Mystery Poll: Poll #30

Forum reserved for discussing specific points of the story—mostly from the manga. Be warned, these discussions will be current with the manga and will spoil many plot lines for anime-centric fans.
Kor
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Re: Mystery Poll: Community stats so far

Postby Kor » October 24th, 2017, 2:39 pm

Gosho vs DCTP

As some of the mysteries have resolved since we've started doing these polls, in this post I'll compile the stuff the community was correct or incorrect about.

And yeah I know that once we shifted to Strawpoll, it's not just DCTP members voting, but my thread, my titles :V

Poll #1:
Who is Masumi's 2nd brother?


Community voted for the correct option with a majority

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Shuukichi - 71% (42 votes)
The unknown child - 3% (2 votes)
Another existing character - 8% (5 votes)
A character that wasn't introduced yet - 3% (2 votes)
The 2nd brother doesn't exist. Sera's been in contact with Akai. - 7% (4 votes)
The 2nd brother doesn't exist. Sera's been contacting someone else. - 7% (4 votes)


Poll #2:
Who is the Unknown Child?


Community voted for the correct option with a majority

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Masumi's shrunken mother - 81% (34 votes)
Masumi's shrunken middle brother - 0% (0 votes)
Shrunken Elena - 5% (2 votes)
None of the above, but s/he's definitely shrunken - 2% (1 vote)
A sibling of Masumi - 0% (0 votes)
A half sibling of Masumi - 2% (1 vote)
A relative of Masumi - 7% (3 votes)
Someone related to the rich friend of Masumi's father - 0% (0 votes)
A friend of Masumi - 2% (1 vote)
A Black Organization member - 0% (0 votes)
Member of a certain agency - 0% (0 votes)


Poll #3:

Which of these characters do you think has some sort of British connections/relations?


This was a multiple votes poll. It remains to be seen whether Rum or Bourbon have British connections, but the community's top 2 options turned out to be correct, so... Community was correct.

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Bourbon - 27% (22 votes)
Sera Masumi - 37% (30 votes)
Unknown child - 29% (24 votes)
Rum - 6% (5 votes)
none - 1% (1 vote)


Poll #9:
Which one of the current ongoing mysteries do you think Gosho will resolve first?


Community voted for the wrong option... with a majority

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Masumi's connection to Shinichi and Ran - 53% (68 votes)
The identity of Masumi's 2nd brother - 17% (22 votes)
The identity of the unknown child who lives with Masumi - 12% (16 votes)
Amuro's past - 5% (6 votes)
Rum's identity - 4% (5 votes)
The ordeal between Scotch, Amuro and Akai - 4% (5 votes)
Kuroda's past - 2% (3 votes)
Vermouth's secret - 2% (2 votes)
The identities of the 2 mothers/sisters Gosho hinted at - 1% (1 vote)
Itakura's program - 1% (1 vote)


Poll #11:

Who do you think are the two mothers that according to Gosho, will be revealed to be sisters?


Community voted for the correct option but without majority

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Masumi's mother and Elena - 32% (54 votes)
Elena and Amuro's mother - 29% (49 votes)
Masumi's mother and Yukiko - 14% (24 votes)
Masumi's mother and Amuro's mother - 6% (11 votes)
Another option with plot related characters - 6% (10 votes)
Elena and Yukiko - 5% (8 votes)
Yukiko and Chikage - 3% (5 votes)
Another option, but it will just be a trivial thing and not related to the plot - 3% (5 votes)
Eri and Masumi's mother - 1% (2 votes)
Eri and Amuro's mother - 1% (1 vote)
Eri and Elena - 1% (1 vote)
Amuro's mother and Yukiko - 0% (no votes)
Ayumi's mother and Satou's mother - 0% (no votes)


Poll #15:

What do you think happened with Scotch?


This one's a bit... problematic. 3 options here sort of fit the description. Amuro misunderstood, Akai was kinda indirectly responsible (but not really, though...?). Only one person voted for Scotch killing himself, so... let's put this one as community being wrong I guess...

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Akai was indirectly responsible for Scotch's death - 53% (32 votes)
Akai killed Scotch - 18% (11 votes)
Scotch is actually still alive, but Amuro doesn't know about it - 13% (8 votes)
Akai learned Scotch was a spy and informed the organization, and then Scotch was killed - 7% (4 votes)
Akai had nothing to do with Scotch's death. Amuro misunderstood - 7% (4 votes)
Scotch killed himself once he was found to be a spy - 2% (1 vote)


Poll #17:

How long do you think the Rum arc will be?


Community was dead wrong on this one

Poll results:
Spoiler:
3 years - 30% (19 votes)
4 years - 21% (13 votes)
2 years - 14% (9 votes)
5 years - 10% (6 votes)
Over 10 years - 10% (6 votes)
1 year - 6% (4 votes)
7 years - 6% (4 votes)
6 years - 2% (1 vote)
10 years - 2% (1 vote)
8 years - 0% (0 votes)
9 years - 0% (0 votes)


Poll #18:

What do you think Rum's appearance will be like in Movie 20?


Community was wrong

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Rum will merely appear as a vague or shadowy figure - 34% (23 votes)
A bunch of recurring characters will make an appearance in the film and one of them is Rum - 18% (12 votes)
Rum's voice will be heard - 10% (7 votes)
Rum's voice will be heard, but it will be distorted - 9% (6 votes)
Rum will just be mentioned and won't make an actual appearance - 9% (6 votes)
A glass of rum will appear in the film, not the actual member - 7% (5 votes)
Rum's identity will be revealed - 6% (4 votes)
One of the random extras in the film will be Rum - 3% (2 votes)
New Rum suspects will make an appearance in the film - 1% (1 vote)
Lum will appear, not Rum - 1% (1 vote)
There will be no Rum appearance - 1% (1 vote)


Poll 19:

Who do you think is the character with the odd eyes that is hinted at the latest movie 20 promotional video?


Community was wrong... again

Poll results:
Spoiler:
Rum - 44% (38 votes)
A movie only character - 33% (28 votes)
Those eyes are just there to generate hype but there won't be any character like that in the movie - 13% (11 votes)
It's part of a disguise - 7% (6 votes)
A recurring character that didn't get introduced yet in the manga - 2% (2 votes)
An already existing character - 1% (1 vote)






Final tally so far:
The most voted option was correct in 4 polls.
The most voted option was incorrect in 5 polls.

As far as being correct when it comes to the actual mysteries, community so far is 100% successful (most voted option is correct).
On the flipside, based on these results, the community absolutely sucks at determining Gosho's pacing and it got a bit too hyped about movie 20 to think clearly.

Some of you may have noticed I did not take the Chiba poll into account. That's because it was a joke and the people who voted in it know it was a joke, so... yeah that can't be part of the stats :-X

Once we get additional resolutions to the rest of the polls, I'll add them to this post (or make a new post). That's for the future, though.
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Kor
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Posts: 2945

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #27

Postby Kor » December 8th, 2017, 5:21 am

Poll #27 is up

For the first time in this thread, a simple yes/no question.
Image
Nemomon
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This is my melody and it's just the raver's fantasy

Posts: 1128

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #27

Postby Nemomon » December 8th, 2017, 9:20 am

No.

He's just a side character related to even more side character.
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
When I grow older you will see me rescue you
I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
MeiTanteixX
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Posts: 1236

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #27

Postby MeiTanteixX » December 8th, 2017, 10:26 am

Kor wrote:Poll #27 is up

For the first time in this thread, a simple yes/no question.
Good choice for a poll.
This will be a good way to see how many are certain about Muga.
Last edited by MeiTanteixX on December 8th, 2017, 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
DC's Awesome Qoutes:
Spoiler:
Image
Bourbon:''A child's curiosity and a detective's spirit of inquiry do have much in common''Image
Vermouth:''A secret makes a woman, woman''
Image Image
Mary/Gin:''It's like encountering a demon in the darkness...''
Image
Akai Shuichi:''Fear of death is worse than death itself''
Image
Shinichi Kudo:''following the smell of blood to arrive upon a crime scene, using every one of your senses to hunt the culprit, then once you've seized hold of him, sinking your sharp teeth(your evidence) until your opponent gives up the ghost, That's a detective''

DeviantArt:http://meitanteixx.deviantart.com/
Tumblr:http://masterdetectivexx.tumblr.com/
Youtube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFL6Gqku3dvoPhWaNIRUu0Q
bash7353

部下の手柄は上司のもの
上司の失敗は部下の責任

Posts: 430

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #27

Postby bash7353 » December 8th, 2017, 10:40 am

Everything's related to everything, isn't it?
"Vad ska jag annars vara?" - "Det vet jag inte. Det måste du svara på. Men om du släpper allt du tror att du måste, och frågar dig vad du vill... Vad vill du då?"
描いた夢は叶わないことの方が多い
秀れた人を羨んでは自分が嫌になる
浅い眠りに押し潰されそう夜もある
優しい隣人が陰で牙を向いていたり

惰性で観てたテレビ消すみたいに生きることを時々辞めたくなる

人生は苦痛ですか 成功が全てですか
僕はあなたにあなたに ただ逢いたいだけ
信じたい嘘 効かない薬 帰れないサヨナラ
叫べ叫べ叫べ   逢いたいだけ
jimmy_kud0_tv2
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Posts: 735

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #27

Postby jimmy_kud0_tv2 » December 8th, 2017, 6:39 pm

no (so far 49 votes no)

I don't think he has anything to do with the Rum plot, I just think that he is just adding
to the tone that the Momiji side plot is meant to convey. I feel like if there weren't issues
going on behind the scenes that we would be getting more cases with Momiji and Sebastian
lurking around in the background stalking Heiji.
I hope that I can find someway to contribute to the community even if it's just random crack theories and looking things up for people who can't find the information they need.
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Kor
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Posts: 2945

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Kor » January 7th, 2018, 6:59 am

Poll #28 is up
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Nemomon
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This is my melody and it's just the raver's fantasy

Posts: 1128

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Nemomon » January 7th, 2018, 2:57 pm

Renya is dead. There are too many contradictious infos about Renya and Anokata to assume they're the same person. Renya is dead, and someone else is running the show. Possibly to resurrect Renya.
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
When I grow older you will see me rescue you
I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
Swagnarok
User avatar
Posts: 383

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Swagnarok » January 7th, 2018, 6:25 pm

Kir is Renya in disguise:
She's 27 years old.
27/3/3=3
3=Triangle
Triangle=Illuminati, or secret society/organization
Therefore, Illuminati confirmed, and Kir=Renya confirmed.
Spoiler:
Cherry Blossoms raining down
Just like snow mingled with blood
The fallout from our terrible choices
From the heavens that have rejected us

My fanfic account:
https://www.fanfiction.net/u/7291651/Swagnarok
Andarer
Posts: 15

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Andarer » January 8th, 2018, 3:46 pm

Nemomon wrote:Renya is dead. There are too many contradictious infos about Renya and Anokata to assume they're the same person. Renya is dead, and someone else is running the show. Possibly to resurrect Renya.

I can't see many contradictions considering how little we know about Renya...

But we do know that he was alive at age 109, 10 years after his supposed death, desperate for more money, with the guts to murder the people he was hiring to find the treasure...

Remember that the whole marijuana plot was a lie.
Nemomon
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This is my melody and it's just the raver's fantasy

Posts: 1128

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Nemomon » January 8th, 2018, 4:38 pm

Andarer wrote:
Nemomon wrote:Renya is dead. There are too many contradictious infos about Renya and Anokata to assume they're the same person. Renya is dead, and someone else is running the show. Possibly to resurrect Renya.

I can't see many contradictions considering how little we know about Renya...

But we do know that he was alive at age 109, 10 years after his supposed death, desperate for more money, with the guts to murder the people he was hiring to find the treasure...

Remember that the whole marijuana plot was a lie.


Even ignoring the fact that Anokata is pretty patient and intelligent person, and Renya was impatient, and had to hire some people to solve a riddle, Renya died like 40 years ago. Fifty years ago the BO was founded (and if Renya would found it, he would not hire some random detectives but use his henchmen), and back then the drug (Silver Bullet) was still in development. Even if Renya took the drug (he probably was impatient, and knew that he might die any moment) even though it was still a prototype, why would Ai's parents still work on it? After all Renya would get what he wanted.

For me Renya died before the drug was completed or even in a useful stage. There is no way would live long enough to take the woring drug. Plus, considering that he was in this very advanced age, Elena and Atsushi probably would be forced to finish the drug as soon as possible, but we didn't see them being rushed. Not to mention that if they were this much important to Anokata and his health condition (he already was nearly dead), they would be treasured within the BO and Anokata probably would even jump on his ears if by doing that he would guarantee their safety. But somehow they both died before finishing the drug, and the BO was willing to harm Shiho (and even kill Akemi even though in their best interest was keeping her alive at least until Shiho will finish the drug) meaning that the drug was not and is not Anokata's top priority.

If Renya took the final drug, there would be no reason for BO to continue working on it and even move to the APTX drug. Because Renya would already get what he wanted. Which means that either the prototype didn't work and Renya died, or the prototype partially worked and Renya is alive, but needs constant medical care (and maybe he must take the drug from time to time). But in this case he wouldn't allow the entire Miyano's family to get killed because he needed them to stay alive. Not to mention that Shiho didn't know what her drug was meant to do which means it wasn't meant to reverse the effects of the Silver Bullet. And since Shiho wasn't in hurry with the drug and works on it means that Renya doesn't need is ASAP, so he probably is dead and it doesn't matter if he will be resurrected tomorrow or in a 10 years, because he can wait.
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
When I grow older you will see me rescue you
I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
Andarer
Posts: 15

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Andarer » January 8th, 2018, 5:41 pm

Nemomon wrote:
Andarer wrote:
Nemomon wrote:Renya is dead. There are too many contradictious infos about Renya and Anokata to assume they're the same person. Renya is dead, and someone else is running the show. Possibly to resurrect Renya.

I can't see many contradictions considering how little we know about Renya...

But we do know that he was alive at age 109, 10 years after his supposed death, desperate for more money, with the guts to murder the people he was hiring to find the treasure...

Remember that the whole marijuana plot was a lie.


Even ignoring the fact that Anokata is pretty patient and intelligent person, and Renya was impatient, and had to hire some people to solve a riddle, Renya died like 40 years ago. Fifty years ago the BO was founded (and if Renya would found it, he would not hire some random detectives but use his henchmen), and back then the drug (Silver Bullet) was still in development. Even if Renya took the drug (he probably was impatient, and knew that he might die any moment) even though it was still a prototype, why would Ai's parents still work on it? After all Renya would get what he wanted.

For me Renya died before the drug was completed or even in a useful stage. There is no way would live long enough to take the woring drug. Plus, considering that he was in this very advanced age, Elena and Atsushi probably would be forced to finish the drug as soon as possible, but we didn't see them being rushed. Not to mention that if they were this much important to Anokata and his health condition (he already was nearly dead), they would be treasured within the BO and Anokata probably would even jump on his ears if by doing that he would guarantee their safety. But somehow they both died before finishing the drug, and the BO was willing to harm Shiho (and even kill Akemi even though in their best interest was keeping her alive at least until Shiho will finish the drug) meaning that the drug was not and is not Anokata's top priority.

If Renya took the final drug, there would be no reason for BO to continue working on it and even move to the APTX drug. Because Renya would already get what he wanted. Which means that either the prototype didn't work and Renya died, or the prototype partially worked and Renya is alive, but needs constant medical care (and maybe he must take the drug from time to time). But in this case he wouldn't allow the entire Miyano's family to get killed because he needed them to stay alive. Not to mention that Shiho didn't know what her drug was meant to do which means it wasn't meant to reverse the effects of the Silver Bullet. And since Shiho wasn't in hurry with the drug and works on it means that Renya doesn't need is ASAP, so he probably is dead and it doesn't matter if he will be resurrected tomorrow or in a 10 years, because he can wait.

You're asuming APTX is the only project the organization has, and it's only one of the branches of the main project. I also never said he took the drug whatsoever, just that he somehow went at least 10 years beyond his alledged death date, and that I believe he's alive today.

Karasuma was supposed to be dead 50 years ago. Yes, the same time the organization was founded. It's not asumption, it's flat out his official death date, 50 years ago at the age of 99. Yet he was alive 40 years ago. Somehow, he evaded death for 10 years. Somehow, Vermouth hasn't aged since at least 20 years, and she was active as Sharon Vineyard for a couple of decades before that. So considering the APTX is the only thing that the organization has tried to develop would ignore the fact that we have proof they have had other projects before and one of them at least kept Karasuma alive for 10 years (or potentially, until now), and another kept Vermouth from aging for some decades.

Renya was impatient because he was running out of time. If he somehow found a way to stay alive for, at least, 40 more years (which would be until now, leaving him with 149 years of age), he could patiently develop the BO to get, for starters, a more refined way to get eternal youth. Or just a completely different objetive, after all, there's allegedly an interview where Gosho said that immortality wasn't the BO's purpose.

Also, we're overestimating the alledged cleverness of the boss. The organization makes mistakes. They have shitloads of spies. And he hasn't been able to figure out what's going on with the deaged people. Heck, one of his closest members, Vermouth, is more or less backstabbing him by following her feelings towards a couple of youngsters and he's not noticing it.

https://imgur.com/D8NwOj6

This is from the bad translations, but still, the dates are there. The story about his goods being auctioned and everyone being killed in the auction also matched that he was supposed to have died 10 years prior to them, since they were auctioning a dead man's goods. Of course, the story was a lie and he was alive, but we only discover that later.

Now, since the translation in that one is bad, and I haven't seen any scan of the official english translation there, but here's the Spanish one:

https://imgur.com/pNVFaIU

This is the official translation, scanned from paper, not a scanlation. It states he died 50 years ago and that the auction happened 40 years ago, when he was supposed to be dead. Again, we know that's a lie and he was alive after that.

https://imgur.com/a/c8L1P

And finally, the proof that he was 90 years old 50 years ago.
ShadowNeo
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Fear of death is worse than death Itself.

Posts: 29

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby ShadowNeo » January 9th, 2018, 8:16 am

Sorry, but where exactly does it say that he was still alive 10 years AFTER he died at age 99? Thanks in advance.
"Fear of death is worse than death Itself"
Kor
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Posts: 2945

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Kor » January 9th, 2018, 8:36 am

Okay let's put this in order for a sec.

There's first the auction fabrication story in which it's claimed Karasuma died at the age of 99 "half a century" before the present.
Later, when Senma's admitting the crime, she confirms that he was still alive 40 years before the present.

Also this:
jimmy_kud0_tv2 wrote:As an extra thing, it is never really stated whether or not Karasuma found the treasure. All we can really say for sure is that Senma's father did solve the riddle, and left a clue about it in blood and was never seen again, and that Karasuma never activated the device clock. These imply that Karasuma never knew the answer to the riddle, as he was a greedy person and would have gone and done so if he was aware. Senma claims that Karasuma died at some point after that (between 40 years ago (when the father was hired) and 20 years ago (when she found the clue in his letters)).


So we don't know exactly when he "died" other than that it happened between 40 to 20 years before the series.

Because the age part is mentioned in the false story, we don't know for sure whether it's true or not. Perhaps he truly did "die" at the age of 99, but simply not half a century ago. Or perhaps 99 is just a made up number and we have no clue at what age Karasuma reportedly died.
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Andarer
Posts: 15

Re: Mystery Poll: Poll #28

Postby Andarer » January 9th, 2018, 8:48 am

It's true the age of 99 was indeed given in the false story, but in all honesty, him being one of the most rich and powerfull people of his time, wouldn't his year of birth be known pretty much like we know the ones of walt disney and such?

Ok, maybe his age wasn't confirmed, but I don't see why that part would be a lie. All in all, since it's not confirmed, it can't be used as a fact.

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