Espionage - Round 5 (Spy and Informants Win)

[PhantomWriter]

Yay! It begins!

[Togop]

OK, surprising drop in activity here compared to the prep phase
Usually the prep phase is more active...
Anyway, thinking about the fake investigate more, assuming everyone post one set of random investigate results per day, on average one person will be outed as non-detective per day by way of clearing the spy. Considering that, in exchange, we only get hints about one non-spy per day, but no certainty, I don't think it's worth it (even though the detective has control over the non-spy). If the results aren't random, but are selected to have a different non-spy, then we'll consistently have one person outed as non-detective. If, instead, many people select the same non-spy, then we'll have less frequently a bunch of people outed as non-detective. I don't see an obvious way to fix that.

Anyway, I have one hour to learn modern physics so that's all from me for now

[PhantomWriter]

An hour to learn physics? Are you sure you're going to be okay, Togop?

Well, there are fifteen players. Barring a case of the detective selecting the spy early in for investigation, that means there are possibly up to thirteen days between the start of the game and the detective finally finding out who the spy is. If people end up posting fake investigation results, that may lower the time because different people will say different people aren't the spy. This increases the likelihood that people will say the spy isn't the spy. And the informants could also muck things up by saying the spy isn't the spy.

The more people who are doing the fake investigations and the more rounds that go by, process of elimination takes over, unless the detective lies. Unfortunately, if the detective lies, then people will start trusting the wrong person (spy) and distrusting who needs to be trusted (civilians). But, if too few do the fake investigation, the detective can't share their ideas without painting a target on their back, along with the civilians doing so also painting a target on their backs.

[dumytru]

The more people who are doing the fake investigations and the more rounds that go by, process of elimination takes over, unless the detective lies. Unfortunately, if the detective lies, then people will start trusting the wrong person (spy) and distrusting who needs to be trusted (civilians). But, if too few do the fake investigation, the detective can't share their ideas without painting a target on their back, along with the civilians doing so also painting a target on their backs.

The Detective has no reason to lie. Even if the Informant says "[spy-name] is not the spy", nobody's going to care.
That's why it's called "fake investigation". It's an advantage once the Detective dies, and not before.

And it looks like SA's strategy won't be used after all.
And after I thought about it for a while, I think it's for the best. At most, we would've delayed the first kill.

[Jecka]

OK, surprising drop in activity here compared to the prep phase
Usually the prep phase is more active...

Well that explains it. If prep's usually more active isn't it safe to say the first day would be less?

[PhantomWriter]

The more people who are doing the fake investigations and the more rounds that go by, process of elimination takes over, unless the detective lies. Unfortunately, if the detective lies, then people will start trusting the wrong person (spy) and distrusting who needs to be trusted (civilians). But, if too few do the fake investigation, the detective can't share their ideas without painting a target on their back, along with the civilians doing so also painting a target on their backs.

The Detective has no reason to lie. Even if the Informant says "[spy-name] is not the spy", nobody's going to care.
That's why it's called "fake investigation". It's an advantage once the Detective dies, and not before.

And it looks like SA's strategy won't be used after all.
And after I thought about it for a while, I think it's for the best. At most, we would've delayed the first kill.

That is a bit of a risk, considering the game ends in two game days if the detective dies. Though I could see how such a situation could work with the civilians searching for the spy. If the informants keep saying during their fake investigation the spy isn't the spy or both say the spy isn't the spy during the same round, for example, then it becomes easier for the civilians to pinpoint the spy and the informants.

And there's still ironic process theory to keep in mind. People tend to reveal more information about a subject where they know something others don't if they're deliberately trying to conceal said information. That'll be useful to pinpoint the informants and the spy. It's a double-edged sword, though, because that also applies to the detective.

Perhaps I'm making this needlessly complicated, though. *shrugs*

Though I do have to agree, it is for the best if the fake investigates aren't used. It may delay the first kill to a later time, but it could end up resulting in the first kill or earlier kills in the game actually getting the detective.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

sorry if I'm not around people. My cat passing away has me kinda distracted

[Jecka]

I have a history final due tomorrow so I'm gonna focus on that ^^;
Just a heads up if you notice I'm not saying anything :X

[PhantomWriter]

sorry if I'm not around people. My cat passing away has me kinda distracted

Understandable. IRL stuff comes first, okay? *hugs*

[Kleene Onigiri]

*hugs Yuri* D:


I'll do SA's strategy :V

[MoonRaven]

What strategy it was again? Not saying anything? Fine by me.

[dumytru]

*hugs Yuri* D:


I'll do SA's strategy :V

It wasn't too much activity anyway.

Though it might've been enough for the Informants to identify themselves.
I guess we'll find out when the phase ends.

[MoonRaven]

Has people been sending their votes now though? Just checking.

[Jellitto]

Has people been sending their votes now though? Just checking.

Well, they still have time if they haven't.

[PhantomWriter]

Has people been sending their votes now though? Just checking.

*checks the clock* Well, we have a bit over two hours as of now to cast some votes.

With how little people are talking, I honestly don't think I'm going to vote and I'll take the subsequent automatic vote against myself. There's not enough information yet to figure out who's suspicious or could be the spy from what I can deduce. Everyone thus far has either been explaining whether or not certain actions are a good idea and defending their view about what to do, or has been explaining why they're not very active. >>'

Edit: Checked the rules. I can't abstain from voting. I'll probably just vote for myself. >>'