Why the Bourbon arc could be the penultimate arc

[Kudo Shinchi]

(WARNING: The following contains MAJOR spoilers from the manga, so if you are not up to date on the current chapters or are an anime-only watcher, DO NOT READ.)

I know, I know, I'm basically saying DC will end soon, and virtually everyone is skeptical of that. However, recent events in the manga and Gosho's responses in certain interviews lead me to believe that Gosho does plan to go ahead and finish the series soon. My list of reasons are below. (Also, when I say soon, i mean around 4-7 years, no literally this year or the next)

Gosho’s answers
Gosho has stated that he wants to retire when he’s Agasa’s age, which is around 52, which is pretty close to Gosho’s current age. More so, Gosho has stated that DC will not exceed 160 volumes, but what’s even more interesting is Gosho’s apparent remark that he “is not sure” if DC will reach 100 volumes. Now, if Gosho was really planning to stretch his manga on forever, would he really make these comments? His uncertainty regarding DC’s 100 volumes shows, at least to me, that he’s planning for an end soon. Besides, Gosho has decided on an end, so he does plan to finish DC someday.

The Breaking of DC’s status quo: The advancement in relationships
Specifically in the Bourbon arc a lot of progress has been made in terms of the different relationships going on. After hundreds of chapters o fteasing Sato and Takagi’s relationship, they finally confirmed their feelings for each other and are in a steady relationship. Even more remarkable is the end of Shiratori and Takagi’s rivalry, a conflict that was present for hundreds of chapters as well. Shiratori confessed to Kobayashi about his feelings in one of the fastest developments of DC, thus putting any doubts to rest. Gosho intends to write a marriage case between Takagi and Sato someday. Besides all this, Shinichi finally confessed to Ran and both are aware of their feelings.
The point is, Gosho simply kept the drama/love stories going for a long time before finally beginning to give some closure to them. Yes, he did start another love story with Chiba and Naeko, but that one can be wrapped up pretty quickly. I think it was meant as a temporary replacement for Takagi and Sato’s story, which is largely resolved. The point is, I think that Gosho is gradually finishing up these plotlines. Why, I wonder?

The Breaking of DC’s status quo: The existence of an Org member close to Conan daily
By having Amuro stay as Kogoro’s apprentice, Gosho is essentially keeping Amuro present in all of Kogoro’s subsequent cases, a truly major development in regards to how Gosho usually does things. In all the arcs before this one, after the grand revelations, things would go back to normal for Conan until the next threat comes along. Instead, Gosho had Amuro, a member of the Black Organization, come back to remain Kogoro’s apprentice, ensuring frequent contact between him and Conan. Amuro has already begun to suspect Conan. One could argue that a Black Org. member close to Conan already happened with Vermouth as Araide, but after Vermouth’s reveal she left Conan alone. Moreso Vermouth isn’t very loyal at all, and she doesn’t want to hurt Conan and hasn’t reported him despite knowing his true identity, so Conan’s safe. Amuro, however, is smarter than Vermouth and has proven to be very loyal, reporting Sherry to Vermouth as soon as he tracked her down. Having a member this dangerous stay close to Conan in his daily life is bad and only foreshadows disaster in the future. DC’s status quo has never been broken like this before.

Ran’s suspicions
We’ve had several Ran suspicion arcs, and they all end the same way: Conan comes up with something to trick Ran and avert her suspicions and the status quo is preserved. Gosho has been dropping hints over the course of the Bourbon arc that hint towards a coming suspicion arc. I think there’s reason to believe this one could end differently.
I noticed that pretty much all the previous Ran suspicion arcs came suddenly, as in they built up over a single case and were resolved within that same case or the one right after. The only exception would be the one in Desperate Revival, which was simply a result of Ran not losing her suspicions the previous time in the first place. This one, though, has been building up since Ran first mentioned to Kazuha her question about Shinichi’s fingerprints on Heiji’s omamori. From then, Gosho dropped more hints as well. For example, Ran’s casual reference to DNA testing being used to reveal a person in disguise when she was talking with Conan in Ch. 794 is one. The most obvious foreshadowing came in Ch. 814 when Conan messed up and referred to Yuusaku as his dad in front of Ran. She grabbed him and looked into his face to reassure herself he was Conan, saying, “Conan-kun, right?” The chapter’s name is even derived from this exchange. The point is, no other Ran suspicion arc has ever received this much build-up.
Even more significant than the foreshadowing is the way Gosho is setting it up. Ran knows that Heiji’s omammori, which she saw only Conan touch, was used to somehow prove the false Shinichi’s identity. That means Shinichi’s fingerprints are on it. If she gets access to the charm, she’ll have Shinichi’s fingerprints. All she needs is Conan’s fingerprints, something she can find easily, and compare them to confirm what she suspects (of course, I’m not saying Ran will be able to do this, just throwing it out there that it could be possible.) Also, in the Mouri Detective Agency case where the Conan solved the case over the phone, Ran was wondering how Shinichi got access to Conan’s phone. Lastly, Ran saw Conan use his sneakers to knock out one of the attackers in Ch. 814. To my knowledge, this is the first time Ran has seen Conan use them. Basically, unlike previous times, Ran has a whole arsenal of incriminating information that she can use against Conan. This huge and carefully calculated build-up seems to point to it leading to something climatic. If Ran is tricked again, it would be extremely anti-climatic. Besides, Gosho has hinted that something is preventing him from revealing Ran’s birthday; this might be because that’s the day Ran’s final suspicion arc will begin/conclude.

The bringing back of old plot points
One notable aspect of the Bell Train express arc was its bringing back of old unresolved mysteries like Itakura’s CD. What Elena told Haibara on those tapes was around 400 chapters previous was finally revealed, and the mystery of Vermouth’s youth came back up once again after not being addressed in the arcs that followed the Vermouth arc. So instead of introducing new elements and aspects to the story like the Kir arc did, the Bourbon arc is essentially Vermouth arc 2.0; it’s like a sequel that continues the unresolved plots from the Vermouth arc. I find it interesting that Gosho has finally made these mysteries, which have been unresolved for around a decade, become relevant to the current story once again. Seems to me that Gosho might be planning to wrap up some of these mysteries in preparation for the final Anokata arc.

The Bourbon arc’s climax
The Bell Tree Express, contrary to what many thought, did not end the Bourbon arc. Instead, it was more of a very major BO case but not the finale. Gosho chose to reveal the identities of the different characters before the arc’s climax. Why the change? Obviously many things remain unexplained, and with everyone’s identities in the open, Gosho can focus on explaining the other stuff and gearing up for what may be the most climatic finale of any arc in DC history so far. I think the Bourbon arc is going to feature some pretty major developments and could be a game-changer, especially it includes Ran’s suspicion arc and Akai (no longer Okiya) and Haibara’s long-awaited confrontation.
Conclusion
So those are my reasons. Agree? Disagree?

[Nix]

I'm sitting on the fence for this
I can't provide a novella-long answer, but I'll be brief.
I feel that too many mysteries aren't solved yet. The past relationships in the BO, such as Gin and Sherry, Amuro and Akai (but that's probably gonna be revealed), Vermouth and the Miyanos, Sherry's parents, the purpose/name/boss/location of BO, etc. I doubt Gosho is the type of writer who's going to leave mysteries unsolved by the end of the manga. He stated himself that he will write a happy ending, and geez, the whole point of a detective is solving things As for Amuro, I really think that he is hanging around for the Amuro Akai fight, which may be the climax of this arc. And who knows, Amuro might even be an ally in the end, like Vermouth.

This is unconvincing evidence, but Gosho did say in his latest interview that the major BO case will be next year (2014). And maybe a new member might be introduced. If he's still thinking about a new member, because really, there's only 7 members alive that we know of and this is the BO we're talking about, maybe he's not really ready for Anokata yet.

However, I think all your points make a lot of sense, but I don't want DC to end.

[Kudo Shinchi]

I'm glad you think I make good points! I agree there are a lot of unresolved stuff and it will take a while to resolve, but as I mentioned, I don't think it will end within the next year or so, but will gradually move towards a conclusion over the next maybe 4-7 years, which would be ample time to wrap up that stuff. If the final arc is as long or longer than the Bourbon arc, then Gosho should be able to resolve those mysteries in it.

On the new BO members: it's possible the next great BO confrontation Gosho mentioned will be the climax of the Bourbon arc and the beginning of the Anokata arc. The new BO members don't really need to have their own arc; fter all, the only BO members who have had their own arc are Vermouth, Kir, and Bourbon, and technically Haibara. The new members could be like Korn and Chianti; it makes sense Gosho would want more members in the final confrontation. It would be fitting for the final arc to begin on DC's 20th anniversary. The final arc could be the longest, in that case there'd be ample time to wrap up the story.

I love DC very much (it's my favorite anime/manga) but I really want to see it have an ending so it can be a whole, completed story. At the pace it's going, I'm worried it might not :/

[Jecka]

The new members could be like Korn and Chianti; it makes sense Gosho would want more members in the final confrontation.

We need more Korn!

[S.Vineyard]

@Gosho's answers: Also, he hinted  that there will be a Shinran kiss in the forseeable future. If this happens then the Shinichi/Ran status quo is completly broken. They would finally be a couple and as a couple things might get a lot more compicated. Plus the fact that for this Conan has to use the Anti-ATPX and we all know that Haibara would only give it to him when there is really a reason...

[Pmofmalasia]

@Gosho's answers: Also, he hinted  that there will be a Shinran kiss in the forseeable future. If this happens then the Shinichi/Ran status quo is completly broken. They would finally be a couple and as a couple things might get a lot more compicated. Plus the fact that for this Conan has to use the Anti-ATPX and we all know that Haibara would only give it to him when there is really a reason...

I think he just said it would happen at some point, not necessarily soon.  For most authors I would assume that if they mention it it's going to be soon, but given both the pace of DC and that a ShinRan kiss was practically inevitable anyway that might still be a ways off. 

[aly_angelflight]

@Gosho's answers: Also, he hinted  that there will be a Shinran kiss in the forseeable future. If this happens then the Shinichi/Ran status quo is completly broken. They would finally be a couple and as a couple things might get a lot more compicated. Plus the fact that for this Conan has to use the Anti-ATPX and we all know that Haibara would only give it to him when there is really a reason...

I think he just said it would happen at some point, not necessarily soon.  For most authors I would assume that if they mention it it's going to be soon, but given both the pace of DC and that a ShinRan kiss was practically inevitable anyway that might still be a ways off. 

Like... at the end.

[S.Vineyard]

Well, it also depends when the next Shinichi appearence will be. During the last 5 years it was during the X40+ cases. This time it will most likely delayed, because of the "late BO" case.  (I call it late, because it didn't happen in file 800, but in file 818. If the pattern was indeed delayed because this case, a new Shinichi appearence won't happen before the 860+ cases.)

@The End: Well, we also though for years that Shinichi will confess his love for Ran in the final case. But Gosho, as we saw two years ago, had others plans.

[Conan-chandesune]

I think you are on to something, but DC will take at least 5 years to wrap up. For sure.

P.S. A Shinran kiss would be awesome.

[saorin]

I like the points you made and I would really like to believe you are right, because even though I adore DC and have been doing so for many years since my childhood, it seriously needs to be wrapped up. Shows tend to worsen if they drag on for too long and don't manage to come to a satisfying end anymore. And I think nobody can deny that having no (real) plot development for years is kinda trying.
I'm not so sure about the "Amuro staying close to Conan" point as we still can't be entirely sure as to the loyalty of Bourbon (some connection to Takagi's mentor?), but especially the Ran-suspicion arguments seem pretty legit. The buildup is definitely there.

Even though 4 years is still one hell of a time period to end a show (xD), I guess I can't expect anything else in the time department.
I'd really love to see the ending within that time frame though.

On a side note: a pretty reliable factor should be the new movie announcement at the end of each movie  - or the lack thereof. I assume the manga will be running longer than the airing of the movies, so I think we can safely say that whenever the announcement of a new movie is missing, the end is drawing near. As long as that doesn't happen, I won't expect anything. =D

[Pmofmalasia]

I'm not so sure about the "Amuro staying close to Conan" point as we still can't be entirely sure as to the loyalty of Bourbon (some connection to Takagi's mentor?), but especially the Ran-suspicion arguments seem pretty legit. The buildup is definitely there.

Well we know that Amuro sides with the BO in the case of Shiho, even going against Vermouth (Mystery Train arc, Vermouth tries to blow her up while Amuro tries to save her).  So since finding Shiho would involve Conan, he's definitely a threat.  Plus, it seems like he doesn't know why Vermouth wants him to protect Conan/Ran, if he were to find out that Conan is Shinichi then he'd probably go against Vermouth, but I obviously can't say for sure.

[Kudo Shinchi]

I like the points you made and I would really like to believe you are right, because even though I adore DC and have been doing so for many years since my childhood, it seriously needs to be wrapped up. Shows tend to worsen if they drag on for too long and don't manage to come to a satisfying end anymore. And I think nobody can deny that having no (real) plot development for years is kinda trying.
I'm not so sure about the "Amuro staying close to Conan" point as we still can't be entirely sure as to the loyalty of Bourbon (some connection to Takagi's mentor?), but especially the Ran-suspicion arguments seem pretty legit. The buildup is definitely there.

Even though 4 years is still one hell of a time period to end a show (xD), I guess I can't expect anything else in the time department.
I'd really love to see the ending within that time frame though.

On a side note: a pretty reliable factor should be the new movie announcement at the end of each movie  - or the lack thereof. I assume the manga will be running longer than the airing of the movies, so I think we can safely say that whenever the announcement of a new movie is missing, the end is drawing near. As long as that doesn't happen, I won't expect anything. =D

It's good to here you think I have good arguments

@the movies: I actually think it's likely the movies will outlast the manga. It's possible the anime team for DC would want to continue it in the anime, sort of like a spin-off series, after its end (if it ever ends.) So the movie announcements might not matter.

@Amuro: The thing about him is that he's already suspecting Conan, and in the most recent chapter he's been in (843) he's finally tracked down Agasa's house. It's clear the whole pupose of that DB case was to have Amuro find out where Agasa's house. Gosho could use this set-up to begin some major. For some reason Amuro wants to investigate Agasa, and he is already suspicious of Conan. With someone as smart as him, the smartest BO agent to ever get this near to Conan, it's only a matter of time before Conan's, and possibly Haibara's true identities are uncovered.
Of course, the question of his loyalty is very important; but from what we've seen of Amuro so far, despite being a bit of a gray character with some goodness clearly in him, it seems he's loyal to the BO. He did not hesitate to report Shiho to Vermouth after tracking seeing the video of her appearance at Gunma , and he most likely knew doing so would eventually result in Shiho's death; also, he didn't seem very concerned after Shiho apparently blew up in his face on the Mystery Train, he was more concerned about the silhouette of Akai he saw then. So, in short, Amuro is still quite dangerous. If he does figure out who Conan is, either he

a) keeps silent about it/ allies with Conan
b) reports it to the BO
c) is killed/disabled before he can carry out option b.

Choice b happening would probably result in the end of DC, which I think is too soon. If Amuro stays silent he'll be another Vermouth, which IMO would be pointless. I think choice c could be used to start a final arc though. Maybe Amuro could find out and not directly report it to the BO but leaves some sort of clue for them somehow before he is disabled which would eventually lead the whole BO to the Mouri Detective Agency. Just an idea I'm throwing out there.

[Fennec]

These are all very good points. On the aspect of romance, it's nice to see someone resolve a romance subplot without waiting until the very end, so we can actually see the relationship in progress. So many series will end with two characters, major or minor, finally agreeing to give dating a shot. This is a refreshing change of pace, and may be part of why Gosho is advancing some of them so much. However, if you look at Shin/Ran and Kazuha/Heiji, you'll see their development isn't at that point yet. Conan/Shinichi has obvious restrictions that prevent him and Ran from advancing their relationship too much, but as the main characters of such a long story, it's not too strange they would confess their feelings more in the middle. It adds to the tension between Conan and Ran. Kazuha and Heiji, though, are almost always together and yet have made very little progress. They'll probably be one of the biggest "end-is-near" warning flags. ^_^

Ran's suspicions seem like they're well-founded. Of course, it could also just be fans of a long-running series looking for a single sign of plot advancement. If you're desperate enough, you'll take what you can get. Of course, with Detective Conan, those little hints can often prove to be correct, so there's that. I think at this point, though, Ran probably understands that there's something bigger going on; I mean, he's suddenly a little kid. There's not many explanations aside from magic. And he's made such a big deal of hiding it, it's clear he's not just doing it to get close to her. After all, they were already pretty close to begin with.

As for where the arc will go from here... I actually had a dream that Amuro was killed in a flood, and I thought to myself, "That's probably the only way to end his appearance without Conan being found out by the BO." However, I can't help but wonder if there are other ways and paths this arc can take. We're all focused on his investigation into Conan, but it could easily be a red herring for the readers as to how the arc will conclude. I mean, sure, he knows where Agasa lives now, but Subaru Okiya (or as I like to call him, Shubaru Akaiya) lives right next door. From what I've seen, he seems more interested in getting Akai than anything else. Honestly? I think he'd be willing to betray the organization to pursue Akai. This arc could easily go one of three ways:

1) It will be a straightforward development: he'll discover the truth about Conan, maybe about Ai, leading to a huge showdown with Vermouth probably thrown into the mix.
2) He will be derailed from his investigation into Conan by the discovery of some sort of definitive proof that Akai is, indeed, alive and end with a big showdown between them, possibly with Sera thrown into the fray. Of course Conan will be involved somehow, being the title character and all.
3) A combination of the other two, which is, honestly, the most likely scenario.

We can't be sure how Bourbon's appearance will end. Since Vermouth is concerned about Conan and Ran, she might end up shooting him if he finds out the truth. I can see Conan or Ran trying to help him as he dies, possibly revealing Conan's identity if it's the latter. Then he could be buried by his good friend, Officer Takagi the First.

Well, to wrap this up, on the note of the end being near... Well, with my luck, it wouldn't surprise me. I tend to get into a manga series literally right before they end. Seriously, it's happened so many times I might as well advertise myself as the Harbinger of the End. I'm pretty relieved to find an ongoing series that doesn't end one to six months after picking it up. But right now, I don't see too many signs pointing at a quickly impending end to the series. However, I do see a couple leading to the end of this particular arc... I think Gosho WILL wrap the series up within the next two or three years, though.

[Nix]

Just for clarification, the reason why Amuro is investigating Agasa is probably because he thinks Agasa is Akai with a fake identity. In the Detective Nocturne case, Ran mentions a 'Prof. Agasa' who invented the tracking glasses. And when they pass each other in their cars... Amuro gets the wrong idea. And from then on, he's been looking for this 'Professor' until now.
...just in case anyone was wondering

[S.Vineyard]

@Agasa: I will most likely lead into Amuro meeting Agasa and Okiya. Meeting Okiya might make him suspisious, since he might wonder why he was allowed to live in the Kudo mansion.

As for finding Haibara, Bourbon might not report it to the BO or Vermouth, since he wants her alive and he already was witness of Vermouth's determination to kill her.