Espionage - Round Nine - The Spy escapes

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Nemomon
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Nemomon » April 20th, 2017, 8:50 am

Yeah, but I didn't edit it, because back then I didn't think that whether I will write "three" or "four" will matter. I was pointing out that Jecka appears on all of lists (which checking also took some of seconds), and back then only that mattered.
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Memesu » April 20th, 2017, 9:12 am

MoonRaven wrote:Voting myself simply because I can't be bothered to log into the manager.

.___.

...Yeah, I think I'm going to vote Moony too. She was the last to post her list.

EDIT: Also because I'm disappointed.
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby shinichi'sapprentice » April 20th, 2017, 11:05 am

Crap. I fell asllep too much and now only have less than three hours before I have to leave for work ._.

After reading all of the posts since my last one, it seems like most people agree on lynching Moon... Personally, I was still a little bit undecided on my opinion on her but now, just like Meme, I am also disappointed with her defense. Looking at you, too, Kamite. I'm about to slap you with a trout.

While we're on the topic of discussing the lists however, I will now would like to explain why I thought Nemomon could be the SPY...

Memesu wrote:
Iwamoto Yuri
Moonraven
Jecka
Kaitorizu
shinichi'sapprentice
Stopwatch


Nemomon wrote:My list:

1. MoonRaven
2. shinichi'sapprentice
3. Stopwatch
4. Jecka
5. KaitoRizu
6. Iwamoto Yuri


Nemomon's list looks exactly the same as Memesu's.

I'm not sure if I'm the only one who noticed this. However, thanks, Kleene, for pointing out the people who posted their lists with a different formatting. I didn't really copied mine from the manager either but typed everything out with numbers just like how I wrote it down on my notes. I don't remember either how often a list would be repeated for another person? I thought it's always different for each player. If I am right, in a previous round where I died the same phase as the detective, I noted down all of the lists and immediately had dumytru's (spy at that time) list caught my attention because it was very similar to mine.

At this point, I think I might also be voting for Moon. Nemomon is still my next top suspect. It would be best if people post who their next SPY suspect now if we fail to lynch the real one today. People tend to just jump on others' nomination especially when they think they're safe from lynching. This way, too, we can see if anyone else instantly changes their opinions just to save themselves if put on the spot.

So far, here is what everyone has shared. Sorry, if I missed yours:

TOP SPY SUSPECTS:

  • bash7353: MoonRaven, Kleene Onigiri
  • Nemomon: MoonRaven, ???
  • Memesu: MoonRaven, ???
  • Kamite: shinichi'sapprentice, ???
  • Kleene Onigiri: MoonRaven, Nemomon



tl;dr

Top Spy Suspect (atm): Nemomon
Other Spy Suspects (ranked in order): MoonRaven, Kamite, Memesu, bash7353, Kleene Onigiri
DEFINITELY NOT SPY: shinichi'sapprentice, Jecka
Might Not be SPY: Iwamoto Yuri

might be voting Moon this phase however...
Nemomon
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Nemomon » April 20th, 2017, 11:36 am

If Moonie is not the Spy, tomorrow I might vote on You on Bash. Either the Spy is silent and is waiting for the day of winning to come, or is super active (and is pointing fingers on others) and is trying to avoid being lynched accidentally.

Be aware that tomorrow I'm going to work, so I will vote on someone and until the end of the phase I will be unable to change my vote. I will vote in ~13 hours from now on.
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
When I grow older you will see me rescue you
I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
Nemomon
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Nemomon » April 20th, 2017, 11:39 am

As for the list, it is generated randomly. Since we only had 13 players in total, and 2 of them had to appear on the list, the remaining four players had a pretty high chance of appearing on two or more lists.
My dad’s a soldier blue I’ll be a soldier, too
When I grow older you will see me rescue you
I’ll teach you this old song so you can sing along
When I am dead and gone the day won’t be so long.
bash7353

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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby bash7353 » April 20th, 2017, 11:49 am

I remember speaking to dumytru about this way back. From what I remember he said he did not make sure the Manager wouldn't return the same set of names for multiple list during one and the same game. Because of that we removed the word 'unique' from the rules. Before the Manager, the rules said that every list had to be unique. I remember comparing all the lists I generated when I was game master to make sure they satisfied that condition, but that those rule have since been changed.

I will say, though, that while possible, it is quite unlikely that for two players to receive the same list. Nemo could theoretically have copied the list from Memesu in order to make sure it'll look genuine. So it's definitely a nice catch, 10221. If Moon turns out to be innocent, maybe we need to revisit him. For now, I'll stick with Moon, though.

MoonRaven (4): Nemomon, bash7353, Memesu, 10221
What about everybody else?
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Kleene Onigiri » April 20th, 2017, 12:51 pm

bash7353 wrote:I will say, though, that while possible, it is quite unlikely that for two players to receive the same list. Nemo could theoretically have copied the list from Memesu in order to make sure it'll look genuine. So it's definitely a nice catch, 10221. If Moon turns out to be innocent, maybe we need to revisit him. For now, I'll stick with Moon, though.


a 7% chance I think
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby dumytru » April 20th, 2017, 12:59 pm

Kleene Onigiri wrote:
bash7353 wrote:I will say, though, that while possible, it is quite unlikely that for two players to receive the same list. Nemo could theoretically have copied the list from Memesu in order to make sure it'll look genuine. So it's definitely a nice catch, 10221. If Moon turns out to be innocent, maybe we need to revisit him. For now, I'll stick with Moon, though.


a 7% chance I think


I really shouldn't say anything while the game is still ongoing, but I got 13.5% ??? I might be wrong though, been a while since I did statistics.
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby shinichi'sapprentice » April 20th, 2017, 1:13 pm

Suddenly, math. v:

*flees*

I fell asllep again. I need to get ready to leave. Will check phase results on my phone.
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby MoonRaven » April 20th, 2017, 1:29 pm

Wow, I'm probably getting everyone's votes. I think that's going to be a record or something?

Anyways, feel disappointed all you want but I'm tired. You're pointing fingers at me only because I didn't happen to reread game rules before starting and happened to comment on it and then because I didn't stalk the phase change here like the rest of you did. Bo-hoo. I don't care.
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Iwamoto Yuri » April 20th, 2017, 1:51 pm

Well then, I'm not voting Moon <_<
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby Jecka » April 20th, 2017, 1:56 pm

dumytru wrote:
Jecka wrote:HOW IS IT THIS LATE IN THE GAME
I'm glad I can trust people to remind me of things.
/complete sarcasm I hate you all

10 other people and no one bothered? >:T </3 All of you
Still wondering why I'm not dead tho :V


Sorry, I wasn't actually sure you weren't active.

Always best to ask. Especially since some people know I work evening/nights so I tend not to do anything during the day *side-eyes IRC*
I know "the no talking about Spy outside of the game" thing, but just checking in is ok right? .-.

Anyway I'm less mad now. Sorry for that.


Since it seems like It's going to end soon, I'll try to come on more but I have work again tonight and I have things to do today so....:V
Yeah Idk who to vote and there's less than 2 minutes, what do? D:
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bash7353

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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby bash7353 » April 20th, 2017, 2:01 pm

It's actually pretty complicated to calculate because you have to account for the fact that someone's list will contain Civilians' names and therefore it won't be possible that they are identical to those Civilians' lists because it is impossible for a Civilian to appear on his or her own list. You also have to account for the fact that the Spy may or may not appear on a list.

I've actually written a program to simulate the list generating process for all ten Civilians in the game and have let it run 10,000 times. Turns out that in 1,188 cases, there were lists that are identical given to different players. Can't be sure it's all 100% correct, though. And it only applies to a 13 player game.

But it does seem more likely to happen than I initially thought.
"Jo mere uenig du er med nogen, jo pænere skal du tale til dem. Tal om indholdet. Brug tid på indholdet. Forhold dig til det, der diskuteres. Lyt til, hvad der bliver sagt, i stedet for hvem der siger det. Hvis vi skal gøre det her med demokratiet bedre, så starter vi der."
描いた夢は叶わないことの方が多い
秀れた人を羨んでは自分が嫌になる
浅い眠りに押し潰されそう夜もある
優しい隣人が陰で牙を向いていたり

惰性で観てたテレビ消すみたいに生きる
ことを時々辞めたくなる

人生は苦痛ですか 成功が全てですか
僕はあなたにあなたに ただ逢いたいだけ
信じたい嘘 効かない薬 帰れないサヨナラ
叫べ叫べ叫べ   逢いたいだけ
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Kleene Onigiri
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 4

Postby Kleene Onigiri » April 20th, 2017, 2:11 pm

Isn't is simply 4 out of 7 people?
List is 6 long and 2 people are fixed (detective+informant), so 4 variable slots. And at that time it was 7 people that could put into those slots (not counting yourself, since I think you can't appear on your own list, and not counting Jecka as the informant).
I might have used the wrong formula tho XD
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Re: Espionage - Round Nine - Day 3

Postby dumytru » April 20th, 2017, 2:15 pm

bash7353 wrote:It's actually pretty complicated to calculate because you have to account for the fact that someone's list will contain Civilians' names and therefore it won't be possible that they are identical to those Civilians' lists because it is impossible for a Civilian to appear on his or her own list. You also have to account for the fact that the Spy may or may not appear on a list.

I've actually written a program to simulate the list generating process for all ten Civilians in the game and have let it run 10,000 times. Turns out that in 1,188 cases, there were lists that are identical given to different players. Can't be sure it's all 100% correct, though. And it only applies to a 13 player game.

But it does seem more likely to happen than I initially thought.


Ah, I've forgotten that "it is impossible for a Civilian to appear on his or her own list" when I did the math. Taking that into consideration, it it's around 21.1% (that's huge, wow).
shinichi'sapprentice wrote:dumytru hasn't acted very 'evil-like', but that's his specialty though...


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