Postby Akonyl » March 22nd, 2010, 9:08 pm
So, I was going to point out some information (Sonoko is conia btw, and I'm his best friend), but I realized it's pretty pointless to say, because basically:
(this is all based on there only being 3 total BO members though, although I don't think that there would be 4 because that would just be an insane amount of mafia for a game imo)
(it also takes into account that yumi actually set up two lovers and didn't just forget to do it)
If my trick tonight is successful, we know the (I'm guessing final) BO member's identity and the town wins if they all believe me, 3 town votes vs the 2 lover votes.
If it isn't, and one person (non-lover, not me) dies, then there are 4 people left. Two of them are lovers, and will vote with each other, making them unlynchable. If we stalemate on the lynching, I have a 50/50 chance of being able to trick the mafia the next night, and me and the non-lover townie can stalemate for eternity.
if it isn't, and one person dies (me), there are 4 people left, two of which are lovers. The lovers will get a stalemate lynch vote and will eventually have the BO kill off the other players and will get a Lovers' win. In this situation, conia would know who the BO member is, however there's a 50/50 chance he's a lover and would lie anyway, so it's not much use believing him.
If it isn't, and two people (the lovers) die, then there are 3 people left, one of which is me. There is a 50/50 chance we lynch the correct remaining person (given they don't lynch me), and if we lynch either one of them, it's me + the BO member, who will stalemate for eternity.
So basically, unless I got anything wrong, tonight is a big roll of the die and I hope I chose the right person :O