ESPIONAGE: Campaign Round - DETECTIVES AND CIVILIANS WIN!

[Stopwatch]

Spies'll probably talk enough to want to get votes. Not talking leaves no chance for any and while they won't want to slip, I'm fairly sure that their death by lynch would be much riskier if they weren't to talk.

There's more pressure if we imply that x or y won't be getting enough votes and so'll die. This phase, what info are we getting? Maybe the mutual voting can give us something later but it could just have us looking deeper and deeper into nothingness. I get the point of this round is to find the most Townie-looking people, but that's easier later on in the game when we have stuff to go off. Why not pick up on "slips" (whether you genuinely believe them or are just feigning) as accusations and see how people respond. Sure, no one wants to die so defensiveness doesn't automatically mean guilt, but it could give us something to go off, you know?

How long until the end of the phase btw?

Should be two hours and 18 minutes left, from the time of writing.

Thanks.

Is there anyone who hasn't spoken yet this phase?

[Kaito Lady]

I'll vote you if you vote me!

You have my vote

I have kittens!

Anybody who votes for me will receive kittens!

Too bad cats are super unfaithful creatures (unlike dogs who are the best friends), so sorry - You won't get a vote from me.

Then I won't vote for you ever

So who else wants kittens?

[dumytru]

Spies'll probably talk enough to want to get votes. Not talking leaves no chance for any and while they won't want to slip, I'm fairly sure that their death by lynch would be much riskier if they weren't to talk.

The Detectives are also in the same situation.
This might get tricky for all of us. It's certainly a new scenario.

[Raiden]

I have kittens!

Anybody who votes for me will receive kittens!

*_*

You'll get my vote. Cats stand together. \o/ :3

*Allocates a vote from my pool to Yuri too*

[Kaito Lady]

I have kittens!

Anybody who votes for me will receive kittens!

*_*

You'll get my vote. Cats stand together. \o/ :3

*Allocates a vote from my pool to Yuri too*

then you have my vote as well

[Togop]

There are some other point to consider in this game.
1) Civilians knowing the detective (or using the lists to determine who to vote for), may result in giving away the detectives easily by giving them more votes. As such, this makes people with the most votes more likely spy targets. Thus, I would also suggest disregarding our lists for now, or at least not taking them into account when deciding votes. And we should keep in mind that if we really want somebody in the game, everyone voting them may be counterproductive.
2) Because of what I just said above, I'm not suggesting we go along with this, but it is a possibility to keep in mind. A random list of nine names has a probability of about 80% to contain a spy. Thus, an individual list doesn't give away much information. On the other hand, cross-referencing two lists may be helpful. Thus, if we wanted to gain intel on who's a detective, we could have someone post their list. It would give the spies very little, but civilians who have their own lists to cross-reference it to may be able to narrow down one of the detectives a lot.

[dumytru]

@Togop
Can you explain how you got that 80% probability?
I tried to do it myself, and I got 70.5%.
(I'm not sure whether I got this right since it's been a while since I did probabilities)


And I agree your points are valid.

[Edogawa4869]

LADIES & GENTLEMEN: DAY 1 BEGINS NOW!

Please be sure to send a total of five votes to guarantee that no penalty will be taken out on you at the end of the phase!

[Togop]

@Togop
Can you explain how you got that 80% probability?
I tried to do it myself, and I got 70.5%.
(I'm not sure whether I got this right since it's been a while since I did probabilities)


And I agree your points are valid.

Given a random list of nine names other than me (assuming I'm a civilian), I want the probability of (at least one detective is on the list). I'll calculate the probability of (no detectives are on the list) and subtract from 1. P(no detectives are on the list) = P(both detectives are not on the list).
There are 18 choose 2 ways to select the two detectives, and 9 choose 2 ways to select them from the people not on the list (because there are 18 people other than me and 9 are not on the list). Thus we get a probability of (9 choose 2)/(18 choose 2) = (9*8)/(18*17) = 0.21. Thus the probability a random list would contain both detectives is 0.79, or about 80%.

[Jecka]

I have kittens!

Anybody who votes for me will receive kittens!

No vote from me then
*Brings out the pups*

I have kittens!

Anybody who votes for me will receive kittens!

Too bad cats are super unfaithful creatures (unlike dogs who are the best friends), so sorry - You won't get a vote from me.

Dogs ftw o/\o

[Fujiwara]

Just to make this perfectly clear, don't think you can bribe me for my 4 remaining vo--

Spoiler: Gives a cup of coffee to Arch-nemesis Fuji~ \o/*

Curse you, arch-nemesis! You found my weakness D:

*regains composure while sipping delicious TARDIS coffee and eating crêpes*

Alright, as I said, I am absolutely not bribable and the fact that I'm giving Raiden one of my votes is purely coincidental, so don't even try to--

I have kittens!

Anybody who votes for me will receive kittens!

Kittens *____*

*coughs* Sold. *coughs*

There are some other point to consider in this game.
1) Civilians knowing the detective (or using the lists to determine who to vote for), may result in giving away the detectives easily by giving them more votes. As such, this makes people with the most votes more likely spy targets. Thus, I would also suggest disregarding our lists for now, or at least not taking them into account when deciding votes. And we should keep in mind that if we really want somebody in the game, everyone voting them may be counterproductive.

Yep. As always, lists containing a detective should be handled with care.

2) Because of what I just said above, I'm not suggesting we go along with this, but it is a possibility to keep in mind. A random list of nine names has a probability of about 80% to contain a spy. Thus, an individual list doesn't give away much information. On the other hand, cross-referencing two lists may be helpful. Thus, if we wanted to gain intel on who's a detective, we could have someone post their list. It would give the spies very little, but civilians who have their own lists to cross-reference it to may be able to narrow down one of the detectives a lot.

Hmm... I see what you mean, though I'm not sure the gains outweigh the risks. I'll think some more about it.

[Iwamoto Yuri]

darn, I can't bribe you with a keyhole anymore XD

[dumytru]

Spoiler:

@Togop
Can you explain how you got that 80% probability?
I tried to do it myself, and I got 70.5%.
(I'm not sure whether I got this right since it's been a while since I did probabilities)


And I agree your points are valid.

Given a random list of nine names other than me (assuming I'm a civilian), I want the probability of (at least one detective is on the list). I'll calculate the probability of (no detectives are on the list) and subtract from 1. P(no detectives are on the list) = P(both detectives are not on the list).
There are 18 choose 2 ways to select the two detectives, and 9 choose 2 ways to select them from the people not on the list (because there are 18 people other than me and 9 are not on the list). Thus we get a probability of (9 choose 2)/(18 choose 2) = (9*8)/(18*17) = 0.21. Thus the probability a random list would contain both detectives is 0.79, or about 80%.

Right~~
I did two big mistakes. First I included the owner in his own list.
Fair enough, but what I did was the probability that at least one spy is on the list.

I'm gonna do those again when I am actually awake.

[darkest absol]

2) Because of what I just said above, I'm not suggesting we go along with this, but it is a possibility to keep in mind. A random list of nine names has a probability of about 80% to contain a spy. Thus, an individual list doesn't give away much information. On the other hand, cross-referencing two lists may be helpful. Thus, if we wanted to gain intel on who's a detective, we could have someone post their list. It would give the spies very little, but civilians who have their own lists to cross-reference it to may be able to narrow down one of the detectives a lot.

Could be helpful, but it would also give the spies an idea of who to kill, considering at least one person on the list is guaranteed detective.

[Stopwatch]

Yeah, they'd just have to go down the list. Let's save that for later if needed, but definitely not yet. Especially because the Spies could use it as an opportunity to get proven by 'revealing' their list and mislead Town in the process. It'd be pretty easy to fake because of their being two Detectives and only one in each list so people may just presume they have a list for the other Detective or worse, that someone is a Detective and direct resources to protecting the wrong people.