Discussion Thread: Detective Conan Files 894-898: Scarlet Series!

[Okiyakaivan]

If okiya is shinichi, we don't know if he can block the attack from ran for 1st time that she meet him?

[Smitty]

If okiya is shinichi, we don't know if he can block the attack from ran for 1st time that she meet him?

I don't know if this is in response to me. Okiya was not Shinichi in Okiya's intro case, paper plane case, or in any Okiya case.

[k11chi]

Also Kir will be in trouble. Not to let Amuro inform Akai being alive is Conans first priority right now.

In the first page of Final Destination it mentions how Bourbon is "An investigator terrifyingly proficient in observation, perception and gathering of information". This could just be the hype for him being able to figure these things out easily, and we may not get to see how he actually did it.

[User 4869]

Spoiler:

Welcome to the forum. Smitty

How did Bourbon find Shinichi's (or the "Kudo's") house
Bourbon was there when Okiya give Conan phone in delivery service case. Chek said she can explain further (here me pass the bucket)

Why was it necessary for Vermouth to disguise as Scar Akai on the Mystery Train? There were no known FBI agents aboard
There is Sera that she need to talk to.

Based on the past few chapters, is Vermouth's promise related to protecting Conan? (related, did Scar Akai really protect Conan during the Bank Robbery case?)
Promise-probably yes. protect-there are many reason
http://www.detectiveconanworld.com/wiki ... le_motives

Was Team Conan's plan on the Mystery Train really to make the BO believe Sherry is dead?
Yes, Except Vermouth

The mask is a bone for Bourbon to bite, with the real voice technology around the high collar.
Good point

We have yet to see Conan acknowledge that Okiya knows that Conan is Shinichi
By my understanding. Okiya know Conan is Shinichi, and almost 100 percent tell Conan that he know. (Yusaku cold case)

Kir was hospitalized under the pretense that she was Akai's sister
i dont think this will reference again. Everyone know Kir is not Akai sister

Anything related to Agent Camel is very dangerous - he was supposed to be blown up (603.14)
No one know it was Camel that blowed up, just an FBI in the car. Vermouth and Bourbon already met him.

I don't believe Kir is in any real danger in terms of the plot. If she escapes/dies, we as readers have only seen one benefit for her return to the BO which was Bourbon being "activated".
Hope so, but chance are slim

[Okiyakaivan]

about the kudos house... bourbon safe the detective boys from the freeze truck thing... that how he know the house are

[Shiromi]

Here are my thoughts on the current developments, there's little structure to it, and I go off on different points...

Questions:

Spoiler:

How did Bourbon find Shinichi's (or the "Kudo's") house?
-or-
How did Bourbon find Okiya's house?

Where did Bourbon think he was going?

Spoiler:

Is that even Bourbon? Could it be Vermouth? She also doesn't like Akai (he shot her, afterall) but she may want to warn Shinichi too...

[Chekhov MacGuffin]

Welcome to the forum. Smitty

How did Bourbon find Shinichi's (or the "Kudo's") house
Bourbon was there when Okiya give Conan phone in delivery service case. Chek said she can explain further (here me pass the bucket)

Here is how I think (this is a hypothesis, not a firm theory) that Bourbon found Okiya. His goal was to find intelligent friends of Conan's who have moved in recently, knowing that Akai was working together with Conan because he figured out the fake death plan. He had already run into many of Conan's acquaintances, but several, like Okiya, have eluded him. He saw Okiya once in the Mouri Detective Agency bathroom murder case and could have deduced he was chasing the car with Conan in it and aiming to shoot it even. Amuro also heard in that case about Conan's tracking devices (798pg4), so can deduce that Okiya was using those. Amuro knows Okiya's car, so he isn't starting completely blind. If he goes to the Kudo house and sees Okiya's car, and then couples that with what he learned about the person living in the Kudo house from the delivery case, I think Bourbon has enough to strongly suspect Okiya. He can check up on a few things, like maybe utility use, mail delivery, neighbor testimony, or other info (Mystery train ticket holder names?) to figure out when Okiya moved in and he would be good.

Conan was pretty desperate in the delivery case, enough so that he called upon Bourbon's help. To explain what Amuro learned about Kudo household's resident in the delivery case, first we need to jump ahead in time. In the tea party case, when Bourbon became certain that Conan already knew he was one of the Black Organization, he could reflect back and realize just how desperate Conan was to call on him during the delivery case. Keep this in mind.

Jumping back in time to the delivery case, once Bourbon had seen the layout of the delivery truck, he realized that Conan had been trapped in the back and could not contact the outside world by usual means, hence the message by cat. However, Conan had a completely functional cellphone when he was rescued (Bourbon even asked Conan to make a call with it, proving it was working [Conan should have pretended it was dead if he was being clever...]). Putting two and two together, Bourbon would realize that the cellphone must have come to Conan sometime after Conan sent the cat message because Conan probably would have done everything else he could think of before contacting Bourbon. It makes the most sense that Conan managed to uncover an opportunity and send out an SOS via one of the packages to someone highly intelligent who then gave the delivery men a package with a cellphone. Considering that Conan was right outside the Kudo house, the Kudo house is right on top of the list of places where he could have received help, along with any locations nearby. Amuro might have also noticed Okiya's figure in the window. It basically became a matter of figuring out where in the local area the delivery truck would have delivered to that Akai-aged men have moved recently.

I don't know if this is the answer that will be revealed, but it it good enough for me.

[User 4869]

Here are my thoughts on the current developments, there's little structure to it, and I go off on different points...

Questions:

Spoiler:

How did Bourbon find Shinichi's (or the "Kudo's") house?
-or-
How did Bourbon find Okiya's house?

Where did Bourbon think he was going?

Spoiler:

Is that even Bourbon? Could it be Vermouth? She also doesn't like Akai (he shot her, afterall) but she may want to warn Shinichi too...

Spoiler:

Vermouth could have use a better choice of disguise, Ran, for example. Rather than Amuro, that can be shot on sight. And she should come to Agasa house, not Kudo.
I am not sure if Vermouth will go so far as to warn Conan, but if she choose to she could have texted or call him. Vermouth was show to be able to get Haibara number
http://www.dctp.ws/V78-Reader/V78-8Read/A3.html
Despite did not come near her (If Conan isn't lying and Okiya send the message altogether, famous, baseless theory.)

From Chekhov explanation above, I will try to say it as short as possible, not to outdo her but for tl:dr effect.

Spoiler:

- Bourbon knows that Conan knows he is a BO member, thus will avoid him at all cost
- Conan choose to contact him despite having a cellphone, so the cellphone should come to Conan after he send the cat away, but before Amuro found him
- A person give Conan a phone in the short time interval, Bourbon could figure the trick (send code to a recipient, he give the phone back.)
- Bourbon can conclude that the person must be an intelligent individual, couple with the fact that Amuro already know one place among the recipients. He will target Kudo house.

[Jd-]

It'd be great if this just went off the walls mental right now, like...

Spoiler:

This all being an elaborate trap to lure Amuro in on his own, so that someone can shoot him with the tranquilizer watch and they can interrogate him.

Only then can I accept the dial-a-disguise this time. Only then!

[Kudo Shinchi]

@Jd- About Akai appearing as himself on the Mystery Train; I'm pretty sure it was because Amuro at that point had already seen Okiya once, during the Detective Nocturne case. They both saw each other very briefly during the car chase. If I remember correctly as well, there was a theory going around then that Amuro suspected Dr. Agasa to be Akai in disguise based on what he'd heard of him, and that when he saw Okiya he may have thought he was looking at Agasa (or in his mind, Akai.) Obviously this hunch didn't have too much evidence and Amuro didn't really follow up on it before the MT case. The point is, though, that he had already seen Okiya before the MT case, and probably knew he was a local involved in Conan's life. If Akai appeared as Okiya on the MT case, Amuro would know where to start looking right away, since I'm pretty sure he wouldn't just drop the fact that someone on the train with a grenade had directly interfered with his plan. Even if Akai ditched his Okiya identity right after that and disappeared, that would seem only more suspicious to Amuro, who would probably then decide to stay around anyways to investigate further, and what ended up happening for real in the story would happen anyways. Akai would have to come back with a new identity, since his mission as Okiya is staying hidden AND protecting Haibara, and in that case he'd make himself more conspicuous, as having Okiya disappear and be replaced by yet another new person would scream suspicious.

I think regardless of what Akai chose to do in that situation, he and Conan were screwed either way. Employing someone like Kaitou Kid in their plan was a mistake, since he really is the reason why Akai had to intervene in the first place. I actually like that the mess that the protagonists are in right now directly stemmed from their sloppy planning back on the Mystery Train; their actions had consequences, and now they have to deal with them.

[Conan 48:69]

Perhaps Yusaku no-show for Macademy Awards ceremony, when the announcer said "The winner of the best script award is...Yusaku Kudou", but Yusaku didn't come to receive the award, then one of the staff said Mr Kudou had some urgency matter and could attend the ceremony, he is return to Japan to solve the matter, or even said he is return home to solve his son's matter. Ran who is looking forward to watch ceremony, hearing this announcement may make her think that Shinichi is coming home, then Ran calling Shinichi on phone or even rushing to Kudou's residence. When Ran arrived, she saw Amuro and Okiya (Either Yukiko or Yusaku in disguise) confronting each other.

[Okiyakaivan]

dr.agasa as akai? that really wierd...

[k11chi]

Well remember what the gain from Mystery Train was? It was Bourbon... At the moment it looks like that backfired massively...

[Okiyakaivan]

johnny bip? johnny deep?

[Kor]

I'm not fully caught up on everything to date, but wanted to add that...

Spoiler:

I'm not entirely sure I understand the purpose that would be served by having anyone, Yuusaku or not, disguise as Okiya here. In any other situation, you would be trying to prove that Disguise A is not Person A by having Person A appear while Disguise A is around (as has been done several times now with Conan/Shinichi appearing together). However, due to Akai being meant to be dead, that's not really a logical ploy here (although the next point I'll make in the second spoiler may suggest otherwise).

So, if this Okiya is the real Okiya but with someone else providing the voice... Why? Akai has already completely altered his voice, by whatever means, to no longer be recognizable when he's Okiya. Now, if this disguise is Yuusaku as Okiya, for example, I'm again not sure what the strategic value is exactly. I can't really settle on a coherent reason as to why they would go through all that unless it's that Akai is, for whatever possible reason that Gosho comes up with as justification, about to make another dramatic appearance but thís time while Okiya is already around. As will be mentioned below, protecting the Okiya identity shouldn't take precedent over the fact that as soon as Akai is confirmed alive to the Black Org, Kir will go the way of Old Yeller.

But, my question is, should something like this happen: Why would Bourbon ever be fooled by any of this? He, of all people, knows the power of disguises. He shouldn't be fooled by the way someone looks or the way they sound and isn't likely to eliminate anyone on that basis given that he's already been involved in two perfect disguises himself and has seen countless more thanks to Vermouth.

Spoiler:

Truthfully, Gosho might be tricking us with details that end up not being important. For all we know, Yusaku has nothing to do with anything; Okiya wears a mask simply because; Amuro has no clue who Okiya is and just comes to ask some questions, and there will be no face-off next week (dramatic cliffhanger for the sake of a dramatic cliffhanger).
My problem with this train of thought is that I can't recall Gosho ever doing that. Usually, the information he drops along the way has some purpose.

Spoiler:

I have to ask of Akai: Where does Kir's impending doom fit into that plan? Even the slightest suggestion that Akai is still alive would be enough to set Gin off, as we saw during the Red Shirts case. Kir already mentioned before that Bourbon was dangerous, so clearly she wasn't expecting much discretion or sympathy from him if it came to that.

Appearing as Okiya without the glasses or, better yet, just coming up with another concealing agent of any sort (even a scarf would do) seems like a much better choice than appearing as Akai himself. He had to know that something may go down on the train when he got aboard, so not being prepared for that eventuality seems like a pretty big mistake on Akai's part if we take it all at face value (not that we should, necessarily).

Eventually, if the Black Org knew that Akai were still alive, Bourbon would come knocking on doors. If they ever arrived at Okiya (as Bourbon now has), it may get a bit suspicious given his sudden appearance conveniently right after Akai himself "died". Haibara happens to be right next door, so in fact, one could argue that by appearing as Akai instead of taking other measures, he has actually put Haibara in far more danger by keeping Bourbon around (and by living next door in the first place, one could argue). If you look at everything that happened since then, including Amuro now stalking the detective agency and spending a lot of time around Conan, Akai's appearance on the train actually caused a lot of problems that otherwise would have never come to be. Bourbon was already convinced Akai was dead, so Jodie's friend wouldn't have been forced to be involved, Bourbon wouldn't have uncovered so much about Conan or gotten this deeply involved with Mouri and the others, he wouldn't have gotten this far with everything else that's going on (Sera, Jodie, the FBI, etc), wouldn't have uncovered the trick with Rikumichi's body, along with a litany of other issues that directly arose from Akai showing himself on that train.

This isn't even inclusive of Sera being in danger. Them knowing Akai is alive for sure puts her in a terribly perilous position in and of itself. She is then leverage for him to come out of hiding if they so wish to go that route, or they may have just killed her.

If it were me in his place and I had to throw that grenade and had to be seen doing it (necessary for dramatic effect but little else), I would have done so as Okiya and ditched that identity if I felt exposed. At best, Bourbon would think the FBI, CIA, or some other agency had been monitoring the Black Organization's operation and wouldn't have immediately went to "That's Akai Shuuichi". With this course of action, he at the very least gives everyone a chance (including Kir) to not be put into immediate danger. With what did happen in actuality, though, we have everyone in very unnecessary danger. The worst that would come of it is Bourbon being confident and curious enough to find Okiya (who I don't think he'd even seen in any form up to that point, but it's been a long-long time since I've read/watched those old cases) and find the house he was staying in, but with the comparable little information Bourbon had at the time, he definitely was not in any danger of connecting all of those dots at nearly the same speed he has now.

So, in all, we have:
- Appear as Okiya for the grenade toss and Bourbon is mystified as to who this person is but has no solid leads at that moment. Kir stays alive and entirely out of harm's way as there's no proof or reason to connect Okiya Subaru with "Akai is alive" at this point in time. He can ditch this identity if necessary and go a different route; very few people knew Okiya, and it'd be as simple as saying he found a new apartment to let him move away and out of the lives of the very few that had met him before. At best, Amuro somehow uncovers Okiya's name and location, but he has no conclusive means of connecting all the dots as he still has no confirmation that Akai is alive--and in fact has no real reason to investigate this mysterious grenade tosser in the first place.

- Appear as Akai for the grenade toss and confirm to Bourbon, who believed Akai to be completely dead at that time, that Akai was still alive. This reignites Bourbon's interest in the case, when otherwise he was fully ready to give up and report back to the Black Org that, yes, Akai Shuuichi really was dead. Instead, by appearing as Akai, everyone is in danger: Conan, Ran, Haibara, Mouri, Jodie, Camel, James, everyone around them is now going to be in the Black Org's spotlight for the foreseeable future. This, ultimately, turns out to be quite a wild move on Akai's part, as he unnecessarily led a Black Org member right into Conan's life.

I can't help but assume that Gosho has a better explanation than what we've theorized so far as to why Akai did that. The current situation just doesn't seem very logical or, more importantly, smart, and thus not really in accordance with Akai's careful character we'd witnessed up to this point.

Spoiler:

So far this is my only explanation: Everyone was being stupid and reckless in the Train Case. It's only miraculous that it worked so well for Conan.
That case is why I can't rule out Yusaku disguising as Okiya at this moment. It sounds dumb, but so does "Conan and his friends going on a train potentially filled with B.O. agents", or "Conan finding Kaito Kid and persuading him to disguise as Shiho".