ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

[miakakiri]

*sigh* I really have no idea how to play.
I do have a list that does not include team 9. I do not know how to present conclusive evidence that we're civvies. I also do not know why my partner hasn't been active this past phase.
I think I really need to find the time to read through the rules.... ~_~* Except I'm also quite interested in at LEAST getting past the Fire Seal and off to the Ossa Trail so I can see my favorite character, even though she won't join the party for quite a while yet.

[Kleene Onigiri]

I was away till ~23:00 o'clock my time (so ca. 1-2 hours from now) and I was reading the topic till just now. Since I was working the whole day (was helping at a conference).
I was also in another city and we departed later than I have expected (phasechange is 22:00 and we got on the train at 21:15 D: )

Miaka's response along the lines "I can't play" doesn't mean much, though, as falling for that trap requires some knowledge of the game. Kleene, on the other hand, logged in shortly after my post and clearly ignored it. This makes Kleene/Miaka a prime informant suspect. If so, Kamite/Breva and Robo/Meme are innocent due to points 12) and 18) from my earlier post. In this case my prime spy suspects would be dumytru/Cider followed by Miyano/Jecka.

Yeah, well, thanks for having a live :x
I tried to check the thread during work, but since I was serving customers, I couldn't read the thread completely and just didn't read it all so I didn't see your post, togop.

I can say breva and Kamite are certainly not the spies, I don't know really what to say in our defense... If we were the spies it would have been plain stupid to try to help save Kain and Jellitto since I started to suspect they were the detectives. I would like to know why those teams can't be the spies, specially Miaka and Kleene sice them voting random from a list of 10 instead of using the actual list doesn't make that many sense.
We only have 2 phases to catch the spies, we can't waste them lynching civilians

What? Where is that coming from? Especially since you seem to know more about the list Miaka and me have than we do D:


Also, why are you guy even still listening to Jd-? He said he voted for kamite/Jellito based on his list. THAT means he most likely doesn't have the spy on his list.
So, in case Jd- is actually civilian, tho could be the informant instead, he would speculate on "evidence" aka behaviour of other people. Especially blaming me on my inactivity... and we know how good that worked on a certain day, right? :x
Also, Jd- claims that the reason that there wasn't a kill (again) this time was, because I was inactive (true for this phase, and half for the phase before [which I announced]) and that Miaka seems not to be able to PM a kill order although she clearly could send in a vote via PM to the GM? Really now?
OK, Miaka says she didn't read the rules. But since she's teamed up with me, I would explain to her how the spy works in case we would have been the spy... she already asked me some questions on the first day. There I explained the lists and also that you may not reveal your list too obviously either etc.
I wouldn't vote Jd- tho, I doubt he and his team are the spies.

But you can clearly see that Jd- tries to blame someone else, with the evidence used for being "inactive". Although my team voted on Day 1 and also this day (Miakas PM), we seem to have forgotten how to kill? Would we really do that? No, we wouldn't forget to vote a second time!
But did the spy really forget to vote this day? On day 5 where the detective is already out of the game? No! The spy purposefully didn't kill today, since he didn't have to kill the detective anymore! Instead, he would have killed a civilian for sure. And THAT would give the civilians one team less to worry about whether they are the spy. Which is really clever.
AND someone as clever as Jd- would have seen this miles away! But he uses the "no killing this day" as evidence to blame teams, especially my team.


Anyway. The spy team is clever, they know they don't ahve to kill this phase.
So I think it's maybe team 3: shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth. They were also said to be civilians by Jd- if I remember correctly

Edit: since team 3 is supposed to be clean, I nominate team 10 Cider and dumytru instead.
Anyone have something to say in their defense?

[bash7353]

Am I the only one who thinks it's funny that I went We should take a look at Kleene's team... Oh, wait, no, we shouldn't, actually. and Kleene shortly after went We should take a look at bash's team... Oh, wait, no we shouldn't, actually.?

[Kleene Onigiri]

XD

I was RMed by your message. Then I remembered that there was someone saying not to vote certain teams.
Then I noticed I nominated one of those teams :V (which happened to be yours XD)

[breva]

Can't quote right now, but Kleene, Miaka said that some posts ago

[Jd-]

Also, why are you guy even still listening to Jd-? He said he voted for kamite/Jellito based on his list. THAT means he most likely doesn't have the spy on his list.

Apparently, my opinions/deductions/theories are completely worthless due to my list exhausting its usefulness. How do we know your list wasn't the same? How do we know you have a list? This is where you've inadvertently made a mistake, as far as I'm concerned. You've shown here that you evidently know that KL & I have a list, yet still tell everyone that our deductions should be disregarded. Which is it? Are we civilians with a list whose usefulness has been exhausted or are we not? You can't have it both ways. The Spies and Informants know who do and do not have lists, so if you do turn out to be one or the other, you've accidentally shown your hand here.

Also, Jd- claims that the reason that there wasn't a kill (again) this time was, because I was inactive (true for this phase, and half for the phase before [which I announced]) and that Miaka seems not to be able to PM a kill order although she clearly could send in a vote via PM to the GM? Really now?

Firstly, I didn't say that definitively. Using that to discredit me is silliness. It's a fact that Miaka has no idea how to play the game; she said so on three different occasions so far. My working theory was that you didn't intend to miss the entire phase, because Miaka seemed quite befuddled with being saddled with deciding the team's actions for herself when you were MIA. She didn't seem to have any idea what she was doing, as if she were doing it for the first time. That makes it entirely--entirely--plausible that she didn't kill because 1) she hadn't done it before and 2) she didn't want to make a mistake that you wouldn't have.

OK, Miaka says she didn't read the rules. But since she's teamed up with me, I would explain to her how the spy works in case we would have been the spy... she already asked me some questions on the first day. There I explained the lists and also that you may not reveal your list too obviously either etc.

If you were so eager to explain everything to her, why didn't you explain the rest of the basics of the game to her? She seems to not know very much about the game thus far. You pretending that there's absolutely nothing to question in the events and Miaka's posts as part of your absence is really stretching credibility, to me.

But you can clearly see that Jd- tries to blame someone else, with the evidence used for being "inactive". Although my team voted on Day 1 and also this day (Miakas PM), we seem to have forgotten how to kill? Would we really do that? No, we wouldn't forget to vote a second time!

You were here on the first day and could have done anything you wanted; you were not here and Miaka couldn't do anything she wanted because she didn't know what was best for her team. That makes the results from the two days incongruous.

But did the spy really forget to vote this day? On day 5 where the detective is already out of the game? No! The spy purposefully didn't kill today, since he didn't have to kill the detective anymore! Instead, he would have killed a civilian for sure. And THAT would give the civilians one team less to worry about whether they are the spy. Which is really clever. AND someone as clever as Jd- would have seen this miles away! But he uses the "no killing this day" as evidence to blame teams, especially my team.

If you are telling me that it is impossible for Miaka to not know what she's doing and thus send in a vote at the last minute without a kill due to not knowing whether it was good or bad to do so, you're obviously joking at this point.

More importantly, I think you're wrong about your conclusion about the lack of a kill, if it were deliberate. I don't think they're worried about having one less civilian team in that scenario but instead having one more list in the open. Most likely, they've seen that the focus from the revealed lists has gone a certain way and they may be on only one or none of them, so risking having themselves placed under new suspicion when otherwise they could coast by is a far more likely scenario.

[RoboG55]

I suppose it's fine. I was expecting that to happen; it was inevitable. Okay, so tell me what I did wrong to get suspected. All I was is surprised that I'm not as trusted. I mean, only one person voted otherwise! XD
Well good luck y'all!
Anyway about to go cry in a corner (For real.) Seriously, I'm starting to stress from the news two days ago. Anyway, I'm out.

[Conan-chandesune]

Man, that went well. See,
Dumtryu and Cider could have double bluffed us on day 1 to earn confidence.
Kleene and Miaka could be evil, evil spies.
SA and Bash may be pretending to have civilian concerns to fool us.
Jd- could have played me.
At this point, anything's possible and we're screwed.

[Togop]

Enough sophistry, Jd-. You're only strengtening my suspicion that you're on the informant team, which IMO would further support that dumytru/Cider are the spies.
shinichi'sapprentice, you said at some point that if Jd-'s the informant, then probably the spy's kamite/breva. Could you elaborate on that?

[Togop]

Okay, so tell me what I did wrong to get suspected.

You appeared on too many lists. The two revealed lists contained your name; additionally there were a few people nominating you/voting for you, and assuming they were using their lists for that, it makes for a fairly solid evidence that you're the spy.

Actually, considering how unlikely is that you'd be on so many lists as a civillian, that means the people nominating you probably didn't base it on their lists. The assumption that those people don't have lists becomes more probable.

*having considered the above, checks who exactly made the nominations /votes for Robo/Meme, amd that would be*

Kleene/Miaka on day 1
Dumytru on day 2
Jd- on day three.

Seems to fit with my theory that Jd-'s ton the informant team, and dumytru/Cider are the spies.

[Jd-]

Enough sophistry, Jd-. You're only strengtening my suspicion that you're on the informant team, which IMO would further support that dumytru/Cider are the spies.

As I said before, any suggestions you have about other teams should be completely independent of myself and KL. This goes doubly for dumytru & Cider who have done nothing but demonstrate they are civilians from Day 1.

As for us being Informants and any "sophistry":

How do you explain the fact that we completely and obviously voted for Kain/Jellitto from our list?

Go back and look at every mention I made of their team, dating back to the very first nomination. They were the most suspicious team from our list at the time, and we asked for two days for them to come forward and defend themselves and give us reason to not vote for them. We waited and waited and waited and waited and they never came forward with any sort of substantial information until the very end. While it did end up they were the Detectives, they could have very easily have been the Spies.

I cannot possibly be right 100% of the time, but I was right that they were a special role. I was right about Fujiwara last game, and I was right about Raiden being the Spy the first game. Thus far, I've used the lists as consistently as anyone and in all three rounds. The Spies and Informants do not have lists. Kain/Jellitto weren't even on the revealed lists, especially not by the time KL & I nominated them. I, again, feel like we're wasting time going over this over and over and over. No one can debate this point because it's simply abundantly clear that KL & I are civilians who found the Detectives by accident through our list and, despite giving them ample time to defend themselves and get out of it, they did not do so and thus were unfortunately and haphazardly arrested.

[Togop]

I guess I could start linking to all logical fallacies you make in your posts, but I'm not up to it right now. But I will say that I don't see a single piece of evidence dosproving the following theory: You are the informant. You randomly suggested someone who was not a spy and could convince us to vote for. When it turned out they were the detective, you figured you could claim that you based your nomination on your list as evidence that you have a list.

[Jd-]

I guess I could start linking to all logical fallacies you make in your posts, but I'm not up to it right now. But I will say that I don't see a single piece of evidence dosproving the following theory: You are the informant. You randomly suggested someone who was not a spy and could convince us to vote for. When it turned out they were the detective, you figured you could claim that you based your nomination on your list as evidence that you have a list.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence; your theory in itself is a logical fallacy.

Are you saying we got lucky on our first and only nomination at that point in the game, which just so happened to have been a special role? What's really more likely? That we simply eliminated likely Spy suspects from our list and went with the one we felt was more suspicious, or we randomly were able to pinpoint the Detective team in one shot without any starting means to find them? No one was even dead or arrested at that point.

This is just wasting valuable time. I'm waiting for shinichi'sapprentice to come around and share his thoughts so we have some actual information to go on.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

a laptop has finally appeared within my reach. post/replies/explanations/thoughts coming up . . stay tuned as the remaining 16 hours of our last shot to catch the spies nears its end. Jd- has not posted so far what i'd like to hear from him to prove himself innocent, at least in my eyes . . it's early morning on where my partner is. while he's going to start his busy day, i have the rest of the night to post as much information/thoughts i can share to reach out to the remaining 4 fellow civilian teams out there. partner promised to have time to talk about stuff before the game ends. i might not be able to sleep, too. because of all this excitement. i will be at work tomorrow, 3 hours before the game ends. so i'll make use of the 13 hours that i have before that. while i wait for my partner, i'll start what i have to say. i owe Meme, Togop, and miyano_shiho replies.

Later. *will be busy rereading* *and needs a lot of thinking*

[Togop]

I never said absence of evidence is evidence of absense. I just said that the lack of evidence against this theory makes it a possibility, and so your claim that you

completely and obviously voted for Kain/Jellitto from our list

is unjustified. It is possible that you didn't vote from our list. Presenting one possibility of several as the completely and obviously correct answer is a well-known rethoric device.
While it is true that it's more likely to choose the detective if you based your nomination on a list, that's one single piece of evidence. There are other pieces of evidence I've mentioned, and considering them all together, I don't think that overall it's more likely than not that you have a list.