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Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 2:50 am
by Smitty
This is an extension of my RUM Theory: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=13348 . Read this as an independent theory though.

I believe that although Wakita is BO, I do not believe Wakita will be an "actual" RUM, if Rum ends up being three people and I do not believe he is the "RUM" if RUM is controlling three people.

At worst, he is someone that can take orders from RUM (not necessarily is currently though), or is a Rum representative/body double/third hand/etc., but is currently under a mission from Gin.

At best, and where my theory lies is that Wakita is a BO (unnamed or otherwise) a representative sent in by Gin to investigate Kogoro Mouri on two premises - his past involvement with the BO, and his recent involvement with the Asaka Case.

The only BO Activity that Conan currently is aware of is that Vermouth and Bourbon were hanging out during the Song Named Asaka case. Otherwise, there hasn't been a whole lot of BO related activities that Conan has been exposed to plot wise since Scarlet Showdown. Everything has been presented to Conan, and actions lead to further plot points being revealed. eg. the revelation of Haneda Kouji and then the Asaka case. Only not-final deductions we've seen so far is ASAKA=RUM, and Conan and Haibara having that one discussion about Rumi (Haibara saying "don't say anything bad about Rumi"), and ASAKARUM=KARASUMA.

Looking at the Bourbon arc, not much happened behind the scenes. Jodie tells Conan Bourbon is on the move. Almost 50 chapters later Scar Akai ran around for one case, and Conan realized his existence after in the next BO case. Didn't really matter since Okiya and Conan were working together and knew the Fake Death existed, and Conan figured that someone was impersonating him (looks like Akai guessed it was Bourbon). Scar Akai appeared almost 100 chapters later in two panels fiddling with Masumi Sera, then Vermouth impersonating him. Other things that happened during the background that are notable, was Masumi's investigation, Bourbon's investigation (after Amuro's debut case), and Okiya following everyone around memeing the reader. BO wise, literally not much at all. Conan probably isn't even aware Gin tried to blow the train station up during the Mystery Train case.

In the Bourbon arc, the only other mysterious person Sera was also a suspect, but she was introduced over 50 chapters after the Red Shirts Case. The Red Shirts case, Scar Akai intro case, and every Okiya case gave everything we needed to solve the two identities. Scar Akai = Bourbon, and Okiya = Akai. More pieces of evidence would fall into place, but Gosho could of resolved the arc by chapter 710 if he really wanted to. About 30 chapters after Sera's intro case, we get Amuro. The case immediately after Amuro's, we get Vermouth hyping Bourbon with the three suspects. Then only, after Mystery Train, we get clues of Bourbon's true allegiance.

The arc in my opinion likely was poorly planned, or executive meddling (Movie 18 + Movie 20) caused him to rewrite parts of the arc and the current arc - it feels like characters were introduced at the incorrect times and unnaturally. Anyways. We're on the Rum arc now.

This arc starts pretty well, at the end of Scarlet Showdown, in the same case, Vermouth says Gin is concerned about moles in the organization. Akai made a point that Rum was higher than Gin. This means to me, as a hint from Gosho, that Gin is working towards to the benefit of the BO no matter what, and that we now have a character besides the boss whose higher than Gin. We have never seen Gin take orders outside of anyone except the boss.

This is in contrast with the Bourbon Arc -- the clue from Kir, to Jodie, (essentially Gosho to the reader): "someone whose Skilled at Inspection and Information Gathering", with Jodie and Conan theorizing one of his targets is Sherry. During the Bourbon Arc, only the BO characters and Okiya are aware of who Bourbon is until after Chapter 800 where Conan was likely informed by Akai that Bourbon is hanging around.

A bit more multi-case background events happened surrounding Conan finding out that Bourbon stalked Jodie and Conan during the Pickpocketing case. The realization was not only the follow up case (plot wise) after the first one, it's pretty much the next case sequentially speaking. Not much multi-case background plot events happening, to the degree I am looking for. I am aware the entirety of the Akai Family arc is 200+ chapters, amongst others, but I am looking for actions and events, not just clues sprinkled around character stories/cases.

Now, something more interesting is happening. Background events are occurring, and Conan isn't aware of all of them. What I believe this arc's parallel is, is between Gin's Intro Case/Shinichi Kudo's Death and the Asaka Case. Both cases are important as they are both cases where actions of a BO member killed a witness to a crime, but the witness is actually alive. Both cases involve a victim being APTX'd, and one or more witnesses are alive.

Gin refers to everyone by codename except the boss, who he only refers to as Anokata. What this indicates is Gin likely is loyal to the BO's cause and its mission. He may not like the boss, but he respects him and follows his orders. He's pointed the gun at Vermouth and Vodka. He was willing to blow up a hospital to prevent the FBI from questioning Kir, willing to blow a train up which had Sherry, Vermouth, and Bourbon and did not care about their well being. He will abandon or turn on anyone on his side as long as it benefits the BO and/or keeping them around is a liability. (Other examples, killed Akemi since she wanted to escape the BO with Haibara, blew up Tequila, was willing to kill Sherry before she APTX'd since she refused to work). I'm not saying Gin wants to be #1/#2 of the BO, but he works and strives for it's mission.

I believe that Wakita is a BO operative (unnamed or otherwise) sent in by Gin to investigate Kogoro Mouri's involvement with the Asaka Case that Gin found out about. And whatever else can be dug up. Gin likely doesn't respect Rum and thinks he's a fuckup because of said case. Kogoro was also previously suspected as being involved with hiding Sherry (Kir Case). Since Kogoro is now recently involved, he wants to swiftly handle the situation. The Asaka case was already a mess since evidence and witnesses both exist, and Conan, Haibara, Akai, Yusaku amongst others are aware of it. This is Gin's mission of exposing and overthrowing Rum.

Rum being #2, and not a dumbass (since he is #2) either:
- is aware Gin is goofing around and trying to expose him
- likely knows that Gin doesn't respect him, and Rum wants and believes Gin needs to be put in his place.

The question is, why after 17 years, is the Haneda Kouji case being posted online and they can't kill the witnesses involved?

Rum's screwup by Gin likely means what we all predict, witnesses are alive and/or evidence exists, and the usage of APTX (or equivalent) on Haneda Koji was unplanned. By the in story descriptions we've seen, we know that BO is good at cleaning up its tracks. As I mention in my other theory:
Kohji was killed by a APTX-variation. (his name is below Shinichi's in a yet-to-be-determined sorted fashion, Haibara did not mention Amanda was on the APTX list but she mentioned Haneda in the list though)
Amanda was killed by an alternative means (likely a different alternative APTX variation to what Kohji took)
Amanda's room was clean and tidy to look like nobody entered, as per BO modus operandi. After Amanda's death, something happened and Kohji was killed during a fight, and his room was damaged. Asaka is now missing and is considered the prime suspect for the murder. Asaka being alive is the mistake that Rum could not fix as literally nobody knows who the hell Asaka is.

We do not know enough about Rum's characterization to know if he just stopped giving a shit, or is triggered and wants to kill Asaka or what. Rum probably knows more about what transpired and probably knows Asaka cannot make a move by himself/herself, and will continue begging for help anonymously even though Asaka is the prime suspect.

Gin has been successful in many of his missions, even when Conan was involved.
... except point 1 below:

Examples of Gin acting solely in the benefit of the BO.
1) APTX'd Shinichi Kudo who was eavesdropping during the first case. All records show Shinichi died. Jokes on Gin.
2) Killed Akemi and took her coin locker key. Killed Akemi since she wanted to leave the BO and Gin denied her request.
3) Blew up the Daikoku Building during the Tequila case. It was not stated it was Gin, but Vodka was mentioned during the case. The Daikoku building was the likely location of where Tequila was going to meet Gin and Vodka. BO likely blew up this building to clean up their tracks. This case is likely going to be referenced later during future BO arcs as this case by itself gives more questions than it answers. (Corrected!)
4) Gin was aware of the Trigger on the Floppy during Haibara's intro case
5) Killed Pisco after the leak occurred. Successfully located Sherry and targeted her. He was not prepared for Sherry's backup, which is understandable, and allowed her to escape. Him involved with Pisco's case was a plus for the BO.
6) Haibara said she was going to leave the city after the Pisco case before Conan stated otherwise, Gin said he wouldn't search for Sherry in the city. Which means Gin predicted Sherry's movement, which is a +1 for Gin and the BO. Gin predicted Haibara's plan due to their past relationship (whatever that might be).
7) He let Vermouth play in the mud during multiple cases throughout the Jodie/Vermouth Arc. He probably was sure 100% sure Vermouth was up to something, but did not know what. He is not aware of what transpired during the Conan vs. Vermouth showdown. Gin did not intervene, but ordered Vodka to kill Vermouth if it needed to be done. Vermouth got herself to a phone booth, and in Gin's eyes, she escaped whatever ordeal she was in, and nothing leaked. (Corrected!)
8) Kir Assassination Case - after the mission was changed to target Kogoro, Gin outsmarted both Conan and Jodie and got to Kogoro before Conan. He had an approved plan to kill Kogoro who was tracking Kir from the Doorbell Case. Was willing to kill Vermouth on the rooftop.
9) Committed to food poisoning people, starting fires, and planting bombs just to fill up a hospital to locate a Kir by using trackers to find the room. This is still a risk that could cause loss of life, since this plan had a risk that one or more hospital rooms could explode if the FBI could not disarm the bombs in time. BO cannot 100% guarantee this plan would work, even if Akai was helping. (Corrected!)
10) Followed up on suspicions that Kir was a traitor and forced her to prove loyalty by killing Akai.
11) Pointed a gun at Kir several times during the Akai Death case, and Red Shirts Case incase she was mole.
12) Was willing to blow up a populated train station just to kill an ex-BO member (Sherry) even if Vermouth and Bourbon die as a byproduct. Vermouth one up'd him in this case, by wanting to blow up the train itself.
13) I don't remember too much of the Itakura case. Although Itakura did die, and the BO got their program back, Gin was willing to kill Vodka in that moment, and discovered someone is fiddling with the BO. (or something like this - again, all actions are for the benefit of the BO) If Gin didn't show up, Vodka would of taken the contents, and left fingerprints and his cigarette behind.

Rum finds out Shinichi is alive, and orders Bourbon to investigate Shinichi. Why Bourbon? He's one of the few characters we've seen with "Conan level" deduction skills (on par with Akai, Gin, Yusaku, Heiji etc. I'm not saying those characters are equal, but definitely they are of high calibre. As opposed to Vodka or Yamamura quality). I do not believe that if RUM is Wakita, he'd go investigate a witness himself, and immediately text Bourbon to investigate it (in my eyes, essentially telling Bourbon to deal with the situation). It looks like Bourbon and Wakita are doing independent investigations.

During the recent cases, Wakita looked like he appeared in a rush in Agasa'a neighbourhood. What likely transpired is that Gin sent Wakita to investigate Shinichi Kudo -- or, Wakita knows Gin killed Shinichi, and wants to make sure Gin didn't mess up, which is looking more and more likely did since the internet is hyping the recent case Shinichi solved.

Re: Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 4:15 am
by Spimer
You have a couple mistakes in your list of facts:

1) Tequila's death was an unforeseen accident, the bomb in the suitcase was intended for someone else in the Mantendo convention and Tequila mistakenly picked the case with the bomb from the luggage safekeeping instead of the one with the programmers list (which was his goal).

2) The bombs the BO snuck into the hospital were but a ruse to figure out Kir's exact location (although Gin himself didn't care about the location) and to let the FBI know they had been found out and thus force them to take action (which they did by executing the decoy vans plan).

3) It was Gin who sent Vodka to the haunted ship: he and the boss knew Vermouth was involved with the off-season Halloween party to some extent, and the boss ordered him to figure out to what extent. He also knew Vermouth was looking for something as she admitted when they met in the club although he didn't give it much care since he knew she wouldn't tell him the details to begin with due to her secretive nature.

As for the other points, I agree with them especially with the possible identity of Wakita.

Re: Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 5:15 am
by Smitty
Corrected my facts, added a bit more clarification and more detail to the parallel and some details from the 17 year old case.

I find it odd that Conan didn't reach out to help that person online since he literally says someone needs help... thoughts?

Re: Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 9:48 am
by Zerozaki4869
Just two points,

a) Gin was mainly focusing of killing Kogoro if he butts in BO's next case.
b) Wakita was virtually begging Kogoro to accompany him on his next murder case/not just any case.

If I combine these two points I can deduce that Wakita doesn't want Gin to kill Kogoro and is keeping an eye on Kogoro.
Given his hasty behaviour in Shinichi's reveal in the latest case(he doesn't even contact Gin, goes to investigate all by himself.) I think he's pretty much an enemy of Rum within BO. He hates Rum and is intercepting targets on whom Rum might make a move(Kogoro and Shinichi).
Given his love of idioms and Gosho's mysterious answer that Akai Tsutomu and Gin has some sort of secret relationship, I think Wakita is tsutomu in disguise infiltrating BO.
Also there's an accomplice of Bourbon within Bo who will spill Vermouth's secret if anything happens to BO. I also think that man is Wakita aka the king of the rats.

Re: Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 1:40 pm
by PhantomWriter
There are two reasons for why I'm skeptical of Wakita's behavior, though I readily admit my thoughts about him being Rum are more due to process of elimination than proof positive.
  1. A detective who's involved in cases on the regular may not always bump into something Organization-related. Especially in Beika, where murder is apparently the local pastime. Could easily end up in an unrelated case instead, if he's not careful and he doesn't endear himself to Kogoro, he could just as easily end up not coming to a case to protect Kogoro. Especially since Kogoro already has an apprentice, why should he have another person tagging along like that?
  2. Rum's clearly impatient or very particular about time. "Time is money" and "I demand information on Kudo" being the obvious points. The former means to use one's time wisely and generally used colloquially to mean a person needs to hurry up, while the latter (a demand like that) has connotations that he doesn't have time to waste. Wakita has that similarity, while Wakasa and Kuroda both play a longer game, based on their behavior in and out of the Kyoto arc. Wakasa returning to her apartment to do stuff on her computer instead of pressing Ai or those close to her for more information, while Kuroda stays back and observes from afar. (Kuroda acts in a situation where he's fairly certain Wakasa's suspicious and she's out in the middle of nowhere with the kid he knows is the brains behind Kogoro. It's very easy to just kill someone out in the middle of nowhere and dump the body, especially when they're a kid. He was also going to avoid attention were it not for the murder that happened, since he stayed in his tent and otherwise remained quiet.)
Bourbon also doesn't necessarily have an accomplice with regard to Vermouth's information. The "dead man's switch" is a common spy thing and it's often unrelated to having a person do it. It's usually something that is sure to go out otherwise, like a piece of mail or a timed email or similar. That the person, if alive and active, can just keep resetting it to not go out. Meanwhile, confiding that information to another person is more of a security risk- if they're really playing you and are really loyal, then you've revealed you're not with that organization. Or they may decide to reveal the information anyway.

On top of that, if Wakita knows Rei and they're allies, then shouldn't he be keen not to follow Kogoro around? Rei could protect the man himself, since he's good at boxing. They would know that the other isn't with the Organization, so it wouldn't be a concern about thinking an Org. member was hovering near Kogoro. And them being on the same case where Kogoro's going to be killed and someone stops the attack, it would lead to both of them being put at risk instead of risking just one of their covers.

Edit- formatting

Re: Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 9:55 pm
by Zerozaki4869
The problem with your dead man's switch is that, the information might not even sound credible. If Vermouth Kills Rei and makes it look like that he was a disloyal member of BO, I don't think nobody will really bat any eye.

Now, is Rei's real mission is to protect Kogoro or to get more info from BO? He tagged along only get info on Sherry, now after Sherry is done and dusted he's investigating Akai Shuichi/Subaru Okiya, he isn't protecting Kogoro. If he plays his cards well, Wakita may not even know that he is a spy.
Now, if Wakita doesn't that know he's(Rei) a spy and thinks, BO is after Kogoro, would he let a loyal BO member to keep track of Kogoro?
Also it's Gin's idea to kill Kogoro if he bumps in BO related stuff, so is there any guarantee that when Kogoro will bump into BO related stuff Bourbon will also be there to ward off the issue?
Now if Wakita is as smart as I think he is, he'll manipulate Gin into thinking that let's keep Kogoro under watch and as You(Gin) don't like that Bourbon, I'll do that for you, in the meantime hold your fire, till I give you the signal. Thus Wakita can solve all the problems without looking suspicious.

Re: Rum Arc isn't just about the Haneda/Asaka case solution, but about BO's internal operation of Gin vs. Rum [Theory]

Posted: February 14th, 2018, 11:04 pm
by PhantomWriter
To comment on the main post quickly on reread, I thought it was confirmed that the leader has no alcohol codename. Nobody else uses other names for the leader, either. As for what you say about Wakita, Smitty, you do have a point that I will concede in favor of "Wakita's doing a separate investigation." Though something is bothering me about everything surrounding the major suspects that I cannot quite put my finger on yet...

Zerozaki, I don't quite agree. Vermouth backs off with that threat and is only worried about him revealing that information, and about Conan and Ran being safe with him lurking around. And Vermouth, if Gin's reactions are any indication, may not exactly be the best-liked agent they have. Hell, even if that's the case, I could see someone in the Org. following up on that information anyway, if Rei thought it was good enough information as blackmail to keep himself safe.

(I'd made that comment about Rei knowing Wakita because of how you'd described the person whom Bourbon confided in, in your scenario of another person being involved, as being Wakita.)