ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

[Jd-]

Btw if you mean we just randomly picked a team to vote, no we did not. I was not the one to vote, but it seems since Team 11 voted us and we voted them back, it was probably so we would tie each other?

I'm pretty sure that's not possible. Kleene mentioned in her post after the phase that it was amusing/surprising that your two teams voted for each other. So the idea that it came about to tie each other seems... impossible, at least to me. There weren't any posts arranging that sort of thing, so the only explanation would be unless it were the Informants/Spies voting for each other to cover one another's tracks later on.

[Togop]

I'll start with some review

Prep phase:
1) Fujiwara calls for tie-voting
2) GE calls for voting-not-from-the-list

Day 1:
3) Jd- mentions "What I expect will happen is that the Detective/Spy teams will have the most reservations about this."
4) I propose my tie strategy which doesn't require everyone's cooperation and involves a nomination process.
5) I nominate Team 1: Kleene and Miaka
6) Team Raifuujiwara nominates Team 7: Kamite and Breva
7) Jd- stops the nomination process and proposes that the tie is between me/Con-chan and Raifuujiwara.
8) Kamite joins
9) GE/SA strongly oppose the tie plan
10) Stopwatch and dumytru cooperate to arrange the tie.
11) Kain and Jellitto vote for Jecka and Shiho
12) Kleene/Miaka and Robo/Meme exchange votes

Day 2:
13) "I can only imagine the Spy team was just inactive and lost track of time. Would be great to hear from Kain/Jellitto, Kamite/Breva, and Robo/Meme" Jd-
Omits Jecka/Shiho from the list of not-very-actives
14) Seveal prompts from Jd- to hear from Kain and Jellitto
15) Con-chan nominates Shin'sapp
16) Stopwatch: "If everyone lists one "read" on a team (either Spy, Detective or Civilian) then we have some information to work off"
17) Jd- nominates Kain/Jellitto
18) Kleene nominates Kamite/Breva
19) Dumytru nominates Robo/Meme
20) Raifuujiwara killed. Robo/Meme and Jd-/KL on their list.
21) Kain/Jellitto tied for arrest

Day 3:
22) Jd- proposes a voting alliance
23) Jd- nominates Kain/Jellitto
24) "I trust Team 3 [SA/GE] the most because of their ”suspiciousness” as it could be said. I also have the feeling that Jd- and KL aren´t the Spy team either. I´m not sure if they are Informants though as I´m not sure of anyone."
-Detective Jellitto after two Investigates. Was there an Investigate during prep phase?
25) Jellitto nominates Kamite/Breva. Breva suggests Team 8 instead; Jellitto switches.
26) Hime-chan/Stopwatch killed, Kamite/Breva, Robo/Meme/ Cider/Dumytru on the list

Analysis of the above coming in my next post.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

24) "I trust Team 3 [SA/GE] the most because of their ”suspiciousness” as it could be said. I also have the feeling that Jd- and KL aren´t the Spy team either. I´m not sure if they are Informants though as I´m not sure of anyone."
-Detective Jellitto after two Investigates. Was there an Investigate during prep phase?

i don't think so. at prep phase, everybody gets to know each other and their roles. all actions are sent to the gamemaster before prep phase ends/ day 1 begins. by actions, i mean orders. is it the same for the investigate ability?

[Togop]

References below are for my previous post.

Based on 24), Jd-/KL and SA/GE are not spies. They could still be informant.
Consder 3). It was a statement made before we could see how everyone reacts to the tie proposition. If Jd- intended to see who resists most and add them to his suspects list, he obviously would have waited before making this statement. Instead, it is a statement which would encourage the spy to join the tie arrangement. Unfortunately, whether the spy team really did join is questionable, since they didn't kill.
There are three explanations for the no-kill. First, it could be due to inactivity. Second, maybe the informant team hadn't identified themselves yet. Finally, it could be a cover. Diverting suspicion is way more important than making a kill, so using a no-kill for that purpose is entirely possible.
First, assume the no-kill was a cover-up. The teams who joined the day 1 tie strategy, are still alive, and are not cleared from suspicion, are dumytru/Cider and Kamite/Breva (also me/Con-chan, but I can exclude our team thanks to knowing our role). Kamite/Breva were not very active in general, but clearly participated in day 1.
Alternatively, the spy could indeed have been one of the less active teams during day 1. That includes Robo/Meme, Kleene/Miaka and Jecka/Miyano. I haven't been following activity that much, this is a list I composed mostly based on your and Jd-'s posts.
Now consider 26). Out of the above teams, the only one who would want to kill a relatively inactive team like Hime-chan/Stopwatch is dumytru/Cider. Normally the spy would want as many inactive teams as possible. This is not the case for dumytru/Cider, as most active teams believe they are almost certainly not guilty. Of course, it could have been a random kill (random-killing causes confusion and is thus not a bad strategy).
There is a stack of evidence already mentioned against Robo/Meme. Unfortunately, there is too little info on Kleene/Miaka and Jecka/Miyano thanks to their low activity to say anything about any of them.

So, KLEENE, MIAKA, JECKA, MIYANO SHIHO!!!!! UNLESS YOU TWO TEAMS ARE THE SPY/INFORMANT PAIR, SPEAK UP!
Now, we'll have the chance to arrest Robo tomorrow. Today, we MUST make those teams speak up. So, for now I'm nominating whoever of them doesn't make a satisfactory post answering viewtopic.php?f=30&t=12172&start=285#p801943

[shinichi'sapprentice]

i really wanted to wait for Togop's post, but i gotta go sleep. people usually fill a whole page of new posts/replies by the time i wake up, so i gotta leave some last insights . . i'll repeat it the third time: TO ALL CIVILIANS THAT DO NOT HAVE Team 9: KainTheVampire and Jellitto ON THEIR LISTS, ONE THING IS FOR SURE, THE SPY IS IN YOUR LISTS!!!!!!!

i also want to reply to every points that Jd- replied to in my previous post. but that's gotta wait for a few hours, as i'm tired and sleepy. i sure hope my partner shares his insights too when he gets the time. i'm switching to my phone now, so i probably won't be able to post long.

--

hah! Togop posted!

so your suspects are the ones on red? and if the Day 1 no kill is indeed a strategy, your spy suspect is dumytru's team? who are your informants suspect then?

for now, i guess it's safe to vote for Team 5. and if they end up being innocent, we'll have to consider the remaining inactives that you posted in red. though, it will also depend on what they will have to say. BUT, if the Day 1 no kill was a strategy, my suspect of being spies then, will be Team 7, with Team 4 as informants.

that's all i have to say for now.

good night people.

[Togop]

hah! Togop posted!

so your suspects are the ones on red? and if the Day 1 no kill is indeed a strategy, your spy suspect is dumytru's team?

Not exactly. I find them less likely to be the spies than Robo/Meme, but more likely than dumytru/Cider. Thus optimally, I would vote for Robo/Meme now, and then hopefully would have more information to base tomorrow's vote on. However, there's not gonna be any more information if those two don't speak (how I wish this were live mafia where you can't ignore when directly addressed). Thus, in this particular case, I feel using a less optimal order to make them speak would be a good idea.

[shinichi'sapprentice]

i'm leaning to voting for Team 5 as well. though, i've yet to know my partner's stand on this. Last round, Meme became suspicious too. she didn't say much to defend herself. i voted for her, but she ended up being a civilian anyway. if this round it's the same, then our second to the last shot to catching the spies will be a disappointing waste. but we don't have any reasons not to vote for them either. so, Last two phase. if Team 5 ends up being innocent, we have to strengthen our resolve on catching these spies. not to mention someone will die too. if the team who dies is ours, it's up to Togop and Jd-'s team then. though, if it really is not Team 5 that are the spies, as of right now, i'll believe that Team 7 are the spies.

[Jecka]

Miyano's really really busy right now so I guess I'm the one who has to speak for the both of us, huh? :x
Uhm, crap I can't think this early in the morning

I'll just like to point out that we didn't vote for the detective and we have been sending a vote everyday.
As for who to vote, I'm kinda leaning towards Team 7.

[Jd-]

[Memesu]

OK. everyone, now that the detective is out, we need all possible deductions laid down on the table, as there's no further need to protect the detective. Thus, list all your theories so far.
1) Some people said they though they knew who the detective was. Who did you suspect of being the detective, and why?
I suspected shinichi'sapprentice and GE. I suspected he was the detective because of his dissatisfaction with day 1's tie and his dissatisfaction of the fact that is was impossible to infer about people's lists based on their posts. When SA said he wanted to vote for us on day one, but decided against after discussing it with his GE, but then never nominated me and CC again in day 2, I suspected that was because they had used Investigate.
2) Other than Jd-'s list, clearly more aiming to get together an alliance than to actually list people who we have serious reasons to believe are civillians, we don't know anyone's opinions on who's not the spy. So, everyone, say who do you really believe is not the spy.
So far, unfortunately, I don't have serious reasons to believe any team is civillian. The most trustworthy so far are dumytru and Cider, but even them I can't exonerate. What day did ind ay 0 was to ensure the tie does occur; that's not something hindering the spy much, so the spy could as well have done it to divert suspicion.
3) Of course, everyone, bring fourth your suspect lists. While we should definitely focus on finding the spy, figuring out who the informant is could be a very strong lead. I'll post my thought ont hat later after I sort them out.
4) If you have any compelling evidence that you're a civillian, do come fourth.
5) Finally, I want everyone, or at least every team, to reply to the above points. That's to make sure the spy replies, too.

6) On a different note, there was something I set up during prep phase. "ac5e0e3", which I jokingly suggested as a team name, is the ending of a certain md5 hash. Can you guess what text is that md5 hash of?

I also have one more point, but it's going to wait until a little bit.

1. I was kinda thinking dumytru and Cider could be detectives, no idea if Robo suspected anyone.
2. Right now the ones who I think is probably not the spy is Jd- and Kl plus Kamite and Breva (Kamite and Breva because they agreed with jellitto)
3. As for our list, not a single name in them has shown up yet and one couple is out of the game. Not sure what else I should say.

4.I was around nearly all of day one and did sent a vote. (Also noted the funny coincidence after it was done, since Jd- seems to mistake me for Kleene who posted about similar votes after day two :x)
For the second day inactivity, I´ve already posted my reasons here, flimsy as thought they must sound Plus I was also preoccupied with pokemon.

5. Done
6. No idea what you´re talking about

RoboG55 & Meme: Our leading suspects at this point. Not only one of the quietest teams in the game that has been included on two different lists now, there are factors suggesting how Day 1 could have happened here. RoboG55 is still learning mafia-type games at this point and was reluctant to act without Meme. If Meme had been busy and not had time to send in a kill on Day 1, it seems quite likely to me that RoboG55 would have been hesitant to make such a decision and instead leave it to Meme, who didn't get it in on time. While Meme changed her vote at the last minute, Kain herself mentioned in the topic she had been talking (about non-game stuff) with Meme on Skype just prior to Meme changing her vote. My guess is Meme changed her vote to be friendly and supportive, because it would've been a little awkward if she just let her get arrested without trying to help when they were so closely in correspondence outside the game.

Partly that, and partly because I thought the spy might jump at the change to get two townies out of the came. Not sure if it actually happened, but I would´ve liked to hear why shinichi´sapprentice voted Kain and Jellitto and why he didn´t announce it like everyone else who did that, despite making many posts since then.
And also why you didn´t point that out at all, Jd-. You don´t think it´s suspicious at all? I´d like to hear why.

[Jd-]

Here's the problem we face right now: We cannot afford another tie. We should be at least marginally certain of who we try to arrest today. We need actual evidence and some sort of supporting reasoning to direct our arrest. The reason? If we tie today, we will almost certainly lose tomorrow.

If we mess around and end up with a tie now, when the game is ending in a finite amount of turns, we will decrease our chances of winning dramatically. We have to act on our leads while we still can. We already have a fair number of certain civilian teams. If KL & I die tonight, we will have shinichi'sapprentice/googleearth, Conan-chandesune/Togop, and Cider/dumytru to get us through tomorrow at the very least. However, if we end up with another tie, we're right back to the mess that is today and we'll only have one shot at getting the Spies instead of the two that we really, really need. The only sensible thing for us to do is to settle on one suspect team today with the evidence we have and deal with tomorrow as it comes.

KL & I are currently voting for Team 5, RoboG55 & Meme, due to the litany of situational evidence based on the results and theories from Day 1 to now. If anyone else wants to seriously nominate another team, please give us ample reason to do so before the phase change.

[Memesu]

Please answer my question.

[Jd-]

Please answer my question.

This one?

Not sure if it actually happened, but I would´ve liked to hear why shinichi´sapprentice voted Kain and Jellitto and why he didn´t announce it like everyone else who did that, despite making many posts since then.
And also why you didn´t point that out at all, Jd-. You don´t think it´s suspicious at all? I´d like to hear why.

I actually thought he mentioned in the topic who he was voting for. Did he not?

[Memesu]

Nope, after you nominated Kain and Jellitto the only ones who said they agree were Dumytru and conanchandesune. Bash didn´t say anything either.

He will probably be awake before phase change so I´ll wait, but for now I´d suggest voting him. After us, if nothing else.

[Togop]

Miyano's really really busy right now so I guess I'm the one who has to speak for the both of us, huh? :x
Uhm, crap I can't think this early in the morning

I'll just like to point out that we didn't vote for the detective and we have been sending a vote everyday.
As for who to vote, I'm kinda leaning towards Team 7.

This doesn't really count. I hope you'll elaborate on that. Did you have any suspicions on who's the detective? Who do you trust to be civillian? Why Team 7? Why not Team 5?