Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

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thriceplus
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Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby thriceplus » October 15th, 2014, 7:59 pm

Old user here. Haven't read Conan in ages, but when I heard that the Bourbon arc finally ended after like half a decade, I binged read last night. Honestly, I thought that Bourbon's four chapter "finale" was just a poor man's version of Vermouth's full moon showdown, but then came the kicker at the very end of 898: Rum. Rum. Rum. Rum. Rum.

OK, I'm not sure if anyone else is commenting on the significance of Rum, but this is the first time in 900 chapters of Conan that we meet a character with a higher rank than Gin, whom I will remind we met in Chapter 1. Vermouth's about the same as Gin and obviously "the boss" doesn't count as there's no indication he'll appear anytime soon, but it's clear that we're on Rum's arc and Conan's next showdown is with Rum.

Point is this: we can finally rationally speculate on when Conan's going to end. I think Rum's appearance proves that we're nearing the beginning of the end, since when Guy #2 is after Conan, you know we're in the big leagues now. The only guy scarier than Rum is the boss.

Let's first look at Conan's plot structure... I think Conan really has had 3 major periods.

Act 1 (Chapters 1-175): Prologue
This goes from the very beginning to the introduction of Sherry. There's basically NO real "plot" in this period to this beyond some (albeit key) character development. The BO characters (Akemi, Tequila) appear in like one episode and die as soon as they are introduced. Conan also doesn't have any plan of fighting the BO beyond waiting at the Mouri Detective Agency.

Act 2 (Chapters 176-434): Sherry vs Vermouth
In my opinion, the golden age of Conan. Haibara's appearance really shook up the series by actually giving the plot some form of direction and the arc goes deep into both Haibara and Vermouth and their past. I think this is kinda like the Soul Society arc, as Conan was at the height of its popularity and when people think of Conan, they think of the Matsuda case, Desperate Revival, full moon confrontation, ie this era.

Interlude (Chapters 435-500): Seven Children
The "reset" button. I think this is the major turning point for Conan as Gosho realized that he's divulging too much information for the series to stretch and basically stops a lot of the character development. Yes, there are exceptions, but just look at the casualties, the most obvious of which are Detective Boys. Does anyone remember Ayumi's crush on Conan? Mitsuhiko's on both Ai AND Ayumi? Overnight, they just gave up, went home and turned into cardboard boxes. Also wtf happened to Ai and Vermouth? Yes, they appear, but can we give ONE interesting new thing that we learn about either past chapter 435, neither mind the old lingering questions?

Act 3 (Chapters 501-898): The Infiltration of Kir
The series rises from the ashes by focusing on the new character Kir. This act's a bit harder to pinpoint as it's really two separate arcs: Kir/Eisuke and Akai/Bourbon with the infamous clash in the middle, but the overall theme of successfully infiltrating Kir into the BO is the main focus here. In a way, the plot almost goes backwards. Conan goes from dueling directly with Gin and Vermouth (hell, almost capturing her) and getting the freaking boss's phone number to... dealing with their lackeys (eg Chianti, Korn, Bourbon, etc.) aka guys that VODKA can possibly boss around.

So this brings us to Rum, which is the first time that says that to me that we're nearing the beginning of the end of Conan. So... does this mean that Conan's going to end soon? Well, maybe, but probably not. There will be at least two more acts:

Act 4 (Chapters 899 - ???): Rum
Act 5 (Chapters ??? - ???): The Boss

So what does this mean? Kir's arc lasted almost 10 years (Bourbon's itself almost 7), so I can't see think Rum's arc lasting under 3 years and the boss's arc under 5 and it's quite likely that he will insert another arc in there somewhere (I think Gin having an arc is a good guess since we know nothing about that guy's history). Gosho Aoyama is currently 51, so it really looks like he's got it planned out. At the earliest, I see Conan will last another 9 years until his legal retirement in Japan. But since Gosho's drawing less and less as he gets older, I really can see him going for another..... 20 years even.

TL;DR For the first time in decades, we can see a glimpse of Gosho's future plans with Conan. I think Conan will last until 2025 at the earliest, but more reasonably around 2030 or beyond. What do you guys think?
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Jd- » October 15th, 2014, 8:40 pm

It won't end before File 1000, no matter what. That's for certain. Judging by what happens with other mangas, I'm sure the end will be announced a couple of years in advance (as in, "we're entering the final arc now"). That could go on for five years, knowing Gosho.

My personal take, whenever asked if there's any sign that Conan's ending, is that it's at least five years away from that time. Until there's some indication otherwise, it's safe to assume that all of the many, many things that have to converge for this series to end properly have not yet come together.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Kudo Shinchi » October 15th, 2014, 11:27 pm

Thank you! I’m glad someone realizes the magnitude of Rum’s reveal. He’s the second in command, which is pretty much a confirmation that the arc after this one is the final one, the boss arc. So yes, in a way this is the first concrete confirmation we have that we are nearing the end. Still, the signs to this have all been there for a while. I made a topic about this around over two years ago: http://forums.dctp.ws/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9183

Now, obviously I was wrong on a few things. The Bourbon arc’s finale was not the insane, game-changing climax I expected (though I certainly enjoyed it more than most here.) It only wrapped up the immediate plot threads while opening up even more mysteries. However, that doesn’t nullify the significant progress made in the Bourbon arc in several areas which usually goes unacknowledged. Going by your model, Act 3 made a lot more progress in story terms than appears on the surface. In superficial terms the plot seemed to stagnate, but on the contrary, it was setting into motion the beginning of plots that are likely going to play a big role in the end. I think it’s clear now that the reason that there are so many leftover plot threads from the Bourbon arc is because it is not time to resolve them, just like the Itakura mystery was left unsolved by the end of the Vermouth arc. I presume those mysteries will be answered either in the Rum arc or what comes after.

But to get back to my point. Consider certain things in the Kir/Bourbon arc:

-Akai’s faked death. So Akai is undercover as Subaru, protecting Haibara. This entire thread is focused a lot on Akai and Haibara’s eventual confrontation, which has been foreshadowed since the Vermouth arc. Akemi’s unknown P.S., as well as Haibara’s recent suspicions of Subaru being Moroboshi Dai, point towards where this thread is going. I thought it would be resolved in the Bourbon arc, but evidently its resolution will be a huge event, which is why it was left unfinished at the end of the Bourbon arc. Still, make no mistake, this subplot is very much still relevant. Haibara’s suspicions won’t just vanish. Akai protecting Haibara as Subaru is meant as him redeeming himself for his role in her sister’s death, and will probably be what causes Haibara to forgive him eventually.

-Ran’s suspicions. This thread has been developing since the beginning of the Bourbon arc, as detailed in the topic linked above. Its absurd length is an indication, I think, that this is indeed the final suspicion arc. Again, it’s too big a plot to be resolved in the Bourbon arc when there are seemingly two more arcs to go, hence the reason it remains unfinished. Until then, I suppose we’ll continue to get strong hints of Ran’s suspicions every time she appears. What’s important is that the Bourbon arc set this into motion. Sera’s presence is obviously pushing Ran in that direction as well. Which leads to…

-Sera, the middle brother, and the mystery child. The most controversial elements of the Bourbon arc. I think it’s interesting how late the middle brother and the mystery child were introduced in the Bourbon arc, literally in the last portion. As such, it makes sense that they are intended to last beyond the Bourbon arc, which is why they remain unresolved. Note that Sera, sometimes seen as Eisuke 2.0, is still around, and apparently has a history with Ran and Conan. That basically amounts to Sera having more staying power as a character. Unlike Eisuke, who mainly served as a suspicious force and a connection to the more important characters of the arc, Sera is more important in almost every single way. Actually has a past with Conan, has mysterious family members bouncing about, is the sister of a major, major character, and is the primary force pushing Ran’s suspicions. In short, she’s here to stay, as well as the middle brother and mystery child, whose actual purpose in the story remains a bit of a mystery. Since they are yet to be resolved, however, it is likely something important, especially in the case of the mystery girl. We’ve barely scratched the surface with Sera, and Gosho’s really stretching it out, so it’s probably very important. Noticing a possible patternn?
-Bourbon. Virtually everything about Bourbon remains a mystery. We’ve received hints, but like Sera, you get the impression that we’ve barely gotten into the true meat of his character (impressive, considering how great he’s been so far). Since Bourbon is connected in some way to Elena, his backstory is likely very important. We still don’t know why he hates Akai and the FBI, aside from a few hints, so it’s likely very important in that Gosho can’t reveal it yet.

-Romance. Not a very popular aspect of the DC manga around here, but it still exists nonetheless. There has been a lot of progress from the romance side of things, most of which occurred in the Bourbon arc. Think about it: Takagi and Sato are officially a couple, as are Kobayashi and Shiratori, Shinichi has confessed to Ran, Hattori has (kinda) confessed to Kazuha, Yumi and Shuukichi are moving closer together, and in general almost all of the romance subplots in DC are coming to a close, very gradually. Another sign of an ending in the foreseeable future, I think…

Old plot points return- Already mentioned in the thread linked above. Since then, the trend has continued, with Elena explicably becoming especially relevant again since she’s tied into Amuro’s story. I’d like to point out Shuukichi’s relation to Shogi and how that relates to Itakura’s program. If Shuukichi was just another character, it could be just a coincidence, but since it’s been heavily implied he’s the middle brother, well….

The point I’m making is that the Bourbon arc set into motion several significant events/arcs that when taken together, point towards an approaching conclusion, however long it may take to get there. Before, it was a manner of “If Detective Conan will end,” now it’s more along the lines of “When will DC end?” It’s an important distinction.

All that said, I’m curious as to how the Rum arc will play out. Right now Gosho seems to be giving equal importance to Sera’s story and Rum’s, which makes me think this arc won’t follow the structure that Gosho’s been using for his major arcs since the Vermouth arc. The last portion of the Bourbon arc followed no particular basic structure, and it’s possible Rum’s arc won’t either. I mean, is Gosho going to introduce a few suspects who could be Rum, one or two a red herring and the other the real one, or is he doing something different? It’s been about 10 chapters since we discovered Rum’s existence, and all we have are a few descriptions of him. I wonder if the sheer amount of unresolved mysteries left over from the Bourbon arc will take up a lot of space in the Rum arc so that Gosho won’t have to use the same formula? Or, of course, I could be completely wrong and he will, but it’s something to keep in mind.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Jd- » October 16th, 2014, 12:50 am

Kudo Shinchi wrote:Thank you! I’m glad someone realizes the magnitude of Rum’s reveal. He’s the second in command, which is pretty much a confirmation that the arc after this one is the final one, the boss arc.

Keep in mind that Rum has not been "revealed" and judging by Gosho's pacing, we may not see a grand Rum "reveal" or confrontation until File 1000 (likely sometime in early 2017). Of course, I hope it's long before then and File 1000 is something even bigger, but after this recent Black Org case, I'm going to keep my expectations in check on that front.

I also want to point out that many people felt the series was about to start winding down during the Clash arc. They felt, "OK, this is it! Finally, going head-to-head with the Black Organization! The gloves are off!". That was nearly a decade ago now, and all that time later, we've only just now got "confirmation" that Akai is alive. There's absolutely no reason at all that Gosho can't write in new characters and plotlines to "delay" (for lack of a better word) the series conclusion. He's done it plenty of times with stories that have not paid off or led to anything significant whatsoever, such as with the boss's phone number plot.

What's important to remember is: Every development in the main plot for Conan could conventionally be construed to point toward some degree of finality or resolution, but none have yet to actually do so. The London case could have been a gamechanger that led to a seismic shift in the Shinichi and Ran dynamic; creating a rippling effect throughout the entire series. Back during Clash, a great deal of people were ecstatic at the prospect of having a mole (Kir) in the Black Organization, with James going as far as to call her their wedge of steel. Even though we all already knew Akai's death was faked from the file it happened, there was still some hope that Kir being in the organization would bring us much closer to the boss and the end game. That was, again, almost a decade ago now. Not only has she hardly appeared at all since then, the only thing she has done is mention that Bourbon was hot on the case . . . someone who turned out to be a good guy. There is no reason to expect the Rum arc won't lead to similar plot advances and sidesteps, not at this point. So, while something may be appearing to send us right to the end of the series, you should brace yourself for a completely different reality.

All I'm saying is: Don't get your hopes up about the "final arc" coming anytime soon or even being the next arc. If the Rum arc is the penultimate one, you're going to see the "final arc" last for at least 8 years. Pacing in Conan comes very slowly and is perpetually "on hold" as it were, given the structure of the series not deliberately lending itself to steady progression. Once you see this kind of thing happen enough, it's a lot easier to level with the ups and the downs.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Kudo Shinchi » October 16th, 2014, 4:48 pm

@Jd To quote myself:

The point I’m making is that the Bourbon arc set into motion several significant events/arcs that when taken together, point towards an approaching conclusion, [url]however long it may take to get there[/url].


I'm not expecting Gosho to end DC this year, or next year, or the year after that, or the year after that. What I am expecting, though, is that he will do so in 5-10 years. Of course Rum hasn't actually been 'revealed,' but his existence has, and that's what I think is significant. I don't think we have many story arcs left. Sure, the few left could go on for a long time, but my point is that we can now with a certain degree of confidence say that Detective Conan is gradually heading to some sort of conclusion.

I know that every few years some people pop up and say that DC is ending soon, so I understand the skepticism. Still, I think some fans have become too skeptical. Just because the manga has lasted for decades doesn't mean it will go on forever. Gosho confirming that he has an ending in mind, and that DC won't last longer than the longest manga ever (forgot the title), and his uncertainty about whether or not he will reach volume 100 point to Gosho planning to end the series someday, whether sooner or later. I just think it's the former. Back when the Kir arc was unfolding, I never thought that things were winding down myself, because although the progress made in Clash was significant in terms of the Black Organization plot, there was absolutely nothing else to point to an approaching end. Shinichi and Ran had still made no progress in their relationship; for that matter, none of the teased couples had actually gotten together at that point. The old plot points from the Vermouth arc, the big questions, were never brought up to our attention again. IMO there were very little indicators of anything.

I think we're in a different place now. I've already stated all my reasoning in the post above and the thread that I linked. I don't think we're suddenly going to thrown into a boss confrontation tomorrow, but I do think that we're actually on our way there now, when before the Bourbon arc you couldn't say that with any sort of confidence. The progress remains very, very gradual, because this is DC, but it's definitely there, IMO.

I hope you don't make me eat my words, Gosho :P
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Kor » October 16th, 2014, 5:12 pm

Kudo Shinchi wrote:I'm not expecting Gosho to end DC this year, or next year, or the year after that, or the year after that. What I am expecting, though, is that he will do so in 5-10 years. Of course Rum hasn't actually been 'revealed,' but his existence has, and that's what I think is significant. I don't think we have many story arcs left. Sure, the few left could go on for a long time, but my point is that we can now with a certain degree of confidence say that Detective Conan is gradually heading to some sort of conclusion.


I think part of Jd-'s point is that Gosho can always invent new story arcs, mysteries and plot lines in order to delay the ending, so it doesn't matter how many story arcs are seemingly left, cause Gosho might make new ones. Gosho has already done this in the past.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Kudo Shinchi » October 16th, 2014, 5:41 pm

Kor wrote:
Kudo Shinchi wrote:I'm not expecting Gosho to end DC this year, or next year, or the year after that, or the year after that. What I am expecting, though, is that he will do so in 5-10 years. Of course Rum hasn't actually been 'revealed,' but his existence has, and that's what I think is significant. I don't think we have many story arcs left. Sure, the few left could go on for a long time, but my point is that we can now with a certain degree of confidence say that Detective Conan is gradually heading to some sort of conclusion.


I think part of Jd-'s point is that Gosho can always invent new story arcs, mysteries and plot lines in order to delay the ending, so it doesn't matter how many story arcs are seemingly left, cause Gosho might make new ones. Gosho has already done this in the past.


Yes, of course he can, but why specify Rum as the second-in-command if he was going to go and put extra arcs in between? Not saying it isn't possible he might throw in extra stuff (as if he needs to with all of unresolved threads he's got going....), but I think it's rather unlikely. Could still be wrong of course.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby thriceplus » October 17th, 2014, 4:12 pm

Kor wrote:
Kudo Shinchi wrote:I'm not expecting Gosho to end DC this year, or next year, or the year after that, or the year after that. What I am expecting, though, is that he will do so in 5-10 years. Of course Rum hasn't actually been 'revealed,' but his existence has, and that's what I think is significant. I don't think we have many story arcs left. Sure, the few left could go on for a long time, but my point is that we can now with a certain degree of confidence say that Detective Conan is gradually heading to some sort of conclusion.


I think part of Jd-'s point is that Gosho can always invent new story arcs, mysteries and plot lines in order to delay the ending, so it doesn't matter how many story arcs are seemingly left, cause Gosho might make new ones. Gosho has already done this in the past.


Yeah, of course he can add extra arcs, but I think the reality is much more complicated than that. I would completely agree with you if Gosho's 20, but he's 51 for Christ's sake, so adding an extra arc at this point is not something to be said lightly, especially since he just spent 7 years on Bourbon, a character who's relevance to the plot is arguably less than Vodka. If he pulls that stunt again, he'll almost be legally retired in Japan.

One thing I've always feared is that Conan won't finish, either by choice or by age. Gosho's getting old and it's clear that his speed of drawing Conan's deteriorated immensely and there's no reason to believe that this won't stop. The introduction of Rum (and yes, he WILL appear within the next year, since it makes no sense for Kir to text Akai otherwise) is a huge step forward for a plot that's been going nowhere for the past decade and I don't think it's a coincidence that Rum's being introduced at this point in Gosho's career.

You realize that Gosho could easily pull another Bourbon on us and make Conan go around another decade tracking down Vodka's shoe polisher, Vermouth's dentist or some other random crap like that. Rum is different. There's no doubt that Rum's arc will reveal much more about the Black Organization and its objectives, since just knowing the age, personal history, etc of Rum can completely change our understanding of how the organization works. As I've mentioned, I think this shows that Gosho has a specific timeframe for the plot in mind since about the end of Vermouth's arc. From the looks of it, he is entirely determined to finish the series and is timing it to end the final chapter of Conan right at his retirement.

To me, there are only two more plot milestones left in Conan that can top Rum's appearance: the appearance of the boss and the exploration of Gin's background. Too bad neither would occur in the next while though.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby k11chi » October 17th, 2014, 6:37 pm

^ Those moments would only fit the climax of the series, there are alot more things to go through.

Anyway, first we need to see how this build-up goes. Last case ended with some kind of lead on RUM/Rum in the usual fashion that doesn't look like it's being rushed.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Jd- » October 17th, 2014, 7:21 pm

thriceplus wrote:Yeah, of course he can add extra arcs, but I think the reality is much more complicated than that. I would completely agree with you if Gosho's 20, but he's 51 for Christ's sake, so adding an extra arc at this point is not something to be said lightly, especially since he just spent 7 years on Bourbon, a character who's relevance to the plot is arguably less than Vodka. If he pulls that stunt again, he'll almost be legally retired in Japan.

In the anime and manga game, 51 is just the beginning. Successful manga creators and anime voice actors/directors rarely tend to actually retire--especially those that enjoy the work and feel they can have sustained success. Agasa's voice actor is in his 70s, James's (who died recently) was 80. I don't think you'll see Gosho "retire" or completely reduce his output, whatever series that may be in, until he's at least in his mid 70s. Conan's voice actress is 50 now, too, to note.

If anything, noting that Gosho is only 51 is making the opposite point, as far as I'm concerned. He could very, very easily do this another 20 years and be right in line with the norm. Personally, I just don't think he's ready to end it yet and don't think he will for a long, long time. That isn't to say he'll just put it off perpetually--I'm sure there will be some exciting events that happen along the way, but an actual ending? Not happening anytime soon, if you ask me.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Kor » October 17th, 2014, 7:32 pm

thriceplus wrote:As I've mentioned, I think this shows that Gosho has a specific timeframe for the plot in mind since about the end of Vermouth's arc. From the looks of it, he is entirely determined to finish the series and is timing it to end the final chapter of Conan right at his retirement.


This isn't how it works. If Conan suddenly stopped being popular, and the movies start to tank, and the anime would sink in ratings, and the volumes won't sell, then this series would most likely be over.
The reason why this series has been going for so long isn't because Gosho has some sort of a masterplan for the plot or story structure. It's because this series is incredibly popular, it generates money, and the people behind this franchise (Gosho, his publishers and probably TMS too) don't seem interested in ending it.
A lot of the stuff that happens doesn't even necessarily depend on what Gosho wants. If the editor or publisher says it's probably time to move on to a new arc, Gosho would probably wrap up things and move on to a new arc. It heavily depends on what works, and how readers react to it.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Kudo Shinchi » October 17th, 2014, 8:35 pm

especially since he just spent 7 years on Bourbon, a character who's relevance to the plot is arguably less than Vodka.


Sorry, but I just have to say this: don't assume that so quickly. Bourbon has a connection to Elena, one of the most important plot characters in terms of BO backstory, has an mysterious past, is the first named member of Japanese law enforcement (which, while significant in itself, gains greater importance when you consider some things from the cellphone arc), has an unresolved rivalry with Akai, and apparently knows one of Vermouth's deepest secrets, and has enough power over her to blackmail her. Regardless of what you think of Bourbon's relevance, it's more than that of Vodka :P (I realize you're probably using hyperbole, but I just had to point that out.)

Also, I notice how everyone takes for granted that Gosho wants Detective Conan to keep going, when in honestly...I don't think he really does. He seems to have gotten somewhat tired of the series. He alludes to this in basically every interview he's had for the last few years. He talks a lot about how busy he is because of DC, how taxing it is, how working on Yaiba was much easier, and how he'd like to write other manga but is too busy with DC. Look at his repeated breaks over recent years so he could write some Magic Kaito, his random one-shot Tell Me A Lie, and his mentioning in interviews how he's begun to outline plans for other manga he has in mind. I don't think that he dislikes writing DC (he clearly still cares about the quality of his manga, even if he's made a few clumsy writing decisions over the past few years), but I think he's about ready to begin wrapping up, in his usual gradual style.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby thriceplus » October 17th, 2014, 9:31 pm

Kor wrote:
thriceplus wrote:As I've mentioned, I think this shows that Gosho has a specific timeframe for the plot in mind since about the end of Vermouth's arc. From the looks of it, he is entirely determined to finish the series and is timing it to end the final chapter of Conan right at his retirement.


This isn't how it works. If Conan suddenly stopped being popular, and the movies start to tank, and the anime would sink in ratings, and the volumes won't sell, then this series would most likely be over.
The reason why this series has been going for so long isn't because Gosho has some sort of a masterplan for the plot or story structure. It's because this series is incredibly popular, it generates money, and the people behind this franchise (Gosho, his publishers and probably TMS too) don't seem interested in ending it.
A lot of the stuff that happens doesn't even necessarily depend on what Gosho wants. If the editor or publisher says it's probably time to move on to a new arc, Gosho would probably wrap up things and move on to a new arc. It heavily depends on what works, and how readers react to it.


Come on dawg, really? Really? Yeah, this might be true for almost any other series except Conan, but Conan is arguably one of the top 10 most successful manga franchises in the history of Japan. Gosho is the JK Rowling of Shonen Sunday and when you are JK Rowling, people don't tell you what you do, you tell them what to do. Do you really think Gosho doesn't have full creative control over Conan and he must listen to his editors? No way, Jose, I don't even think Jump would dare touch Gosho, much less the already struggling Sunday. Rin-ne's been a complete flop for the last 6 years lol, but do you think Sunday will really tell Takahashi that she must pack up and go home? There are just certain perks you enjoy after you sell 150 million copies of your manga for the company and generate god knows how much additional income through other means. Conan's popularity sinking so low that Sunday will meddle with or even cancel is too low to even be plausible.

Jd- wrote:
thriceplus wrote:Yeah, of course he can add extra arcs, but I think the reality is much more complicated than that. I would completely agree with you if Gosho's 20, but he's 51 for Christ's sake, so adding an extra arc at this point is not something to be said lightly, especially since he just spent 7 years on Bourbon, a character who's relevance to the plot is arguably less than Vodka. If he pulls that stunt again, he'll almost be legally retired in Japan.

In the anime and manga game, 51 is just the beginning. Successful manga creators and anime voice actors/directors rarely tend to actually retire--especially those that enjoy the work and feel they can have sustained success. Agasa's voice actor is in his 70s, James's (who died recently) was 80. I don't think you'll see Gosho "retire" or completely reduce his output, whatever series that may be in, until he's at least in his mid 70s. Conan's voice actress is 50 now, too, to note.

If anything, noting that Gosho is only 51 is making the opposite point, as far as I'm concerned. He could very, very easily do this another 20 years and be right in line with the norm. Personally, I just don't think he's ready to end it yet and don't think he will for a long, long time. That isn't to say he'll just put it off perpetually--I'm sure there will be some exciting events that happen along the way, but an actual ending? Not happening anytime soon, if you ask me.


I'm not sure what we gain by comparing Gosho Aoyoma to an average manga, anime creator. Drawing weekly manga is one of THE most demanding careers you can possibly have, way more demanding than overseeing some anime division, occasionally providing voices for some anime or drawing even monthly manga. Yeah, I almost doubt he'll be 65 and pumping out manga week after week. He'll likely be pulling a HxH soon and this will drastically slow the already snail speed of Conan. Anyways, all I said earlier was that people shouldn't underestimate how slow the arcs will be from now on, as there could only be two left but he could take 20 years to get there even without any fillers.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby thriceplus » October 17th, 2014, 9:48 pm

Kudo Shinchi wrote:
especially since he just spent 7 years on Bourbon, a character who's relevance to the plot is arguably less than Vodka.


Sorry, but I just have to say this: don't assume that so quickly. Bourbon has a connection to Elena, one of the most important plot characters in terms of BO backstory, has an mysterious past, is the first named member of Japanese law enforcement (which, while significant in itself, gains greater importance when you consider some things from the cellphone arc), has an unresolved rivalry with Akai, and apparently knows one of Vermouth's deepest secrets, and has enough power over her to blackmail her. Regardless of what you think of Bourbon's relevance, it's more than that of Vodka :P (I realize you're probably using hyperbole, but I just had to point that out.)

Also, I notice how everyone takes for granted that Gosho wants Detective Conan to keep going, when in honestly...I don't think he really does. He seems to have gotten somewhat tired of the series. He alludes to this in basically every interview he's had for the last few years. He talks a lot about how busy he is because of DC, how taxing it is, how working on Yaiba was much easier, and how he'd like to write other manga but is too busy with DC. Look at his repeated breaks over recent years so he could write some Magic Kaito, his random one-shot Tell Me A Lie, and his mentioning in interviews how he's begun to outline plans for other manga he has in mind. I don't think that he dislikes writing DC (he clearly still cares about the quality of his manga, even if he's made a few clumsy writing decisions over the past few years), but I think he's about ready to begin wrapping up, in his usual gradual style.


Lol, what I meant was that if the Bourbon arc took place before Sherry/Vermouth, it would have been much more satisfying. I'm sorry but Sherry/Vermouth are way more interesting and relevant to the plot than Bourbon ever was, as Sherry created the freaking APTX and Vermouth is the boss's favorite and her aging mystery seems linked to the entire existence of the Black Organization. Not only that, but Conan got the boss's phone number, which is huge. It's like if Ichigo was fighting Ichimaru Gin and Tosen in the Soul Society arc. And then suddenly, he stops and spends the next seven years doing nothing but fighting random scrubs, with no hint of going back to fight the big boys. It just feels like the plot's on pause, no matter how great the characters actually are.

Also, don't underestimate my boy Vodka! He's one of the few characters that appeared since day 1 of Conan, so I think he's very significant to the plot. Come on, just think of the fabled bromance between Gin and Vodka. Gin seems like the type that'll kill somebody if accidentally make the wrong turn or something super trivial, so the fact that Vodka's still working under Gin is only makes him more legendary.
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Re: Conan's Pacing: Are We FINALLY at the Beginning of the End of Conan?

Postby Jd- » October 18th, 2014, 2:36 am

thriceplus wrote:I'm not sure what we gain by comparing Gosho Aoyoma to an average manga, anime creator. Drawing weekly manga is one of THE most demanding careers you can possibly have, way more demanding than overseeing some anime division, occasionally providing voices for some anime or drawing even monthly manga.

He's worked for two decades without taking a major hiatus. As I said up there, "those that enjoy the work and feel they can have sustained success" are not likely to retire anytime soon. However, there's another key motivator for Gosho: the anime series and, most imperatively, the movies.

The bottom line here is Gosho won't stop the manga anytime soon. That's just how it is. He very well may slow his own output (he had a bit of a down year this year, partially due to a World Cup trip), but that won't end the series any faster. He knows that many people's jobs depend on him (those working on the anime and movies) and Shounen Sunday is dead in the water without Conan now that Inuyasha and MAJOR are long gone. They've tried to lure other talents to create long-running series for the magazine but nothing sticks. Their numbers have decreased significantly compared to Shounen Jump and other shounen manga magazines--the only thing keeping them competitive is the fact that Conan appears in it. Take Conan away, and the magazine will lose a sizable chunk of its circulation and very likely be in for hard times.

I know some fans say the TV series and movies can continue indefinitely even if the manga ends, with AOs and the usual movie structure, but that's not how things will work for this series. The manga, anime, and movies of Conan are a three-headed monster that provide a perpetual advertising apparatus for one another. When one goes down, it will have a very noticeable effect on the others. The anime may take on a new form after it "ends", but it will not be anything like what it has now. The movies have recently begun to see considerable overseas distribution in theaters, with new countries likely to join the annual game very soon. Once that end-game occurs in the manga, and then a year later in the anime, there will be a greatly diminished appetite for new things Conan. Everything will be affected. That's just how it's going to be in this situation, where we have a very long-running series with no hint of an end in sight for so long. Once that end comes and passes, it will really dull every permutation they come up with in terms of side stories and "while he was still Conan" (as if we'd have not seen that enough by then) continuations.

In other words: So long as the anime is pulling in ratings and the movies continue to turn enormous, guaranteed profits, he's not going to end it without a very, very, very slow wind-down.

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