Espionage - Round 5 (Spy and Informants Win)

[Stopwatch]

Confirming role. I'll post something later (like, in ten hours time or so ^^;)

[RoboG55]

Got my role. I'm excited for this game, since this hasn't been played in so long

[Iwamoto Yuri]

yes! i'm gonna use detective Stopwatch of Round 4's exact words... "Investigate has been heavily depowered". though the detective is free to post his results, he'll just be committing suicide if he does it alone. that's why i'm taking the initiative to post fake investigates. whether i end up doing it alone or just me and the detective, well, i hope i made some cover for the detective.

so yeah, at the end of each phase, i'll be posting a list of three people with one of 'em labeled as not spy.

again, you all are free to do the same or not,.. of course posting will be better for the detective \o/ and i really hope at least the detective will go with this because what's the point if we don't get to see the real investigate

and also, let's set this aside for now since as i said, this should be considered as a side strategy since the plan itself starts when the detective receives his results.

well,.. it's just prep phase... i guess i'm just too excited xD

This is very stupid to do.
While it gives a cover up for the detective civilians will not know what the real results are.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

12hours to Day 1

heh... usually people begin hype procedures by now xD it's the other side of the world's turn now to check out their roles only three people remaining, yet to post...

i'm posting this half a day to next phase so hopefully people from whatever timezones they are from will be able to read this. this is the idea i came up with... it may sound a little... absurd... but, here goes... how about we ditch Day 1 and do not post anything at all so we can delay the informants trying to reply to their spy's orders. this will mean that we all have to decide on our own on who to vote for Day 1. no discussions. no alliance. no anything. i can't pinpoint the pros and cons of this strategy but eh... what you guys think? <<--edited it to small fonts since i'm not quite proud of this after rethinking for hours, aside from delaying the spy and informants' contact, i can't think myself of what else it can do any better ideas guys?

and hey, about the fake investigate, i'm still determined in doing it. you have no idea how useful that strategy can be. i'm not gonna spell out everything right here right now but take a good look at this. seems like we pretty much are thinking the same thing. again, i'm repeating this:
1. fake investigate should be considered as a side strategy and not the main plan to get the spy! (that's why i'm trying to come up with another idea which sadly, that up there ↑ is all i came up with so far -_-)
2. maybe i should re-emphasize that... I STRONGLY RECOMMEND THE DETECTIVE TO POST HIS RESULTS AS WELL! this strategy is nonsense if we don't get to see the real investigate after all. and of course, more people posting is really going to be helpful!

see you guys in half a day... zZzZz

[dumytru]

---

Fake Investigation:

---

Pros:
This strategy is a great advantage to the civilian/detective side once the Detective is dead.
The informants/spy can't "mess" with it.
Once the Detective identity is known (they died) we know the result of the Real Investigation.

---

Cons:
As Fujiwara pointed out, there's a high risk.
The Spy will get information evey time a player says: "[spy-name] is not the spy".

If the Detective doesn't do it, then we're done. Also if there aren't many who do it, the Detective's a sure kill.
So if we end up doing it: Detective! Be careful! If not many people don't submit fake investigations, then you're in great danger.

---

Conclusion:
The Spy might narrow down their "Detective suspects" during the game, but once the Detective's dead, we're sure to narrow down our suspect list. If the Detective's actually going to die, we're gonna need that information.

---

My Opinion:

I'm not that sure we should do it. If we all do it, then it should be alright. We need all to be active.

Edit:

This is kind of tricky. The more of us agree with this stragety, the higher the chance this ( "[spy-name] is not the spy" ) will show up.
The fewer we are and if the Detective is in as well, then the Spy will narrow his list considerably.

We might be better not doing it, after all.

Also, there are other ways the Detective can tell us the results, but that depends on their creativity.
[Example: In Round one, Kleene said " *randomly hugs dumytru* " because she investigated me and I turned out to be a civilian]

---

About SA's idea of not posting. It might actually prove to be a great idea. We have to think this through though.

[miyano_shiho]

Got my role.

(I love how my sucky timezone's mentioned in the first post. :x)

[PhantomWriter]

---

Fake Investigation:

---

Pros:
This strategy is a great advantage to the civilian/detective side once the Detective is dead.
The informants/spy can't "mess" with it.
Once the Detective identity is known (they died) we know the result of the Real Investigation.

---

Cons:
As Fujiwara pointed out, there's a high risk.
The Spy will get information evey time a player says: "[spy-name] is not the spy".

If the Detective doesn't do it, then we're done. Also if there aren't many who do it, the Detective's a sure kill.
So if we end up doing it: Detective! Be careful! If not many people don't submit fake investigations, then you're in great danger.

---

Conclusion:
The Spy might narrow down their "Detective suspects" during the game, but once the Detective's dead, we're sure to narrow down our suspect list. If the Detective's actually going to die, we're gonna need that information.

---

My Opinion:

I'm not that sure we should do it. If we all do it, then it should be alright. We need all to be active.

Edit:

This is kind of tricky. The more of us agree with this stragety, the higher the chance this ( "[spy-name] is not the spy" ) will show up.
The fewer we are and if the Detective is in as well, then the Spy will narrow his list considerably.

We might be better not doing it, after all.

Also, there are other ways the Detective can tell us the results, but that depends on their creativity.
[Example: In Round one, Kleene said " *randomly hugs dumytru* " because she investigated me and I turned out to be a civilian]

---

About SA's idea of not posting. It might actually prove to be a great idea. We have to think this through though.

That's actually a pretty succinct summary of the idea. Thing is, it's a bit of a tightrope act: too few participate and the detective posting investigation results will be narrowed down and at some point targeted by the spy, though that's assuming the detective posts instead of holding back and observing. Too many participate and people will end up saying the spy is not the spy, which reveals they're not the detective. There's two issues with fake investigates that I can see: multiple people claiming the spy is not the spy at the same time due to lack of PM kind of communication and the fake investigates will only work for so long before people start repeating who they think the spy isn't, increasing the likelihood more people will make it clear they're not the detective. Unless the detective decides to lie at some point, but that means the civilians will end up trusting the spy when they shouldn't.

And, if one doesn't post a fake investigate if everyone's doing it, people will get suspicious of the person, even if they're busy. For example, I have finals this week, so I'm going to disappearing at random times. Finishing up a final draft of a research proposal was also why I'm a bit less active in the manga spoiler threads for a bit. But there will be people who outright lie to save their hide: That's kind of the whole point of this game.

[Kleene Onigiri]

Huh? I have to post something once I get my role? D:
I'm the spy \o/ Yay!

I forgot that the investigate was weakened :V Let's see how this works :V


I actually like SA idea of fake investigating. There is the risk of outing yourself as not the detective. But you can counter that a bit with that strategy:
If you're civilian and are doing the fake investigate strategy, then you simply have to try to name someone that wasn't named before. That way, there won't be multiple people saying the spy is not the spy. This results in less civilians outing themselves as civilians

Also, there is actually another benefit to it. If someone is a civilian and accidentally says that the spy is not the spy in the thread, then that person will likely not be attacked by the spy. Because the spy would know it's not the detective and most likely not attack that person anymore, but try for someone else to get the detective down.
This also means, that a civilian that said that person A is not the spy and that civilian gets killed, that this person A is really unlikely to be the spy.

[Stopwatch]

Huh? I have to post something once I get my role? D:
I'm the spy \o/ Yay!

I forgot that the investigate was weakened :V Let's see how this works :V


I actually like SA idea of fake investigating. There is the risk of outing yourself as not the detective. But you can counter that a bit with that strategy:
If you're civilian and are doing the fake investigate strategy, then you simply have to try to name someone that wasn't named before. That way, there won't be multiple people saying the spy is not the spy. This results in less civilians outing themselves as civilians

Also, there is actually another benefit to it. If someone is a civilian and accidentally says that the spy is not the spy in the thread, then that person will likely not be attacked by the spy. Because the spy would know it's not the detective and most likely not attack that person anymore, but try for someone else to get the detective down.
This also means, that a civilian that said that person A is not the spy and that civilian gets killed, that this person A is really unlikely to be the spy.

The thing is, if a non-Detective takes the Detective's non-Spy result then the Detective can't then claim their actual investigation result meaning what they do claim can easily be misleading.

[MoonRaven]

So... tomorrow is the first real day then, eh? Civilains get their lists, spy gets to kill, the town votes etc... BTW I like the idea of no one talking on the first day.

[Fujiwara]

Also, there is actually another benefit to it. If someone is a civilian and accidentally says that the spy is not the spy in the thread, then that person will likely not be attacked by the spy. Because the spy would know it's not the detective and most likely not attack that person anymore, but try for someone else to get the detective down.

Er, that's not a benefit, it's the drawback we were talking about. Narrowing down detective suspects for the spy is not a good thing.

This also means, that a civilian that said that person A is not the spy and that civilian gets killed, that this person A is really unlikely to be the spy.

I see what you're trying to say, but there's nothing stopping the spy from using that logic to make himself appear innocent.

The thing is, if a non-Detective takes the Detective's non-Spy result then the Detective can't then claim their actual investigation result meaning what they do claim can easily be misleading.

My thoughts exactly.

About the idea of not saying anything on Day 1:
Er, I really don't think this is a very good idea. The only advantage of this strategy is delaying the identification of the informants on Day 1, meaning the spy might kill one of his informants or might decide not to kill anyone. In return, our only means of communication will be completely cut off as well. Doesn't really seem worth it to me. Not to mention it's rather unlikely to actually work. If enough people are in favor of it by phase change I'll go along though.

[Kleene Onigiri]

Of course it's all a theory, like everything you guys say here. There is always a counter.
But in general, it still works. Since you aren't supposed always choose someone else as "not spy". But if you do it in general. Like 5 people shouldn't all say that Fujiwara is not the spy, and then Fuji happens to be the spy.

Also to Fuji. It'a theory and the spy can always counter it. But that way he's in a disadvantage, because then he won't kill the detective for sure, which is good for the town. And he can't do that all the time, otherwise he'll never kill the detective. So, in general, like I said, it's likely that that person won't die. And thus, that person that isn't dying could have choosen the spy, or the other way round, the civilian that died likely choose a non-spy for his fake investigate.
So everyone that dies by the civilian and used the fake investigate strategy is giving the civilians likely a lead to work with.

[dumytru]

Of course it's all a theory, like everything you guys say here. There is always a counter.
But in general, it still works. Since you aren't supposed always choose someone else as "not spy". But if you do it in general. Like 5 people shouldn't all say that Fujiwara is not the spy, and then Fuji happens to be the spy.

Also to Fuji. It'a theory and the spy can always counter it. But that way he's in a disadvantage, because then he won't kill the detective for sure, which is good for the town. And he can't do that all the time, otherwise he'll never kill the detective. So, in general, like I said, it's likely that that person won't die. And thus, that person that isn't dying could have choosen the spy, or the other way round, the civilian that died likely choose a non-spy for his fake investigate.
So everyone that dies by the civilian and used the fake investigate strategy is giving the civilians likely a lead to work with.

You do have a point, and besides, it's not like we have to do it every Day.

[MoonRaven]

I shall go to sleep now. Tomorrow is the great day. See ya all then!

[bash7353]

Prep Phase ends!

Lists have been sent out. If you're a Civilian and haven't received yours, send me a private message and we'll clear it up.

It is now Day 1!

Time until Day 2