacks major personal mannerisms.

I look forward to see Bourbon uncover Okiya's face for whom he is
That's true, Gosho has quite a plot ahead for us - it seems like he knows what he's doing, but you know how I tend to overestimate Gosho - but I have a sneaking suspicion that it's going to be really, really big - Akai's death was planned in the hospital, and he talked about how he wanted to fish deep into the B.O. - I can't help but feel like they'll end up finding out something really important, or at least catch someone important, like maybe Vodka (Gin would be preferred, obviously, but I don't think that the story's there yet).

Speaking of Gin, I just realized a few days ago that his line about Sherlock Holmes might be referring to Akai (the real one) instead - Akai "died" in a really similar way to Holmes, since he "died" at Raiha Peaks while Sherlock "died" at Reichenbach Falls, so maybe Gin meant to say that he wishes that Akai would stay dead and that people like him would stay fictional, rather than referring to Bourbon like I originally thought - but then, that would mean that Gin thinks that Akai is alive now, which makes no sense since I think that Kir is still alive . . . now that I think about it, what was Kir trying to quit from right before Gin asked her to kill Akai . . . and she told Gin that she just quit being a reporter, which makes no sense because if she's not a reporter then why would the B.O. still want her . . . she did want to quit being in the B.O. in the hospital, maybe Akai and Conan understood and asked her to return only for a short while . . . ?

Lol my mind wonders like crazy.  Me and my crazy speculations . . .
Last edited by acerola21 on February 19th, 2010, 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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shinichi1977

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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acerola21 wrote:
shinichi1977 wrote:Deductive logic was born out of argumentation, see Tacitus' Annales for reference, so feel free to argument, that's why we're here
Ha ha, true, true - I'm just a little miffed that everyone seems to think that Okiya is 100% Akai, rather than 80% or even 90%.  Right now I kinda tend to blow up whenever someone says that Okiya=Akai like it's absolutely certain, rather than likely to happen, because I've talked myself blue explaining that it's not 100% certain - though it might become so, at some point in the future, but not right now, at least for me.

Lol can you tell that I hate to lose? ^^;
shinichi1977 wrote:File 419 also contains the fact, that Conan contacted Takagi to scare off anyone who was in that car, which makes it impossible, that they were agents of the organization, because no police officer was is or for an uncertain time will be involved at the slightest with the main plot.
Well, I think that there's a good chance the police will play a big role in the future - Conan knows so many police officers in so many different prefectures, I can't help but think that they're going to play a big role in taking down the B.O. in the end.  It's really just one of my many crazy theories about what will happen that has no real evidence whatsoever other than a hunch, ha ha.
shinichi1977 wrote:One additional note: even the seemingly unrelated plots may contain relevant information, like for example informations on Sharon's funeral, Kogoro's case files being stolen or Akai spying on Vermouth in the restaurant were presented outside the main plot. I too am curious to learn what the twist is, and I don't if we are different or not on that subject, but the twist lies not in who Okiya is, because even if he is a third person, that would prove he appeared after Raiha Falls, but if the extensive evidence is enough that Akai is Okiya the twist lies in the complex explanation of how they pulled off the perfect murder, how much it was premeditated, how long have they had contact and in which form, who is and isn't involved, how Bourbon can act almost identical to Akai, but lacks major personal mannerisms.

I look forward to see Bourbon uncover Okiya's face for whom he is
That's true, Gosho has quite a plot ahead for us - it seems like he knows what he's doing, but you know how I tend to overestimate Gosho - but I have a sneaking suspicion that it's going to be really, really big - Akai's death was planned in the hospital, and he talked about how he wanted to fish deep into the B.O. - I can't help but feel like they'll end up finding out something really important, or at least catch someone important, like maybe Vodka (Gin would be preferred, obviously, but I don't think that the story's there yet).

Speaking of Gin, I just realized a few days ago that his line about Sherlock Holmes might be referring to Akai (the real one) instead - Akai "died" in a really similar way to Holmes, since he "died" at Raiha Peaks while Sherlock "died" at Reichenbach Falls, so maybe Gin meant to say that he wishes that Akai would stay dead and that people like him would stay fictional, rather than referring to Bourbon like I originally thought - but then, that would mean that Gin thinks that Akai is alive now, which makes no sense since I think that Kir is still alive . . . now that I think about it, what was Kir trying to quit from right before Gin asked her to kill Akai . . . and she told Gin that she just quit being a reporter, which makes no sense because if she's not a reporter then why would the B.O. still want her . . . she did want to quit being in the B.O. in the hospital, maybe Akai and Conan understood and asked her to return only for a short while . . . ?

Lol my mind wonders like crazy.  Me and my crazy speculations . . .
I too hate to lose of course ;)

We do know that main plot mysteries are always tied to medical science. If you me along that line, you will hear that handedness develops in really early stage in all of us, which determines if we are left, right handed or if lucky ambidextrous. There is one other major thing that is controlled by that part of the brain: namely, learning.

When someone can't use his or her leading hand it might change of course, like for example an injured or broken shoulder blade and it won't change back, this case is not like one, since we had seen that Scar Akai is burnt on his right cheek, indicating that either real or fake that person was not injured on his dominant side. He could not lose his dominant hand to a brain injury either since as mentioned, he would have lost the capability of learning too and being impaired of that, he could not use a gun, let alone get directions, etc.

For the sake of argument, I go along with you and will say, it's not 100%, that Okiya is Akai. Though that might be true, he can't be Bourbon either because even if Kir was misinformed, a smaller caliber like Vodka, if he could live in the Kudo house would figure out who Conan is even without his photos, and that risk goes beyond the point of reasonable risk.

Sending back Kir was not for catching one culprit, she needs to be inside to bring all of them down, just as Shinichi planned as he was disguised as Ai.
acerola21

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by acerola21 »

shinichi1977 wrote:When someone can't use his or her leading hand it might change of course, like for example an injured or broken shoulder blade and it won't change back, this case is not like one, since we had seen that Scar Akai is burnt on his right cheek, indicating that either real or fake that person was not injured on his dominant side. He could not lose his dominant hand to a brain injury either since as mentioned, he would have lost the capability of learning too and being impaired of that, he could not use a gun, let alone get directions, etc.
It's quite funny how you mention the scar, because I've seen this page (see bottom right panel) and realized that the Akai-looking-dude doesn't have a scar on his right cheek at that moment.  Maybe Gosho forgot to draw it in, or something, but it bothers me.  I haven't seen the anime version - maybe it's drawn in there - but I usually follow the manga for canon references.

Also, since the lady at the Beika department store couldn't remember a man with a scar on his cheek buying the special-made hat only sold in Beika department store, I'm guessing that the Akai-looking-dude didn't have a scar when he bought the hat.  If he's Bourbon and Gosho forgot to draw the scar, that means that Scar(?)Akai Bourbon lived in the Beika area before Kir says he started moving, and he must have lived in Beika for a while, since Akai was in the US ~1 year ago, and was in Japan to infiltrate the B.O. five to two years ago.  If Bourbon hates Akai because the burn was caused by Akai, then that means that Bourbon must have gotten the burn (if it's real) between 5 to 2 years ago, and if Bourbon bought the hat before he got the burn, it means that he must have lived in Beika for two years, at the very least.

But then, Rena said that Bourbon started moving recently (and right after Akai is thought to be dead, too - Rena and Jodie seem to think that Bourbon's target is Sherry, but I have a sneaking suspicion that his real target is to investigate if Akai is really dead or not, since apparently he thinks that only he can kill Akai) - so that doesn't give the impression that Bourbon lived in Beika for a while.  Besides, like I said Rena told Gin that she quit being a newscaster - so I don't think that she plans on staying in the B.O. for long.  She's helpful to the B.O. because she's a newscaster - she can help the B.O. assassinate people by using her position, so I don't see why she would tell Gin that she just quit being a newscaster because the move would arouse suspicions, especially to Gin.  Maybe Scar(?)Akai is just Akai and and he's using himself to fish out the B.O., I dunno. *shrug*

Also, it's fully possible that Akai is ambidextrous.  Lots of left-handed people end up having to be somewhat ambidextrous, since this world is essentially made for right-handed people and whatnot - and I'm sure you guys know, since you guys apparently discussed it at length already.

There's also the possibility that Gosho didn't forget to draw in the scar, and the scar is fake.  This would mean that Scar(?)Akai got the fake scar in the short time span between when Jodie saw him on the streets and when she saw him in the bank . . . and maybe he's really Bourbon and Vermouth helped him disguise his scar, I'm not sure.

Anyways, I'm essentially saying that I can adequately explain both the Okiya = Akai & Scar(?)Akai = Bourbon and the Okiya = Bourbon & Scar(?)Akai = Akai theories at this point, and I see no conclusive evidence that says either one is right and the other wrong - from the manga, anyways.  The biggest supporting evidence for the Okiya = Akai theory would be the Char Aznable references, I think, but maybe Gosho's screwing with us - I have no idea.  There's also the possibility that Scar(?)Akai is a third party person who is neither Akai nor Bourbon, of course, and same for Okiya.
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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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acerola21 wrote:
shinichi1977 wrote:When someone can't use his or her leading hand it might change of course, like for example an injured or broken shoulder blade and it won't change back, this case is not like one, since we had seen that Scar Akai is burnt on his right cheek, indicating that either real or fake that person was not injured on his dominant side. He could not lose his dominant hand to a brain injury either since as mentioned, he would have lost the capability of learning too and being impaired of that, he could not use a gun, let alone get directions, etc.
It's quite funny how you mention the scar, because I've seen this page (see bottom right panel) and realized that the Akai-looking-dude doesn't have a scar on his right cheek at that moment.  Maybe Gosho forgot to draw it in, or something, but it bothers me.  I haven't seen the anime version - maybe it's drawn in there - but I usually follow the manga for canon references.

Also, since the lady at the Beika department store couldn't remember a man with a scar on his cheek buying the special-made hat only sold in Beika department store, I'm guessing that the Akai-looking-dude didn't have a scar when he bought the hat.  If he's Bourbon and Gosho forgot to draw the scar, that means that Scar(?)Akai Bourbon lived in the Beika area before Kir says he started moving, and he must have lived in Beika for a while, since Akai was in the US ~1 year ago, and was in Japan to infiltrate the B.O. five to two years ago.  If Bourbon hates Akai because the burn was caused by Akai, then that means that Bourbon must have gotten the burn (if it's real) between 5 to 2 years ago, and if Bourbon bought the hat before he got the burn, it means that he must have lived in Beika for two years, at the very least.

But then, Rena said that Bourbon started moving recently (and right after Akai is thought to be dead, too - Rena and Jodie seem to think that Bourbon's target is Sherry, but I have a sneaking suspicion that his real target is to investigate if Akai is really dead or not, since apparently he thinks that only he can kill Akai) - so that doesn't give the impression that Bourbon lived in Beika for a while.  Besides, like I said Rena told Gin that she quit being a newscaster - so I don't think that she plans on staying in the B.O. for long.  She's helpful to the B.O. because she's a newscaster - she can help the B.O. assassinate people by using her position, so I don't see why she would tell Gin that she just quit being a newscaster because the move would arouse suspicions, especially to Gin.  Maybe Scar(?)Akai is just Akai and and he's using himself to fish out the B.O., I dunno. *shrug*

Also, it's fully possible that Akai is ambidextrous.  Lots of left-handed people end up having to be somewhat ambidextrous, since this world is essentially made for right-handed people and whatnot - and I'm sure you guys know, since you guys apparently discussed it at length already.

There's also the possibility that Gosho didn't forget to draw in the scar, and the scar is fake.  This would mean that Scar(?)Akai got the fake scar in the short time span between when Jodie saw him on the streets and when she saw him in the bank . . . and maybe he's really Bourbon and Vermouth helped him disguise his scar, I'm not sure.

Anyways, I'm essentially saying that I can adequately explain both the Okiya = Akai & Scar(?)Akai = Bourbon and the Okiya = Bourbon & Scar(?)Akai = Akai theories at this point, and I see no conclusive evidence that says either one is right and the other wrong - from the manga, anyways.  The biggest supporting evidence for the Okiya = Akai theory would be the Char Aznable references, I think, but maybe Gosho's screwing with us - I have no idea.  There's also the possibility that Scar(?)Akai is a third party person who is neither Akai nor Bourbon, of course, and same for Okiya.
Thank you referencing the page. Actually it just stated that sensei draws masterfully and since he drew the figure with the umbrella in a way you can't his right cheek even from the front you can't determine if he has it around his eye (since it's not a complete burn).

I discard the idea of him living in Beika, if he was not confined, he had investigated and followed the still living Akai. A bit later I will tell you what Bourbon actually (or most probably) fakes. Akai survived the assassination attempts by seemingly never staying in one place.

The scar of course can be real, we can not determine right now if it's not but serves a purpose if it's fake. Rena quitting as a newscaster has the exactly opposite effect: dropping her famous persona she blends in as a full-fledged member with a codename, and she has to stay since if Shinichi and Akai were to be killed she still has to wait for a new handler, faking her own death is not an option since they would definitely think it's fake.

As for handedness: 1.you still have a dominant hand and 2. no we don't make left-handed people ambidextrous in any way, we force them to be someone else as they are. Am a right-handed person myself but won't be afraid to speak up for general equality and ignoring the needs of left-handed people is one of the last strongholds of bigotry (aside of chauvinism and religious ignorance against people who think alternatively). His handedness was indeed in length discussed, exhaustingly proving that he is exclusively left-handed.

Oh, even if you can exclude Okiya as Akai, you can say with 100% that Scar Akai is from the organization. As for definitive proof: he did knew that snipers were posted in front of the department store, he even grinned at Chianti, which means he is well-versed in the tactics of the Black Organization.

Now, for the main attraction: Scar Akai fakes developmental dyspraxia or something similar. This homogeneous development disorder lets you live a normal daily life, but robs you of some abilities like speaking, fonation, fine motoric movements, it even makes you from a left-handed to a right-handed person or even ambidextrous.

Still, it is a fake because many other things lack from this act but compelling enough to fool someone like Jodie. Dropping the coffee can in the hospital for example can be seen as a sign of developing Parkinson's, yet it takes great effort to hold objects or standing upright, much less firing a gun or speed e-mailing on a phone of a random person.
acerola21

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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shinichi1977 wrote:Thank you referencing the page. Actually it just stated that sensei draws masterfully and since he drew the figure with the umbrella in a way you can't his right cheek even from the front you can't determine if he has it around his eye (since it's not a complete burn).
Yeah, whether ScarAkai has a scar or not in that panel's really ambiguous.  Gosho keeps changing the position of the scar - at first, it's high up, then Gosho immediately draws the scar downwards, so that the panel I mentioned probably isn't completely reliable for determining whether ScarAkai has scars or not at that point.  I do think that it's a good idea to keep that panel in the back of our minds at this point, though, 'cause Gosho really likes to mess with his readers.
shinichi1977 wrote:I discard the idea of him living in Beika, if he was not confined, he had investigated and followed the still living Akai.
Ha ha well if ScarAkai's scar is real and it's inflicted by Akai and ScarAkai is Bourbon, then ScarAkai must have lived in Beika for a while if he bought the hat before he got the scar.  I mean, if any of the assumptions I mentioned is wrong, then of course ScarAkai may not have lived in Beika for over two years, but if all the assumptions are right then he must have lived in Beika for a while.  If not, then maybe the scar's fake, the scar's not inflicted by Akai, and/or ScarAkai isn't Bourbon.
shinichi1977 wrote:dropping her famous persona she blends in as a full-fledged member with a codename, and she has to stay since if Shinichi and Akai were to be killed she still has to wait for a new handler, faking her own death is not an option since they would definitely think it's fake.
I really don't think that telling Gin that she's quitting her job as a newscaster will do her any good . . . I really think that she's essentially quitting the B.O. if she told Gin something like that.  I mean, Gin seems to be special, since he seems to be good at deducing and will contribute his brain to the B.O., but otherwise all the higher-up B.O. characters seem to have some sort of job that makes them useful to the B.O.  For example, Vermouth is an actress with incredible disguising abilities, Pisco was the CEO of a car company, the dude Pisco killed was a politician, Sherry/Atushi/Elena were/are scientists who develop the APTX4869, and so on and so forth.  It's weird to me that she told Gin that she just quit being a newscaster, whatever she really said over the phone.
shinichi1977 wrote:His handedness was indeed in length discussed, exhaustingly proving that he is exclusively left-handed.
Well, it was mentioned in the post how Akai used his right hand to push buttons on his phone in one panel.  Besides, in File 676 p.4, it turns out that just because Jirokichi threw things with different hands doesn't mean that he's Kaito Kid.  Also, I know people who are left-handed who can use their right hands to play table tennis, or something, because like I said our society caters to right-handed people more.  It might not prove that Akai's ambitextrous, but it certainly opens up the possibility.
shinichi1977 wrote:Oh, even if you can exclude Okiya as Akai, you can say with 100% that Scar Akai is from the organization. As for definitive proof: he did knew that snipers were posted in front of the department store, he even grinned at Chianti, which means he is well-versed in the tactics of the Black Organization.
Well, I wouldn't say 100% - your proof says that Scar!Akai knows about the Organization, but he doesn't necessarily have to be from it.  If you have other proofs I might be persuaded, but not with this one.
shinichi1977 wrote:Now, for the main attraction: Scar Akai fakes developmental dyspraxia or something similar. This homogeneous development disorder lets you live a normal daily life, but robs you of some abilities like speaking, fonation, fine motoric movements, it even makes you from a left-handed to a right-handed person or even ambidextrous.

Still, it is a fake because many other things lack from this act but compelling enough to fool someone like Jodie. Dropping the coffee can in the hospital for example can be seen as a sign of developing Parkinson's, yet it takes great effort to hold objects or standing upright, much less firing a gun or speed e-mailing on a phone of a random person.
Ha ha ha, maybe.  The theory certainly explains why ScarAkai was mute at first and why Akai dropped that coffee.  Other theories are possible at this point, though, and I'll have to see more evidence from the series to really believe yours.

EDIT:  Now that I think about it, I think that it's more likely that Akai tried to open the coffee can with just his left hand because he didn't want his right hand's prints on the can.  If the police compared the prints from the can and the prints from the corpse, they'll figure out that the prints aren't the same and Jodie will know that the corpse isn't Akai's, which would ruin the whole plan.
Last edited by acerola21 on February 26th, 2010, 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by shinichi1977 »

shinichi1977 wrote:I discard the idea of him living in Beika, if he was not confined, he had investigated and followed the still living Akai.
Ha ha well if ScarAkai's scar is real and it's inflicted by Akai and ScarAkai is Bourbon, then ScarAkai must have lived in Beika for a while if he bought the hat before he got the scar.  I mean, if any of the assumptions I mentioned is wrong, then of course ScarAkai may not have lived in Beika for over two years, but if all the assumptions are right then he must have lived in Beika for a while.  If not, then maybe the scar's fake, the scar's not inflicted by Akai, and/or ScarAkai isn't Bourbon.
shinichi1977 wrote:dropping her famous persona she blends in as a full-fledged member with a codename, and she has to stay since if Shinichi and Akai were to be killed she still has to wait for a new handler, faking her own death is not an option since they would definitely think it's fake.
I really don't think that telling Gin that she's quitting her job as a newscaster will do her any good . . . I really think that she's essentially quitting the B.O. if she told Gin something like that.  I mean, Gin seems to be special, since he seems to be good at deducing and will contribute his brain to the B.O., but otherwise all the higher-up B.O. characters seem to have some sort of job that makes them useful to the B.O.  For example, Vermouth is an actress with incredible disguising abilities, Pisco was the CEO of a car company, the dude Pisco killed was a politician, Sherry/Atushi/Elena were/are scientists who develop the APTX4869, and so on and so forth.  It's weird to me that she told Gin that she just quit being a newscaster, whatever she really said over the phone.
shinichi1977 wrote:His handedness was indeed in length discussed, exhaustingly proving that he is exclusively left-handed.
Well, it was mentioned in the post how Akai used his right hand to push buttons on his phone in one panel.  Besides, in File 676 p.4, it turns out that just because Jirokichi threw things with different hands doesn't mean that he's Kaito Kid.  Also, I know people who are left-handed who can use their right hands to play table tennis, or something, because like I said our society caters to right-handed people more.  It might not prove that Akai's ambitextrous, but it certainly opens up the possibility.
shinichi1977 wrote:Oh, even if you can exclude Okiya as Akai, you can say with 100% that Scar Akai is from the organization. As for definitive proof: he did knew that snipers were posted in front of the department store, he even grinned at Chianti, which means he is well-versed in the tactics of the Black Organization.
Well, I wouldn't say 100% - your proof says that Scar!Akai knows about the Organization, but he doesn't necessarily have to be from it.  If you have other proofs I might be persuaded, but not with this one.
shinichi1977 wrote:Now, for the main attraction: Scar Akai fakes developmental dyspraxia or something similar. This homogeneous development disorder lets you live a normal daily life, but robs you of some abilities like speaking, fonation, fine motoric movements, it even makes you from a left-handed to a right-handed person or even ambidextrous.

Still, it is a fake because many other things lack from this act but compelling enough to fool someone like Jodie. Dropping the coffee can in the hospital for example can be seen as a sign of developing Parkinson's, yet it takes great effort to hold objects or standing upright, much less firing a gun or speed e-mailing on a phone of a random person.
Ha ha ha, maybe.  The theory certainly explains why ScarAkai was mute at first and why Akai dropped that coffee.  Other theories are possible at this point, though, and I'll have to see more evidence from the series to really believe yours.

EDIT:  Now that I think about it, I think that it's more likely that Akai tried to open the coffee can with just his left hand because he didn't want his right hand's prints on the can.  If the police compared the prints from the can and the prints from the corpse, they'll figure out that the prints aren't the same and Jodie will know that the corpse isn't Akai's, which would ruin the whole plan.
[/quote]

To the baseball hat: the simple reason they haven't seen a man with a scar, because the person might not had one, we cannot exclude Bourbon resembles Akai just as much as Kaito does with Shinichi. What we do know, he bought the hat after the red shirts started to come. Since Kogoro Mouri is the most famous private detective in the area, regardless to which address the shirts were sent, there was a 50% percent probability that the person will ask him for help.

To quitting: I guess you totally had missed the part where Shiho lays down the rules, first and foremost you can't leave the organization. Active high-ranking members do not have day jobs much less publicity. Quitting the TV station meant she did not wanted them to get involved and that actually helps the organization to use these agents and if discovered they can say, they just have an errand or something like that in that area, of course with the exclusion of the Toriya Bridge since Vermouth could not risk being detected. Gin sucks at deduction, he only makes assumptions and acts on them even if they are false positives. Vermouth really is good in disguises, but she is not an actress anymore. Pisco, is indeed was a retired CEO when we met him, and Pisco killed a lawyer. So it's not weird, quite the contrary it's wished.

Ok, hating to lose is one thing, but that is going to be much :d As mentioned above, you can't leave the organization alive. Okiya did saw them too, but he wouldn't have grinned at them. I would like to acquire how you think he knew where a sniper would be if he in difference to Okiya has not seen them, still knew who was there. Refuting claims are okay, but you also need to make counterclaims, otherwise nothing will be 100% as long it comes from someone else.

To the fingerprints: to be more precise, he feared Jodie would examine it just like she did with her father's glasses.
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Chekhov MacGuffin
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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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shinichi1977 wrote:Since Kogoro Mouri is the most famous private detective in the area, regardless to which address the shirts were sent, there was a 50% percent probability that the person will ask him for help.
This is my scientist side objecting, but it is really silly to use numbers/percentages/probabilities like this without quantitative data to back it up. Unless you have an analysis of how fictional DC civilians choose which fictional local detective office to visit, 50% means nothing. I would stick purely qualitative words like "likely".
shinichi1977 wrote: Active high-ranking members do not have day jobs much less publicity.
That's false. Vermouth was an actor and a high ranking member who was indeed conducting missions like luring out Akai dressed as a serial killer while in the public eye. Kir, also a codenamed agent, was specifically told to get into showbiz because it was convenient for them. Politician Domon's assassination plan relied on her newscaster job. Pisco was the president(?) of a car company; I don't think he was retired at the time but I have to check that info. In all three cases, they were all highly visible members of society. I would doubt Gin has a highly-visible day job because he directly meets with non-BO-member people for business and assassination who would know who he was pretty quickly if they saw him in daylight given his not-subtle appearance. That could change if Gin was decent as disguise -which he may be- but we don't know that yet.
shinichi1977 wrote:Gin sucks at deduction, he only makes assumptions and acts on them even if they are false positives.
Definitely wrong. He does make some false assumptions which I can't blame him for since he doesn't expect adults to turn into children, nor does he expect that his primary opposition is a child as well, but don't forget his deduction in the locker room where he points out cold weather puts excessive strain on the sympathetic nervous system so someone with heart problems would never go to a rural house in the middle of the Gumna winter. He also recognized the purpose of the every trap Conan put on/in the CD case at a quick glance. Those were Shinichi level deductions there.
shinichi1977 wrote:Vermouth really is good in disguises, but she is not an actress anymore.
She could go back to her role at anytime though. The things that are keeping her from doing so are the boss's request for her to remain at his side and her knowledge that Conan and the FBI know her identity at Chris Vineyard.
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on February 28th, 2010, 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
acerola21

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by acerola21 »

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:This is my scientist side objecting, but it is really silly to use numbers/percentages/probabilities like this without quantitative data to back it up. Unless you have an analysis of how fictional DC civilians choose which fictional local detective office to visit, 50% means nothing. I would stick purely qualitative words like "likely".
Ha ha, for me, words like "likely" doesn't express how sure I feel about something, so I started using numbers - but you're right, I guess that I shouldn't mix quantitative data with qualitative ones.

I've been thinking about making a tree diagram of all the different possibilities and try to make a quantitative data out of it, though - I'll have to make silly assumptions to come out with hard data, but it'll be fun, I think. ^^
shinichi1977 wrote:To the baseball hat: the simple reason they haven't seen a man with a scar, because the person might not had one, we cannot exclude Bourbon resembles Akai just as much as Kaito does with Shinichi. What we do know, he bought the hat after the red shirts started to come. Since Kogoro Mouri is the most famous private detective in the area, regardless to which address the shirts were sent, there was a 50% percent probability that the person will ask him for help.
I didn't say that Bourbon doesn't resemble Akai - he could, and like I said, he could be ScarAkai.  I really don't know why you think that ScarAkai bought the hat after the red shirts started to come - do you have evidence?  Any page or chapter you can point me to, so that I can examine it myself?  I try to back my evidence with specific pages whenever I can, and it would be great if you could return the courtesy.
shinichi1977 wrote:To quitting: I guess you totally had missed the part where Shiho lays down the rules, first and foremost you can't leave the organization. Active high-ranking members do not have day jobs much less publicity. Quitting the TV station meant she did not wanted them to get involved and that actually helps the organization to use these agents and if discovered they can say, they just have an errand or something like that in that area, of course with the exclusion of the Toriya Bridge since Vermouth could not risk being detected. Gin sucks at deduction, he only makes assumptions and acts on them even if they are false positives. Vermouth really is good in disguises, but she is not an actress anymore. Pisco, is indeed was a retired CEO when we met him, and Pisco killed a lawyer. So it's not weird, quite the contrary it's wished.
If she really plans on quitting she must have some plan - but even if she wasn't going to quit, it's strange for her to tell Gin that she just quit being a newscaster, because as Chekhov has explained above her job was convenient for the B.O. (lol I suck at explaining my points clearly).  I guess that the whole quitting part is speculation on my side (stemmed from my ScarAkai=Akai! mind, ha ha, as a speculation on why Akai would show his plain face around if he's Akai), but there's a really good chance that the scene is important to the plot somehow.

I don't see any evidence that Pisco was a retired CEO - again, would you give me proof from a page in the manga?  As for the man Pisco killed, he's definitely a politician, not a lawyer - in the raw that I checked (File 239 p.11), the man is listed as a 政治家, which means politician.  If he was a lawyer he would have been listed as a å¼
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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by mizumi »

o.O
acerola21

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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

Post by acerola21 »

mizumi wrote: o.O
Lol, what's wrong?
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Re: New Member Here - A few theories

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mizumi wrote: o.O
O.o Maybe mizumi needed some short posts to clear his/her head?
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