Chekhov's theories about the plot

Forum reserved for discussing specific points of the story—mostly from the manga. Be warned, these discussions will be current with the manga and will spoil many plot lines for anime-centric fans.
Zerozaki4869
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Zerozaki4869 » July 7th, 2017, 8:42 am

I need answer to several questions before supporting your theory, @Mtx because you're not answering some pivotal questions while assuming hypothesis a one too many.
1) Did the Miyano's SB research reached to a certain level where they could make capsules of the prototype and when the said capsule can be administered orally? If yes what is your source.

2) At the time of Kohji case were the Miyanos working on the SB project or something else? The "SB" research might took up the pace after Kohji was killed.

3) Why test subjects of SB list have to passed on to APTX(Haibara-Version) list? Do you have any prima-facie indication that it was the case?

4)BO wanted Haibara to make a different drug altogether. It can be interpreted that the APTX-(Haibara-Version) was just a by-product, the real goal was something else("SB"). What was the real goal?

5)Why SB's prototype needs to have the same killing potential as APTX? If it was, then where is the source?

6) Do you really have any info about the drug being administered on Kohji?


What from you theory I find that it fails to answer these questions while needlessly assuming Hypotheses(Like SB's prototype was used on Haneda, SB kill list ==APTX kill list, SB's prototype has same deadly potential which APTX-Haibara-version has, "SB" got to the capsulating plus orally administer-able phase before haneda Kohji was murdered) which puts your theory in the unlikely zone. For more info. Google Occam's razor.

But I can't use Occam's razor on Check's theory. It doesn't assume these many unverified claims. Thus making itself a high probability speculation.
MeiTanteixX
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 7th, 2017, 9:27 am

Zerozaki4869 wrote:1) Did the Miyano's SB research reached to a certain level where they could make capsules of the prototype and when the said capsule can be administered orally? If yes what is your source.
We don't know. we just know that there was a 17-year-old prototype that Haibara suspected to be her parents'. Whether it's SB prototype or Parent's version of APTX prototype, we don't know.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:2) At the time of Kohji case were the Miyanos working on the SB project or something else? The "SB" research might took up the pace after Kohji was killed.
They died not long after Shiho was born. Shiho is 18, so I'm leaning towards the "accident" happening before the Kohji case.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:3) Why test subjects of SB list have to passed on to APTX(Haibara-Version) list? Do you have any prima-facie indication that it was the case?
If current APTX was created with SB materials remains(therefore attributing some of its functionalities in the prototype, like killing, thus the names can be documented in the same list), and if the BO was trying to trick Sherry into creating something that the parents never originally set out to do, then yeah, I think it would be within their interest to change the label of anything that would suggest that the parents were mainly working on a different drug than Sherry's.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:4)BO wanted Haibara to make a different drug altogether. It can be interpreted that the APTX-(Haibara-Version) was just a by-product, the real goal was something else("SB"). What was the real goal?
From my interpretation, it's that unlike what her parents were working on(Silver Bullet/"dream drug"), BO wanted her to work on something else(APTX/"foolish non-dream-like drug").

Zerozaki4869 wrote:5)Why SB's prototype needs to have the same killing potential as APTX? If it was, then where is the source?
It's not that it "needs" to have it, it's that it "could be" the one that originally had those "kill and disappear" effects(hence being described as "terrifying" by Elena). then, after Sherry used SB material remains in the creation of APTX, those prototype effects were passed on.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:6) Do you really have any info about the drug being administered on Kohji?
The only info we have is what was mentioned by Haibara. That it's a prototype that was created by her parents.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:What from you theory I find that it fails to answer these questions while needlessly assuming Hypotheses(Like SB's prototype was used on Haneda, SB kill list ==APTX kill list, SB's prototype has same deadly potential which APTX-Haibara-version has, "SB" got to the capsulating plus orally administer-able phase before haneda Kohji was murdered) which puts your theory in the unlikely zone.
I don't think you can expect anyone to find answers that Gosho hasn't given us. My theory is my interpretation, and they certainly don't contradict anything.
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Zerozaki4869
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Zerozaki4869 » July 7th, 2017, 1:27 pm

Your assertions seem contradictory,
In answering my 3rd question you're resorting to the premise that "That BO wanted her to think that she's just furthering their(Miyanos') research." but then Haibara would make a mistake in her research because the goals were not stated perfectly. Also she seems to think "They wanted me to develop a different drug." Why she thinks that? (Because the research goal and APTX result were different. So haibara knew from the beginning that APTX in its current Avatar is not the goal of the research.) Which contradicts your assertion.

You seemingly think that Kohji case had happened after the laboratory arson/accident. So the question is the formulas is already destroyed, there was none to go with it(Like Haibara) how was the stuff which was used on Kohji was produced? If mass produced poisons were already used by BO on various targets then why a high ranking member like Gin don't have any knowledge of it?

You are pinning your hopes on the meaning of terrifying=frightening, but when terrifying also means hair-raising. The results could have been hair-raising. What I'm saying if killing and then disappearing without a trace was intermediate step of the "Dream-drug" would it be rational to use the same formula to create an invisible poison? Who knows if a cross-happens?
But it's more rational to create a poison from a sure-shot Poison(APTX version-1).

I'm not expecting anyone to come-up with answers which are unanswered by Gosho, but assuming stuff while not answering the relevant question makes a theory unlikely. So I would rather wait a bit more, while Chekovs theory doesn't force a definite answer on these questions, but your's does.
In the perspective of probability Chekov's theory holds good each and everyone of these partinent question because it doesn't hinge on a specific answer of the said questions. But your's does.

Think of this experiment(can even write a simulation in C++/Java/R/Python), create Six dices, and two Hypotheses( A1 and A0). A1 will be true when all dices show 6 on the upward faces and A0 would be true if an independent dice(7th) will show up an even number.
Now repeat this stuff for 10,000 times and check the number of times A1 has appeared and A0 has appeared. You'll get your answer.

TBH nothing against your theory, it's quite interesting(Though very unlikely yet can be true) but it assumes a lot, so I would rather wait a further one or two revelations.
MeiTanteixX
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 7th, 2017, 6:35 pm

Zerozaki4869 wrote:Your assertions seem contradictory,
In answering my 3rd question you're resorting to the premise that "That BO wanted her to think that she's just furthering their(Miyanos') research." but then Haibara would make a mistake in her research because the goals were not stated perfectly.
You seem to be misunderstanding something. Haibara had a perfectly stated goal, as she mentioned. it's to create something that is not a "dream" drug(like "raising the dead") but something foolish that most would see no benefit in(File 384). My reasoning is that BO was most likely deceiving her into thinking that that was the Miyano's goal for their drug research(rather than what it actually was, a "dream drug").

Zerozaki4869 wrote:Also she seems to think "They wanted me to develop a different drug." Why she thinks that? (Because the research goal and APTX result were different. So haibara knew from the beginning that APTX in its current Avatar is not the goal of the research.) Which contradicts your assertion.
Again, you seem to be misunderstanding things. She thinks that because she found out from the tape that her parents were developing a "dream" drug, which clearly contradicts the drug that she said she was developing(Which I referenced above, File 384). In other words, the BO wanted Haibara to develop a different drug(APTX), unlike her parents' "dream" drug(SB), by using SB-research-material remains for its development.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:You seemingly think that Kohji case had happened after the laboratory arson/accident. So the question is the formulas is already destroyed, there was none to go with it(Like Haibara) how was the stuff which was used on Kohji was produced? If mass produced poisons were already used by BO on various targets then why a high ranking member like Gin don't have any knowledge of it?
those could have easily been leftover prototypes(after the "accident") that the BO kept around for missions. Gin's knowledge is irrelevant to this topic. Regardless of what the prototype was 17 years ago, Gin's knowledge is still questionable. Based on his words and the whole Rum circumstance, we can assume that he knows about a prototype from 17 years ago, and ofc about Sherry's newly developed drug.
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Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Chekhov MacGuffin
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Straight answer pls, or we change to a "Does Akai shave his armpits or just not grow any armpit hair?" debate thread.

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 8th, 2017, 1:01 am

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:And again, your theory that APTX 4869 and the its kill list was actually a Silver Bullet its kill list 17ya isn't convincing. You have stated it, but you haven't supported it. Your theory offers no advantage over the default yet adds a layer of complexity and lies that must be untangled for the sake of the readers later.
This whole APTX and SB debate/info has always been based off of interpretations from vague comments and conversations. Your so called default is also assumptions based on interpretations that haven't been solidified.
I think the APTX kill list being the APTX kill list sounds like a straightforward default option to me!
But less flippantly, I am justified in claiming the default option is "APTX was used to kill Kohji and Amanda 17 years ago" because that is clearly how the conversation between Conan and Ai presented it in 948p3-4. (panel linked below) Remember that in debate, the burden of proof falls on the claimant who challenges a perceived status quo. Extending this concept to theories, it means that any twists that challenge the surface interpretation of the facts need to demonstrate what value they add.
Because it's easier to show an example than go on telling, I challenged 948p3-4's status quo with my cross-contamination theory: I claimed that APTX 17ya and APTX modern are not the same drug and that Ai mixed up Silver Bullet into APTX modern. The value it adds is resolving 2 apparent contradictions. (1: Why the usually cautious Org would feel comfortable killing people using the in-development modern APTX drug which is not 100% effective. 2. Why the Org would kill people using a drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder and which is suspected to have a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.)
So, MeitanteixX, I read through this big post, and while I somewhat appreciate you explaining your general thoughts to me, it seems like you are using a massive info dump to avoid directly addressing the issue I raised about what advantages your relabeling theory has. It's very frustrating to continue responding to you when you aren't responding to me on point.

While I will address what you wrote point by point, please do not let those details overshadow my main critique of your idea*: you have failed to justify it by showing added value over the default.

*that Silver Bullet was a killing drug used to assassinate Kohji and Amanda and its deaths were then edited by the Org to be attributed to APTX before the list made it to Sherry.
MeiTanteixX wrote:Why do I think SB prototype was the one that was doing the killing 17 yrs ago? It's very simple, and doesn't really need big leaps. Just based on the MT revelation and Haibara's hidden thoughts about her parents and BO's different agendas in File 948, it's not hard to make my conclusion.

These leaps are the part that should be explained in detail. It is pretty obvious from our past dealings that the two of us have very little in common when deciding what constitutes a strong and reasonable theory, so I can't easily see things from your perspective.

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Spoiler: Extra background info
What has been the ongoing status quo regarding the research of her parents before MT(File 821)?

In File 242, Pisco name-dropped Haibara's parent's research involvement in the BO and how they talked a lot about the research while it was still in development(what research he was referring to was still ambiguous, but the natural conclusion was the only thing we knew at that time, APTX research). He also said that her parents would have been proud of her for developing the drug this far(meaning that her parents research was at least similar enough that it shared the same development stages as APTX research).

In File 384, Conan said that Haibara had mentioned that she took over her parents research(which ofc is based on Haibara's knowledge at that time). She then reveals that APTX never had a goal that of a "dream" drug, like "raising the dead", and that it was something foolish, and that majority would not see the benefit of its intended effect.

In File 423, we found out that Atsushi's ideas was being backed up(by BO) and that he was gonna move into a larger research facility(what research ideas he had is ambiguous as well).

In File 427, we see that Gosho was setting up a hidden development regarding her parent's research and that Haibara found out about it at that moment.

In File 434, Vermouth mentions that her parents took over the foolish research(referring to APTX, which Haibara also referred to as "foolish", due to its purpose). This implies that her parents made the decision to take over the APTX research, from Vermouth's perspective(but whether they willingly did it or not, or if they were fully committed to go through it, is not specified), naturally however, we would conclude that they willingly made that decision, since we were under the impression that the Miyano research, that was still under development, that Pisco mentioned(that would make Shiho's parents proud if progressed) was also APTX research(the only research we knew about at that time).

In File 821, we get what I personally see as the biggest info drop regarding the Miyano research that her parents willingly pursued. We found out about the information that Haibara has kept to herself since File 427 and it reveals that her parents were working on a "terrifying drug", which the labmates referred to as a "dream drug", and that they were putting their hopes on it and were calling it "Silver Bullet".

- The description "dream drug" alone clearly contradicts the drug that Haibara had mentioned that she was creating in File 384. This means that SB and APTX are two different drugs (meaning that the BO and the Miyano had two different agendas).
I think it is important to be aware that the italicized consists of two rather reaching conclusions. The first assumption you are making is that the two drugs, APTX and Silver Bullet, have different agendas, rather than being part of the same overall agenda but using different methods and thus having different effects. (Complete hypotheticals: A de-aging drug and an immortality drug, a de-aging drug and an aging drug, etc.) The second assumption is assuming that the Miyanos carried out an agenda separate than the BO's, with the unspoken implication you are making that the two drugs reflect two very different intentions.

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Spoiler:
- The Miyano research that Pisco was referring to was something that the Miyano's cared about(hence making them proud if it was progressed), so with this new information, it highly implies that Pisco was talking about the Silver Bullet research, the research that her parents were putting their hopes on(not APTX).

- This also implies that the research ideas that Atsushi had, and that were backed up by the BO(File 423), were likely regarding the development of a "dream drug", Silver Bullet.
This is another set of assumptions, that Atsushi came into the Org with ideas to make a certain kind of drug, and that these ideas and this one drug were the only ones after 11-12 years of work that they would be proud of Ai advancing.

MeiTanteixX wrote:- In other words, we don't know what the Miyano's thought about the "foolish" research(APTX) that Vermouth claimed they took over in File 434(or if they even intended to progress it).
You seem to be trying to imply the Miyano parents were disconnected from APTX because we haven't heard their opinions of APTX on tape. You intend to sideline Ai and Vermouth's testimony (dolls, showdown, kohji) as not good enough.

MeiTanteixX wrote:- This also means that Haibara's information about her taking over her parent's research(File 384) wasn't completely truthful, since it [APTX] wasn't the research that we know for a fact her parents were dedicated for during development(SB).
Again you seem to be trying to divorce APTX from the Miyano parents by assigning them Silver Bullet and Ai APTX like there is a one drug per scientist group rule. Between the lines, your line of logic is that the parents did not work on APTX because they worked on Silver Bullet. I believe it should be obvious that this is not a wise assumption.

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Spoiler:
Elena then follows her sentence by saying that she and her husband have to leave their daughters in order to complete the research(as if there was consequences to them completing it within the BO).

- Haibara regretting APTX's creation(right after Elena's statement) due to her not understanding that it was something that shouldn't be made is indirectly indicating that she believes that her parents were planning on leaving to finish SB elsewhere because they didn't want the BO to use it for their own bad agenda(which in this case would be the creation of a different drug, APTX 2.0). This interpretation fits well with why she would break down in tears, since Haibara has been doing the thing that her parents were willing to sacrifice their daughters for in order to avoid doing.

- Elena calling it a "terrifying drug" further indicates SB's dangerous potential if it fell into the wrong hands.

In File 948, Haibara mentions that the 17-year-old prototype drug was most likely her parents prototype drug(which at the moment is ambiguous what drug research she is referring to).
The conversation clearly refers to APTX - in the context of the APTX Conan was forced to take and in the context of the APTX that was used to kill Kohji and Amanda. A pill of APTX is literally the background of the relevent panel. It is clear from the conversation that Ai thinks APTX 4869 was used 17ya in the Kohji case and recently on Shinichi.
Spoiler: panel
Image

MeiTanteixX wrote:Since we know that SB and APTX share the same development stages(based on Pisco's remark in File 242)
I'm not even sure what this means. Can you rephrase?

MeiTanteixX wrote:,and since Haibara said that her parents research-material remains(most likely SB remains) were involved in the development of APTX 2.0(File 948), test subjects from SB list can be passed on to the APTX list(obviously likewise with the older APTX versions, which I'm generalizing as "APTX 1.0").
The assumption here is that Silver Bullet was used on human test subjects, including assassination targets like Amanda.

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Spoiler:
After mentioning that the BO told her that her parents' death was an accident, Haibara then goes on thinking to herself that what they(BO) wanted her to make was a different drug, which again, goes in line with the established description contradiction between APTX and SB(something she has yet to tell Conan and Agasa).


After exhausting myself through all this, the conclusion I wanted to make is that her parent's SB research(which has been the focus point for the Miyano's research overall) and that we know they were dedicated for, is more likely to be the drug that had useful prototype remnants 17 years ago, unlike APTX research(which is doubtful if they even made good progression to
I get the conclusion that SB may have been more promising than APTX, but are you actually trying to imply that only one drug's research fragments may have been found after the fire and that only SB would have undergone testing and generated a paper trail?

MeiTanteixX wrote:, since they wanted to leave and avoid supporting the BO's agenda). Also, considering that Elena called it "terrifying", it's possible that they already had evidence to its terrifying capabilities in the form deadly prototypes, that was being used at least 18 years ago.
Keeping in mind Silver Bullet has not been confirmed to have been tested on anyone and there are other reasonable ways of interpreting "terrifying" - aiming to make a drug that can de-age people into children could be described this way.

MeiTanteixX wrote: Overall, from a narrative standpoint, it makes sense for Gosho to involve the SB prototypes in the Kohji story, since it will become the transition for us to find out more about its true purpose, Elena's "leaving"(Mary?) and the Miyano's accident, before we dive into the true purpose of APTX and the Boss' goal.
This one short sentence right here, 1089 words later, is your only attempt to justify the value of your theory. "It would be convenient for Silver Bullet to be a killer drug, and the list was swapped, etc. because I think it would make the plot smoother." I'm 0% buying this. If you want Silver Bullet in the plot, Mary shrinking, being Elena's sister, and backstory there is enough to bring SB in.

In conclusion, go back to the top of this post and read the bolded part again.
Zerozaki4869
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Zerozaki4869 » July 8th, 2017, 2:13 am

I think @MTX, you're misunderstanding my gripe. let me give an example, "Suppose you're an artist who does portraits. Now I give you an order to make a portrait of say Chekov, now my real goal is to create a portrait of Chekov but I give you the remnants of a portrait of Kor to work on."
Your answer is just that, which I won't buy.

You don't realize my gripe again. "Suppose after the portrait was made, you realized that there is something amiss. Like the Portrait seems to have brown hair and let's assume Chekov had Platinum-colored hair. Which I told you before making the portrait. Only then you will realize that this portrait wasn't the real goal."
Was the usage/effect of SB got ever mentioned in the tape??

Did you perform the experiment, of which I told you. If you did that you would realize that forcing too much of a condition on unknown variable lowers the likelyhood.
MeiTanteixX
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Re: Straight answer pls, or we change to a "Does Akai shave his armpits or just not grow any armpit hair?" debate thread

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 8th, 2017, 6:59 am

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote: I think the APTX kill list being the APTX kill list sounds like a straightforward default option to me!
But less flippantly, I am justified in claiming the default option is "APTX was used to kill Kohji and Amanda 17 years ago" because that is clearly how the conversation between Conan and Ai presented it in 948p3-4. (panel linked below) Remember that in debate, the burden of proof falls on the claimant who challenges a perceived status quo. Extending this concept to theories, it means that any twists that challenge the surface interpretation of the facts need to demonstrate what value they add.
I might not have fully understood what kind of value you are referring to. Based on your remark to the later part of my post...
This one short sentence right here, 1089 words later, is your only attempt to justify the value of your theory.

...I'm gonna assume that this kind of answer...
it makes sense for Gosho to involve the SB prototypes in the Kohji story, since it will become the transition for us to find out more about its true purpose, Elena's "leaving"(Mary?) and the Miyano's accident, before we dive into the true purpose of APTX and the Boss' goal.
...is in line with the kind of answer you are looking for. In that case, if I were to add to it, another layer to why I think Gosho is involving the Miyano's prototype into the plot is because I'm suspecting that he's planning on introducing another prototype-side-effect victim, Asaka. We've had more than a good number of APTX-side-effect victims(Shinichi, Shiho, Mary), so I'm seeing this as Gosho's attempt to add one that represents the side-effects of the mysterious SB research, which again, would add to the transition of us finding out more about it's purpose(As for why I'm suspecting that Asaka might be an upcoming prototype-victim, I'll have to refer to my Kohji case and Rumi discussions). Keep in mind that this is to clarify my standpoint on why I(personally) see value in SB being the 17-year-old drug.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:Because it's easier to show an example than go on telling, I challenged 948p3-4's status quo with my cross-contamination theory: I claimed that APTX 17ya and APTX modern are not the same drug and that Ai mixed up Silver Bullet into APTX modern. The value it adds is resolving 2 apparent contradictions. (1: Why the usually cautious Org would feel comfortable killing people using the in-development modern APTX drug which is not 100% effective. 2. Why the Org would kill people using a drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder and which is suspected to have a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.)
Sorry but this threw me off a bit... where's the contradiction exactly?

1. Sherry had tested it on mice before it was used on Shinichi(the first guinea pig). like she said, all the results pointed to the effect of a perfect weapon(with the exception of one). When BO, or, to specify, Gin was using APTX, he was aware of its main effect. Why is your quick conclusion that the BO knew it wasn't 100% effective, rather than Gin simply not being aware of the other details(for whatever reason)? For BO to know about its imperfection as a weapon, wouldn't that mean that they had to have known about the shrinking side-effect(which we know would be contradictory)?

2. "A prototype for a drug" vs "the final version of a drug". Again, I see no contradiction. A prototype that was intended to have an "A" effect, but ultimately ended up having a "B" effect, which therefore is being used for a different purpose(that doesn't go along with "A" effect's purpose), is not contradictory.
(Side-note: Haibara said that it didn't have the effect of a "dream drug", so I'm not sure whose suspicion you are referring to(the fans?))

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:So, MeitanteixX, I read through this big post, and while I somewhat appreciate you explaining your general thoughts to me, it seems like you are using a massive info dump to avoid directly addressing the issue I raised about what advantages your relabeling theory has. It's very frustrating to continue responding to you when you aren't responding to me on point.
Actually, I deemed it necessary to go through everything from the beginning, because I've noticed that a lot of things from the old stuff have been interpreted from the same perspective as pre-SB-reveal, so I had to present where I'm coming from and why I arrived at where I am.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:These leaps are the part that should be explained in detail. It is pretty obvious from our past dealings that the two of us have very little in common when deciding what constitutes a strong and reasonable theory, so I can't easily see things from your perspective.
From my understanding, there's not much difference. the only difference was that you dismissed certain foreshadowing patterns as misdirection and that they couldn't be used as back-up for theories(since they don't rely on in-universe evidence)[Sorry for reviving this, or if I've misunderstood your earlier points, but I wanted to be clear on that].

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:- The description "dream drug" alone clearly contradicts the drug that Haibara had mentioned that she was creating in File 384. This means that SB and APTX are two different drugs (meaning that the BO and the Miyano had two different agendas).
I think it is important to be aware that the italicized consists of two rather reaching conclusions. The first assumption you are making is that the two drugs, APTX and Silver Bullet, have different agendas, rather than being part of the same overall agenda but using different methods and thus having different effects. The second assumption is assuming that the Miyanos carried out an agenda separate than the BO's, with the unspoken implication you are making that the two drugs reflect two very different intentions.
About the first assumption, based on Haibara's reaction and how she thought that "APTX shouldn't have been made" after thinking about the "dream drug" goal, that's the undertone I'm getting regarding her parent's intention, and how they wanted to leave because it conflicted with the BO's true intention(which is what Haibara has been trying to fulfill this whole time). As for the second one, I'm not sure how it differs from the first assumption, but to make things more clear, the current vision I have regarding all this is that BO's intention was to help the Miyano progress SB research so that it can be used as a key to progress their own research and reach their own "non-dream-like-drug" goal, like how Haibara eventually did(difference being that she used remains, instead of the complete thing).

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:- This also implies that the research ideas that Atsushi had, and that were backed up by the BO(File 423), were likely regarding the development of a "dream drug", Silver Bullet.
This is another set of assumptions, that Atsushi came into the Org with ideas to make a certain kind of drug, and that these ideas and this one drug were the only ones after 11-12 years of work that they would be proud of Ai advancing.
Well, considering that they wanted to "leave" in order to finish SB(which clearly would mean abandoning BO research), that's how I'm piecing things together(my implication). Again, points like these are vague and can lead to many interpretations(hence my point that nothing is solidified).

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:- In other words, we don't know what the Miyano's thought about the "foolish" research(APTX) that Vermouth claimed they took over in File 434(or if they even intended to progress it).
You seem to be trying to imply the Miyano parents were disconnected from APTX because we haven't heard their opinions of APTX on tape. You intend to sideline Ai and Vermouth's testimony (dolls, showdown, kohji) as not good enough.
Disconnected? if you mean that they weren't involved with it, then no. My point is that we know nothing concrete about their circumstance with APTX research development, unlike SB, simple as that.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:- This also means that Haibara's information about her taking over her parent's research(File 384) wasn't completely truthful, since it [APTX] wasn't the research that we know for a fact her parents were dedicated for during development(SB).
Again you seem to be trying to divorce APTX from the Miyano parents by assigning them Silver Bullet and Ai APTX like there is a one drug per scientist group rule. Between the lines, your line of logic is that the parents did not work on APTX because they worked on Silver Bullet. I believe it should be obvious that this is not a wise assumption.
I think you are jumping the gun on what you think I'm assuming. As I said, we have evidence of their dedication to SB, but nothing about APTX. Wanting to "leave" and finish SB is like them abandoning BO duties(APTX research). That doesn't mean that they didn't work on APTX(Which again, I never claimed), but that SB might've been their main/original goal. That's what I meant with "completely truthful". She was technically taking over a research that her parents took over("foolish" research), but it wasn't the one that was in-line with their personal goal("dream drug" creation, SB).

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:In File 948, Haibara mentions that the 17-year-old prototype drug was most likely her parents prototype drug(which at the moment is ambiguous what drug research she is referring to).
The conversation clearly refers to APTX - in the context of the APTX Conan was forced to take and in the context of the APTX that was used to kill Kohji and Amanda. A pill of APTX is literally the background of the relevent panel. It is clear from the conversation that Ai thinks APTX 4869 was used 17 ya in the Kohji case and recently on Shinichi.
Spoiler: panel
Image
My bad, sorry for the confusion. What I meant was that Ai made that conclusion based on the name being documented under the "APTX" labeled list. She wasn't certain(for obvious reasons). The truth behind that old "APTX" drug is yet to be confirmed(hence ambiguous).

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:Since we know that SB and APTX share the same development stages(based on Pisco's remark in File 242)
I'm not even sure what this means. Can you rephrase?
ok, SB and APTX being similar, but having different end-goals, would share similar development stages. For example, hypothetically speaking:
SB goal = longevity, APTX goal = aging-accelerator. Pisco said that her parents would be proud of her for taking APTX to the "shrinking" stage. For SB(longevity) to have a "Shrinking" stage during its development process also makes sense(since it's similar to the effect that it's trying to reach), similarly to how a paradoxical effect like "shrinking" becoming the side-effect to APTX also is reasonable.
So, this is assuming that Pisco was comparing Haibara's progress with APTX to her parents' progress with SB(and since that progression goes in the same direction as her parents' research, it would make them proud).

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:,and since Haibara said that her parents research-material remains(most likely SB remains) were involved in the development of APTX 2.0(File 948), test subjects from SB list can be passed on to the APTX list(obviously likewise with the older APTX versions, which I'm generalizing as "APTX 1.0").
The assumption here is that Silver Bullet was used on human test subjects, including assassination targets like Amanda.
Actually, this is not an assumption, but an explanation to how both SB and APTX would make sense if it was the 17-year-old prototype drug.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:After exhausting myself through all this, the conclusion I wanted to make is that her parent's SB research(which has been the focus point for the Miyano's research overall) and that we know they were dedicated for, is more likely to be the drug that had useful prototype remnants 17 years ago, unlike APTX research(which is doubtful if they even made good progression to
I get the conclusion that SB may have been more promising than APTX, but are you actually trying to imply that only one drug's research fragments may have been found after the fire and that only SB would have undergone testing and generated a paper trail?
No, actually, this has nothing to do with the burned remains after the accident, but rather about the leftover prototypes that BO was still using after the accident.

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:Keeping in mind Silver Bullet has not been confirmed to have been tested on anyone and there are other reasonable ways of interpreting "terrifying" - aiming to make a drug that can de-age people into children could be described this way.
Yeah, ofc there are other reasonable ways.

(Akai just doesn't grow any)
DC's Awesome Qoutes:
Spoiler:
Image
Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Chekhov MacGuffin
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Re: Straight answer pls, or we change to a "Does Akai shave his armpits or just not grow any armpit hair?" debate thread

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 8th, 2017, 3:31 pm

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:Remember that in debate, the burden of proof falls on the claimant who challenges a perceived status quo. Extending this concept to theories, it means that any twists that challenge the surface interpretation of the facts need to demonstrate what value they add.
I might not have fully understood what kind of value you are referring to. Based on your remark to the later part of my post...
This one short sentence right here, 1089 words later, is your only attempt to justify the value of your theory.

...I'm gonna assume that this kind of answer...
it makes sense for Gosho to involve the SB prototypes in the Kohji story, since it will become the transition for us to find out more about its true purpose, Elena's "leaving"(Mary?) and the Miyano's accident, before we dive into the true purpose of APTX and the Boss' goal.
...is in line with the kind of answer you are looking for. In that case, if I were to add to it, another layer to why I think Gosho is involving the Miyano's prototype into the plot is because I'm suspecting that he's planning on introducing another prototype-side-effect victim, Asaka. We've had more than a good number of APTX-side-effect victims(Shinichi, Shiho, Mary), so I'm seeing this as Gosho's attempt to add one that represents the side-effects of the mysterious SB research, which again, would add to the transition of us finding out more about it's purpose(As for why I'm suspecting that Asaka might be an upcoming prototype-victim, I'll have to refer to my Kohji case and Rumi discussions). Keep in mind that this is to clarify my standpoint on why I(personally) see value in SB being the 17-year-old drug.
Judging by what you wrote, I think I need to explain better. What I am making reference to by value, and burden of proof, etc, is the more generalized process of "how to you get from hypothesis to the whole actual truth" in a disciplined way. For instance, in science you have the scientific method. In mysteries you have a solution which is worked out by finding and explaining clues and contradictions. Mysteries being mysteries, the shallow surface interpretation is rarely the fully correct solution. Therefore you look for clues and contradictions and work out a theory that better explains those than the surface interpretation does. Doing that adds "value" to a theory and can be considered a measure of a theory's strength and believability.
This viewpoint is justified because it sets clear criteria for a path to the truth: maximizing the value of a theory should ultimately lead to the correct one (given Gosho is a fair person, and a consistent decent writer, and we have a lot of material to work from, this tends to play out okay). It also makes it easy to separate the wheat from the chaff using Occam's razor - a theory that introduces complexity without corresponding value is just no good. And in an environment where there are 1000 different completing theories, this is an extremely handy heuristic for staying on top of the most believable ideas.
My version of the drug history involves up to 5 drugs hypothetical or real. That's complex, but I assumed the burden of proof and made a decent attempt using the manga evidence available to individually justify why each and every one of them existed or might have existed. That is how I attempted to derive value.
My beef with you in this case (and other cases as well) is that you throw out theories and expect me to play point and counterpoint when you haven't yet done the groundwork to spell out what value your competing theory has at all. Why should you be believed if you don't at minimum mount an attempt to explain what your theory does better than the default (e.g APTX killed Kohji and Amanda), much less what it does better than mine? If you don't at least explain how you beat the surface interpretation, then you are just a more loquacious equivalent of the guy who pops into the boss threads for one sentence to say "Yoko is the boss". k. but Y tho?
And what's really frustrating is that I spent quite a while reading through that huge block of text and most of it was devoid of any evidence that supported your theory exclusively. I can think of two things you said, "terrifying" you took to mean "scary" like a silent killer type drug, which Zerozaki rightfully countered by pointing out "terrifying" encompasses "hair-raising" (and you kind of ignored the dream-like part), and second "it would smooth the plot over better".

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:Because it's easier to show an example than go on telling, I challenged 948p3-4's status quo with my cross-contamination theory: I claimed that APTX 17ya and APTX modern are not the same drug and that Ai mixed up Silver Bullet into APTX modern. The value it adds is resolving 2 apparent contradictions. (1: Why the usually cautious Org would feel comfortable killing people using the in-development modern APTX drug which is not 100% effective. 2. Why the Org would kill people using a drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder and which is suspected to have a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.)
Sorry but this threw me off a bit... where's the contradiction exactly?

1. Sherry had tested it on mice before it was used on Shinichi(the first guinea pig). like she said, all the results pointed to the effect of a perfect weapon(with the exception of one). When BO, or, to specify, Gin was using APTX, he was aware of its main effect. Why is your quick conclusion that the BO knew it wasn't 100% effective, rather than Gin simply not being aware of the other details(for whatever reason)? For BO to know about its imperfection as a weapon, wouldn't that mean that they had to have known about the shrinking side-effect(which we know would be contradictory)?

2. "A prototype for a drug" vs "the final version of a drug". Again, I see no contradiction. A prototype that was intended to have an "A" effect, but ultimately ended up having a "B" effect, which therefore is being used for a different purpose(that doesn't go along with "A" effect's purpose), is not contradictory.
(Side-note: Haibara said that it didn't have the effect of a "dream drug", so I'm not sure whose suspicion you are referring to(the fans?))
Image
Let me explain further then. In contradiction 1, APTX modern hadn't even been tested on a human (Numabuchi TTFNed) until Shinichi, and Gin was already carrying some around probably because he intended to murder people with it. The contradiction is that it would be out of character for the Org to sic an untried drug on randoms because it might not work as well as they think (And this turned out to be the case for 2x (3x?) people and at least 1x mouse). So what explains this sudden disregard for caution best? If the Org had past testing data because APTX had been tested before and even used to murder people in the past (Kohji, Amanda, others on the list hypothetically), then it would suddenly make a lot more sense why they would be willing to use it again in the modern era without worrying about getting all the 'i's redotted and 't's recrossed. And why would the modern version of APTX apparently turn out to be less murderery and more back-to-schooley than the one in the past? Another dream-like drug's research got mixed in by mistake.

Contradiction 2 is pretty obvious. Why use a not-murder drug for murder against its creator's wishes? You are an evil Organization with known interorganizational communication problems and headstrong employees following their own agendas. If your scientist comes up to you and says "hey, I remade this APTX 4869 drug" there is a better than decent chance you might be like, "we used that for murder 17 years ago, still looks murdery, let's use it again!" The problem lies in the fact that your scientist is working from questionable and potentially mixed sourcing materials and may not fully realize the entanglement, has ethical objections to murder drugs, and is the personality type to withhold certain results from you. So your drug turns out less murdery than hoped, you have created a detective tyke-bomb, and the only scientist who could have disentangled what the drug she made actually does ghosted after you tried to kill her. *sad trombone noise*

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:These leaps are the part that should be explained in detail. It is pretty obvious from our past dealings that the two of us have very little in common when deciding what constitutes a strong and reasonable theory, so I can't easily see things from your perspective.
From my understanding, there's not much difference. the only difference was that you dismissed certain foreshadowing patterns as misdirection and that they couldn't be used as back-up for theories(since they don't rely on in-universe evidence)[Sorry for reviving this, or if I've misunderstood your earlier points, but I wanted to be clear on that].
It's not just how we determine what evidence should be used, it's also our processes for evaluating and then settling on a theory that are different too. Iori, Verumi, glass shard, Wakita is a BO spy 1.1 cases in, and this list swap one - none of those are my style at all.


MeiTanteixX wrote:(Akai just doesn't grow any)
But Akai has a european mom, and genetic europeans are generally average to pretty hairy people.
Spoiler:
Image
In the double barreled shotgun interpretation of genetics, one barrel of even northeast european should have some visible impact I think. I suspect laser hair removal for chest + pits.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 8th, 2017, 6:57 pm

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote: Iori, Verumi, glass shard, Wakita is a BO spy 1.1 cases in, and this list swap one - none of those are my style at all.
Analyzing without enough in-universe data is definitely not your style. You have clearly proven how strict you follow the scientific principles, even for fiction(which again, I've said I respect).

I don't think "swap" is the right word.
Spoiler:
If SB was the prototype from 17 years ago, then that would mean that SB prototype was the original "kill and disappear" weapon, and the BO just relabeled the list that documents the name of the victims to "APTX"(when SB materials were used in the development of the modern APTX), with the intention of hiding the existence of SB research from Sherry(and pass-off APTX as her parents' only research that there is to take over).

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:(Akai just doesn't grow any)
But Akai has a european mom, and genetic europeans are generally average to pretty hairy people.
Spoiler:
Image
In the double barreled shotgun interpretation of genetics, one barrel of even northeast european should have some visible impact I think. I suspect laser hair removal for chest + pits.
this dedication o.o
DC's Awesome Qoutes:
Spoiler:
Image
Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

DeviantArt:http://meitanteixx.deviantart.com/
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Zerozaki4869
Posts: 186

Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Zerozaki4869 » July 9th, 2017, 1:02 pm

Chek, I've found some mud on Chikara Katsumata.(supposedly)
http://www.detectiveconanworld.com/foru ... ce5f1d.jpg
Gosho seems to give the readers an exclusive direct/face to face shot of Shukichi,while putting the supposed manga-reader in an oblique place just behind Chikara.
So from the reader's perspective Chikara should look a bit oblique(as mentioned in my diagram), but the obliquity wouldn't entail the user to see his eyeball as it would be focused on Shukichi.
The real issue here is that Chikara's face should exactly face Shukichi as he's looking directly at him.
From viewer's perspective Chikara looks more tilted towards his(Chikara's) left. His left eyeball should be more close to his nose bridge than it's in reality.
As if Chikara tilted his head a little to his left to get a fuller view of Shukichi, and the positioning of his left eyeball also is somewhat odd. It looks rather to be focused on the left than on Shukichi.
Generally our line of vision is exactly perpendicular to the imagined Vertical plane which just touches the back of our head when we're moving our head to focus on something. In the case of Chikara's left eyeball the line of vision is not locked on Shukichi.

Chikara can very well have a Prosthetic eye.

BTW, I'm Otaku3670 over that forum.
QuestWorld
Posts: 1

Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby QuestWorld » July 19th, 2017, 1:10 am

"The third theory is based on an alternate way of gaining immortality: preserving one's mind eternally using programs to create a perfect replica of the thought processes of a human on a computer, basically digitizing people. It is an AI based project, which fits for a game programmer, would require the smartest programmers known, and taken to a logical extreme becomes bad for humanity. However I also think it is also kind of "out there" for a theory.
So in conclusion, I really don't know what's going on with the programming stuff."Chekhov

I misread gaining immortality as gaming immortality. Which led to Quest World from the show Real Adventures of Jonny Quest. 'QuestWorld was originally created by Dr. Benton Quest as a research platform, within which various experiments could be simulated and scenarios played out without risking harm to the real world. It turns out that QuestWorld is such a real experience to its users, that should one's "avatar" die in QuestWorld, the user's brain would go into "damage control" mode for real, doing actual permanent damage to the user's body and brain. Thus, use of it becomes limited; it is impossible to, for instance, witness an atomic explosion or a supernova up close in QuestWorld, or to play out standoff or other military scenarios. Dr Quest would likely not allow his invention to be applied to the military anyway.'https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/5783/what-is-the-questworld

Or the episode of Xfiles called First Person Shooter.
yourereadingthis
Posts: 7

Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby yourereadingthis » July 27th, 2017, 9:06 pm

Having read the discussion on Rum, I agree that the prime candidate for Rum is Katsumata. About the current lack of strong evidence of him having a prosthetic eye (since we have seen close ups of both his eyes and they appear normal), I have a theory/prediction (if someone already mentioned this in the forums, my apologies):
As others have said and thought, Gosho has given us many candidates for Rum which have an obvious issue with an eye but they seem to be mostly red herrings, if Katsumata had an obvious issue with an eye, that would draw too much suspicion. I think the reveal and confirmation of his prosthetic eye in the future could be something to do with the appearance of the fake eye under infrared illumination. One aspect a prosthetic eye would not necessarily imitate is that the pupil reflects infrared light. Prosthetic eyes, typically made of glass would have a drastically different appearance to normal eyes under infrared. Perhaps BO agents meeting Rum at night use night vision goggles to scout and locate Rum using this trait?
EDIT: Certain types of glass reflect IR, others don't. Not sure about the type/s which prosthetic eyes use.

It's funny because this is my area of research (eye tracking) but I only had this epiphany recently.
On-axis close-up image of eye under IR illumination: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brig ... nation.jpg
mimi_pug
Posts: 1

Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby mimi_pug » August 4th, 2017, 8:31 am

Since the beginning, the ASACA RUM being interpreted as Asaka = Rum always feels too simple and too obvious to be a dying message, if we look on how every dying message was being solved in the manga. I could still feel the goosebumps after seeing the dying message solved by Chekhov (and everyone) in here. And theory Zerozaki4869 said that could indicate Chikara having prosthetic eye is (a little bit) make sense too.
S.Vineyard
Posts: 183

Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby S.Vineyard » October 8th, 2017, 7:22 am

Bump.

While Chek is seemly still on hiatus, I want to revisit some of her [urlhttp://forums.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=3518#p117014]"outdated theories"[/url], that still might be more valid considering current data.

1) Future plot directions in the Bourbon arc

Spoiler:
The theory that Akai might have to save Ai from Bourbon (besides the later actually being a "good guy") is still quite valid, considering how much Amuro hates Akai and still suspects him being Okiya.

There might be a chance that he find her and use her to lure Akai out.

Plus, the Akai/Ai storyline still needs a conclusion and to offically reveal in-universe.that the Akai and Miyano Family is related. (Something already spoiled by Gosho in an interview.)


2) Sera's purpose in the plot

Spoiler:
The Second Part has already been confirmed, besides the Storyline going into at bit different route, with the revelation of Mary.

It is now clear that investigating into Akai's "death" actually has been only a side priority for Masumi and the actually goal always has been to 100%ly confirm to her and her mother that Conan really is Shinichi.

The Kyoto Trip also imo. refueled the theory that Masumi's purpose might also be to drive Ran's suspicion, considering how clearly she was pointing out to things like the Sleeves etc.

(The Red Thread Group has collected much more data for this and posted in this forum's "Ran Supsicion" thread + on their FB page)
mtcc
Posts: 15

Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby mtcc » October 8th, 2017, 8:55 am

hello it semes adoptive father yusuharu haneda for shukichi

the name from shogi player yusuharu oyama

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