Mafia Game Round 7 (BO Wins)

[Kleene Onigiri]

I could look at your ava the whole day

[Conia]

I could look at your ava the whole day

Stop imitating me !!
*Keeps watching paix672 avie*

[Akonyl]

alrighty then, a few things:
1) maybe I missed it but I don't know why xpon thinks holmes is so suspicious anyway
2) I like how schillok included himself in his deduction of why he could be mafia (which is sorta like xpon's vermouth thing, but that's beside the point for now)
3) I like how schillok didn't include me in his deduction, even though I'm basically the guy who started the accusation (although pofa did later).

as to letting xpon survive the day I'm not exactly sure how much that would help.
a) We'd need to lynch someone else today, who unless we have someone else as suspicious as xpon lined up we would probably be killing a townie.
b1) if xpon is sherry, holmes is BO: xpon follows, gets a scent, we lynch holmes day 2 and then sherry's dead with poison without having the chance to follow anyone else.
b2) if xpon is BO, holmes is townie: xpon claims to get a scent, we lynch holmes day 2 and find out we were tricked, and lynch xpon on day 3.
b3) if xpon is sherry, holmes is townie: xpon follows, says he got no scent, we lynch someone else day 2 and sherry's poisoned.
b4) if xpon is BO, holmes is BO: then this outcome depends entirely on what plan they set up but it isn't good.

So in scenarios 1 and 2, it's a 1 bo for 2 townie death (counting the random lynching we have today), which isn't very beneficial, and in scenario 3 and 4 we don't get any BO info at all and we just lynch other random townies (unless in plan 4 they sell out holmes). Unless I'm missing something there?

also regarding killing haibara (being killing a strong character), keep in mind that the role's been changed a lot since its first form (like eisuke did too, indirectly), as she's only able to do it during the day now, and if she gets a positive result she can't use it the next day. So basically she's very similar to the interrogators, although she can't be slandered (although akai/okiya scents and anokata's lack of one are sort of like slandering in that it gives equally unreliable results). So, I'm not really sure how good she is, compared to the other detective roles.

and conia, pofa's post makes me wonder, does the presence of 1 detective boy mean that there's at least one other?

[Schillok]

Well, best option would be a tie. But that's hard to achieve imo. (but I hope for that)
And like I already said, a dream could be a good clue too.

Ohh well... I guess I have made myself a big enough target already. So no reason to keep it a secret. I had a dream this night.

To make it short: Kleene(*town*),Commi-Ninja(*town*),xpon(*town, but not Haibara*),Holmes(Korn) and pofa(*town*)

So yeah, I had my reasons why I wanted Holmes as a target for xpon.
Just in case anyone is wondering, I have kept the roles of the other players secret, for obvious reasons.

So since it is 99% sure that xpons identity was wrong that leaves a 25% chance that Holmes is really Korn. Even if the remaining 75% are true and he is not Korn he has the same chance of being another BO member as any other player. So he is actually the best target we have.

As I said, I originally wanted xpon to find that out. But... maybe let's change the plan. If there is still time for that.


So I suggest the new plan:
Vote for Holmes. [To be honest his lack of cooperation made him even more suspicious to me.]

xpon, if you get back before the deadline: Follow Kleene instead.

Kleene, you tell us next night if you were followed. Or not. Depending on that the steps for the night will be planed

If there is a Detective Boy left: Can you find out if xpon is really Sherry like he claim to be? Depending on the results he and Kleene report we might need your feedback.

[Akonyl]

out of curiosity, why is it 99% that xpon's identity was wrong? Short of the dream claiming he was ayumi or your role, it would be just as likely the dream was wrong about him as it is about holmes wouldn't it?

[Paix672]

I could look at your ava the whole day

I could look at your ava the whole day

Stop imitating me !!
*Keeps watching paix672 avie*

out of curiosity, why is it 99% that xpon's identity was wrong? Short of the dream claiming he was ayumi or your role, it would be just as likely the dream was wrong about him as it is about holmes wouldn't it?

I was wondering about that too.

[Conia]

and conia, pofa's post makes me wonder, does the presence of 1 detective boy mean that there's at least one other?

Since only 1 DB in the game is extremely underpowered, what I did was: while picking roles, if there was at least 1 DB by the end, I'll randomly pick a player to be another DB.
So, it is like pofa claims (There can also be 3 DBs, but that it's just random and very lucky)

[Schillok]

as to letting xpon survive the day I'm not exactly sure how much that would help.
a) We'd need to lynch someone else today, who unless we have someone else as suspicious as xpon lined up we would probably be killing a townie.
b1) if xpon is sherry, holmes is BO: xpon follows, gets a scent, we lynch holmes day 2 and then sherry's dead with poison without having the chance to follow anyone else.
b2) if xpon is BO, holmes is townie: xpon claims to get a scent, we lynch holmes day 2 and find out we were tricked, and lynch xpon on day 3.
b3) if xpon is sherry, holmes is townie: xpon follows, says he got no scent, we lynch someone else day 2 and sherry's poisoned.
b4) if xpon is BO, holmes is BO: then this outcome depends entirely on what plan they set up but it isn't good.

So in scenarios 1 and 2, it's a 1 bo for 2 townie death (counting the random lynching we have today), which isn't very beneficial, and in scenario 3 and 4 we don't get any BO info at all and we just lynch other random townies (unless in plan 4 they sell out holmes). Unless I'm missing something there?

Well, we have to replace "Holmes" with Kleene now. But otherwise: If both come to the "innocent" conclusion (no scent; got followed) it means they are in the same fraction (both town or both BO). If they get different results (scent; got not followed) it means at least one of them is BO.
Either way seems beneficial to us.

also regarding killing haibara (being killing a strong character), keep in mind that the role's been changed a lot since its first form (like eisuke did too, indirectly), as she's only able to do it during the day now, and if she gets a positive result she can't use it the next day. So basically she's very similar to the interrogators, although she can't be slandered (although akai/okiya scents and anokata's lack of one are sort of like slandering in that it gives equally unreliable results). So, I'm not really sure how good she is, compared to the other detective roles.

Yeah, Haibara got weaker (I think the restriction of not being able to follow the following day is unnecessary. But that is... something else.)
But she is still stronger in discovering other BO than any other character, especially in the beginning.

out of curiosity, why is it 99% that xpon's identity was wrong? Short of the dream claiming he was ayumi or your role, it would be just as likely the dream was wrong about him as it is about holmes wouldn't it?

The dream said he is a town role. If he is BO trying to confuse us then it means my dream about him was wrong, which means one of the other roles must be right.
If he is Sherry then it means my dream about him was wrong as well. Again, this increases the chances of each of the remaining 4 to 25%.
The remaining 1% is xpon claiming to be Haibara while being another town role. In which case I hope he realizes what mess his acting brought us in. And himself, since he will fail to prove his role this day. But that would have been extremely short-sighted so I doubt he had chosen that tactic.

[Akonyl]

out of curiosity, why is it 99% that xpon's identity was wrong? Short of the dream claiming he was ayumi or your role, it would be just as likely the dream was wrong about him as it is about holmes wouldn't it?

The dream said he is a town role. If he is BO trying to confuse us then it means my dream about him was wrong, which means one of the other roles must be right.
If he is Sherry then it means my dream about him was wrong as well. Again, this increases the chances of each of the remaining 4 to 25%.
The remaining 1% is xpon claiming to be Haibara while being another town role. In which case I hope he realizes what mess his acting brought us in. And himself, since he will fail to prove his role this day. But that would have been extremely short-sighted so I doubt he had chosen that tactic.

alright, I see what you mean now because I read it wrong in the first place, and yeah I guess that's true that it makes the probabilities of the others being true approximately 25%. However I'm still not sure why you're saying that this makes xpon any less suspicious (if you are, but maybe I'm reading this wrong too, in which case sorry ), as all it means is that he isn't that town role that the dream claims (which wasn't really part of the discussion anyway, it was whether he was haibara or a bo member). And excluding him from the possible choices only increases the chance of each person's info being right in the dream from 20% to 25%, which really isn't that much of an increase at all.

[pofa]

and conia, pofa's post makes me wonder, does the presence of 1 detective boy mean that there's at least one other?

Since only 1 DB in the game is extremely underpowered, what I did was: while picking roles, if there was at least 1 DB by the end, I'll randomly pick a player to be another DB.
So, it is like pofa claims (There can also be 3 DBs, but that it's just random and very lucky)

Good, that's what I was hoping.  :)

alrighty then, a few things:
1) maybe I missed it but I don't know why xpon thinks holmes is so suspicious anyway
2) I like how schillok included himself in his deduction of why he could be mafia (which is sorta like xpon's vermouth thing, but that's beside the point for now)
3) I like how schillok didn't include me in his deduction, even though I'm basically the guy who started the accusation (although pofa did later).

1. I assumed it was because Holmes was one of the ones who "took his bait" and tried to get him lynched, but maybe he has something else.
2. Well, to be fair, all of us who try to get anyone lynched could be mafia. He's just trying to innoculate the jury. Although it doesn't mean he's not BO.
3. Yeah, I wondered about that, too. I figured something must have been going on via PM.

as to letting xpon survive the day I'm not exactly sure how much that would help.
a) We'd need to lynch someone else today, who unless we have someone else as suspicious as xpon lined up we would probably be killing a townie.
b1) if xpon is sherry, holmes is BO: xpon follows, gets a scent, we lynch holmes day 2 and then sherry's dead with poison without having the chance to follow anyone else.
b2) if xpon is BO, holmes is townie: xpon claims to get a scent, we lynch holmes day 2 and find out we were tricked, and lynch xpon on day 3.
b3) if xpon is sherry, holmes is townie: xpon follows, says he got no scent, we lynch someone else day 2 and sherry's poisoned.
b4) if xpon is BO, holmes is BO: then this outcome depends entirely on what plan they set up but it isn't good.

So in scenarios 1 and 2, it's a 1 bo for 2 townie death (counting the random lynching we have today), which isn't very beneficial, and in scenario 3 and 4 we don't get any BO info at all and we just lynch other random townies (unless in plan 4 they sell out holmes). Unless I'm missing something there?

also regarding killing haibara (being killing a strong character), keep in mind that the role's been changed a lot since its first form (like eisuke did too, indirectly), as she's only able to do it during the day now, and if she gets a positive result she can't use it the next day. So basically she's very similar to the interrogators, although she can't be slandered (although akai/okiya scents and anokata's lack of one are sort of like slandering in that it gives equally unreliable results). So, I'm not really sure how good she is, compared to the other detective roles.

a. Given Shcillok's post, Holmes seems like a good bet, unless he says something really convincing in his defense. We don't have a role to check tonight for him like we do with xpon.
b1-b3. Yes, there are a lot of ways for it to go wrong, but xpon has already revealed himself. I think that makes the "he'll just get poisoned if he gives us info" argument moot. If he's a townie, he's lost anyway: with the APTX in play, he probably won't live much longer. If we don't lynch him, he'll most likely get killed or poisoned soon. We may as well use him before he dies. Following one person before he dies is better than following none.

Haibara is still pretty strong, because she's a day ability and can't be tricked or slandered. But that's not the point--if we've got a solid lead (xpon is haibara), why cut it off before it gives us all the info it can?

I guess there's no reason to trust that Schillok didn't make up the dream. We can investigate that more slowly (Schillok, if you're willing, I'd be interested in knowing what role your dream said I was over PM). But if there's a chance to take Korn, a sniper, out, I like that idea better than going after a possible Haibara.

[xGinx]

I'd like to know what role i have in your dream too

Just curiosity .... we'll be able to estimate the posibilities of the others roles being true or false if you tell us all about your dream

[pofa]

I don't think you were in the dream, xGinx. 
He listed Kleene, Commi-Ninja, xpon, Holmes, and me.

He doesn't want to reveal everything on the open thread to avoid making people BO targets.

[Holmes]

Well, best option would be a tie. But that's hard to achieve imo. (but I hope for that)
And like I already said, a dream could be a good clue too.

Ohh well... I guess I have made myself a big enough target already. So no reason to keep it a secret. I had a dream this night.

To make it short: Kleene(*town*),Commi-Ninja(*town*),xpon(*town, but not Haibara*),Holmes(Korn) and pofa(*town*)

So yeah, I had my reasons why I wanted Holmes as a target for xpon.
Just in case anyone is wondering, I have kept the roles of the other players secret, for obvious reasons.

So since it is 99% sure that xpons identity was wrong that leaves a 25% chance that Holmes is really Korn. Even if the remaining 75% are true and he is not Korn he has the same chance of being another BO member as any other player. So he is actually the best target we have.

As I said, I originally wanted xpon to find that out. But... maybe let's change the plan. If there is still time for that.


So I suggest the new plan:
Vote for Holmes. [To be honest his lack of cooperation made him even more suspicious to me.]

xpon, if you get back before the deadline: Follow Kleene instead.

Kleene, you tell us next night if you were followed. Or not. Depending on that the steps for the night will be planed

If there is a Detective Boy left: Can you find out if xpon is really Sherry like he claim to be? Depending on the results he and Kleene report we might need your feedback.

You said it yourself sir/madam, I don´t trust any of you.
Another point: I´ve never said I wouldn´t cooperate.
Third point: I have a whole day school, so bare it with me.

[Akonyl]

1. I assumed it was because Holmes was one of the ones who "took his bait" and tried to get him lynched, but maybe he has something else.
2. Well, to be fair, all of us who try to get anyone lynched could be mafia. He's just trying to innoculate the jury. Although it doesn't mean he's not BO.
3. Yeah, I wondered about that, too. I figured something must have been going on via PM.

1. If that's the case I still don't see why he accused holmes over me, so I'm still confused on that point.
2. I suppose.
3. Nah, apparently I'm just too lovable for most people or something.

a. Given Shcillok's post, Holmes seems like a good bet, unless he says something really convincing in his defense. We don't have a role to check tonight for him like we do with xpon.
b1-b3. Yes, there are a lot of ways for it to go wrong, but xpon has already revealed himself. I think that makes the "he'll just get poisoned if he gives us info" argument moot. If he's a townie, he's lost anyway: with the APTX in play, he probably won't live much longer. If we don't lynch him, he'll most likely get killed or poisoned soon. We may as well use him before he dies. Following one person before he dies is better than following none.

Haibara is still pretty strong, because she's a day ability and can't be tricked or slandered. But that's not the point--if we've got a solid lead (xpon is haibara), why cut it off before it gives us all the info it can?

this made an idea pop into my head, although it seems sort of an odd suggestion. On the chance that xpon is haibara, and we lynch her, the overall town death would be lower than if we lynched another townie (as if we lynched someone else haibara would be poisoned eventually anyway). So if he is BO, everything's fine and dandy, but if he isn't, the long-run damage will be less than if we lynch someone else who turns out not to be BO.

(though this is also probably me being stubborn like game 2 day 1 where I ended up lynching abs horribly, but my hunches are still saying that I should lynch xpon)

I guess there's no reason to trust that Schillok didn't make up the dream. We can investigate that more slowly (Schillok, if you're willing, I'd be interested in knowing what role your dream said I was over PM). But if there's a chance to take Korn, a sniper, out, I like that idea better than going after a possible Haibara.

although I guess that would help you and other people in the dream for your own info, even if you say "yep, the dream was wrong about my role, that makes other people more likely", there's not much reason to believe anyone saying that as if you say "oh yeah the dream was right about me", you're opening yourself up to aptx by schillok, making it possible for anyone to say that the dream was wrong about them and have a valid reason.

hum.

[pofa]

No, it's just for my own info, since we're thinking about lynching Holmes. If he doesn't turn out to be BO (or if we lynch xpon and he's Haibara), I can further narrow down the dream by knowing if it was right or wrong about me. Even if Schillok answers me, I won't say anything on the thread about it.  At least not for a few days.