ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

[Conan-chandesune]

I think that..... the spy's a lot cleverer this time around. I think he may be posting civilian concerns a lot to misdirect attention............ And who is he??? No Idea...........

[Jecka]

Miyano's really really busy right now so I guess I'm the one who has to speak for the both of us, huh? :x
Uhm, crap I can't think this early in the morning

I'll just like to point out that we didn't vote for the detective and we have been sending a vote everyday.
As for who to vote, I'm kinda leaning towards Team 7.

This doesn't really count. I hope you'll elaborate on that. Did you have any suspicions on who's the detective? Who do you trust to be civillian? Why Team 7? Why not Team 5?

>_> reason #1 why I rarely post: I never know what to say.
No we didn't.
I trust teams 3 and 11.
Because Kamite and I feel like they could post a little more.
I haven't ruled out Team 5 yet.
Edit: Actually we're fairly certain Team 5 is not the spy

[breva]

OK. everyone, now that the detective is out, we need all possible deductions laid down on the table, as there's no further need to protect the detective. Thus, list all your theories so far.

1)I didn't really suspected someone of being the detective, but I was leaning towards team 3 because why else would you vote for yourself unless you have a list. Then, Jelitto's post seemed desperated so I started thinking he could be the detective
2)I agree with you on cider-dumytru, they are the less suspicious for me
3) Not sure how to answer this without talking about lists(?
4)Not sure how would you have evidence of being civilian, it's not like we can talk about our lists and stuff
6)No idea what you're talking about, you have me like

as for Team 7's votes for the entire round so far, here they are:
Day 1 = Team 2: Fujiwara's Team
Day 2 = Team 11: Kleene's Team
Day 3 = Team 8: Jecka and miyano

Team 5's votes:
Day 1 = Team 11
Day 2 = themselves
Day 3 = Team 8

both team's voting directions seem to be pointless. Team 7 going with other's votes and Team 5 being random. both look to me like they're going on a voting spree without having a list.

I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say here, sorry

Not sure if it actually happened, but I would´ve liked to hear why shinichi´sapprentice voted Kain and Jellitto and why he didn´t announce it like everyone else who did that, despite making many posts since then.

That's a good point. I mean, I think only the spies would benefit from not saying their vote while going with the flow...

Edit: as for voting I'll decide after I come back home from class since Kamite is busy and doesn't seem to be around...

[bash7353]

I've been busy which is why I haven't really said much. I've tried to keep up with what's going on here in the topic and talk about it with my team mate. Here's what I'm thinking:

This is the first round we're playing with the new rule saying if you fail to send in a vote you'll automatically vote yourself rather than someone random or someone from your list as it was in previous rounds. There were quite a few instances in Rounds 1 and 2 where we later learned that players didn't send in a vote:
- When Raiden got arrested in Round 2, it was pointed out that he only received more votes than Meme instead of tying her was that Kain didn't send in a vote and Raiden happened to be top of her list.
- Yuri voted me three times in a row last round which she later said was just due to her loosing track of time or something.
- Cider put a message up last round and edited parts of it out that I assumed were saying that she didn't send in a vote, although I'm not entirely sure about that.

I think it's very possible that due to that the Spy team thought it's likely to happen again here on Day 1. They decided to vote someone random or whoever they said they were going to vote complying with the tie strategy, and purposefully didn't include a kill order. They were hoping that we'd see some teams voting themselves and thought those were most likely to be the Spies that forgot to send Yuri a message altogether. They just didn't expect that the rule change actually did what it was intended to do which was giving people incentives to make an actual voting decision rather than doing nothing. The only team that voted itself was us, and we were going to do that beforehand, so it wasn't just 'cause we forgot to send the private message.


My guess as to what happened with the Detective is this:
They realised that they were likely to be arrested as soon as Jd- asked the alliance that he was hoping would form to vote them. At that time they were thinking that they may be able to save themselves by getting enough teams together and vote someone else and achieving a tie that way, so they said they'd follow Kleene's team in voting Team 7, so that's two votes for them already. I don't think we can infer that they investigated Team 7 and found they're the Spy, or even that they were suspicious of them in any way from that.

Jellitto did say this at a point before during Day 3:

I understand we appear to be suspicious because of day 1 (if not for something else), okay, but to me someone being so suspicious doesn´t mean they are the Spies.

I still think that the Spy team would not let themselves to appear as suspicious as we appear right now. If I was on the Spy team, I would do everything I could to not stand out. Not posting in the topic at day 1 and after that not kill anyone would be a grave mistake for the Spy team to make, because it doesn´t take long before someone starts to vote you because of that.

I have to say though that I trust the most the same people as you Jd-, and for the same reasons. I don´t trust anyone completely, but they´re at the moment the least suspicious. I trust Team 3 the most because of their ”suspiciousness” as it could be said. I also have the feeling that Jd- and KL aren´t the Spy team either. I´m not sure if they are Informants though as I´m not sure of anyone.

It sure seems that we´re doomed though if we don´t get other people to vote on someone else as much we´re going to have votes...

As Day 3 wasn't over yet they would have been able to investigate two different teams and due to that post I'm inclined to believe that was Jd-'s and Kaito Lady's team as well as ours. So I think we can be fairly certain neither of those two are the Spy team.

Right now, I'm leaning towards those as most likely the Spy team:
Team 8: Jex and Miyano
Team 11: Kleene and Miaka

The fact that Team 5 appears on both lists that have been partially revealed so far so far is something that we shouldn't disregard, though. From the probability point of view, only looking at the partially revealed lists, Team 5 is most likely to be the Spy team, but we're obviously nowhere near certainty with this as that's not much information. I think we should still vote them first. But if they do turn out to be the Spy, then they did have some bad luck. The lists of both teams they decide to kill include them and in both cases they are recognisable.

If, there is a team out there that doesn't have Team 9 (that we now know to be the Detective team) on their list, but Team 5 does appear, that would point towards them being the Spy. I'd advise them to come out in favour of arresting Team 5 as well.

Nope, after you nominated Kain and Jellitto the only ones who said they agree were Dumytru and conanchandesune. Bash didn´t say anything either.

He will probably be awake before phase change so I´ll wait, but for now I´d suggest voting him. After us, if nothing else.

I think you're right, we didn't say anything about voting Team 9 publicly which was partly because we didn't decide to until late in the phase. That was because I was busy earlier. But also, more importantly, we didn't realise voting someone without saying it publicly is suspicious in any way. Jd- suggested them, and we decided that we're in favour of this alliance at this time, which is why we went with it. You were gonna see who we voted for when Yuri posted it, so why do we have to tell you beforehand? That being said, if we had made the decision earlier we probably would've made it public before phase change. But I don't believe not doing so makes us suspicious in any way.

[dumytru]

If, there is a team out there that doesn't have Team 9 (that we now know to be the Detective team) on their list, but Team 5 does appear, that would point towards them being the Spy. I'd advise them to come out in favour of arresting Team 5 as well.

Actually if there's a team that has neither Team #9 nor Team #5. That'd be awesome.

I'm going to vote for Team #5, as I stated before.

[Memesu]

You´ll just waste one of the remaining two days if you arrest us.

Nope, after you nominated Kain and Jellitto the only ones who said they agree were Dumytru and conanchandesune. Bash didn´t say anything either.

He will probably be awake before phase change so I´ll wait, but for now I´d suggest voting him. After us, if nothing else.

I think you're right, we didn't say anything about voting Team 9 publicly which was partly because we didn't decide to until late in the phase. That was because I was busy earlier. But also, more importantly, we didn't realise voting someone without saying it publicly is suspicious in any way. Jd- suggested them, and we decided that we're in favour of this alliance at this time, which is why we went with it. You were gonna see who we voted for when Yuri posted it, so why do we have to tell you beforehand? That being said, if we had made the decision earlier we probably would've made it public before phase change. But I don't believe not doing so makes us suspicious in any way.

Well, maybe not. It just kinda stood out.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

i surprisingly woke up earlier than i expected. and Looks Like Team 5's fate has been decided.

Day 4! and 4th time repeating it: TO ALL CIVILIANS THAT DO NOT HAVE Team 9: KainTheVampire and Jellitto ON THEIR LISTS, ONE THING IS FOR SURE, THE SPY IS IN YOUR LISTS!!!!!!!

First things first, in reply to Jd-'s replies . .

In other words, the entire point was to avoid picking out inactive teams to sacrifice purely for ties.

this? who's the one in the past two rounds nominating quiet people. i get your point. but in the back of my mind, if Team 5 ends up innocent, i can't keep myself thinking that you did a very good job as an informant in protecting your spies.

as for Jellitto voting Team 7, i have no idea if i should trust her word or Jd-'s

I actually agree with several of your points, but want to point out that Jellitto obviously was voting for Team 7 because there was already an existing vote for them (Miaka/Kleene's). It was the best way to aim for a tie together, but notice that immediately after it was announced, Jellitto said about voting for Team 7:

I hadn't any reason. If you have someone else in mind who to vote, feel free to tell.

That's why I felt comfortable concluding the Detectives died not knowing who the Spies were because, if they had and it were Team 7, they would have never proposed to change their votes (which they did right afterward). It would have been advantageous to them to signal to us that they knew who it was and to arrest that team if anything happened to them, even if they died. They both know that there would be two phases left even after they died.

but, in the end, they voted for Team 7. it could only be an honest mess up, or the detectives thought they'll die anyway so as last clue for us, they voted them again.

--

now, if only Jd- or Togop will be online at least before Day 4 ends/Day 5 begins, who do you suggest we should vote for the next day if Team 5 ends up innocent. i say this, because if one of our three teams die today, it'll be helpful for the remaining living teams.

--

as for Meme's concern, i believe my partner has addressed it already.

Nope, after you nominated Kain and Jellitto the only ones who said they agree were Dumytru and conanchandesune. Bash didn´t say anything either.

He will probably be awake before phase change so I´ll wait, but for now I´d suggest voting him. After us, if nothing else.

I think you're right, we didn't say anything about voting Team 9 publicly which was partly because we didn't decide to until late in the phase. That was because I was busy earlier. But also, more importantly, we didn't realise voting someone without saying it publicly is suspicious in any way. Jd- suggested them, and we decided that we're in favour of this alliance at this time, which is why we went with it. You were gonna see who we voted for when Yuri posted it, so why do we have to tell you beforehand? That being said, if we had made the decision earlier we probably would've made it public before phase change. But I don't believe not doing so makes us suspicious in any way.

if you are dissatisfied with that, let me know.

[dumytru]

In other words, the entire point was to avoid picking out inactive teams to sacrifice purely for ties.

this? who's the one in the past two rounds nominating quiet people. i get your point. but in the back of my mind, if Team 5 ends up innocent, i can't keep myself thinking that you did a very good job as an informant in protecting your spies.

There's quite a difference between nominating inactive people to be arrested and nominating people to make tie.

[miakakiri]

OK. everyone, now that the detective is out, we need all possible deductions laid down on the table, as there's no further need to protect the detective. Thus, list all your theories so far.
1) Some people said they though they knew who the detective was. Who did you suspect of being the detective, and why?
2) Other than Jd-'s list, clearly more aiming to get together an alliance than to actually list people who we have serious reasons to believe are civillians, we don't know anyone's opinions on who's not the spy. So, everyone, say who do you really believe is not the spy.
3) Of course, everyone, bring fourth your suspect lists. While we should definitely focus on finding the spy, figuring out who the informant is could be a very strong lead. I'll post my thought ont hat later after I sort them out.
4) If you have any compelling evidence that you're a civillian, do come fourth.
5) Finally, I want everyone, or at least every team, to reply to the above points. That's to make sure the spy replies, too.

6) On a different note, there was something I set up during prep phase. "ac5e0e3", which I jokingly suggested as a team name, is the ending of a certain md5 hash. Can you guess what text is that md5 hash of?

I also have one more point, but it's going to wait until a little bit.

1) I had no ideas who the detective might be. This is my first time playing and I don't know what I'm doing. Kleene-san didn't mention any ideas about who the Detective might be either.
2) See above, re I have no idea what I'm doing.
3) Erm.... I/we don't actually have a "suspect list". We've been voting random, often by using Archi as our randomizer--I ask him to pick a number between 1 and 10 (as I can't see a reason to vote for ourselves) and that becomes our vote. (I don't think I'm allowed to talk about what might or might not be on the list we got from Yuri-san.)
4) I am not sure what would make 'compelling evidence'. This is the first time I've played and I'm not even entirely clear on the rules because I forgot to read them before the game started and I've had a busy week. Yesterday I spent the whole day at the Museum of Science in Boston with my brothers. Left on the 7am bus to Boston and returned home after 10pm.
5) Not sure how helpful my responses will be, but here you are.
6) No clues.

Please note, I am truly not all that clear on what I am allowed to talk about here, especially regarding the list. You can chalk it all up to the usual level of Miaka-confusion if you want. Toss in the fact that the game started basically right after I got back from a mini-vacation and I've had a busy week since.... someone give me a pointer or two in what I'm allowed to say, or ask Kleene.

[miakakiri]

Spy Suspects
Kleene Onigiri & Miaka: I'm a little inclined to suspect Kleene on account of her being a little more forceful than usual throughout this round. She's not had to face any nominations or very serious suspicions yet, but has still spent a lot of the game ensuring that the civilian population remains in disarray and without much direction. As above, I'm not really aware of anything that would lead me to believe they're civilians to this point.

Blame this on me. Kleene is well aware that I have been otherwise occupied and have no clue what I'm doing/how to play. Rundown of my week: Monday--morning meeting, got stuck due to Archi not waking up; Tuesday--sick; Wednesday--doc appointment (stitches out of thumb) and running errands on foot all over downtown; Thursday--bus to Boston at 7am, returned home after 10pm; Friday: I have a meeting, errands to run, bills to pay, and paycheck-related things to sort out.
Kleene is probably being a little more forceful than usual because she isn't all that experienced with this herself and is saddled with a partner who hasn't even managed to read the rules.

[miyano_shiho]

Miyano's really really busy right now so I guess I'm the one who has to speak for the both of us, huh? :x
Uhm, crap I can't think this early in the morning

I'll just like to point out that we didn't vote for the detective and we have been sending a vote everyday.
As for who to vote, I'm kinda leaning towards Team 7.

This doesn't really count. I hope you'll elaborate on that. Did you have any suspicions on who's the detective? Who do you trust to be civillian? Why Team 7? Why not Team 5?

>_> reason #1 why I rarely post: I never know what to say.
No we didn't.
I trust teams 3 and 11.
Because Kamite and I feel like they could post a little more.
I haven't ruled out Team 5 yet.
Edit: Actually we're fairly certain Team 5 is not the spy

What Jecka said

---

I am posting now since we've got some information that the remaining civilian teams may need. I haven't read everything in the thread thoroughly so I couldn't make deductions based on behavior, but here's the best I could give. If you don't want us civilians to lose, you better take note of these.


Teams being suspected in the thread that are certainly NOT THE SPIES:
Team 8: Jecka and miyano_shiho (just so you remember not to vote us)
Team 5: RoboG55 and Meme
Team 3: shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth
Team 11: Kleene Onigiri and Miaka

MOST PROBABLY SPIES:
Team 7: Kamite and Breva (the team we're voting for this phase)


Mathematically speaking, I can say that there is at least 25% chance that team 7 are the spies. Based on Jd-'s and dumytru's lists of suspects, by elimination, it is very highly likely they are indeed the spies. If they aren't, my next choice would be Team 6: Conan-chandesune and Togop.

If anyone has reasons not to vote team 7, please tell us immediately. I apologize for not having time to post earlier.

Edit: Also, if you think I'm violating any rule by posting this, please tell as well (though I'm gonna be sleeping soon and won't have time to go on at least 12 hours from now)

[Memesu]

Sorry.

Why do you think Kamite and Breva are spies?

[Fujiwara]

I know I'm dead and all that, but the rules clearly state:

DO NOT POST YOUR LIST OR DISCUSS ITS DIRECT CONTENTS WITH ANY OTHER PLAYERS, IN PUBLIC OR PRIVATE, OUTSIDE OF YOUR TEAM.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

finally, a person who nominated another team.

~.~

but my vote still won't be changed. not strong enough statement you got there. although, this will be the fifth time i say it,
TO ALL CIVILIANS THAT DO NOT HAVE Team 9: KainTheVampire and Jellitto ON THEIR LISTS, ONE THING IS FOR SURE, THE SPY IS IN YOUR LISTS!!!!!!!
say something more to back it up. i will not point out what i want to hear. if you're the spy, all the more reason not to point it out. take the time to think about it.

--Edit: Fujiwara!! i know. . i know. that's why it's been annoying. but the civilians gotta be creative on how they reveal information. i want to give example from what i asked round 2's gamemaster Stopwatch, but i'll have to wait when the game ends.

[Memesu]

Me nominating your team was nothing, I see