Chekhov's theories about the plot

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Serinox » November 2nd, 2016, 4:45 pm

ginandjuice wrote:Change of topic, regarding Gin's age as mentioned in the pinned post, I was always under the impression that he was in his late 20s or in the 30s, because as the series progresses his features become more handsome and less... harsh in some ways. But in the drama Gin's actor look way older which made me wonder if he is meant to be quite old-ish?

Well, Shuichi in current time should be around 35, which I wouldn't have guessed from his appearance, so it might be bit difficult to estimate for Gin. But yeah, I would've guessed him into around that same age group, mid thirties.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Nemomon » November 3rd, 2016, 4:28 am

Look at Rei. Does he look like a 29 yo man? He looks like 22 yo at max. Gin must be around 40.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Tantei San » November 4th, 2016, 10:23 am

tbh Japanese and chinese people, you can't determine their ages easily.! Wonder what do they do or eat.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby ginandjuice » November 4th, 2016, 7:26 pm

Yikes, considering how suggestive Aoyama has been considering Shiho's and Gin's relation and her being 18-20, Gin being anything older than 35 would be gross.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Spimer » November 4th, 2016, 7:49 pm

@gindandjuice: We don't know exactly what that "relation" was to begin with. It could be mere harassment but maybe there never was any "physical" thing. Haibara fearing Gin could be because of his ruthless nature and Gin imaging her naked could be a display of his obsessive behavior, maybe because he hasn't gotten to "finish" her off.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby ginandjuice » November 4th, 2016, 8:29 pm

Yeah, by relation I didn't mean that they must've had anything emotional or physical going on, but the mere obsession (especially for someone who seem quite calm and non-caring) and imagining her naked is enough to make it gross if he's old.
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Chekhov's V2 APTX 4869 Theories

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » May 11th, 2017, 8:51 pm

Crossposting here from DCW since I don't think I am going to get too many on topic responses. Since the new plot developments with Kohji's death, I have very slowly worked on several APTX-related theory sections in prep for updating the main Chek's theories document.

The two main endeavors are 1) the Unknown Drug page alleging the existence of a drug older than APTX 4869, Silver Bullet, and the Miyanos, which is still in need of additional content, and 2) A theory that Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet which adds additional nuance to my APTX purpose theory and attempts to reconcile the other drug Shiho was asked to develop and why the Black Organization is using an untested drug for killing.

I would very much like it if someone would "beta read" and make suggestions regarding the second theory (the X-Contamination theory). Here it is posted below.

Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet

It is known that the APTX 4869 of 17 years ago was used for murder[1] and that Shiho's current version of APTX 4869 is being used for the same purpose.[2] It is unlikely that the generally cautious Black Organization would use a custom drug for murder if they knew it had a chance of shrinking the victim and leaving them alive. It also doesn't make much sense that they would kill people using an in-development drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder[3] and which is suspected to have a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.

This contradiction can be explained by the Black Organization mistakenly operating on the assumption that Shiho recreated her parents' APTX 4869 (which may have been tested in the past and found to kill exclusively). It is known that a lab fire destroyed most of Elena and Atsushi's drug project research. Shiho had to piece their research together from fragments. It is certainly possible that damage from the fire destroyed certain context clues that would allow Shiho to figure out which research belonged to the APTX 4869 drug, and which belonged to Silver Bullet. In resurrecting her parents' work, Shiho mixed the research together. This hybrid is the modern APTX 4869.

Perhaps because the project took the name APTX 4869 rather than Silver Bullet and for the most part has similar deadly results, most of the Black Organization seems to have assumed that it is the same drug as before. Their ignorance can an least be partly explained by Shiho hiding certain results so that even executive members of the Organization were not aware APTX 4869 could cause de-aging.[4] It is possible Shiho may misinformed the Organization about the status of her recreation project, not having realized she had mixed the research until after the Organization intended to use it for killing.

This mix-up explains certain conversations, such as the one with Conan about APTX 4869's history which implied the existence over another drug beyond APTX 4869.

Haibara: And the fact that [Kohji Haneda's] name was on the list of victims who were given APTX 4869, I'd say there's a good chance that Asaka was one of the members of the Black Organization!
Conan: I don't get it. Kohji Haneda was killed 17 years ago. Then why is his name under mine in the list?
Haibara: Perhaps the person who compiled the list wasn't going by chronological order. Maybe it was sorted by blood type or something.
Conan: Wait a minute, so the drug that I was forced to take existed 17 years ago? And you are its creator? How old are you really?
Haibara: How rude. I've told you before. I am 18 now. Perhaps it was an early prototype of a drug made by my parents. The information for the drug that I created was mostly taken from the burnt remains of the data that my parents left behind.
Conan: Burnt remains? What do you mean?
Haibara: Well, the research lab that my parents worked in caught fire, and along with them, most of their research materials were burnt. I heard from the other members of the Organization that it was an accident.
Well, what I was really ordered to make was another drug, however...
—Manga Volume 89, File 11 (948), Pages 3-4: "The Clenched Scissors"

In this conversation, it makes the most sense that the Black Organization was hoping that Shiho would not work on the prototype APTX 4869 used to kill in the past and instead recreate her parents' final project Silver Bullet which seems to have fallen through (perhaps by catching fire) before being completed. They gave these orders unaware that Shiho actually did what they wanted her to do, which in turn explains why Shiho said that she did not intend to create a murder drug[3] and protested that the drug was used for killing. Instead, the Black Organization seems to mistakenly believe that Shiho had reassembled the prototype APTX 4869 of the past.

This type of development would be so very in character for Gosho, since it involves a significant degree of failing to share information and lots of secret keeping between supposed allies.

[1] Kohji Haneda's murder
[2] Gin's attempted murder of Shinichi, Pisco's backup murder plot
[3] a b Manga Volume 18, File 9 (179), page 9: "The Girl Made Of Lies"
[4] Shinichi's survival for sure, and possibly the one shrunken mouse which was tested. The most significant proof is that no one has figured out Shiho shrank to escape her handcuffs and the locked room. Someone aware of shrinking results could easily extrapolate what happened.

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Spimer » May 12th, 2017, 10:29 am

Very interesting reading.

Yes, from all evidence and statements insofar it does look like the APTX project hasn't achieved the real purpose it was supposed to have.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Tantei San » May 13th, 2017, 1:14 pm

Oh my god ! Chekhov....
Anyway, lets get in to it !! after a long time a post !
i agree with each and every word of yours for say.. but here my points.

The APTX-4869 from 17 years ago probably used in the kohji haneda death case and i am certain of it one way or another and that its main purpose is still something else which either will be hinted or well be told by vermouth, RUM, or The Boss itself. Also, to think that, maybe Gin used his relationship as a disguise to get his hands on the APTX that Shiho was making you know when she was somewhere else he took away.. but one can contradict that Gin specifically said, " Let's try this new Drug that the organisation gave us". To think that an underdeveloped drug will be out of human test etc, is some what hard to digest and for that purpose i would say either it was a secret or the organisation did start everything very early or in a hurry..probably the Boss asked so, nonetheless besides if i am not wrong and that the drug made by shiho was not tested AT ALL, it is easy to say that Shinichi could be the first target or victim of the drug and hence there is no sign or reason for the knowledge of "Shrinking Effect" of the drug be known.. Also, seeing it .. and given that how some members came very close to find not shinichi but haibara suggest that some how they are getting a hint of what actually is happening and suggested by Gosho himself that there are some uncertainties inside the BO right now..means something..what, I don't know..let's see.
And as you said, that the BO doesn't looks so naive that they would use an under developed drug out opened, meaning that Yes, they have been misguided with the effects of the drug and that they still don't know about the effect of the drug, EXCEPT.. and ONLY EXCEPT RUM himself, given the fact that Maybe MARY was drugged after Shinichi itself, provides a leverage for BO to change there outlook towards kids.

Also, i would like to point out that ( May sound Absurd) but , it was never stated that the RESEARCH of Elena and Atsushi was digital or paper-ed, suggesting that maybe shiho really did not mix both the researches together also, she overtook the same project they were working on, so to mix what she created and what they made is pretty unruly to me. Besides, I think that the earlier APTX-4869 and 'Silver Bullet' are still the same project and maybe the reason it was given the name (which is still not stated how or why) is that when the APTX-4869 was tested on Vermouth(if she was a test subject) and she lived and somehow she was the one who gave the name Silver Bullet to APTX-4869 because lets face it the whole "APTX-4869" is a very difficult thing to pronounce and maybe the BO was lazy to say/write it. XD. Also, as stated that Vermouth is Boss's favourite (how so or why is not my concern right now) when she suggested the name , the Boss was pleased and maybe that's how it was named as Silver Bullet.

At one point i agree that the project named APTX-4869 mislead many members of the BO and thats why they were using it without knowing its Side/main effect.
But if i ain't wrong. shiho must've had a team of scientist working with her and they must have seen those outcome and whether or not she said them to or not to tell BO the results they would have forced them(scientists) to tell about the result once shiho went missing and the fact if that has happened then, Conan, Haibara and Mary are in danger :P And if she did misinformed the organisation about the effects of the drug it is possible that she doesn't wants them to know what could happen.. maybe elena and atsushi knew about the effects of the drug and the recording which shiho has was all about it, and that sums the reason why both of them tried to run away from BO leaving there children to somewhere else ( Spiderman anyone?) and then were killed by BO termed as "ACCIDENT".

I rest my case .. !
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Re: Chekhov's V2 APTX 4869 Theories

Postby bash7353 » May 14th, 2017, 9:18 am

What I find somewhat confusing about this theory, or maybe about the series so far more broadly, is that while it seems that the Black Organisation is trying to achieve immortality, Vermouth, a high-ranking member of that very organisation, appears to already have achieved that. That has never really made sense to me.

I find this theory quite interesting, but I haven't really been paying to close attention to all the clues in the series. There are suggestions to immortality like the "We can be both God and the Devil" quote, and to two separate drugs existing. I wonder, though, have we seen many suggestions that 'APTX 4869' and 'Silver Bullet' are actually different from one another and the latter relates to immortality? 'Silver Bullet' is one of those terms that is used for multiple things in this series. I find it a little bit hard to believe that it is Vermouth's nickname for Conan because he is shrunk when she seems to refer to Akai using the same term.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:This type of development would be so very in character for Gosho, since it involves a significant degree of failing to share information and lots of secret keeping between supposed allies.

I know a lot of people here feel tat way about the series in general, but I think in this case it makes sense to look at it slightly differently. I'm not sure Shiho can be considered an ally to the Black Organisation. Her family was a part of it, sure, but mostly they were interested in her scientific expertise. It would make sense to me that they may not have wanted to share certain things with her because they didn't want Shiho to ask too many questions. Maybe part of the problem with the parents was that they had moral concerns, so they killed them and are now hoping their daughter will continue the research.

I could imagine that the Black Organisation specifically orchestrated the fire which supposedly destroyed part of the initial research to give them a pretence to only selectively share information about that with Shiho when asking her to continue what her parents started. They may have wanted to make sure Shiho doesn't start objecting to her own research once she realises what it is she's developing. When you add to that that Shiho may have grown more and more suspicious of them and not let them know about the rat that shrunk or the children's clothes that went missing from Shinichi's house as a result, it's not that surprising if misunderstandings occur.

Technically, Shiho may have been a member of the Black Organisation, but that doesn't mean she shares their values and their goals.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Themaninarmor » May 14th, 2017, 11:14 am

Spimer wrote:Very interesting reading.

Yes, from all evidence and statements insofar it does look like the APTX project hasn't achieved the real purpose it was supposed to have.


Yes I agree. The proof for that is the existence of APTX victim list itself. What is the purpose of that list? Isn't it weird to list every APTX victim if it was meant to be a poison in the first place.

Maybe what Pisco said to Haibara about she have made a progress in developing the drug means she is one step closer to achieve the experiment goal.

And what @bash7353 mentioned... About be God and Devil thing... I agree with that.

Oh maybe we can find something from what all Vermouth said too, because if she was Jodie's father real killer, then maybe she is one of the early BO member and the only one beside anokata who know the BO's real goal.

Well.. that works if anokata never told anyone about BO's real goal except the early member, but my point is if that really happen, then the reason of Vermouth favoritism can be explained and also the reason for a bad connection and misunderstanding between the drug development member and another member like Gin or Rum(unless she/he didn't know the APTX effect).
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Re: Chekhov's V2 APTX 4869 Theories

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » May 17th, 2017, 9:25 pm

bash7353 wrote:What I find somewhat confusing about this theory, or maybe about the series so far more broadly, is that while it seems that the Black Organisation is trying to achieve immortality, Vermouth, a high-ranking member of that very organisation, appears to already have achieved that. That has never really made sense to me.


That's what led me to speculated that Vermouth was part of a one off incident they have been trying to replicate since:

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:Some other compound must have caused Vermouth's aging problem
If Vermouth's non-aging start date predates Silver Bullet and APTX 4869, then there must be an unmentioned compound that is responsible. While it seems to violate Occam's razor to suppose the existence of another drug, there are good reasons for doing so. Shiho said the project of the Organization concerning anti-aging began over 50 years ago. This implies there was some research effort that long ago. Whatever it was must have been lost, or a singular unrepeatable fluke, or else there would be no need for the Organization to hire the Miyanos. One could hypothesize that the Miyanos were called in to research Vermouth and created Silver Bullet/APTX 4869 from their analysis. That would help explain why Vermouth hates the Miyanos and their project.


bash7353 wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:This type of development would be so very in character for Gosho, since it involves a significant degree of failing to share information and lots of secret keeping between supposed allies.


I know a lot of people here feel tat way about the series in general, but I think in this case it makes sense to look at it slightly differently. I'm not sure Shiho can be considered an ally to the Black Organisation. Her family was a part of it, sure, but mostly they were interested in her scientific expertise. It would make sense to me that they may not have wanted to share certain things with her because they didn't want Shiho to ask too many questions. Maybe part of the problem with the parents was that they had moral concerns, so they killed them and are now hoping their daughter will continue the research.

I could imagine that the Black Organisation specifically orchestrated the fire which supposedly destroyed part of the initial research to give them a pretence to only selectively share information about that with Shiho when asking her to continue what her parents started. They may have wanted to make sure Shiho doesn't start objecting to her own research once she realises what it is she's developing. When you add to that that Shiho may have grown more and more suspicious of them and not let them know about the rat that shrunk or the children's clothes that went missing from Shinichi's house as a result, it's not that surprising if misunderstandings occur.

Technically, Shiho may have been a member of the Black Organisation, but that doesn't mean she shares their values and their goals.

I meant that line to be take as more of a general snark than anything serious. It's grey on my wiki page rather than black like the rest of the text, but I can probably do better to show I mean it only in a hokey sense. Still, your point about Shiho's loyalty and motivations is quite elegant.

As far as the fire goes, I like the idea of it being an accident that happened when the Miyanos tried to extract themselves, or Vermouth did it. I don't think the BO would have destroyed their own valuable work, or their own scientists.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Nemomon » May 18th, 2017, 12:30 am

I think a more interesting thing is how the drug supposed to kill. Isn't it strange that the BO too soon confirmed Shinichi's death? If no body is found, usually it takes years for a person to be considered dead. Before that it is considered missing. So, no body was found, no funeral was held (parents also don't look too sad), and the BO confirmed Shinichi dead. Unless the drug was meant to eliminate the body as well, and the BO from the start knew that a body will disappear as well. In this case it looks like that some people know how exactly the drug was meant to work.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » May 19th, 2017, 2:36 pm

Nemomon wrote:I think a more interesting thing is how the drug supposed to kill. Isn't it strange that the BO too soon confirmed Shinichi's death?
Actually, Shiho explained in her intro chapter that she made that call. She and some BO searched the house twice with her on the team because she was the drug's creator. She noticed the child clothes disappeared and suspected the truth, but marked Shinichi dead because she didn't want him killed before he could be studied I guess.
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Re: Chekhov's V2 APTX 4869 Theories

Postby bash7353 » May 20th, 2017, 5:37 pm

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:I meant that line to be take as more of a general snark than anything serious. It's grey on my wiki page rather than black like the rest of the text, but I can probably do better to show I mean it only in a hokey sense. Still, your point about Shiho's loyalty and motivations is quite elegant.


A lot of people criticise the failure to share information between various combinations of characters, and most of the time there are valid points to be made. That's why it doesn't seem too weird for someone to use this kind of argument. I do think, though, that that type of discussion could do with a bit more nuance, especially when it concerns characters whose true intentions have yet to be revealed.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:As far as the fire goes, I like the idea of it being an accident that happened when the Miyanos tried to extract themselves, or Vermouth did it. I don't think the BO would have destroyed their own valuable work, or their own scientists.


I'm not saying part of the research was actually destroyed. I'm suggesting that the Black Organisation wasn't telling the truth when it comes to the fire and the destruction. Maybe they made the whole thing up, or maybe they did actually cause a fire, in which case they obviously would have made sure their precious research wouldn't be lost.

We know the Miyanos died in what is described as an accident. But I'm sure I'm not the first one to theorise that they were actually killed by the Black Organisation. Despite their involvement in the Black Organisation, both Shiho and Akemi have been firmly portrayed as good guys. Given the kind of series this is, I would be surprised if their parents turned out to be evil. So maybe they refused to continue their research at some point, possible over moral concerns, so the Black Organisation decided to kill them and have Shiho continue instead. The fire could be the supposed accident which killed the Miyanos. That would actually connect a few bits quite nicely.
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描いた夢は叶わないことの方が多い
秀れた人を羨んでは自分が嫌になる
浅い眠りに押し潰されそう夜もある
優しい隣人が陰で牙を向いていたり

惰性で観てたテレビ消すみたいに生きる
ことを時々辞めたくなる

人生は苦痛ですか 成功が全てですか
僕はあなたにあなたに ただ逢いたいだけ
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