Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Forum reserved for discussing specific points of the story—mostly from the manga. Be warned, these discussions will be current with the manga and will spoil many plot lines for anime-centric fans.
Zerozaki4869
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby Zerozaki4869 » February 18th, 2018, 1:56 am

I don't know why on this damn thread people don't use an iota of their reasoning faculty. Why the hell Kohji has to name Rum or karasuma? If his killer was someone from his acquaintance circle whose name he could have taken uniquely, only then he can leave a dying message. Do we have any proof that Kohji had handled the mirror(his fingerprints on it) on the contrary, it's obvious from the bruises that he gripped a shogi piece and hid it by holding the scissors defensively. Now if the latter is not a dying message then I don't know what dying message is? But he was able to left a message and it was the last thing he did before dying, thus a dying message. Now why he'll leave a dying message? Because he knew his killer's name. Now his killer was someone from Bo with a codename Rum, but does it mean that when Rum was born his parents named him Rum? He has a name by which he obtains a mobile sim, operates his bank accounts, pays his rents and bills and etc. Now if that man who goes by the codename Rum was known to Kohji, only then Kohji can leave a dying message implicating Rum rather the person's social name, who is called as Rum in BO circles. Do you think if Amuro kills Asuza Enmoto how the latter will leave a dying message? It'll obviously be Amuro, neither Rei nor Bourbon. Why the hell people on this forum can't just think????????????
dccd
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby dccd » February 18th, 2018, 1:36 pm

Theres a small difference between sharing his views and forcing other to believe ones own opinion.
Same with "This could be the case " and "This is how it is, period" even though its clear that there are other possibilities.

For example:
Now why he'll leave a dying message? Because he knew his killer's name.

No.
Its still possible that he only knew his killers rank, his artist name, his nickname or
simply an aspect other than the name which makes it possible to identify the killer.
Even though its very likely - yes - it must not nec. be the killers name.

Or
Now his killer was someone from Bo with a codename Rum

Dccd, Gin says that the case in question is a job that Rum botched, and the Organization is clearly keen on keeping things tied to the case hidden, such as the Asaca song case and deleting the information about the case that keeps popping up. We don't necessarily need to know the dying message or specific event sequence of the crime scene to know that Rum did it.

Same here.
Its still possible that another bo-member was involved.
Its still possible that even a third non-bo member was involved.
Ai points to this in 948 by saying that it doesnt look like BOs work.
Solution can be "Rum messed up", it can be sth else:
Spoiler:
For example:
Chikara tries to kill Kohji, makes mess. Kohji grabs scissor and shogi piece to point to Chikara.
Chikara knocks him out, but does not kill him.
Chikara hears someone coming, flees.
Rum comes in, sees Kohji waking up and gives him APTX. Kohji dies.
Rum hears someone coming and flees without cleaning up.
Here you have Kohjis death with a wrong dying message.


All im doing is to show different possibilities.
Im not the one saying "Naaah, ur wrong because ur theory does not consider my "fact" [=belief]".
So yeah, if some people would use a iota of their reasoning faculty they finally might stop
harassing others with their weekly changing ideas and accept that there are different scenarios contrary to which they favour.
[ ] Yonehara = Rum
[ ] Kuroda = Amuros Boss
[x] MG = Mrs. Akai
[x] Haneda = Brother Akai
[ ] Rumi = Asaka
[ ] Wakita = Bo-Member Whiskey (aka the RAT)
[ ] Iori = just a butler
PhantomWriter
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby PhantomWriter » February 18th, 2018, 6:40 pm

blackmoon wrote:
PhantomWriter wrote:Dccd, Gin says that the case in question is a job that Rum botched, and the Organization is clearly keen on keeping things tied to the case hidden, such as the Asaca song case and deleting the information about the case that keeps popping up. We don't necessarily need to know the dying message or specific event sequence of the crime scene to know that Rum did it.


Well, I think it would be fair enough to consider that there are at least two sides to this fact, one side that wants to keep the truth hidden (the BO in keeping anything tied to them hidden & also Shinichi in keeping the recent news report about him being active and alive hidden) while there is another side that wants to expose and disclose the truth (whoever is posting stuff on the internet about the Kohji case and whoever is posting stuff on the internet about the Shinichi Kudo family). Well, it's natural to assume that the side wanting to keep the truth hidden is the bad guys, but is that really true when applied to the case of Shinichi? So, obviously, there are two sides to every coin, and the two sides do not necessarily remain good or bad since it all just depends on the actual situation.


I wasn't referring to other contexts, such as the issue of Shinichi and the other APTX victims needing to stay hidden. I meant in the context of the Black Organization, a group who routinely murders people, is trying to cover up details about a case because it would get one of their higher-ups in hot water with law enforcement. I think it is reasonable to conclude that Rum was involved and clearly so, most likely as the killer. Even if somehow Rum didn't do it (which would require another Organization member being there, since only Organization members have access to APTX and its variants, so Kohji's death-by-prototype would have been caused by an Organization member), he was so heavily involved that they're concerned and helps tie up the loose ends.

The fundamental problem, and the reason I've been hesitant to posit anything, regarding what happened during the Kohji case is that we're missing key elements.
"Data! Data! Data! I cannot make bricks without clay." -Sherlock Holmes
blackmoon
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby blackmoon » February 19th, 2018, 1:59 am

PhantomWriter wrote:
blackmoon wrote:
PhantomWriter wrote:Dccd, Gin says that the case in question is a job that Rum botched, and the Organization is clearly keen on keeping things tied to the case hidden, such as the Asaca song case and deleting the information about the case that keeps popping up. We don't necessarily need to know the dying message or specific event sequence of the crime scene to know that Rum did it.


Well, I think it would be fair enough to consider that there are at least two sides to this fact, one side that wants to keep the truth hidden (the BO in keeping anything tied to them hidden & also Shinichi in keeping the recent news report about him being active and alive hidden) while there is another side that wants to expose and disclose the truth (whoever is posting stuff on the internet about the Kohji case and whoever is posting stuff on the internet about the Shinichi Kudo family). Well, it's natural to assume that the side wanting to keep the truth hidden is the bad guys, but is that really true when applied to the case of Shinichi? So, obviously, there are two sides to every coin, and the two sides do not necessarily remain good or bad since it all just depends on the actual situation.


I wasn't referring to other contexts, such as the issue of Shinichi and the other APTX victims needing to stay hidden. I meant in the context of the Black Organization, a group who routinely murders people, is trying to cover up details about a case because it would get one of their higher-ups in hot water with law enforcement. I think it is reasonable to conclude that Rum was involved and clearly so, most likely as the killer. Even if somehow Rum didn't do it (which would require another Organization member being there, since only Organization members have access to APTX and its variants, so Kohji's death-by-prototype would have been caused by an Organization member), he was so heavily involved that they're concerned and helps tie up the loose ends.

The fundamental problem, and the reason I've been hesitant to posit anything, regarding what happened during the Kohji case is that we're missing key elements.


Well, yes, that I would agree as well. That there are too many missing key elements to make an accurate deduction of the full and complete picture of what actually happened in the Kohji case.

So, would it be totally wild to assume that Kohji didn't actually die and that the person who died on the scene could be his twin brother or just a person who appears like Kohji? And is it crazy to assume that maybe RUM is an excellent impersonator who is capable of impersonating any person just like Kaito Kid or Vermouth? And is it completely illogical to assume that the 'dying message' left at the scene may not even have been made or left by Kohji himself but rather by a possible 3rd party trying to mislead investigations? Personally, I would say all theories are welcomed and possible, but there is only ONE truth, and that truth is yet to be revealed by Gosho. Period. ^-^
"one should stick with one's original plan" (初志貫徹 shoshi kantetsu) ;)
blackmoon
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby blackmoon » February 19th, 2018, 2:01 am

dccd wrote:Theres a small difference between sharing his views and forcing other to believe ones own opinion.
Same with "This could be the case " and "This is how it is, period" even though its clear that there are other possibilities.

For example:
Now why he'll leave a dying message? Because he knew his killer's name.

No.
Its still possible that he only knew his killers rank, his artist name, his nickname or
simply an aspect other than the name which makes it possible to identify the killer.
Even though its very likely - yes - it must not nec. be the killers name.

Or
Now his killer was someone from Bo with a codename Rum

Dccd, Gin says that the case in question is a job that Rum botched, and the Organization is clearly keen on keeping things tied to the case hidden, such as the Asaca song case and deleting the information about the case that keeps popping up. We don't necessarily need to know the dying message or specific event sequence of the crime scene to know that Rum did it.

Same here.
Its still possible that another bo-member was involved.
Its still possible that even a third non-bo member was involved.
Ai points to this in 948 by saying that it doesnt look like BOs work.
Solution can be "Rum messed up", it can be sth else:
Spoiler:
For example:
Chikara tries to kill Kohji, makes mess. Kohji grabs scissor and shogi piece to point to Chikara.
Chikara knocks him out, but does not kill him.
Chikara hears someone coming, flees.
Rum comes in, sees Kohji waking up and gives him APTX. Kohji dies.
Rum hears someone coming and flees without cleaning up.
Here you have Kohjis death with a wrong dying message.


All im doing is to show different possibilities.
Im not the one saying "Naaah, ur wrong because ur theory does not consider my "fact" [=belief]".
So yeah, if some people would use a iota of their reasoning faculty they finally might stop
harassing others with their weekly changing ideas and accept that there are different scenarios contrary to which they favour.


Personally, I like the version you shared of having Chikara involved in the case. It really makes the case more interesting rather than just a walk-in then poison then death scenario. ;D
"one should stick with one's original plan" (初志貫徹 shoshi kantetsu) ;)
Andarer
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby Andarer » February 20th, 2018, 4:32 am

I like that Chikara's theory, not because I think Chikara is evil or something, but because I have been thinking for a while...

We know that Rum screwed up in that murder, but we don't know what did he screw up. What if the dying message or whatever it was was not actually supposed to mean him, but he arrived at the scene, saw it, thought it was about him or the boss, panicked and his actions lead to him screwing up and information getting leaked?

As in "the message wasn't about him, but if he reacted that way, that means he saw something else than what was initially intended, and that could be the words Asaca Rum or Carasuma.

It's just a hunch so I can't really elaborate on it but I feel it's something along these lines.
MeiTanteixX
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby MeiTanteixX » February 20th, 2018, 6:58 am

Andarer wrote:We know that Rum screwed up in that murder, but we don't know what did he screw up. What if the dying message or whatever it was was not actually supposed to mean him, but he arrived at the scene, saw it, thought it was about him or the boss, panicked and his actions lead to him screwing up and information getting leaked?
"coincidence" becomes way overused if even "Carasuma" is another mislead.
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Spoiler:
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Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
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Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

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Kor
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby Kor » February 20th, 2018, 7:22 am

Minor interjection as a by-the-by and may not be completely related to whatever the current discussion is in the thread.

I've seen a couple of posts that go beyond theorizing who Rum is (and who the other players are) and try to delve deeply into the behind-the-scenes dynamics and connections in the BO and between those players and all of that jazz. I think these speculations might not really be all that productive because Gosho isn't exactly that sort of deep writer who truly cares about this sort of thing. For example the feud between Akai and Bourbon couldn't really be deduced. Sure, someone could maybe have guessed that Bourbon's mad at Akai cause he thinks Akai killed his BFF, but there weren't any leading hints to this revelation.
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PhantomWriter
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby PhantomWriter » February 20th, 2018, 6:05 pm

blackmoon wrote:
So, would it be totally wild to assume that Kohji didn't actually die and that the person who died on the scene could be his twin brother or just a person who appears like Kohji? And is it crazy to assume that maybe RUM is an excellent impersonator who is capable of impersonating any person just like Kaito Kid or Vermouth? And is it completely illogical to assume that the 'dying message' left at the scene may not even have been made or left by Kohji himself but rather by a possible 3rd party trying to mislead investigations? Personally, I would say all theories are welcomed and possible, but there is only ONE truth, and that truth is yet to be revealed by Gosho. Period. ^-^


The problem I have with that is something related to Occam's Razor. While it's traditionally simplified to "the simplest answer is usually the correct one," it isn't quite the case. It's just easier to test and either discard or confirm a theory if there are fewer moving parts to it. You should be conservative with adding new parameters and concepts, because those would need the same sort of testing and confirmation. This is incidentally why, though people try to give a "simple" explanation regarding unknown phenomena by claiming something supernatural or otherworldly (such as someone using demons or ghosts or aliens as an explanation), are actually far more complicated than other answers, because it would require a complete changing of our understanding of things like physics and energy and so on to account for those phenomena.

Suddenly Kohji having a twin brother that was never mentioned before would be jarring. While we have impersonators in-story with their own internal continuities on how to do it (KID and Vermouth), we do not necessarily have enough information to make this conclusion of Rum. The same goes with the question of if the dying message was someone else trying to mislead the investigation and so on. It's not entirely without the bounds of the story continuity, sure, but we have no reason to believe it occurred. Something could have happened is not the same as proof that it did happen.

I agree that there is a singular explanation. While I say I'm hesitant to give a theory, I also think it's wise to be hesitant and judicious with one's guesses. Don't add extra moving parts unless one needs to. This is why I rather dislike the idea of a fourth living person involved with the Kohji case. Sure, if there's more information we're given and it points to that conclusion, I'm fine with it, but people going for that right now means they're going after something with little evidential basis that could otherwise be explained without that extra factor. It's also why my thoughts on Wakita being Rum are subject to change, because it's a "so far" guess and based more on how Rumi and Kuroda being Rum make far less sense for now.
"Data! Data! Data! I cannot make bricks without clay." -Sherlock Holmes
blackmoon
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby blackmoon » February 20th, 2018, 8:49 pm

Kor wrote: I think these speculations might not really be all that productive because Gosho isn't exactly that sort of deep writer who truly cares about this sort of thing.


PhantomWriter wrote:The problem I have with that is something related to Occam's Razor. While it's traditionally simplified to "the simplest answer is usually the correct one," it isn't quite the case. It's just easier to test and either discard or confirm a theory if there are fewer moving parts to it. You should be conservative with adding new parameters and concepts, because those would need the same sort of testing and confirmation. This is incidentally why, though people try to give a "simple" explanation regarding unknown phenomena by claiming something supernatural or otherworldly (such as someone using demons or ghosts or aliens as an explanation), are actually far more complicated than other answers, because it would require a complete changing of our understanding of things like physics and energy and so on to account for those phenomena.


SURE... so you are basically saying that Gosho isn't that sort of DEEP writer who is capable of weaving some complicated supernatural phenomena that is beyond logic, reason, and explanation. So do explain reasonably and logically how it is possible for Vermouth's statement to be true? "To be both of Gad and the Devil, and raise the dead against the stream of time?" :-X

Image
"one should stick with one's original plan" (初志貫徹 shoshi kantetsu) ;)
Zerozaki4869
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby Zerozaki4869 » February 20th, 2018, 10:26 pm

PhantomWriter wrote:
blackmoon wrote:
So, would it be totally wild to assume that Kohji didn't actually die and that the person who died on the scene could be his twin brother or just a person who appears like Kohji? And is it crazy to assume that maybe RUM is an excellent impersonator who is capable of impersonating any person just like Kaito Kid or Vermouth? And is it completely illogical to assume that the 'dying message' left at the scene may not even have been made or left by Kohji himself but rather by a possible 3rd party trying to mislead investigations? Personally, I would say all theories are welcomed and possible, but there is only ONE truth, and that truth is yet to be revealed by Gosho. Period. ^-^


The problem I have with that is something related to Occam's Razor. While it's traditionally simplified to "the simplest answer is usually the correct one," it isn't quite the case. It's just easier to test and either discard or confirm a theory if there are fewer moving parts to it. You should be conservative with adding new parameters and concepts, because those would need the same sort of testing and confirmation. This is incidentally why, though people try to give a "simple" explanation regarding unknown phenomena by claiming something supernatural or otherworldly (such as someone using demons or ghosts or aliens as an explanation), are actually far more complicated than other answers, because it would require a complete changing of our understanding of things like physics and energy and so on to account for those phenomena.

Suddenly Kohji having a twin brother that was never mentioned before would be jarring. While we have impersonators in-story with their own internal continuities on how to do it (KID and Vermouth), we do not necessarily have enough information to make this conclusion of Rum. The same goes with the question of if the dying message was someone else trying to mislead the investigation and so on. It's not entirely without the bounds of the story continuity, sure, but we have no reason to believe it occurred. Something could have happened is not the same as proof that it did happen.

I agree that there is a singular explanation. While I say I'm hesitant to give a theory, I also think it's wise to be hesitant and judicious with one's guesses. Don't add extra moving parts unless one needs to. This is why I rather dislike the idea of a fourth living person involved with the Kohji case. Sure, if there's more information we're given and it points to that conclusion, I'm fine with it, but people going for that right now means they're going after something with little evidential basis that could otherwise be explained without that extra factor. It's also why my thoughts on Wakita being Rum are subject to change, because it's a "so far" guess and based more on how Rumi and Kuroda being Rum make far less sense for now.


If I were to extend your theory then I think we lack evidence that why Kohji in first place would know about "CARASUMA"? As Karasuma is already believed to be dead and leaving a dead man's name in his dying message hardly makes any sense. Also the existence of a shogi piece was confirmed in Kohji's palm at the time of his death, with scissors gripped in a defensive stabbing style.
So I would say there's enough evidence laid in front of us to not attach any importance to Mirror clue and "Karasuma" or "Asaka Rum".

Wakita looks very hasty and in hastiness he can very well compromise with laying low. It is something like an original sin for a BO operative, who is not a spy. Only spies behave in that way(Bourbon, Rye, Scotch, Kir, Ethan Hondou etc.)
Wakita had no reason to sprint out of the cafe, to gather info on Shinichi if he really was Rum and had Bourbon at his disposal.
Wakita on the other-hand is intercepting/investigating people on whom Rum might have an interest and Wakita is in a haste. Also it can be implied that Wakita is competing against a foe who is a very fast mover and vastly resourceful. Kuroda and Rumi has no idea about Rum's style of functioning while Wakita has. As of now it can mean two things. a)He's Rum b) He's Rum's enemy.

I'll select the latter as it suits with Wakita's behaviour.(If Rum can become a shushi chef just to investigate a person nd contrive a delivery just to sniff around Kudo mansion, he has no need for Bourbon to do his bidding.)
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby PhantomWriter » February 20th, 2018, 11:28 pm

blackmoon wrote:
Kor wrote: I think these speculations might not really be all that productive because Gosho isn't exactly that sort of deep writer who truly cares about this sort of thing.


PhantomWriter wrote:The problem I have with that is something related to Occam's Razor. While it's traditionally simplified to "the simplest answer is usually the correct one," it isn't quite the case. It's just easier to test and either discard or confirm a theory if there are fewer moving parts to it. You should be conservative with adding new parameters and concepts, because those would need the same sort of testing and confirmation. This is incidentally why, though people try to give a "simple" explanation regarding unknown phenomena by claiming something supernatural or otherworldly (such as someone using demons or ghosts or aliens as an explanation), are actually far more complicated than other answers, because it would require a complete changing of our understanding of things like physics and energy and so on to account for those phenomena.


SURE... so you are basically saying that Gosho isn't that sort of DEEP writer who is capable of weaving some complicated supernatural phenomena that is beyond logic, reason, and explanation. So do explain reasonably and logically how it is possible for Vermouth's statement to be true? "To be both of Gad and the Devil, and raise the dead against the stream of time?" :-X

Image


Kor and I are different users talking about different topics. :P

I was using the allusion to demons and ghosts as an example of how, in the real world, people come up with an explanation to try to make things very simple, but the mechanics behind it are far more complicated because of things they'd failed to consider in their supposedly simpler answer. For example, if someone tries to say a ghost did something, how you have to now prove that ghosts exist, that a ghost was there at that time, and that the ghost did it. The burden of proof is on the person making the positive claim (in this case, that a ghost did x).

Same principle applies to what we're theorizing here regarding Rum arc stuff, in this case adding in another person during the Kohji case. Sure, seems simple enough at first glance, but when you dig deeper, there are questions that arise, like who that fourth person is and what they've been doing all these years. It's less that it isn't the case and more that, when you start adding in new factors, you need to then elaborate on them and how they fit into the puzzle.

Story depth or lack thereof has nothing to do with whether or not supernatural elements are present or not, and is a completely different topic.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:
If I were to extend your theory then I think we lack evidence that why Kohji in first place would know about "CARASUMA"? As Karasuma is already believed to be dead and leaving a dead man's name in his dying message hardly makes any sense. Also the existence of a shogi piece was confirmed in Kohji's palm at the time of his death, with scissors gripped in a defensive stabbing style.
So I would say there's enough evidence laid in front of us to not attach any importance to Mirror clue and "Karasuma" or "Asaka Rum".

Wakita looks very hasty and in hastiness he can very well compromise with laying low. It is something like an original sin for a BO operative, who is not a spy. Only spies behave in that way(Bourbon, Rye, Scotch, Kir, Ethan Hondou etc.)
Wakita had no reason to sprint out of the cafe, to gather info on Shinichi if he really was Rum and had Bourbon at his disposal.
Wakita on the other-hand is intercepting/investigating people on whom Rum might have an interest and Wakita is in a haste. Also it can be implied that Wakita is competing against a foe who is a very fast mover and vastly resourceful. Kuroda and Rumi has no idea about Rum's style of functioning while Wakita has. As of now it can mean two things. a)He's Rum b) He's Rum's enemy.

I'll select the latter as it suits with Wakita's behaviour.(If Rum can become a shushi chef just to investigate a person nd contrive a delivery just to sniff around Kudo mansion, he has no need for Bourbon to do his bidding.)


I'd have to agree, that Wakita's behavior is strange and not spy-like. Unless it's a red herring, but that's a risky gamble on his part. There's also theories floating around that he's Tsutomu and infiltrated the Organization, but him doing that doesn't work if viewed in tandem, since he should then behave as cautiously as possible to avoid raising the suspicion of the people he pissed off. In the case of Wakita being just one or the other, perhaps, but the former seems unlikely with Tsutomu vanishing off the face of the Earth, and the latter would make sense if he's not in a more information gathering capacity. (In which case, why is he hanging out undercover in a sushi shop, if he can't be bothered to maintain his cover?)

However, I wouldn't necessarily say Kuroda and Wakasa don't know anything about Rum or the situation. Wakasa's reaction to hearing about someone nearly being blinded, and to Kuroda's appearance, in tandem with her having the updated APTX victim list, could very well mean she knows the basic descriptors of Rum. Kuroda, meanwhile, has been generally keen on staying more in the background for some reason or another. The whole thing with the camping trip comes to mind- he showed up specifically because Wakasa (whom he may or may not think is shady, or else someone he needs to deal with) was lingering around Conan, but avoids contact until outside circumstances force it.
"Data! Data! Data! I cannot make bricks without clay." -Sherlock Holmes
blackmoon
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby blackmoon » February 21st, 2018, 3:41 am

PhantomWriter wrote:


Kor and I are different users talking about different topics. :P [/quote]

Yes, I am aware of that, and I hope you also realize that my point of view is also different from Zerozaki's no matter how bizarre they may seem to you. Just because two people come up with unconventional theories at the same time does not mean they are on the same side or two of the same person. 8-)

PhantomWriter wrote:I was using the allusion to demons and ghosts as an example of how, in the real world, people come up with an explanation to try to make things very simple, but the mechanics behind it are far more complicated because of things they'd failed to consider in their supposedly simpler answer. For example, if someone tries to say a ghost did something, how you have to now prove that ghosts exist, that a ghost was there at that time, and that the ghost did it. The burden of proof is on the person making the positive claim (in this case, that a ghost did x).


That actually is a good example and explanation that I would agree with. The most simple solution may not necessarily be the most reasonable. ;)

PhantomWriter wrote:Same principle applies to what we're theorizing here regarding Rum arc stuff, in this case adding in another person during the Kohji case. Sure, seems simple enough at first glance, but when you dig deeper, there are questions that arise, like who that fourth person is and what they've been doing all these years. It's less that it isn't the case and more that, when you start adding in new factors, you need to then elaborate on them and how they fit into the puzzle.


Of course, but it is not unconventional for Gosho to try to link two different people to the same person. Such as linking scar Akai with Bourbon, and linking Vermouth with a white-haired serial killer. So, the fourth person that is added may be deleted at any point in time simply by merging that person with an already existing person, such as the use of wearing a mask or disguise or simply stealing another person's identity. And we are all familiar with that method, since we all use profile pictures that are taken directly from another anime character ;D

Besides, I'm hardly the only one who has bring up the suggestion of a possibility for Kuroda to be Tsutomo in disguise and Wakasa being another BO member in disguise. Read the previous posts and video if anyone is interested... http://forums.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?t=12988 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZlXt5bDquQ

Anyways, I do appreciate your explanations and efforts in trying to simplify the Kohji case. And to be fair, I must admit that I am simply adding the wild theories to make a boring case more interesting. Of course you have the right to not appreciate such dealings of making pleasure from entertainment out of complication. ::)
"one should stick with one's original plan" (初志貫徹 shoshi kantetsu) ;)
dccd
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Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby dccd » February 21st, 2018, 6:23 am

I think you, Phantom, missunderstood Zero.
In his eyes Wakita is actually a BO-spy (+Tsutomu).

But I absolutely agree with both of you, Phantom and Moon, that we simply have way too less
infos about the incident 17 years ago to make that the basis of solving the arc. Thats why I hesitate too.

What disturbs me the most: We seem to have 2 dying messages from Kohji ?!

1) Karasuma [Mirror-clue]
Was kinda confirmed by Gosho himself.
It wouldnt make any sense to say now "Ah... Karasuma is the boss, but no, the dying message isnt Karasuma
in the end because due to the shogi piece it gets a new meaning that is ...."

2) Shogi piece + ?(scissors?)
So is this a 2nd dying message or what is the shogi piece about?

And did he really had time to leave 2 messages?
If not, who left the 2nd one or the 1st one?
And how was Amanda murdered since she didnt appear on the APTX list?
So many questions, but maybe someone has an idea.

PS: On the other hand side I found it interesting how Zero (and/or MeitX, Checkov?) found out
that the shogi piece actually is the horse one (right?). Even if we dont agree with everything, I would
like to know your logical steps behind this.
[ ] Yonehara = Rum
[ ] Kuroda = Amuros Boss
[x] MG = Mrs. Akai
[x] Haneda = Brother Akai
[ ] Rumi = Asaka
[ ] Wakita = Bo-Member Whiskey (aka the RAT)
[ ] Iori = just a butler
Zerozaki4869
Posts: 303

Re: Rum Arc Discussion Thread (Plot + Characters)

Postby Zerozaki4869 » February 21st, 2018, 10:13 am

PhantomWriter wrote:
blackmoon wrote:
Kor wrote: I think these speculations might not really be all that productive because Gosho isn't exactly that sort of deep writer who truly cares about this sort of thing.


PhantomWriter wrote:The problem I have with that is something related to Occam's Razor. While it's traditionally simplified to "the simplest answer is usually the correct one," it isn't quite the case. It's just easier to test and either discard or confirm a theory if there are fewer moving parts to it. You should be conservative with adding new parameters and concepts, because those would need the same sort of testing and confirmation. This is incidentally why, though people try to give a "simple" explanation regarding unknown phenomena by claiming something supernatural or otherworldly (such as someone using demons or ghosts or aliens as an explanation), are actually far more complicated than other answers, because it would require a complete changing of our understanding of things like physics and energy and so on to account for those phenomena.


SURE... so you are basically saying that Gosho isn't that sort of DEEP writer who is capable of weaving some complicated supernatural phenomena that is beyond logic, reason, and explanation. So do explain reasonably and logically how it is possible for Vermouth's statement to be true? "To be both of Gad and the Devil, and raise the dead against the stream of time?" :-X

Image


Kor and I are different users talking about different topics. :P

I was using the allusion to demons and ghosts as an example of how, in the real world, people come up with an explanation to try to make things very simple, but the mechanics behind it are far more complicated because of things they'd failed to consider in their supposedly simpler answer. For example, if someone tries to say a ghost did something, how you have to now prove that ghosts exist, that a ghost was there at that time, and that the ghost did it. The burden of proof is on the person making the positive claim (in this case, that a ghost did x).

Same principle applies to what we're theorizing here regarding Rum arc stuff, in this case adding in another person during the Kohji case. Sure, seems simple enough at first glance, but when you dig deeper, there are questions that arise, like who that fourth person is and what they've been doing all these years. It's less that it isn't the case and more that, when you start adding in new factors, you need to then elaborate on them and how they fit into the puzzle.

Story depth or lack thereof has nothing to do with whether or not supernatural elements are present or not, and is a completely different topic.

Zerozaki4869 wrote:
If I were to extend your theory then I think we lack evidence that why Kohji in first place would know about "CARASUMA"? As Karasuma is already believed to be dead and leaving a dead man's name in his dying message hardly makes any sense. Also the existence of a shogi piece was confirmed in Kohji's palm at the time of his death, with scissors gripped in a defensive stabbing style.
So I would say there's enough evidence laid in front of us to not attach any importance to Mirror clue and "Karasuma" or "Asaka Rum".

Wakita looks very hasty and in hastiness he can very well compromise with laying low. It is something like an original sin for a BO operative, who is not a spy. Only spies behave in that way(Bourbon, Rye, Scotch, Kir, Ethan Hondou etc.)
Wakita had no reason to sprint out of the cafe, to gather info on Shinichi if he really was Rum and had Bourbon at his disposal.
Wakita on the other-hand is intercepting/investigating people on whom Rum might have an interest and Wakita is in a haste. Also it can be implied that Wakita is competing against a foe who is a very fast mover and vastly resourceful. Kuroda and Rumi has no idea about Rum's style of functioning while Wakita has. As of now it can mean two things. a)He's Rum b) He's Rum's enemy.

I'll select the latter as it suits with Wakita's behaviour.(If Rum can become a shushi chef just to investigate a person nd contrive a delivery just to sniff around Kudo mansion, he has no need for Bourbon to do his bidding.)


I'd have to agree, that Wakita's behavior is strange and not spy-like. Unless it's a red herring, but that's a risky gamble on his part. There's also theories floating around that he's Tsutomu and infiltrated the Organization, but him doing that doesn't work if viewed in tandem, since he should then behave as cautiously as possible to avoid raising the suspicion of the people he pissed off. In the case of Wakita being just one or the other, perhaps, but the former seems unlikely with Tsutomu vanishing off the face of the Earth, and the latter would make sense if he's not in a more information gathering capacity. (In which case, why is he hanging out undercover in a sushi shop, if he can't be bothered to maintain his cover?)

However, I wouldn't necessarily say Kuroda and Wakasa don't know anything about Rum or the situation. Wakasa's reaction to hearing about someone nearly being blinded, and to Kuroda's appearance, in tandem with her having the updated APTX victim list, could very well mean she knows the basic descriptors of Rum. Kuroda, meanwhile, has been generally keen on staying more in the background for some reason or another. The whole thing with the camping trip comes to mind- he showed up specifically because Wakasa (whom he may or may not think is shady, or else someone he needs to deal with) was lingering around Conan, but avoids contact until outside circumstances force it.


Yup Wakita is less likely to be a loyal BO-executive and more likely to be a rat(rather king of the rats) in BO.
It will make perfect sense if he's Tsutomu, and let me explain why.
As of now consider, Tsutomu as Wakita, approaches Gin after Kogoro is entangled in Hotta case, asks Gin to let him investigate Kogoro rather than killing him off. Gin agrees as that's more rational solution, but Tsutomu has a problem, what if Rum is also on the move on Kogoro and sends another guy to stalk Kogoro?(he can't waste any-time) also appearance of Shinichi will attract Rum's attention and Wakita can't lose a second as he's up against Rum.

You didn't understand my point. Let's say Wakita is a soccer team(Barcelona) Rum is Real Madrid, Kuroda is Bayern Munich and Rumi is Juventus. Now Barcelona would be more aware of Real's playing style as they see more of each other than Bayern and Juve do of Real.

So Wakita is more aware of Rum's methods, while Kuroda and Rumi aren't. It doesn't mean these guys don't know about Rum, they just don't know as much as Wakita.

@DCDD, my reasoning was simple, Ryuma=Strong Horse, in Wakita's intro he said that Rum is a weak Horse. So the dichotomy worked out, I also thought it could have been Keima=Laurel Horse, but Ryuma more likely as it has an abbreviation Uma=Horse.

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