breva wrote:Can't quote right now, but Kleene, Miaka said that some posts ago
I searched through Miakas posts. I think you mean that:
miakakiri wrote:Togop wrote:OK. everyone, now that the detective is out, we need all possible deductions laid down on the table, as there's no further need to protect the detective. Thus, list all your theories so far.
1) Some people said they though they knew who the detective was. Who did you suspect of being the detective, and why?
2) Other than Jd-'s list, clearly more aiming to get together an alliance than to actually list people who we have serious reasons to believe are civillians, we don't know anyone's opinions on who's not the spy. So, everyone, say who do you really believe is not the spy.
3) Of course, everyone, bring fourth your suspect lists. While we should definitely focus on finding the spy, figuring out who the informant is could be a very strong lead. I'll post my thought ont hat later after I sort them out.
4) If you have any compelling evidence that you're a civillian, do come fourth.
5) Finally, I want everyone, or at least every team, to reply to the above points. That's to make sure the spy replies, too.
6) On a different note, there was something I set up during prep phase. "ac5e0e3", which I jokingly suggested as a team name, is the ending of a certain md5 hash. Can you guess what text is that md5 hash of?
I also have one more point, but it's going to wait until a little bit.
1) I had no ideas who the detective might be. This is my first time playing and I don't know what I'm doing. Kleene-san didn't mention any ideas about who the Detective might be either.
2) See above, re I have no idea what I'm doing.
3) Erm.... I/we don't actually have a "suspect list". We've been voting random, often by using Archi as our randomizer--I ask him to pick a number between 1 and 10 (as I can't see a reason to vote for ourselves) and that becomes our vote. (I don't think I'm allowed to talk about what might or might not be on the list we got from Yuri-san.)
4) I am not sure what would make 'compelling evidence'. This is the first time I've played and I'm not even entirely clear on the rules because I forgot to read them before the game started and I've had a busy week. Yesterday I spent the whole day at the Museum of Science in Boston with my brothers. Left on the 7am bus to Boston and returned home after 10pm.
5) Not sure how helpful my responses will be, but here you are.
6) No clues.
Please note, I am truly not all that clear on what I am allowed to talk about here, especially regarding the list. You can chalk it all up to the usual level of Miaka-confusion if you want. Toss in the fact that the game started basically right after I got back from a mini-vacation and I've had a busy week since.... someone give me a pointer or two in what I'm allowed to say, or ask Kleene.
Miaka was answering on the suspect list. We did ask archy to pick a number. But Miaka didn't want to reveal our list, that's why she said 1-10. You can conlcude that from her sentence in the brackets, where she says she may not talk about our list too open and that's why she wanted to be on the save side.
We didn't have a "suspect list" at that time. Everyone on our list was equally suspicious and considering we didn't know whether we have the spy or detective or Spy/detective on our list. So everyone not on our list were also still suspicious (till the detective died :x)
I can tell you that we wouldn't have mistakenly taken down the detective tho. We would and will find the spy! \o/
But your reasoning that we are suspicious because is strange. I'm not certain that your team 7 Kamite and breva is not the spy. You could be the spy and try to help your informant (which could be Jd) to make my team suspicious.
Very important! Please read definitely from here ---
Jd- wrote:Kleene Onigiri wrote:Also, why are you guy even still listening to Jd-? He said he voted for kamite/Jellito based on his list. THAT means he most likely doesn't have the spy on his list.
Apparently, my opinions/deductions/theories are completely worthless due to my list exhausting its usefulness. How do we know your list wasn't the same? How do we know you
have a list? This is where you've inadvertently made a mistake, as far as I'm concerned. You've shown here that you evidently
know that KL & I have a list, yet still tell everyone that our deductions should be disregarded. Which is it? Are we civilians with a list whose usefulness has been exhausted or are we not? You can't have it both ways. The Spies and Informants know who do and do not have lists, so if you do turn out to be one or the other, you've accidentally shown your hand here.
That doesn't make sense.
I said that you said yourself that you had Kamite/Jellito on your list. You even say that again after this post. You even say it's obvious that you voted Kamite/Jellitto based on your list.
And like I said, I don't think you're the spy. You might be the informant or you're a civilian that likes to make sure to suspect people even tho you don't have a list that has the spy on it for certain.
Wait, let me make it clear so you can't say anything confusing again.
Let's assume the 2 possibilities, that you're either the informant or the civilian:
1) Informant:
You're the informant. You know for sure who the spy is and you also know who has a list. If you researched the thread, you might even conclude who had Kamite/Jellitto on their list based on their reaction whether they wanted to vote Kamite/Jellitto immediately or not.
My team didn't vote them and I also said in the thread before phasechange that we still vote team 7. That's why you can assume that my team probably doesn't have Kamite/Jellitto on their list. And that's also the reason why you wanted to make my team suspicious. Fearing that we might have a list with the spy on it.
Also let's compare the people that tried to defend Kain/Jellito and the ones that voted with Jd- for Kain/Jellitto with Jd's spy list:
Jd suspected those teams to be spies:
[*]RoboG55 & Meme: were also on the list from stoppy/Hime and didn't vote Kain/Jellitto
[*]Jecka & miyano_shiho: they suspected Jd- to be the spy, they voted Jd/KL
[*]Kleene Onigiri & Miaka: we didn't vote Kain/Jellitto, we suspect Jd, Jd said: "I'm a little inclined to suspect Kleene on account of her being a little more forceful than usual throughout this round." - although I'm as forceful as always.
Those 3 teams didn't vote for Kain/Jellitto.
Jd thinks those are most likely civilians:
[*]shinichi'sapprentice & googleearth: voted with Jd- for Kain/Jellitto
[*]Conan-chandesune & Togop: also voted Kain/Jellitto
[*]Cider & dumytru: Jd said: "almost completely and definitely civilians" but they are on stoppy/Hime list, voted Kain and Jellitto too.
[*]Kamite & Breva: wanted to help Kain/Jellitto, didn't vote them.
Who was actually voted by who:
Actual votes:
Team 4, Jd- & Kaito Lady: Jecka & miyano_shiho
Team 6, Togop and Conan-chandesune:Hime-chan & Stopwatch
Team 7, Kamite & breva: KainTheVampire & Jellito, KleeneOnigiri and Miaka
Team 8, Jecka & miyano_shiho: Kamite & breva, RoboG55 & Meme
Team 9, KainTheVampire & Jellito: shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth, Jd- & Kaito Lady, Togop & Conan-chandesune, Cider & dumytru
3 out of those 4 have voted together with Jd- for Kamite and Jellitto. Meaning that they likely have Kamite/Jellitto on their lists. So saying they are civilians is helpful for Jd if he's a informant.
The only one that doesn't "fit" into that are breva/Kamite, since they wanted to help the detective team. But then again, they didn't want the detectives to vote team 7, which are them.
The most suspicious part here is also, that Jd- said that Cider/dumytrure "almost completely and definitely civilians" alhough they appeared on stoppy/Hime list.
Stoppy and hime also found Jd suspicious and wanted to save Kain/Jellitto. They ended up being killed by the spy. Coincidence?
With that, my main suspects are team
10: Cider and dumytru and
team 7: Kamite and breva.
Those two are also on Stoppy/Hime list:
List from stoppy/Hime:
1. illegible
2. Team 7: Kamite and breva
3. illegible
4. Team 5: RoboG55 and Meme
5. Team 10: Cider and dumytru
but that's not the only reason I suspect those 2 teams. (actually I just noticed now that they are on stoppy/hime list :x)
But there was still the case that Jd- could be civilian:
2) Jd is a civilian:
Jd claimed that he voted Kain/Jellitto because they were on the list. Since we assume he is civilian we believe him for this case.
This would mean that it's uncertain if his list also has the spy on it. So he can't say for sure that his list is useful.
But he still posted his suspect list early on and some people used it as a reference. Why? That doesn't make sense.
As a civilian, he should have waited for people that don't have the detective on their list to say something and nominate something.
And even if he wanted to make a suspect list based on his intuition, which is perfectly valid, he should mention that that list is not 100% sure.
But instead he said that dumytru/Cider team is "almost completely and definitely civilians" (besides that the word almost and completely and definitely are contradicting themselves :x)
If he has the detective on his list, he has no evidence to claim something so sure.
So, yes. His suspect list shouldn't be disregarded. But the opinion of the ones that didn't vote for Kain/jellitto, which makes it likely that these don't have the detective on their list, should weight more importnace. Those teams would be: Kamite and breva (although i suspect them as spies), Jecka & miyano_shiho and Kleene Onigiri & Miaka (Hime and Stoppy, tho they died, but their list was revealed, which most likely also didn't ahve Kain/Jellitto on it; and Robo/Meme who were arrested ^^")
But based on Jd- behaviour, it's more likely that he's the informant than a civilian. Because if he's a civilian, some of his post doesn't make sense.
till here --- (better read everything :x)
Kleene Onigiri wrote:Also, Jd- claims that the reason that there wasn't a kill (again) this time was, because I was inactive (true for this phase, and half for the phase before [which I announced]) and that Miaka seems not to be able to PM a kill order although she clearly could send in a vote via PM to the GM? Really now?
Firstly, I didn't say that definitively. Using that to discredit me is silliness. It's a fact that Miaka has no idea how to play the game; she said so on three different occasions so far. My working theory was that you didn't intend to miss the entire phase, because Miaka seemed quite befuddled with being saddled with deciding the team's actions for herself when you were MIA. She didn't seem to have any idea what she was doing, as if she were doing it for the first time. That makes it entirely--entirely--plausible that she didn't kill because 1) she hadn't done it before and 2) she didn't want to make a mistake that you wouldn't have.
You don't make sense and are rude to Miaka. Even if she claims herself that she doesn't understand the rules, she does know the fundamentals. There are detective and a spy and the spy kills people while the detective tries to find the spy. You don't even need to read the rules to understand that simple principle.
And even if she didn't know what to do, aka which one to kill in case we are the spies, she would know that killing someone randomly is better than not killing normally. Since Day 2 and day 3 there was a kill, she would assume that killing day 4 should be alright too. Miaka also played Mafia, where killing of townies is importnat.
And I told her the phase where I announced my absence, that she can always just PM whatever she thinks is fine. Or just go random if she has no clues who's the spy (or detective in the case that you suspect us being the spy).
Since we can always change our votes or actions in this game, it doesn't matter if we do a random vote and then change it again.
So what you say doesn't really make much sense. You theory that we're the spy team because there wasn't a kill and that's because Miaka didn't know what to do is false. She did send in the vote herself, so she would also just randomly kill someone. Especially since she wouldn't know what to do she would definitely kill someone! I would actually not kill someone, because, like I said, it would give the civilians one team less to worry about. So that actually speaks in favor for Miaka, because if Miaka were the spy and I was absent, she would do a kill.
Kleene Onigiri wrote:OK, Miaka says she didn't read the rules. But since she's teamed up with me, I would explain to her how the spy works in case we would have been the spy... she already asked me some questions on the first day. There I explained the lists and also that you may not reveal your list too obviously either etc.
If you were so eager to explain everything to her, why didn't you explain the rest of the basics of the game to her? She seems to not know very much about the game thus far. You pretending that there's absolutely nothing to question in the events and Miaka's posts as part of your absence is really stretching credibility, to me.
I actually thought she did read the rules... :x
She had some questions and I answered them. So I just explained the most important stuff, like how the lists work (either spy or detective or spy and detective on the list) or that she shouldn't reveal our list too openly. And if we were the spy team, I would explain to her that the spy kills every phase (since in Mafia it's just every night and not on days).
Kleene Onigiri wrote:But you can clearly see that Jd- tries to blame someone else, with the evidence used for being "inactive". Although my team voted on Day 1 and also this day (Miakas PM), we seem to have forgotten how to kill? Would we really do that? No, we wouldn't forget to vote a second time!
You were here on the first day and could have done anything you wanted; you were
not here and Miaka couldn't do anything she wanted because she didn't know what was best for her team. That makes the results from the two days incongruous.
That doesn't make sense. And like said, if Miaka was alone on deciding, she would definitely do the kill too. She would have seen me sending in orders for kills.
But you make it sound as if I'm some kind of dictator. When I'm in a team, I always ask my teammates for opinions and what they want to do. Or I tell them my strategy and ask for their opinion or if they wanna do something else.
The only time I didn't ask Miaka in advance was day 1, since that was a last minute vote because I forgot the time D: Since Mafia was still running and had Phasechange at 10 Am for me and Espionage has 10 PM phasechange, I confused them ^^"
Kleene Onigiri wrote:But did the spy really forget to vote this day? On day 5 where the detective is already out of the game? No! The spy purposefully didn't kill today, since he didn't have to kill the detective anymore! Instead, he would have killed a civilian for sure. And THAT would give the civilians one team less to worry about whether they are the spy. Which is really clever. AND someone as clever as Jd- would have seen this miles away! But he uses the "no killing this day" as evidence to blame teams, especially my team.
If you are telling me that it is impossible for Miaka to not know what she's doing and thus send in a vote at the last minute without a kill due to not knowing
whether it was good or bad to do so, you're obviously joking at this point.
More importantly, I think you're wrong about your conclusion about the lack of a kill, if it were deliberate. I don't think they're worried about having one less civilian team in that scenario but instead having
one more list in the open. Most likely, they've seen that the focus from the revealed lists has gone a certain way and they may be on only one or none of them, so risking having themselves placed under new suspicion when otherwise they could coast by is a far more likely scenario.
No, that wasn't meant to mean what Miaka or me would do.
That was meant what the real spy team would have done, and the spy team is cautious and smart it seems, to think about that.
And no, they certainly would consider this. And not killing after the detective died is better than killing a civilian team and reducing the numbers of people. Also, killing a civilian gives the risk of a list being revealed where the spy is on it. And if there was already a list revealed where the spy is named on, it's even worse.
So not killing is definitely better than killing again hoping your name won't appear (again) on that list.
