Mafia Round 35: Horror at Hogwarts (Starting this Friday/Saturday!)

[Jd-]

Also: I want to thank the town for seeing through my promise to see the lovers arrested instead of killed, tempting as the alternative may have been.

[Schillok]

REAL TALK: END OF GAME EDITION

Just read it yourself. It won't bite you... probably.

---

FINAL POINTS

So that is what happened...
However to an outsider like me it certainly looked suspicious. And coming to think of it... it also required a lot of goodwill from the ones trusting you. After all you are Yumi, who is not that easily trusted and you claimed a fake role (which could have been in the game) and the only ones who could confirm you being town - the lovers - turned both out to be BO. Sure, the other ones you sent the coded message could confirm you as well once the lovers were revealed, but that would give away your role.

Your plan was certainly risky. What helped you a lot is the current "metagame" of the BO being inactive in the beginning (which is not entirely their fault) and people willing to trust you even with little evidence.

NEW RULE SUGGESTIONS

I’m sure people will still have problems with what I’ve said, but now I’ll move onto something with actual consequences for future games. I likely won’t play another forum round for four or five months at the minimum as my schedule is quite packed, but let me make some suggestions. Now, this isn’t coming from someone grieving over a loss and venting afterward. We won the round, intense as it was, and these are the things I noticed. As a warning, everyone knows that I always approach rule balance, foremost, with “how can this be abusedâ€

[xpon]

ah.. yeah.. but beware... if you gave them a good role.. it will lead into a easy aptx (ex: telling satou is not in the game while yamato do detentions)

[Dus]

True. It's quite likely that lovey dovey would have been used up during the night for a town/town pair. The math is wrong anyway: The chances of getting a town/town pair are 54%. And I did not keep my role to myself, because I was afraid of being found out, I did it because a) I could not really invest enough time in this round b) even from a townie perspective, I had no reason to, other than being coerced to do so. You didn't really do anything to prove yourself, the lynching went wrong and even if you had proven you knew who the lovers, then that would still have been a plan the BO could have been used, especially since you did no want to have them killed. Which makes little to no sense.

[KangarooGirl]

Well, I was going to suggest increase the number of possible lovers anyway. I did not like my hands completely tied as to who I could make lovers this round. I knew I didn't want BO-Town lovers and I also knew it was likely that Lynz would be lynched early (sorry Lynz but you are pretty bad at lying and staying hidden) It was the lesser of two evils though I guess it may have been the wrong call.

But for sure, most Town/Town lovers will use it at night whereas BO/Town and BO/BO would know whether their lover would be killed that night or not. Graww and I definitely did use it at night. Except after I had my school book stolen we were more afraid I was going to be APTXed. I think Jd- may have forgotten to take that into account when doing the math.

[IdentityUnknown]

[me=IdentityUnknown]dies after reading Jd-'s entire excessively long post.[/me]

That was a pretty awesome round of Mafia though. Even though it only lasted, like...a week.

[KawanoMino]

I think this was the shortest round of mafia ever.

Good game.

[xpon]

please dont be too harsh with Jd-....it is hard to see the bad side of your plan ... it need time to realize if the plan have hole and how deep the hole is.

[vittor]

Great game guys ^^

[Jd-]

However to an outsider like me it certainly looked suspicious. And coming to think of it... it also required a lot of goodwill from the ones trusting you. After all you are Yumi, who is not that easily trusted and you claimed a fake role (which could have been in the game) and the only ones who could confirm you being town - the lovers - turned both out to be BO. Sure, the other ones you sent the coded message could confirm you as well once the lovers were revealed, but that would give away your role.

Your plan was certainly risky. What helped you a lot is the current "metagame" of the BO being inactive in the beginning (which is not entirely their fault) and people willing to trust you even with little evidence.

We already knew Satou wasn't in the game unless she was being extremely quiet the entire time (as in, not detaining anyone; plus, two detainers in one game is rather... powerful). Beyond that, I never once claimed a fake role--I merely left the possibility on the table in order to protect BK201 and myself. I already knew BK201 was Yamato and I wasn't going to let the Black Org think that I was actually Yumi no matter how this shook out.

I think I can kind of tell here that you didn't read the post when you've said, "Sure, the other ones you sent the coded message could confirm you as well once the lovers were revealed, but that would give away your role" (not that I blame you; it's incredibly long). You see... That was the entire point of the original plan. Giving up your role for the greater good is not a bad strategy so long as you have a plan in place. I've used it many, many times in the past and it's been a success every single time. I lasted four or five phases once after revealing my role in a mini game.

I still don't get why you said that you "increased the chance of lynching a BO" by picking someone from your lovers list. Isn't it exactly the other way around? The BO would still have their lovey-dovey but a town-town pair likely used it during the night. All the advantage that remains is that you can prove yourself by knowing the possible lovers in advance. If that is worth it, is an entirely different question.
On the other hand increasing the number of lovers Yumi has to pick from doesn't seem that much of a change to the game.

I think you followed a different logic from that which I stated. The logic goes like this:

When Yumi makes the list, the lovers WILL be in the game. That gives you three possibilities for the lovers: Borg/Borg, Borg/Town, Town/Town. For a townie (which Yumi is, by any measure), 2 out of those 3 options is a preferable result as far as them dying. Thus, statistically speaking, if you were to successfully lynch the lovers on Day 1 and you consider that--for the most part--Day 1 lynchings are random with usually a 25% chance of success, there is a 66% chance of killing a Black Org member in some form. That is, if the lynch is done successfully on one of the lovers. This does not, by design, take into account the 1 out of 3 chance that a lover will be lynched in the first place (all of which is explained in the original post). Lovey-dovey isn't taken into account when calculating that figure, no matter which sort of lover it is. The reasoning is very simple: If I am lynching the town-town lovers, they aren't going to know about it. If I am lynching any pair of lovers involving the Black Org, my aim is to avoid the Black Org finding out, but also leaving in a failsafe as I did with Eve (which worked magnificently): If you believe someone will leak the name to the Borg, make sure you LIMIT the amount of recipients and explain fully to your town allies (as I did here) to keep it to themselves for the time being. This gives you a chain of custody, so to speak, on the information. That also worked perfectly in this round.

Now, let me note again: The plan here was to kill the lovers. Even if they had been town-town, I would have revealed my role and had an entire phase to unite the town. If someone has the list of lovers from the beginning of Night 1 in encrypted form and they reveal it along with their plan after the lovers are lynched (no matter what sort they may be), they virtually must be Yumi. If you really don't think I could have convinced people in the town on that evidence that I was Yumi, you vastly underestimate me.

But for sure, most Town/Town lovers will use it at night whereas BO/Town and BO/BO would know whether their lover would be killed that night or not. Graww and I definitely did use it at night. Except after I had my school book stolen we were more afraid I was going to be APTXed. I think Jd- may have forgotten to take that into account when doing the math.

No, I didn't forget to take it into account--I just didn't mind that at all. To recap: My plan was to kill the lovers. Town/Town, Borg/Borg, Borg/Town, it didn't matter. If the town/town lovers had used their lovey-dovey at night, that would've only made it easier. I didn't want the Borg/Borg or Borg/Town lovers to know about the lynch--that's why I never posted it publicly but did take into account the idea that it may be leaked. That was strike one against Eve later on, and that's why she was the only one I was unsure of that found out early. Everyone else found out just minutes before phase change.

Now, more specifically about lovey-dovey: It really doesn't affect this plan at all. Why? Because it virtually ensures the lovers have been located if that lynch fails and the votes are still shown. Protection is an option, but if no one claims it, you know it's the lovers (as we did here). As you whittle down your list of four, you can easily find out the people that it can't be, if any. That's why I would--no question--repeat this strategy over again and I guarantee we would've won the game again all the same as a result.

It's quite likely that lovey dovey would have been used up during the night for a town/town pair. The math is wrong anyway: The chances of getting a town/town pair are 54%. And I did not keep my role to myself, because I was afraid of being found out, I did it because a) I could not really invest enough time in this round b) even from a townie perspective, I had no reason to, other than being coerced to do so. You didn't really do anything to prove yourself, the lynching went wrong and even if you had proven you knew who the lovers, then that would still have been a plan the BO could have been used, especially since you did no want to have them killed. Which makes little to no sense.

I'm going to respond to your post in a slightly different manner, as we weren't really interested in you telling us your role; we were just finding reasons as to why you wouldn't say it in the ideal situation. We arrived at the correct conclusion fairly easily, even if the reasoning did not align. (In short: By process of elimination, we were fairly certain you were Vermouth in disguise as Shinichi or Heiji. That basically answers your entire post as it is.) It may not have been pretty, but we'll take it.

But, for a moment, let's pretend that we were trying to get your role. We'll back up a little bit and recap a few things first.

The lynch did not go so simply "wrong", as I explained in the post (again, this isn't in response to your post as it's framed currently, but more to recap how the town proceeded in the game). There were two facts to take away from the lynching being stopped:

1) Eve was likely Black Org.

2) I was right that Lynz was one of the lovers, as well as almost definitely being Black Org.

If the lovers had been lynched--no matter which sort they were--and I posted that code along with what it decrypted to, I would have been proven as Yumi. If you didn't think that were the case, you would've been kidding yourself. You could have said that it was a "plan the BO could have [used]", but we both know that's just grasping at straws. If the Black Org had Yumi's list at the very beginning of Night 1 and had a member purport to be her later after having sent the code out to three independent users to verify her identity in public when the time came, the Borg would have lost a member right then and there. It's simply not realistic and it's hardly even a remote possibility, really.

Now, moving on to me "proving myself". I actually did prove myself, but we kept the details of that short. You're talking about when I posted about the roles after D2. This is when I lynched Eve as Pisco, which is a very valuable role in a game like this. In fact, due to the killing actions reducing the number of Black Org, sacrificing a member is more or less not an option when you've only killed three townies to that point with one of your members about to be arrested, so that more or less confirmed I had the town's interests in mind. It's all right to be skeptical, but you also have to notice that the town would've been done for if I were Borg. I already knew 12 of their roles at that point.

I'm not entirely sure if you actually read the post or not, to be honest, but if you had, I believe you may have misread it to some extent. To note: I did want the lovers to be killed. I didn't want them to live. However, my foremost concern was confirming their identities. That was done very easily. I'm not sure if that was a typo in your original post or not.

The chances of getting a town/town pair of lovers is not 54% if you follow the original parameters that I set out. I said, quite specifically: If the lynch is successful and it is successful on the lovers, there is a 66% chance of at least one Borg dying in there. I intentionally worded it this way and if you go back and re-read it, you'll see that's the case.

A little bonus factoid: All of the scenarios were readily accounted for (including lovey-dovey) and that's why I wasn't lost whatsoever when Lynz didn't die from that lynching. Did you notice that Hope had the phase change posted at 3:01 AM and then my post mentioning Lynz as a lover to the Black Org was made at 3:12 AM? This is because (as Tears can attest) I had actually written two posts the night before: One mentioning that Lynz was a lover, and the other revealing my role as Yumi along with the answer to the code. I was ready for both possibilities.

please dont be too harsh with Jd-....it is hard to see the bad side of your plan ... it need time to realize if the plan have hole and how deep the hole is.

No, it's fine. I stand by the plan and would use it again if the role permitted. The plan is a multifaceted one that worked--you can't really ask for more than that. The game was won with relatively few problems or errors, so it wasn't so bad in the end.

[Dus]

What I meant was: As the lovers DIDN'T get lynched, knowing they were lovers did not prove you were Yumi as all the BO knew they were lovers and knew that they wouldn't die from being lynched.  and since you prevented them from dying, it never really got confirmed that they actually were lovers.
Your math makes the tremendous mistake that it assumes an even number of BO and town. The probability of the lovers being both town is actually (17/23)²=54,63%. My whole problem is, that I don't understand why so many people seem to hab trusted you before Eve got lynched. As lynz got to live, this did not really confirm anything, and having a BO lover arrested instead of lynched makes no sense for a townie, even if you know another BO to lynch already. Had I been town, I probably would have been more wary, not more cooperative. Round 14 was similarly one-sided in the town's favour and there it was easy to see how the huge alliance formed. I (Haibara) got confirmed as a child by the lovers during N1, and stumbled upon the three DBs on D1. The rest was a cakewalk. In this case I don't see it. If anything, it puzzles me more after reading your post.

[Conia]

Killing actions isn't exactly the problem, the mentality of players is... killing actions just encourage BO players to sit back and only send actions, staying on the sidelines like Jd- said (And I'm not referencing to this Round). Well, as Stoppy said, it is the decision of the players how to approach the game, but then you can't expect to be believed when you're trying to blend in into a proved and trusty town alliance, while you are being suspected too.

Wills/Codes/whatever: It is impossible to put a limit to it, players will always find a new way to get passed them, so we can only rely on players to keep a healthy mindset while playing and not breaking the rules.
As to my encrypting, it was much less thought than Jd-'s method, but the basis is the same: Leaving an early message to some players who would later, upon some event happening, be able to read it. Well, it has only worked once for me, of the 2 times I've tried it (Yup, I failed at doing it once ) and if this method is shunned by players, I'll gladly comply.

[Giogio]

Wow, that game was really fast. And I'm still drunk (o:
But still lots of fun.
I wasnt able to post in the thread lately - dunno why, just tried it twice...

@Dus: Thanks for clearing that up, my math did hurt. The lover thing does not influence the probablilities *at all*.
With Sonoko its a little bit different - you choose 5 players, get one non-BO as BFF, thus the probability for the other 4 to be BO is raised by 5/4. If the GM doesn't choose the not-prep roles after that, of course. I dont think this one is a big problem.

[lyndsi]

Oi!

I am not horrible at staying hidden, I do it all the time....it's why I never talk to people, horrible liar yes, but I can stay hidden better than the next person....I've done it every round BUT this one (and my first one, but I digress) because I was stupid. It was still fun though.

[Kaito Lady]

YAY!
Town Won!

And why dont i die everty round i write a will?! it's unfair!