Alright, first off I'd like to thank Stopwatch for GMing for us. Thanks Stop! *hugs*
What an exciting game. I was having a Sherlock movie night with friends earlier and was unable to keep myself from constantly checking my iphone for new developments until the day ended.
I investigated miyano_shiho, RoboG55, Kamite, Edogawa4869, Togop and Breva.
I assumed that the spy was one of the less active players, which did turn out to be the case. Raiden and Breva were actually my top suspects for spy today, all things considered, so when Togop suggested Raiden I was most happy to join in, otherwise I would probably have tried to get people to vote Breva with me and investigated Raiden instead.
I was pretty sure I was going to die today though, so I decided to ninja-post my list of remaining suspects besides Raiden shortly before the end of the day, in order of likelihood:
Fujiwara wrote:For tomorrow, I'd like for us to vote for one of the following:
I was confident that if I died the civilians would stand a good chance of winning if they followed that list. Of course, at the time I composed the post I was pretty confident that our 4-people alliance would manage to vote out Raiden, but then as time went on people were doubting the likelihood of Raiden being the spy and I got very anxious that if we didn't vote him out today and I died no one would consider voting him out tomorrow. Probabilities, people, probabilities!
Mathematically everyone has the exact same chance of being the spy/detective/whatever, even though this may seem counter-intuitive.
Now, what I really, really need to say: Curse you, Jd-, for making me so suspicious of you on Day 1!!
Jd- wrote:I'll be a liiittle be quieter this game just due to some commitments that'll make me miss phase changes, but I'll still show up 'round this time each day to help solve dem mysteriez.
My #1 advice right now: Watch what people are saying. There are two informants, and now the Spy has delivered messages to each of them by now. They somehow have to signal to the Spy who they are in this topic, so we should be on the lookout for suspicious behavior.
You were my #1 suspect for informant from the very beginning and when you actually started writing your long deliberations I couldn't help but regard everything you wrote with suspicion. In fact, I thought Togop was a civilian for the longest time and only investigated him because you presented him as definitely a civilian together with googleearth and then googleearth died, being proven a civilian. It just made me think I should make sure, because if Togop was
the spy, no one would suspect it and we'd all be screwed.
In the end, it was your defense of me which eventually led to my (mostly) trusting you, but not in the way you might expect. Since your reasoning for why I should be civilian was completely irrational and I know you to be a rational person, there were two possibilities: Either you were an informant and had just told the spy to kill me, or you were a civilian with me on their list and wanted to protect me because I might very well be the detective. So when I didn't die yesterday, I was a lot more inclined to trust you today.
I also think that if you hadn't stepped in and defended me yesterday there was a high chance I would have been voted out, so thanks for that. XD
The fact that I couldn't exclude anyone from being the informant by investigating them actually meant that I didn't fully trust anyone at all. Even though Jd- was my #1 choice for informant, I didn't actually exclude the possibility that someone else was the informant and was beginning to become more suspicious of shinichi'sapprentice in particular. Yes, my paranoia level definitely increased as the game went on.
I didn't have breva pegged for the informant at all though, so good job on that.
, you were a worthy opponent. *takes hat off*
So, yeah, that's all from me. Thanks to everyone involved for a great game and I look forward to the next round!