I know the increase doesn't sound much. It is just going from 1/5 to 1/4. But the total chance of Holmes being BO is quite good.Akonyl wrote:alright, I see what you mean now because I read it wrong in the first place, and yeah I guess that's true that it makes the probabilities of the others being true approximately 25%. However I'm still not sure why you're saying that this makes xpon any less suspicious (if you are, but maybe I'm reading this wrong too, in which case sorrySchillok wrote:The dream said he is a town role. If he is BO trying to confuse us then it means my dream about him was wrong, which means one of the other roles must be right.Akonyl wrote: out of curiosity, why is it 99% that xpon's identity was wrong? Short of the dream claiming he was ayumi or your role, it would be just as likely the dream was wrong about him as it is about holmes wouldn't it?
If he is Sherry then it means my dream about him was wrong as well. Again, this increases the chances of each of the remaining 4 to 25%.
The remaining 1% is xpon claiming to be Haibara while being another town role. In which case I hope he realizes what mess his acting brought us in. And himself, since he will fail to prove his role this day. But that would have been extremely short-sighted so I doubt he had chosen that tactic.
), as all it means is that he isn't that town role that the dream claims (which wasn't really part of the discussion anyway, it was whether he was haibara or a bo member). And excluding him from the possible choices only increases the chance of each person's info being right in the dream from 20% to 25%, which really isn't that much of an increase at all.
For a normal player it is about 1/3 (assuming there is about one third BOs VS two third town). So the total chance of Holmes being BO is about
1/4 + (3/4 * 1/3) = 1/2. That is 50%.
(Chance of my dream being right (=he is BO) + Chance of my dream being wrong but he is BO anyway).
If anyone has a better suggestion, I am open for it. But otherwise that 50% > 33.4% we have for "random lynching".
Of course it requires believing that I am telling the truth. About that... see my answer below.
No, nothing about PM. But your suggestions seemed logical and I came to similar conclusions. Beside I don't think a BO would be the first one to start the accusations.pofa wrote: 3. Yeah, I wondered about that, too. I figured something must have been going on via PM.
Yeah. If he is Sherry he is as good as dead. But I guess Haibara and Sherry are two different roles concerning APTX, right? So the BO might have to use more than one capsule to kill him.a. Given Shcillok's post, Holmes seems like a good bet, unless he says something really convincing in his defense. We don't have a role to check tonight for him like we do with xpon.
b1-b3. Yes, there are a lot of ways for it to go wrong, but xpon has already revealed himself. I think that makes the "he'll just get poisoned if he gives us info" argument moot. If he's a townie, he's lost anyway: with the APTX in play, he probably won't live much longer. If we don't lynch him, he'll most likely get killed or poisoned soon. We may as well use him before he dies. Following one person before he dies is better than following none.
As a townie I would have little reason to make up a dream. And if I read "Matsudas" role correctly only one dream is given out every night. Right Conia?I guess there's no reason to trust that Schillok didn't make up the dream. We can investigate that more slowly (Schillok, if you're willing, I'd be interested in knowing what role your dream said I was over PM). But if there's a chance to take Korn, a sniper, out, I like that idea better than going after a possible Haibara.
So if I am BO and just made up a dream that means someone is out there who got a dream. Which would show I am lying (or that other person is). Which would basically prove that I am BO (or that other person claiming to have had a dream tonight would be lying).
Again, no matter the outcome it is beneficial to the town again.
Yup. You five. Watching a horror movie. ::)pofa wrote: I don't think you were in the dream, xGinx. :)
He listed Kleene, Commi-Ninja, xpon, Holmes, and me.
He doesn't want to reveal everything on the open thread to avoid making people BO targets.
I can't really trust anyone else as well. But that doesn't change that we need a tactic for the day. And at the moment you (Holmes) or xpon are the most suspicious.Holmes wrote: You said it yourself sir/madam, I don´t trust any of you.
Another point: I´ve never said I wouldn´t cooperate.
Third point: I have a whole day school, so bare it with me.
xpon because of his behaviour and you because... well, mainly because of a dream and probability.
And the first post you made after I revealed my tactic was about 4 hours ago. That is a lot of time considering you decided to comment on it just now. So not "not answering" is what made my suspicions grow, it was the time it took you to react to the plan.
