ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Spies & Informants Win)

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Togop

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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Togop »

shinichi'sapprentice wrote:and yeah, Jd- already said it, but because of this vain strategy you guys initiated, it's day 1 all over again.
Actually, the fact that nobody get killed is not a bad thing; neither is the fact that we didn't arrest a (probably) civillian. While in terms of information, at least I have a lot more now that I had at the end of prep phase. At least for me, the way different people reacted to this strategy was a lot more informative than random voting would have been.

For example, as I suggested it, the strategy involved a nomination process which was supposed to give extra information to the detective. Jd- saw it fit to stop that nomination process. While he pointed out a valid reason, he could have waited to see some more nominations before stopping them, but he didn't. I'd like to hear why.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Iwamoto Yuri »

Togop wrote:Yuri, should the GM really point out things like that?
* Yuri presses a finger against Togop's lips *
shhhh :V
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Fujiwara
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Fujiwara »

Great that the tie actually worked out. I didn't expect for no one to die though ... but so much the better. ^^
Togop wrote:Jd-, it's unlikely that the spy team voted, but didn't kill due to inactivity.
Exactly what I was going to say. XD

And the only team that self-voted, shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth, actually announced that they were going to do so beforehand, so their self-vote certainly didn't happen due to inactivity. Which leaves us with no good explanation as to why the spy team didn't kill.
shinichi'sapprentice wrote: and yeah, Jd- already said it, but because of this vain strategy you guys initiated, it's day 1 all over again.
As Togop already pointed out, this is more like a new and improved Day 1 in my eyes. We're still all here, but there has been a lot of discussion, a vote, and the non-kill also tells us something about the spy, even if I'm not yet sure what. I certainly consider the situation better than on Day 1: We have more info with no losses at all. Think about that.

Moreover, I was really glad to see that an initiative like this between several civilians can work. In the end, it is advantageous to the civilians + detective to be organized, while it's advantageous to the spy + informant if we're unorganized. So thanks to everyone who made this tie possible!
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shinichi'sapprentice
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by shinichi'sapprentice »

the objective of the proposed strategy is to "avoid" arresting the detective, and abstain from making unnecessary arrests.
the spies killing nobody in day 1 should be the one that is acknowledged-- the one that we should be thankful for, and not the result of the tie voting. if one of the two nominated teams end up being the opponent, then they will receive an applause from me at the end of this round. and if they just happened to be concerned citizenscivilians aiming for a different approach in catching the perpetrators of this round, then i ask you why? if you really are innocent, i don't see why volunteering in nominating yourselves help. i can't keep myself from thinking that you are just doing this to play safe.


↑my intended post, Fujiwara posted before this post and i want to reply to that instead. i already typed the above and i feel my effort wasted -.-↑

anyway, i still don't see how the tie voting helped give info to the detectives.

and because of Fujiwara's last post, i want to rephrase what i said:

"It's day 1 all over again. Only better, or is it?"

yeah, yeah. no losses, but no definitive gain too.
Fujiwara wrote:
Moreover, I was really glad to see that an initiative like this between several civilians can work. In the end, it is advantageous to the civilians + detective to be organized, while it's advantageous to the spy + informant if we're unorganized. So thanks to everyone who made this tie possible!
how can you be so sure that the people that went with this are definitely civilians.
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Togop

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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Togop »

shinichi'sapprentice wrote:yeah, yeah. no losses, but no definitive gain too.
I don't see what we'd have gained if we random-voted instead of arranging a tie. That would have revealed less information and would probably have resulted in a civillian death.
Fujiwara wrote:
Moreover, I was really glad to see that an initiative like this between several civilians can work. In the end, it is advantageous to the civilians + detective to be organized, while it's advantageous to the spy + informant if we're unorganized. So thanks to everyone who made this tie possible!
how can you be so sure that the people that went with this are definitely civilians.[/quote]

We can't, of course. I've also considered that being amongst the tied teams would be dangerous for the spy, but also provides a good cover. Which is why in my initial version of the plan we would nominate the two teams to vote for and not ask for their agreement - in this way the spy couldn't use that as cover. Jd-'s proposal changed that.

As such, I consider it possible that Jd-/KL are the informants and Fuji/Raifu (or me/CC) - the spies. I wanted to delay raising that particular reasoning for a while, can called Jd- on the fact that he stopped the nomination process. Anyway, I felt that I should say it in response to this post of yours. And I'd like to hear Jd-'s comment.

Shinichi'sapprentice, I believe then the question you have is why did I go along with Jd-'s proposal? I felt like actually achieving a tie would be better than arguing with Jd- at that point.
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Jd-
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Jd- »

Firstly, I think dumytru is owed a debt of gratitude, because without him, that strategy probably would've turned out really badly. So, much thanks to him for saving it at the last minute.
Togop wrote:Jd-, it's unlikely that the spy team voted, but didn't kill due to inactivity. I, at least, would do that in the same message. The only team that self-voted was shinichi'sapprentice and googleearth. It is also possible the spy wanted to divert suspicion away or hasn't identified the informant.
Actually, I don't think it's really as easy as that. Deciding which team to kill in a game with so few teams is something that both team members would want to add input on, so I don't think just one of the team members would be handling it. Sending in a random vote with a "we'll decide who to kill based on how the topic goes" sort of thing seems likely to me, with them just losing track of the timezone and countdown to phase ending in the meantime. At least, that's just how it seems to me. It's different when it's just you, but as you can see from most of the teams here, everyone wants to get their teammate's input on their actions. I can very easily envision the Spy team saying, "Let's vote for X & Y temporarily just so we don't accidentally vote and then send in the kill later after we see how the topic's going."
Togop wrote:Actually, the fact that nobody get killed is not a bad thing; neither is the fact that we didn't arrest a (probably) civillian. While in terms of information, at least I have a lot more now that I had at the end of prep phase. At least for me, the way different people reacted to this strategy was a lot more informative than random voting would have been.

For example, as I suggested it, the strategy involved a nomination process which was supposed to give extra information to the detective. Jd- saw it fit to stop that nomination process. While he pointed out a valid reason, he could have waited to see some more nominations before stopping them, but he didn't. I'd like to hear why.
As Monk would say, "Here's the thing": Putting the quieter users not up for mere nomination but in a situation where they could very easily get knocked out of the game is something that is going to create a lot of distrust and strife the second it didn't work. The reason it's a lot better to involve people who are actually discussing such a strategy is pretty simple: Those people actually have reason to see it through and ensure a tie happens. If the Spy team hijacks such a strategy, such as if Fujiwara/Raifuujin were the Spies, they could ensure that their targets were arrested while making it seem like an innocent mistake.

If you look at how that almost turned out, I was right. If it had not been for dumytru at the very end, one of the teams would've definitely been arrested. Now, if you take away the incentive for at least two of those votes (yours & Fuji/Rai), there would have been a lot less coverage here in the topic and it's almost certain that someone would've actually been arrested. This way, everyone involved was motivated to ensure it worked instead of just leaving it to chance.
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shinichi'sapprentice
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by shinichi'sapprentice »

Togop wrote: I don't see what we'd have gained if we random-voted instead of arranging a tie. That would have revealed less information and would probably have resulted in a civillian death.
this:
Kleene Onigiri wrote:1/9 + 1/11 = 11/99 + 9/99 = 20/99 <= 20%

But your calculation is wrong imo, or more like, doesn't show what random voting actually affects. Since the spy will kill someone anyway, meaning the 1/9 chance that the detective dies after the first phase is there anyway. Which you doesn't really need to consider, since that won't change whether you vote randomly or not.
Also, in your calculation, the detective dies 2x :x One for getting voted (1/11) and once getting killed by the spy (1/9) :x Which you can't add up just like that.

So instead, you'll only consider what happens when we random vote. Since the kill from the spy happens anyway and you can't prevent it (as long as the spy sends in an action).
Now, you could say there is 1/11 chance that someone actually get's lynched and it happens to be the detective. But it's actually lower than 1/11. Because a tie could also randomly happen which would mean that no one was arrested. (but calculating it exactly would be too much work now :x). So there is less than a 9% chance (probably more like 6%) that the detective would be arrested because of random voting. Which doesn't sound so big anymore.

Still, trying to go for a tie could be nice :D but that would mean that the spy and informant also do that :x
what are we really avoiding here? arresting the detective? or losing a civilian?

and how do you actually define random voting? is it voting someone on their own accord? if it is, i guess that's what you call what i've been doing since round 1.

and what do you think is the basis of their 'random voting'? is it going by the list? or not going by the list? if it's going by the list, then random voting actually helps the detective more. and not just them. the civilians too. the random voters' votes actually reveals someone from their list. THAT is a DEFINITIVE INFO, and could be used to compare lists with other civilians.

unlike forcing someone to vote for someone, it can be implied that random voters vote people based on their list. getting into alliance such as in the tie voting strategy is risky. since one cannot say that someone is in their list as basis for who they nominate.

---

and now what? are you guys going for a tie vote again until the spy finally kills?
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Conan-chandesune
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Conan-chandesune »

I dont know what to think...... Jd- sama could be the spy... but we cant afford losing him if he isnt. So could the detective please investigate him and KL???
Also, shinichi'sapprentice, being a Maths Major myself, the probablility for either the informants or the spy being arrested were 2/11, whereas the detective getting arrested or killed were 19/99, kid. Random voting was the way to go and now, i think we should form an alliance and nominate others, but have valid reasons. For now, i have none.
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Jd-
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Jd- »

This is definitely the most math I've ever seen in any forum game, ever, for sure. I'm not especially mathematically-minded (read: not at all), so I'll have to leave that to the rest of you.

Unlike the last round, we don't really have such a thing as expendable civilian players, and we definitely need to be careful with wasting any Investigates. KL and I don't mind being investigated, but I would honestly suggest directing it elsewhere to give us a better chance at finding the Spies sooner. All in all, we'll have to leave that to the Detectives to decide.
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by shinichi'sapprentice »

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was i just called a kid?

since when did this become a game of probability.

"Probability is Just a Guide
Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it is just a guide1"

1http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html

--

anyway, even if the detectives investigate someone, it's not like they can directly tell you that the investigated team was innocent.
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Iwamoto Yuri
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Iwamoto Yuri »

Now now, y'all be nice there...
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Memesu

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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Memesu »

That was nice coincidence :x
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Kleene Onigiri
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by Kleene Onigiri »

Conan-chandesune wrote:I dont know what to think...... Jd- sama could be the spy... but we cant afford losing him if he isnt. So could the detective please investigate him and KL???
Also, shinichi'sapprentice, being a Maths Major myself, the probablility for either the informants or the spy being arrested were 2/11, whereas the detective getting arrested or killed were 19/99, kid. Random voting was the way to go and now, i think we should form an alliance and nominate others, but have valid reasons. For now, i have none.

If you're really a maths major then you should know it's not just 19/99, since you need to count in all possibilities of a tie happening and not a tie happening. Which you obviously didn't do. Kid.

And just what shinichi's apprentice said, it's just probability. And it just works if it's REAL random too.
And we don't have real random in out random votes, because we have the lists. Which makes us more likely or less likely to vote the detective, depending on how the lists are (more detectives on this rounds lists or less detective on this rounds lists, it's possible that there is only the spy on each list too)
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Kleene Onigiri
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Prep Phase Starts!)

Post by Kleene Onigiri »

Math ahead, skip my post if you don't care about that anyway 8D

Fujiwara wrote:Well, it's certainly getting very lively now. :D
Kleene Onigiri wrote: Also, in your calculation, the detective dies 2x :x One for getting voted (1/11) and once getting killed by the spy (1/9) :x Which you can't add up just like that.
Ah, you're right. It's been a while since I did this sort of stuff. The calculation for non-mutually exclusive events is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Which means I'd have to amend my calculation as follows:
P(arrest or kill) = 1/11 + 1/9 - 1/99 = 19/99 = 19%
I just noticed, you're calculating P(A and B) = P(A) * P (B)? But you can't do that, since P(A) and P(B) need to be independent, which isn't the case here (as long as you don't throw the arrested detective back into the "Team pool" and let him get a killed too XD)

I think you need the Bayes formula... but that would be way too much to calculate :V (at least I dun feel like it XD)
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Re: ESPIONAGE: Round Three (Day Two Starts!)

Post by shinichi'sapprentice »

Meme wrote:That was nice coincidence :x
what is?

--
Kleene Onigiri wrote:
If you're really a maths major then you should know it's not just 19/99, since you need to count in all possibilities of a tie happening and not a tie happening. Which you obviously didn't do. Kid.
oh! yeah, i just want to quote that.

--

more math talks! how 'bout let's start some discussions?
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