Chekhov's theories about the plot

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby k11chi » July 1st, 2017, 8:05 pm

Though at the end of the day it's obvious that there are two drugs because Conan, Haibara and Mary are all alive while Kohji's adult body is rotting somewhere six feet under.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Zerozaki4869 » July 3rd, 2017, 3:59 am

k11chi wrote:Though at the end of the day it's obvious that there are two drugs because Conan, Haibara and Mary are all alive while Kohji's adult body is rotting somewhere six feet under.

Nah, Man Kohji's body is already burnt into Ashes.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 3rd, 2017, 11:42 pm

bash7353 wrote:Is it really true that Gin says in Chapter 1 that the poison has never been used or tested on humans before? Because that does somewhat contradict its usage 17 years ago on Haneda Kouji. It certainly is true that Haibara suggests in her thoughts that there are two separate drugs, but so far that has not been stated very clearly.
I believe Spimer's quote best answers your question.
Spimer wrote:Haibara did say she made the current ATPX from the remains of research materials that survived the fire of her parents' lab so it could be that it's different from what the one employed in the past is and she does inwardly think that the BO was actually aiming to achieve another drug altogether (with ATPX being an attempt).
This is why I listed APTX I and II in the diagram - If APTX existed 17 years ago, it isn't going to be the same today, especially after it was reconstructed from partial and damaged information which may have had data from other drugs mixed in. I believe Gin was commenting on Shinichi being the first test run of this generation's drug (but I don't know if Gin was aware of the one in the past.) It may sound odd, but Gin may not have access to the research data that explains things like the APTX of the past and the kill list. We don't even know if he knows Rum assassinated Kohji and Amanda with APTX 17 years ago. The Org is weird about sharing data.

As for the other drug, Ai stated close to directly that there was another drug [besides APTX] the BO intended Ai to make. It's concrete existence isn't certain [hence the broken line in the diagram], but the potential is unmistakable. I listed it as potentially a derivative of Silver Bullet because that makes the most sense at this point. Her parents were about to complete it and their coworkers (people like Pisco?) found it extremely promising, yet the Miyanos died before it was finished, the data half destroyed, and everything left in limbo. If the BO wanted a drug that wasn't APTX and wanted Ai in particular to make it, that would be the one.

k11chi wrote:Though at the end of the day it's obvious that there are two drugs because Conan, Haibara and Mary are all alive while Kohji's adult body is rotting somewhere six feet under.
The modern APTX still seems to be a kill-most drug, if mice are taken into account.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby bash7353 » July 4th, 2017, 8:22 am

The thing that bothers me about that whole multiple drugs thing is that it would imply that the poison used to kill Haneda Kouji 17 years earlier and the one that shrank Shinichi are different ones. And yet they appear on the same list Haibara was given. If there are multiple drugs, you would expect separate lists for individual drugs or at least some sort of clarification as to that, wouldn't you? The two names also appear surprisingly close to one another as Conan points out.

I think that, generally, everything Haibara says to Conan should be taken with a grain of salt as she is rather secretive about that sort of thing, but as we've seen the list in the manga - and twice no less - I think we can be pretty sure that that bit's actually true.

As a result, I am entertaining the notion that there might actually only be one drug. It may very well be true that Haibara was supposed to create something other than the drug her parents developed, but maybe she never did. Could be because couldn't, or maybe because she didn't want to.

I could imagine that there is some sort of attempt to justify dialogue that was written before there was supposed to be Haneda Kouji. Aoyama wrote Gin saying it's the first time the drug was used in Chapter 1 without being clear on the implications. I would say that contradicts Habra's claim that the drug used 17 years ago is basically the same. Conveniently, Conan disagrees. He remembers Gin's statement from Chapter 1 and just accepts it without questioning it or even perceiving it as a contradiction. I think this could be an attempt to try and retroactively clean up a continuity error in Chapter 1.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 4th, 2017, 11:38 am

bash7353 wrote:The thing that bothers me about that whole multiple drugs thing is that it would imply that the poison used to kill Haneda Kouji 17 years earlier and the one that shrank Shinichi are different ones. And yet they appear on the same list Haibara was given. If there are multiple drugs, you would expect separate lists for individual drugs or at least some sort of clarification as to that, wouldn't you? The two names also appear surprisingly close to one another as Conan points out.
That assumes the Black Organization knows that Shiho didn't make an exact copy of her parent's drug, and Sherry told them the whole truth about her work. In Gosholand, the BO might just take Shiho at her word when she told them she remade APTX.

bash7353 wrote:As a result, I am entertaining the notion that there might actually only be one drug. It may very well be true that Haibara was supposed to create something other than the drug her parents developed, but maybe she never did. Could be because couldn't, or maybe because she didn't want to.
I don't know if that other drug got made, or is APTX 4869 V2.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Swagnarok » July 4th, 2017, 5:19 pm

Based on the fact that Conan and Kohji are grouped together on the same list, the Organization does at least assume that Haibara's version of the drug is an exact (or almost exact) recreation of the original, not a separate drug, and that they believe that what she created should have the exact same effects as the original. Considering that the total time that passed from Manga files 1-996 has been less than a year, one must then conclude that, in hindsight at least, not a whole lot of time could've passed in between Conan and Haibara shrinking.
Assuming that Conan was "the only person on the list" whose death wasn't confirmed, it must be assumed that either:
(1). Haibara is not being entirely forthcoming with Conan
(2). Them both shrinking and nobody else doing so was like a lightning strike in a bottle kind of thing
(3). The drug was not used on anybody else in that relatively brief time gap, and the MAIN effect of what Haibara created is to shrink people, meaning it's definitively different from the original in some form or fashion, probably because it's the botched love child of the original APTX and some other drug developed by the Miyano parents.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Swagnarok » July 4th, 2017, 5:34 pm

If this third option's the case, then it becomes impossible for Mary or Asaka to have been shrunken 17 years ago, since the original drug wasn't capable of such an effect.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby k11chi » July 4th, 2017, 10:03 pm

I'd say it's just that Haibara finished what they first set out to do. Miyano's agenda for becoming part of the ORG was probably to create this thing that Vermouth doesn't want anyone to know of, and BO's is the no trace poison.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 4th, 2017, 11:54 pm

Old version of APTX4869(APTX 1.0): Unknown goal
Prototype: Unknown
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by BO 50 yrs ago)

Silver Bullet(SB): "dream drug"
Prototype: Kill without a trace (if used 17 yrs ago)
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by Atsushi/Elena)

New version of APTX4869(APTX 2.0): "not a dream drug"
Prototype: Kill without a trace
Side-effect: Shrinking
(Made by Sherry, after she combined APTX 1.0 and SB materials)

APTX List(could've easily been relabeled in the past):
- All SB Prototype Test Subjects (if used 17 yrs ago)
- All APTX 2.0 Prototype Test Subjects (Shinichi being the first)
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Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
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Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 5th, 2017, 12:23 am

MeiTanteixX wrote:Old version of APTX4869(APTX 1.0): Unknown goal
Prototype: Unknown
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by BO 50 yrs ago)

Silver Bullet(SB): "dream drug"
Prototype: Kill without a trace (if used 17 yrs ago)
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by Atsushi/Elena)


So what is your logic behind fingering Silver Bullet as the likely drug used on Kohji and Amanda instead of "APTX 1.0"?

k11chi wrote:I'd say it's just that Haibara finished what they first set out to do. Miyano's agenda for becoming part of the ORG was probably to create this thing that Vermouth doesn't want anyone to know of, and BO's is the no trace poison.

I don't see any evidence that the BO intended to make a no-trace poison at any stage. Ai didn't intend the current APTX to be one, according to her. If the 17ya APTX was her parents' prototype as Shiho hypothesized recently, then I doubt they intended to create a poison either judging by their personalities. The poison effect might have just been a lucky strike for the BO, taking advantage of a prototype's quirk.
Last edited by Chekhov MacGuffin on July 5th, 2017, 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 5th, 2017, 12:30 am

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:Old version of APTX4869(APTX 1.0): Unknown goal
Prototype: Unknown
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by BO 50 yrs ago)

Silver Bullet(SB): "dream drug"
Prototype: Kill without a trace (if used 17 yrs ago)
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by Atsushi/Elena)


So what is your logic behind fingering Silver Bullet as the likely drug used on Kohji and Amanda instead of "APTX 1.0"?

Silver Bullet was the more recent drug research that I would bet on to have remnants of prototype drugs being used 17 yrs ago, since that was the main drug that Sherry's parents were working on. I don't think we have enough information on the APTX 1.0 to even start pointing fingers at it. The Miyano's research(and "accident") however has been referenced multiple times through out this arc and is more likely to be the thing that this arc is gonna focus on.
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Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 5th, 2017, 12:39 am

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:
MeiTanteixX wrote:Old version of APTX4869(APTX 1.0): Unknown goal
Prototype: Unknown
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by BO 50 yrs ago)

Silver Bullet(SB): "dream drug"
Prototype: Kill without a trace (if used 17 yrs ago)
Side-effect: Unknown
(started by Atsushi/Elena)


So what is your logic behind fingering Silver Bullet as the likely drug used on Kohji and Amanda instead of "APTX 1.0"?

Silver Bullet was the more recent drug research that I would bet on to have remnants of prototype drugs being used 17 yrs ago, since that was the main drug that Sherry's parents were working on. I don't think we have enough information on the APTX 1.0 to even start point fingers at it. The Miyano's research(and "accident") however has been referenced multiple times through out this arc and is more likely to be the thing that this arc is gonna focus on.

Okay, but that doesn't explain why you think Silver Bullet, a drug the people in the know were only getting excited about around the time of the Miyano's deaths (17-18ya), which probably would not have been field tested on an assassination target, would be the killer of Kohji and Amanda. APTX 1.0 seems like a much more reasonable choice, since, unlike Silver Bullet, APTX 4869 may be much older (Miyanos had up to 12-13 years working for the Org.) and have had time for testing leading to use in the field. That would also mean Ai is mistaken about the kill list and it was relabeled. Your theory seems overly complicated when there is a much simpler one at hand which explains all the facts. APTX was used 17ya and now so death names were carried over between generations, and Silver Bullet didn't really get off the ground at the time.
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 5th, 2017, 3:29 am

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:APTX was used 17ya and now so death names were carried over between generations, and Silver Bullet didn't really get off the ground at the time.
If APTX 2.0 had SB materials involved during its development(and SB and APTX are overall similar researches that share the same development stages before they part ways), then the death names can still be carried over from SB list to APTX list.

We don't know enough about the SB progression to say that. SB is the Miyano research that we know had made enough progress to make the labmates excited. We know nothing about their APTX progression, or if they even started it seriously, since everything that Haibara said(about her taking over her parent's research) before hearing the tapes(that revealed about the SB research) could have been a misunderstanding based on deception.

Unlike you, I'm supporting the idea that the Miyano were backed-up by the BO to have the resources to work on the SB research(which is based on the ideas that labeled Atsushi as a "mad scientist"), not that they joined BO to take over the APTX research.
DC's Awesome Qoutes:
Spoiler:
Image
Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby Chekhov MacGuffin » July 6th, 2017, 2:00 am

MeiTanteixX wrote:
Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:APTX was used 17ya and now so death names were carried over between generations, and Silver Bullet didn't really get off the ground at the time.
If APTX 2.0 had SB materials involved during its development(and SB and APTX are overall similar researches that share the same development stages before they part ways), then the death names can still be carried over from SB list to APTX list.

We don't know enough about the SB progression to say that. SB is the Miyano research that we know had made enough progress to make the labmates excited.
And again, your theory that APTX 4869 and the its kill list was actually a Silver Bullet its kill list 17ya isn't convincing. You have stated it, but you haven't supported it. Your theory offers no advantage over the default yet adds a layer of complexity and lies that must be untangled for the sake of the readers later. It smells like another I-think-this-solution-is-too-straightforward-so-add-another-twist response to an already pretty complicated brew of projects and intentions.

MeiTanteixX wrote:Unlike you, I'm supporting the idea that the Miyano were backed-up by the BO to have the resources to work on the SB research(which is based on the ideas that labeled Atsushi as a "mad scientist"), not that they joined BO to take over the APTX research.
I'm not sure how you got this far arguing with me while misunderstanding one of the central points to my general theory of the drug program, but if you read what I have written on the main page, recheck the diagram, and reread the unknown drug part of this post, you will find that I have consistently advocated the idea the Miyanos were called in to replicate/improve a drug that was lost (the alpha drug on the chart). This alpha drug was not the same as Atsushi/Elena's APTX 1 or Shiho's APTX 2. It was something else entirely (Are you assuming the alpha drug also bore the APTX name?) which I hypothesize caused Vermouth's aging problem way back when. All these drugs combined make up the 50 year research project effort.

I believe Atsushi was recruited for the BO because his unorthodox ideas would keep him from turning his nose up at the project the BO wanted him to carry out (likely related to de-aging or fixing de-aging), not because Atsushi had already developed a drug before entering the BO's research project. The Miyanos, once inside, worked out their own version of this alpha drug, and also perhaps made an attempt to carry out the BO's overarching goal. In doing so, the Miyano parents made APTX 4869/Silver Bullet which became part of the overarching 50+ year old project. I believe APTX 4869 was developed first, was considered a failure, and was then was used as a killing tool because untraceable death was a convenient side effect. Silver Bullet was a fork off the APTX project (thus making it a similar drug) that took things in a new and promising direction that hoped to achieve "dream-like" results. I believe the BO didn't think it was ever completed, although there is the possibility that some of it may have gotten around and was used on Mary much later.

Because Silver Bullet and APTX 4869 were somewhat similar, one being a fork of the other, when the research was damaged in the fire, it was really easy to get the data mixed. Shiho (probably unintentionally) developed a hybrid of the two (my cross-contamination theory), and it got called APTX 4869. Shiho probably realized what happened later, but too late, the Org started using it on people as a weapon like the previous APTX.

I don't think making an untraceable death drug was ever a goal of the BO. While useful, it doesn't make a lot of sense within various conversations about people's efforts (Pisco, Ai x a few, Elena tapes), or make sense in the grander context of the BO's aims which seem to be about aging issues, and playing "god and the devil", and fighting "against the stream of time".

Ref note.
viewtopic.php?t=12618&start=15#p847362
Spimer wrote:Here are the translations.

Source (if anyone wants to check them): http://hello.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/wcom ... 037043/l50

First red box:

Q: "Who's the smartest of them? Sister outside the domain, Jodie, Miyano Elena, Vermouth" --> Miyano Elena
A: "Miyano Elena is the smartest. Since she's creating an incredible drug."
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Re: Chekhov's theories about the plot

Postby MeiTanteixX » July 6th, 2017, 9:18 am

Chekhov MacGuffin wrote:And again, your theory that APTX 4869 and the its kill list was actually a Silver Bullet its kill list 17ya isn't convincing. You have stated it, but you haven't supported it. Your theory offers no advantage over the default yet adds a layer of complexity and lies that must be untangled for the sake of the readers later.
This whole APTX and SB debate/info has always been based off of interpretations from vague comments and conversations. Your so called default is also assumptions based on interpretations that haven't been solidified.

Why do I think SB prototype was the one that was doing the killing 17 yrs ago? It's very simple, and doesn't really need big leaps. Just based on the MT revelation and Haibara's hidden thoughts about her parents and BO's different agendas in File 948, it's not hard to make my conclusion.

What has been the ongoing status quo regarding the research of her parents before MT(File 821)?

In File 242, Pisco name-dropped Haibara's parent's research involvement in the BO and how they talked a lot about the research while it was still in development(what research he was referring to was still ambiguous, but the natural conclusion was the only thing we knew at that time, APTX research). He also said that her parents would have been proud of her for developing the drug this far(meaning that her parents research was at least similar enough that it shared the same development stages as APTX research).

In File 384, Conan said that Haibara had mentioned that she took over her parents research(which ofc is based on Haibara's knowledge at that time). She then reveals that APTX never had a goal that of a "dream" drug, like "raising the dead", and that it was something foolish, and that majority would not see the benefit of its intended effect.

In File 423, we found out that Atsushi's ideas was being backed up(by BO) and that he was gonna move into a larger research facility(what research ideas he had is ambiguous as well).

In File 427, we see that Gosho was setting up a hidden development regarding her parent's research and that Haibara found out about it at that moment.

In File 434, Vermouth mentions that her parents took over the foolish research(referring to APTX, which Haibara also referred to as "foolish", due to its purpose). This implies that her parents made the decision to take over the APTX research, from Vermouth's perspective(but whether they willingly did it or not, or if they were fully commited to go through it, is not specified), naturally however, we would conclude that they willingly made that decision, since we were under the impression that the Miyano research, that was still under development, that Pisco mentioned(that would make Shiho's parents proud if progressed) was also APTX research(the only research we knew about at that time).

In File 821, we get what I personally see as the biggest info drop regarding the Miyano research that her parents willingly pursued. We found out about the information that Haibara has kept to herself since File 427 and it reveals that her parents were working on a "terrifying drug", which the labmates referred to as a "dream drug", and that they were putting their hopes on it and were calling it "Silver Bullet".

- The description "dream drug" alone clearly contradicts the drug that Haibara had mentioned that she was creating in File 384. This means that SB and APTX are two different drugs(meaning that the BO and the Miyano had two different agendas).

- The Miyano research that Pisco was referring to was something that the Miyano's cared about(hence making them proud if it was progressed), so with this new information, it highly implies that Pisco was talking about the Silver Bullet research, the research that her parents were putting their hopes on(not APTX).

- This also implies that the research ideas that Atsushi had, and that were backed up by the BO(File 423), were likely regarding the development of a "dream drug", Silver Bullet.

- In other words, we don't know what the Miyano's thought about the "foolish" research(APTX) that Vermouth claimed they took over in File 434(or if they even intended to progress it).

- This also means that Haibara's information about her taking over her parent's research(File 384) wasn't completely truthful, since it wasn't the research that we know for a fact her parents were dedicated for during development(SB).

Elena then follows her sentence by saying that she and her husband have to leave their daughters in order to complete the research(as if there was consequences to them completing it within the BO).

- Haibara regretting APTX's creation(right after Elena's statement) due to her not understanding that it was something that shouldn't be made is indirectly indicating that she believes that her parents were planning on leaving to finish SB elsewhere because they didn't want the BO to use it for their own bad agenda(which in this case would be the creation of a different drug, APTX 2.0). This intepretation fits well with why she would break down in tears, since Haibara has been doing the thing that her parents were willing to sacrifice their daughters for in order to avoid doing.

- Elena calling it a "terrifying drug" further indicates SB's dangerous potential if it fell into the wrong hands.

In File 948, Haibara mentions that the 17-year-old prototype drug was most likely her parents prototype drug(which at the moment is ambiguous what drug research she is referring to). Since we know that SB and APTX share the same development stages(based on Pisco's remark in File 242), and since Haibara said that her parents research-material remains(most likely SB remains) were involved in the development of APTX 2.0(File 948), test subjects from SB list can be passed on to the APTX list(obviously likewise with the older APTX versions, which I'm generalizing as "APTX 1.0").
After mentioning that the BO told her that her parents' death was an accident, Haibara then goes on thinking to herself that what they(BO) wanted her to make was a different drug, which again, goes in line with the established description contradiction between APTX and SB(something she has yet to tell Conan and Agasa).

After exhausting myself through all this, the conclusion I wanted to make is that her parent's SB research(which has been the focus point for the Miyano's research overall) and that we know they were dedicated for, is more likely to be the drug that had useful prototype remnants 17 years ago, unlike APTX research(which is doubtful if they even made good progression to, since they wanted to leave and avoid supporting the BO's agenda). Also, considering that Elena called it "terrifying", it's possible that they already had evidence to its terrifying capabilities in the form deadly prototypes, that was being used at least 18 years ago. Overall, from a narrative standpoint, it makes sense for Gosho to involve the SB prototypes in the Kohji story, since it will become the transition for us to find out more about its true purpose, Elena's "leaving"(Mary?) and the Miyano's accident, before we dive into the true purpose of APTX and the Boss' goal.
DC's Awesome Qoutes:
Spoiler:
Image
Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Tumblr:http://masterdetectivexx.tumblr.com/
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